Dear Investor,

Do you have a big-picture market outlook?

If you can’t define – or even worse – don’t have …

A reader left a question that I think is pretty damn good. He asked "what are the variables that I use that allow you to do a forward analysis of an asset with any meaningful probability of being right." As someone who believes in top down management I focus on big picture issues and then try to figure the best way to invest toward the big picture while at the same time building in some sort of counter strategy in case my assessment is wrong. So instead of looking at a stock from the bottom up and saying ok, here is a stock with such and such valuations that will make more widgets next year for a slightly smaller cost and buying it, top down looks at the world for things like supply and demand issues, turning points in cycles or big long-lasting themes as examples. The world ...

The Western Union Company (NYSE: WU) shares are on the rise – up 15% in the last 3 months. The debt markets are in a panic, and the mortgage industry has all but evaporated like the foam in your freshly poured beer. But money-transfer kingpin Western Union scoffs at the rest of the pitiful companies in the financial sector. Here’s why WU’s biggest growth segment is International. In fact, International revenue and volume surged 19% in Q1, helped by rapid growth in China and India and improved business in Mexico. Also, Management bought back 14 million shares for nearly $300 million during the quarter. In 2007, the company spent a crazy amount of money - purchasing more than $700 million worth of ...

Insurance is a durable business. No professional enterprise can do without it, in good times and bad. Insurance is also a vital form of security for stock investors. There are abundant and compelling reasons to favor stocks in the insurance business when markets are depressed, under cost pressures, or with uncertain demand trends.

Insurance spawns other enterprises, just like most industries. The entities from which retail customers buy insurance are reluctant to take full risks on their own shoulders. There are other financial benefits in reinsurance as well. However, the reinsurance industry is subject to the kinds of derivative risks from which the stock exchange world has suffered since September 2007.

The insurance business also requires the management of claims. This service, unlike reinsurance, costs little to run, is isolated from risk, and adds significant values. The business model of this small capital member of the Insurance (Miscellaneous) Industry from Atlanta, GA,

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MarketWatch bullish pundit states: “…if it weren’t for the financial news, the market would be doing pretty well right now.” And, he added, “In the bigger picture technology has less exposure to the financial issue going on, and people are still optimistic for a recovery of some degree.”

Bernanke chimed in with more “happy talk” saying that the economy has dealt with the oil price shock comparatively well. How are you folks dealing with it?

You know, being a pundit or a Fed chairman for that matter, is tough work. I don’t think I’d like to be called on to forecast anything.

Volume is picking up again and breadth is mixed with the NASDQ positive with big tech names leading once again. [Dave’s Daily reader Giorgio was kind enough to help the old Fryguy out with this suggestion–Barchart in lieu …

My recent post about Plum Creek Timber, client holding, was re-run on Seeking Alpha and a reader left the name of a stock I had never heard of before; Timberwest Forest (TWF-UN.TO in Canada and TWTUF on the pink sheets).Timberwest is one of these Canada listed products that ties in with some sort of resource and pays an enormous dividend, the hydro funds fall into this category.The chart goes back a year and compares Timberwest with Plum Creek Timber and Macquarie Infrastructure (MIC), which is also a client holding. Timberwest and Plum Creek are obviously both timber companies and Timberwest and MIC are both not so simply constructed businesses with high dividend payouts.An investor who bought MIC or Timberwest at the wrong time may not have necessarily known that this sort of stock would ...

Wachovia Corporation  (NYSE:WB) is 25 Cents from its 52-week low and Washington Mutual, Inc.  (NYSE:WM) is just 5 Cents away.  The Financial sector is going down in flames, but the world is not ending. Buy these stocks at a discount, should these stocks fall another $1 or less.  Wachovia's CEO is now gone and WaMu's Killinger is almost out the door. These stocks have to ...

Today was a replay of yesterday with bulls doing more news cherry-picking [Durable Goods orders better than expected] while buying toward the close again perhaps from the same unknown source.

Don’t ya love headline writers? This one’s from MarketWatch.

Anyway, volume remains sluggish and breadth unimpressive.

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