Tomorrow afternoon all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve, which is currently holding one of its every-six-weeks get togethers. I and probably the rest of the world expect no change in the Fed Funds rate. It is currently near zero, so there is no room for further cuts, and it is extremely premature for them to raise rates again. The real interest will be in deciphering the policy statement. I would expect a more upbeat tone about the pace of economic growth and continued confidence that they have inflation under control. There is about a mile of economic slack in the system, and while there are some indications that it is starting to be reeled in (for example, capacity utilization up two months in a row) we are a long, long way from any tension on the line. As the graph below (from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/) shows, ...

This post is a guest contribution by Rebecca Wilder*, author of the of the News N Economics blog.

I compare three competing monthly home price indices: the S&P Case Shiller Composite 20, the FHFA purchase-only index, and the LoanPerformance HPI. Over the year, the stabilization in home values is evident across the board. However, on a 3-month annualized basis, the majority vote shows a stark second-derivative improvement in home values.

The differences between the S&P Case Shiller Composite 20 and the FHFA (formerly OFHEO) purchase-only index are well known. The FHFA tracks home values of mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (conforming mortgages only). The S&P Case Shiller Composite 20 does not discriminate and includes home values tied to jumbo mortgages (non-conforming

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This post is a guest contribution by Rebecca Wilder*, author of the of the News N Economics blog.

Today’s weekly reports are slightly more positive than last week. However, I avoided the trade reports all together, which undoubtedly would have dragged down the sentiment. Although there are a growing number of positive reports out there, global economies are still very much in the red zone, -1.3% in 2009 according to the IMF.

China’s retail sales rebound in March

China’s retail sales grew 14.7% in March 2009. Much of the draw on retail sales, measured in current prices, has been driven down by the slowing - now negative - rate of inflation (see next chart); however, weak demand surely played its part as well. The March rebound is one of the numerous pointing to a bottom

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MF Cuts Global Outlook; Brazil Hedge Fund Sells Banks, Homebuilders; February Home Prices Up 0.7%; Home Prices in Dubai Could Fall 70%; Apple Tops Forecasts; Feds Search Siemens’ Offices; Freddie Mac CFO Found Dead; E-Bay Beats Street

In its latest global outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed the growth forecast for every major country and urged more recovery actions. The IMF said the global economy will likely contract 1.3% this year and post a 1.9% gain next year, Reuters reported. Mercatto Estrategia FI, a Brazilian hedge fund that is beating 97% of its peers, is selling assets of the country’s largest homebuilders and banks, saying they are overvalued, Bloomberg reported. “Since we’ve lived through a liquidity crisis, it shook up the economy ...

Over the past few days I conducted a snap poll on the performance of Messrs Bernanke and Paulson over the past year, i.e. the first year of the credit crisis. The poll was devised in order broadly to gauge readers’ sentiments regarding the gentlemen’s actions during testing times.

In total about 400 people participated in the poll and responded as follows:

Bernanke’s grades were all over the show, with about 42.4% of the participants rating his performance above average and 57.6% expressing the opinion that he performed in the bottom half of the grading card.

Paulson, however, had the bulk of his grades in the low numbers, with as many as 30.1% of the participants giving

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