Having recently completed a week-long trip to the cities of São Paulo, Brasilia, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, I am struck with several observations that relate to relations with Venezuela, Russia, and the international business community.  The title of this post I borrow from Professor Marshall Eakin of Vanderbilt University, whose 1998 book does much to capture the country's long-standing hope of ascendency in global relations - this nearly permanent sensation that the country is on the cusp of major change, only to see the opportunity escape due to unfortunate coincidences and mistakes.  There are many who believe that this time Brazil's rise might be for real.I had the opportunity to meet Professor Eakin last week at lunch, ...

Alex#8217;s Notes: Ouch#8230; Tue Jun 2, 2009 10:27pm EDT CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela#8217;s President Hugo Chavez said on Tuesday that he and Cuban ally Fidel Castro risk being more conservative than U.S. President Barack Obama as Washington prepares to take control of General Motors Corp. During one of Chavez#8217;s customary lectures on the #8220;curse#8221; of capitalism and the [...]div class="feedflare" a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=KCXH259HNtY:WPO2vqYclD8:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=KCXH259HNtY:WPO2vqYclD8:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=KCXH259HNtY:WPO2vqYclD8:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=KCXH259HNtY:WPO2vqYclD8:7Q72WNTAKBA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=7Q72WNTAKBA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=KCXH259HNtY:WPO2vqYclD8:V_sGLiPBpWU"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=KCXH259HNtY:WPO2vqYclD8:V_sGLiPBpWU" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=KCXH259HNtY:WPO2vqYclD8:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=KCXH259HNtY:WPO2vqYclD8:l6gmwiTKsz0"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?d=l6gmwiTKsz0" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?a=KCXH259HNtY:WPO2vqYclD8:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/YourFinancialFuture?i=KCXH259HNtY:WPO2vqYclD8:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a /div

The Washington Post is running an editorial today criticizing the engagement policy of the Obama administration toward Hugo Chavez's Venezuela - where conditions for the opposition have deteriorated rapidly over the past 2-3 months.  This "convenience" of engagement argument could apply to other relationships as well.

This is hardly the first time that a Latin American caudillo has tried to eliminate peaceful opponents: Mr. Chávez is following a path well worn by the likes of Juan Perón and Alberto Fujimori -- not to mention his mentor, Fidel Castro. But this may be the first time that the United States has watched the systematic destruction of a Latin American democracy in silence. As Mr. Chávez has implemented the "third phase" of his self-styled revolution, the Obama administration has persisted with the policy of quiet engagement that the president promised before taking office.

"We need to find a space in which

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One of the oldest tricks in the authoritarian playbook is the subtle theft of the people's sovereignty, grafting the rights of citizens onto a regime of personal power. Cuba's Fidel Castro was and is the grandmaster of this tactic - firmly uniting himself, his name, his family, and his Revolution, and the country.  If you go against Fidel, this means you are going against the Revolution and against the national interests.  It's all inseparable, you see?  There's no shortage of contemporary examples, ranging from the rhetorical artistry of Hugo Chavez to the skillful disaggregation of African opposition by Robert Mugabe.

It's the same in Russia.  Whenever someone criticizes Vladimir Putin, the party, the siloviki, or government policy, this individual is instantly cast as a deranged "anti-Russian" whose hate

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Somebody out there in academia should really do a study of how various authoritarian states throughout history have continued to organize elections, despite a glaring lack of democracy.  For some, the election has always been an exercise in mockery - leaders such as Fidel Castro, Robert Mugabe, and Saddam Hussein always seemed to enjoy impossible margins of victory with over 90% of the vote in their favor.  Other countries, which may be described less as authoritarian and more like adjective-laden democracies, practice a much more subtle manipulation of the process - often focused on barring any competition and other measures to skew the level playing field - and end up with more reasonable, yet always predictable, margins of victory.Hugo Chavez's regime in Venezuela, for example, may have mastered ...

Highlights include Carnival Corp. (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises, Inc. (RCL), Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) and Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc. (HOT).Cuba may offer new growth potential for some travel and leisure firms, if recent steps taken by the U.S. government are sign of things to come.Yesterday, the Obama administration announced that Cuban-Americans will now be allowed to visit the island nation without restriction, and will be allowed to send remittances to family members in Cuba.The lifting of previous restrictions has sparked speculation among investors that further changes may be forthcoming. While the trade embargo currently remains in effect, if relations with Cuba were to be normalized in the future, several U.S. companies could stand to benefit.The major cruise lines, Carnival Corp. (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) would likely stand out as winners, ...

Here's an excerpt from my second Red-Hot Commodity ETFs issue for today ...

Central Banks around the world have apparently decided it’s “free money day.” I’m thinking of driving by the Federal Reserve, just to see if they throw a billion dollars at me when I make a sad face. Hey, the First Bank of Sean could really use that kind of cash infusion. Anyway, needless to say, this is supportive for gold.And you want to know what is REALLY supportive for gold? British regulators just banned short-selling of financial stocks. Why don’t they write “PANIC!” on their foreheads with magic markers and run around screaming on the trading floor? It would have the same effect.If paper gold keeps going higher -- and it certainly could -- we may suddenly see gold eagles available on the market again. The disconnect between paper and physical gold

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