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Why Standard Flu Vaccines Won’t Make Investors Rich

Contrarian Profits (May 5th, 2009) Writes:

A more recent addition to my transformational technologies portfolio, Medarex (NASDAQ:MEDX), has scored a huge win. The company, along with Massachusetts Biologic Laboratory, will get $60 million upfront from Merck (NYSE:MRK) for license rights to a monoclonal antibody that apparently cures C. difficile infection. They are eligible for another $165 million in milestones as well as royalties.

Think about the service this company has done mankind. C. diff, as hospital diarrhea is called, is a growing cause of hospital deaths. Though many cases outside of hospitals are never diagnosed, we know it kills at least 30,000 Americans annually. Those who do recover, about 9 out of ten, can suffer horribly for months. Bravo to Medarex and all those who made this breakthrough possible by investing your money in this incredibly worth effort.

So what does this have to do with swine flu?

So far, swine flu is a minor problem compared

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Black Swans and Dead Pigs – Why Swine Flu Is No Joke

Justice Litle (May 5th, 2009) Writes:

As the markets would tell it, the swine flu epidemic is little more than a tempest in a teacup. But, sad to say, the danger here remains far greater than it seems…

Before we begin, a word in honor of Monday’s stage-five rocket launch of a rally. Or should I say, rally on top of rally.

As a caveat, these words are being written some two hours and change before market close. Regardless of where that close may be, however, it simply must be said – watching what seemed to be nearly every risk-related asset in the world catch a gigantic bid simultaneously was, in a word, awesome.

(Your humble editor was so transfixed by the sight, he felt verbally transported back to his seventh-grade skateboarding days.)

The world, it seems, is pounding the table for a V-shaped recovery. Maybe even a slightly leftward-tilting V, to

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Bears vs. Bulls: What About the Pigs?

Andrew Snyder (May 4th, 2009) Writes:

Even with the hype of a possible flu pandemic, the markets managed to remain positive through the week. Mexico will take the lead as we make the next critical move next week.

As a guy that has spent way too much time in rough water, I absolutely detest the clichéd phrase “a perfect storm,” but when it is apt I cannot help but use it. So here goes. This week has been a perfect storm for Mexican investors.  It physically hurt to write that sentence.

As if a bloody and growing drug war was not enough, Mother Nature threw Mexico a deadly flu outbreak and a 6.0 earthquake earlier this week. It was enough to force investors to flee back across the border.

Hard hit were the country’s pig producers like Smithfield Foods (NYSE:SFD), its cement makers like Cemex (NYSE:CX) and of course, its airports like Pacific Airport

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Market Moves Will Remain on Hold Until Bank Stress Test Results Are Released Thursday

Contrarian Profits (May 4th, 2009) Writes:

Barring some dramatic – and unforeseen – news this week, expect investors to tread water until Thursday, when the government is expected to release the results of the bank stress tests it conducted on the 19 largest U.S. banks.

The stress-test results are expected to show that the 19 banks may have to raise between $100 billion to $150 billion – or even more – in new capital. Investors will cause the shares of the strong players to zoom northward, and will likely savage the shares of the weakest players.

“I can’t think of a time since I’ve been watching banks when there’s been so much uncertainty about the true value of a key set of assets,” Douglas Elliott, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, told Reuters.

The U.S. bank stress tests have transfixed the world financial markets for weeks, exacerbating the ongoing financial crisis – worsening the U.S.

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Mexican Airports Post-Outbreak – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (May 4th, 2009) Writes:
Highlights include Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC), Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (OMAB) and Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR).Despite the cautious remarks from the World Health Organization (WHO), there are some signs of hope in controlling the H1N1 ("swine") flu. According to some reports from the Mexican government, the number of new cases is declining, and the peak of the contamination process was between April 23 and 28. According to Richard Besser, interim director of the Center of Desease Control in the U.S., the swine flu does not appear to be more aggressive than the normal flu.Maybe it is too early to state that the swine flu problem is over. However, it seems that the initial hysteria is calming down. Considering the more benign situation, we see no reason to change our current Hold recommendation on Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC) and ...

Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (April 27 – May 3, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (May 3rd, 2009) Writes:

“Goodbye safe havens, hello risky assets.” This was the refrain of investors’ theme song during the past week. Safe-haven assets were out of favor as better-than-feared corporate earnings and signs of a budding economic recovery emboldened investors’ appetite for reflation trades such as equities and commodities.

Investors’ sentiment improved notwithstanding a number of influences that could potentially disturb financial markets. These included a three-day delay in the release of the stress test results of the 19 biggest US banks until May 7, the plight of the beleaguered US automakers with General Motors (GM) proposing a sweeping debt-for-equity restructuring and Chrysler filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and fears of an escalation in the number of swine flu (H1N1) cases.

2-mei-v1.jpg

Source: Vita

As to be expected given the countless catalysts, the past week’s trading was bumpy, but the major

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Seeds of a Recovery?

Dirk Van Dijk (May 1st, 2009) Writes:

The initial first-quarter GDP reported was greeted with a great amount of fanfare, despite a terrible headline number. Though the economy contracted at a 6.1% pace - marking the first time we have booked back to back quarters of down 6% or more since the end of WWII - some of the details in the report showed reasons for optimism.

As an investor, I realize that you are less concerned with the details that economists seemingly over-analyze and more concerned with what the report means to your portfolio. So, today, I'm going to show you where some of the investment opportunities and risks lie in the current environment.

Consumers Opened Their Wallets

The biggest positive surprise in the report was that Personal Consumption Expenditures ("PCE") actually contributed 1.50 points to GDP.

Clearly, in the first quarter, consumers took advantage of discounted

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Gilead to Benefit from Tamiflu Orders – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (May 1st, 2009) Writes:
We highlight Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) and Roche Holding Ltd. (RHHBY).On April 30, 2009, U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Kathleen Sebelius announced that the government would quickly look to re-stock the 12 million doses of Tamiflu released earlier in the week to combat the H1N1 (swine flu) virus.Over the past few years the CDC (Centers for Disease Control) has kept a stockpile of about 50 million doses of the antiviral drug, Tamiflu (oseltamivir), on hand specifically to combat pandemic spreading of the flu virus. The policy came into effect on fears that the H5N1 (avian flu) virus was becoming a global pandemic in 2005.Previously, stockpiling the drug was not possible because Tamiflu, manufactured by Roche Pharmaceuticals (RHHBY), had a shelf-life of only about 1 year. Plus, Roche had significant capacity constraints on the drug and was only able to ...

Video-o-rama: Investors “look past the valley”

Prieur du Plessis (May 1st, 2009) Writes:

As the financial markets await the bank stress test results in the US, a potpourri of video clips was produced. Although the discussions were varied, a golden thread prevailed: the duration of the financial crisis and the economic recession, and whether stock markets have hit bottom.

Needless to say, the plight of the beleaguered automakers and fears of an escalation in the number of swine flu cases also captured the attention of battle-weary investors. However, the S&P 500 Index rallied to a gain of 9.4% for April - representing its best monthly advance since March 2000 - and US Treasury yields jumped to levels last seen in November as investors “looked past the valley”.

Commentators featured on camera in this post include Simon Johnson, Michael Perino, Jim Walker, Steve Forbes, Christopher Whalen, Joseph Stiglitz, Marc Faber, Bill Ackman, Paul Kasriel, James Galbraith, Paul

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The Media Is In “Flu Frenzy”… Here’s How To Invest Amid A Panic

Contrarian Profits (April 30th, 2009) Writes:

While swine flu is spreading and certainly has potential to become a very serious situation (as does any flu outbreak) if it continues, comparatively speaking, that isn’t the case at the moment.

Consider that the mortality rate of this flu is significantly lower than other outbreaks. For example, avian flu killed 61% of infected patients. The SARS death rate was 10%. And so far, swine flu has resulted in deaths of 7% of patients.

And then there’s “normal,” everyday flu, which causes the death of between 250,000 and 500,000 people around the world each year. Roughly 36,000 of those are Americans. And so far this year, approximately 12,000 Americans have already died from “normal” flu.

But the media machine doesn’t talk about that…

Crank Up The Hype Machine

The media is doing what it usually does - over-hyping the issue and whipping everyone into a panic. Face masks and hand sanitizers are flying off the

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