Let China’s Middle Class Lead You Into Luxury

Tony Daltorio, Investment U Research

According to the World Bank, the global middle class could grow to 1.15 billion in 2030 – a huge jump from the 430 million middle class folks in 2000.

Driving the extraordinary growth is… you guessed it, the emerging “BRIC” nations. In 2000, developing countries like China, Brazil and India accounted for 56% of that number. But by 2030, analysts expect it to climb as high as 93%… with China alone accounting for 52% of the expected increase.

This represents a tremendous amount of wealth. A Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) executive compared it to adding a city the size of New York to the world… every three months.

Needless to say, that opens up amazing opportunities. But in order to succeed, companies who want to profit from this

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Recently I had the opportunity to meet with one of the most excitable options traders and educators in Las Vegas…his name is Mark Longo and he’s the founder and main options guy at TheOptionsInsider.com. I was able to spend about 45 minutes just chatting with him about what’s going on in the options world, what’s new with his site, and everything he said about options made perfect sense. Almost as if he actually knew what he was talking about! Come to find out later in the conversation he knew what he was talking about, and he’s an authority on options…egg on my face! TheOptionsInsider.com is a great FREE resource for all things options and with Mark at the helm you won’t be led astray. Please enjoy the article (as I read it twice), comment below, and visit TheOptionsInsider.com today!

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We are seeing a familiar refrain in

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Profiting From Oil – Peak or Not

Tony Daltorio, The Investment U Research Team

It seems like the only times that the financial media talks about oil is when they mention either demand destruction in the United States or an inventory buildup of fuel, etc. in the United States.

The financial media is doing a real disservice to millions of investors in two ways.

The first is by ignoring the rest of the globe when it comes to demand for oil. For example, China imported a record amount of oil in July – 4.6 million barrels a day, up 42% from last July.

This record monthly figure is well above the previous peak of 4.1 million barrels of oil a day set in March 2008, when the financial media said that China was simply stockpiling oil ahead of the Olympics.

The second

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Tuesday July 28, 2009

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Some of China’s stockpiling may well have been due to speculative excess, rather than any rational plan on the ground. That realization played a role in the market carnage seen this week.

As Grant’s Interest Rate Observer has been known to say, “We wrote it. Did you read it?”

My slim hope is that the Chinese really and truly know what they are doing, because, in fueling investor optimism with such flair, they are playing a high stakes game. My worry is that they drop the ball, somehow, and the result shows up as a violent wake-up call for “high beta” assets… emerging market equities, energy, commodities and the like.

What happens next is far from clear. The huge [commodity] stockpiles could continue to grow at a breathtaking pace – after all, Beijing has plenty of greenbacks to work

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The insatiable hunger for stories motivates financial media.  At the first hint of a new development the process begins -- hard news, analysis, critics, and long-term effects.  The cycle is so fast that we sometimes get the criticism before most have digested the original news. This is the nature of a highly competitive news environment where everyone wants to get a scoop.  It is completely understandable both for mainstream media and for bloggers who all want to weigh in on the story of the day. Is this a useful time frame for market participants? For traders, the answer might be "yes."  There will be opinions and reactions.  Anyone who can "game" the market reaction may make a point or two in trading profits. For investors, we believe the answer is "no."  The initial, knee-jerk reaction may have nothing to do with the actual investment potential.  ...

OK, the financial press spin in favor of "green shoots" is getting absurd. The AP headline on the story about the Fed Beige Book reads: "Fed survey sees signs recession is easing." Did the reporter even bother to read the report, or did he write the headline first to show what he wanted the report to show, not what it actually said?Here is the link to the whole beige book, and a few key sections (with my comments in between paragraphs):"Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve District Banks indicate that economic conditions remained weak or deteriorated further during the period from mid-April through May. However, five of the Districts noted that the downward trend is showing signs of moderating. Further, contacts from several Districts said that their expectations have improved, though they do not see a substantial increase in economic activity through the ...

MARKET COMMENT June 3, 2009 Some have predicted a “Zombie Summer” which might be right as investors await proof that a real economic recovery is in the offing. But, just when you thought they might break this camp job they’ve been working on we got the obligatory “stick save” into the close. Evidently job losses were “worse than expected” and some noted bulls thought the market was expensive which is pretty funny since most of the financial media still report PEs incorrectly. Bloomberg, which should know better, has PEs at 15 for the S&P 500 by using operating earnings which omits unusual items (losses and writedowns?) making stocks look cheaper than they are if just using GAAP trailing earnings. The latter would put PEs at astronomical levels greater than 30. So as things go it’s however TPTB want ...

If the pattern of the ’30s holds, we won’t see the stock market bottom until 2011.

When we left three weeks ago, it was cold and rainy in Europe…and the world was in the midst of a terrible financial crisis.

But now we’re back…and everything has changed. The trees along the Boulevard de la Villette have leafed out. Flowers are in bloom. People are sitting at sidewalk cafes. Life seems to be returning to normal. As expected, the financial world seems to be walking with a lighter step. It feels the sun on its face…and guesses that the long winter is behind it.

“Encouraging signs” are everywhere, says Le Monde. In fact, all the news reports say they see them. Consumer sentiment isn’t as bad as it used to be. Stocks are rising. The banks are back in business.

“How to profit from the recovery,” says one headline.

“Stocks point to end of downturn,”

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Here we go again…The market had its best week since November. And just like that, there is chatter of light at the end of the tunnel.

Could the market actually be bottoming or near bottoming? Could the economy be showing signs of recovery?

Sorry. It’s going to take a lot more than consumer confidence edging up in March. I want to see…

Manufacturing increasing. It went down by 18 percent last quarter. I guarantee you that it’ll keep going down next quarter. Non-defense capital orders increasing. They went down 5.7% in January. Productivity increasing. It went down in the fourth quarter. Too many workers standing around doing nothing as plants ratchet down production. Auto sales increasing. GM, Ford and Chrysler suffered through another month of sales falling 41 percent compared to this time last year. Retail sales increasing. They dropped “only” 0.1 percent in February – hailed as a sign of better things to come by several ...