The BEA released the end-2007 International Investment Position data on June 27. Several observations: As in recent years, the NIIP to GDP ratio continues to deteriorate. However, the NIIP to GDP ratio as of end-2007 is improved relative to the originally reported end-2006 NIIP/GDP ratio. In the last year, the dollar change in the NIIP deviates substantially (i.e., is more positive) than the corresponding current account reported on a NIPA basis. This repeats the pattern from the previous five years. Interestingly, 2005 stands out by far as an outlier, wherein the the NIIP improves while the CA is in substantial deficit. There appears to be a measurable correlation between dollar depreciation against other major currencies and the deviation between change in NIIP and CA. The first two observations are illustrated in Figure 1. Figure 1: Net international investment position to GDP ratio, 2007 release (blue), ...

Article Source: There's been a lot of discussion recently about the effects of high gasoline prices on the quantity demanded of gasoline, as well driving behavior (Jim Hamilton, Jim Hamilton, CR, CR, Paul Krugman). David Austin, whose work I have cited often on this blog, gave a fascinating presentation, entitled "Effects of Gasoline Prices on Driving Behavior and Vehicle Choice" at the recent Society of Government Economists conference in Washington, DC a couple of weeks ago. In it, he tackles some of these issues. (Note, these are his own personal views and do not necessarily represent the views of any specific organization.) I could discuss each of the graphs in detail, but I think I will let them speak for themselves. Figure 1: Gasoline consumption has declined as prices have increased. Source: D. Austin, Presentation at SGE, June 2, 2008....

Article Source Since December 2007 is a commonly identified turning point [1], [2], I thought it would be of interest (given Jim's take on whether it matters if we're in a recession) to see what the indicators that the NBER BCDC focus on -- payroll employment, industrial production, real personal income less transfers, real manufacturing and trade sales, and to a lesser extent monthly real GDP -- are doing. They're declining... Figure 1: Log payroll employment (blue) and log industrial production (red), both normalized to 0 in 2007M12. Green shaded area is conjectured recession dates. Source: Federal Reserve Board via St. Louis Fed FRED II, accessed 8 June 2008. Figure 1: Log personal income less transfers in Ch.2000$ (blue) and log manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2000$ (red), both normalized to 0 in 2007M12. Real personal income calculated by subtracting ...