Another down market last week. Trying to find long candidates in a market like this is tough to say the least. Selling short was pretty easy last two weeks, as it seemed just about everything was going down. There has been some bull winner’s longer term. The agriculture sector stocks have done real well this last fifty two weeks. I don’t like chasing prices so I have not been in on the big bull run of this sector, until now.

After scanning the charts, up popped on my radar, a low risk high reward trade, on a basic materials company providing key ingredients to create fertilizer. I’m personally involved in the agriculture industry somewhat, and have done much research as to what the future holds for this industry. I’m a bull long term on this industry for two main reasons. The ongoing global food crisis, and the fact that the emerging …

By Jason Simpkins Associate Editor Bunge Ltd. (BG), fertilizer and oilseed producer, said it will buy Corn Products International Inc. (CPO) for $4.4 billion, or $56 a share, a 31% premium to its Friday closing price. The purchase will help Bunge expand its product line to include Corn Products’ starches, syrups and sweeteners. The deal will help Bunge diversify its sources of revenue with a “solid cash-flow business,” Chief Executive Alberto Weissar told Reuters. Weissar expects the deal to be closed in the fourth quarter of 2008 with a bump in earnings coming as soon as late 2009 or early 2010. The deal comes at a time when corn prices are soaring amid a run-up in global demand.  Corn prices have surged about 75% over the past year and 17.5% since early June when flooding throughout the Midwest lowered the outlook ...

Like 2 dinosaurs running to hug each other - just go away. Both of you. Gosh the media act as if this is a fertilizer and coal company or something sexy like that...Shares of Yahoo!(YHOO) slumped after reports that talks with Microsoft(MSFT - ) have not brought about any agreement, and instead Yahoo! will announce a search partnership later Thursday with Google(GOOG).The Wall Street Journal reported that Microsoft is saying it is no longer willing to buy Yahoo for $33 a share, and that talks between the two have ended without a deal.The blog TechCrunch, citing a "reliable source close to one of the companies" said an announcement coming from Yahoo! at 4:30 p.m. EDT likely involves "a search partnership between the two companies that outsources all or part of ...

Agrium (AGU) the smallest of the 3 major potash producers in Canpotex is out this morning with increased guidance - expect the same from Mosaic (MOS) and Potash (POT). This is leading the sector higher with AGU up 9% in early trading - keep in mind unlike the other 2 names mentioned, Agrium has a large retail component. Essentially they've taken their own lowball guidance up by around 80 cents, and now are firmly over the analysts $2.50. Looks like analysts are *still* behind the curve even after making huge upward revisions the past 60-90 days, once they saw the writing on the wall - writing we were urging them to see last fall [Oct 23: Analysts Still Doubting the Fertilizer Stocks] I wroteFolks, I am not a full time fertilizer analyst working for a major brokerage (in fact the ...

We've been on this beat for a long time, but more and more the world is waking up to the crisis ahead. We need higher yields, immediately - worldwide. And will continue to need higher yields to support all these humans coming online, especially the ones moving to middle class. [Apr 30: Finally, a Year Late Fertilizer Hits the Front Page of the NYTimes] ... again, I state this planet is not well suited for 6.5 Billion people unless 4.5 Billion live in abject poverty. The more wealth in this world and the more people move from poverty to "middle class" (we wouldn't call it that necessarily in the US), the more strains on the globe. We will have crisis after crisis until/if/when technological breakthroughs happen... but I believe the next 1-10 years will be fraught with crisis after crisis as world governments ...

In this environment, unlike most of the past 2 months we have to pick spots and assume our purchases (as we layer in) will lose money in the near term. This is different than when we buy a pullback in a market that is generally in an uptrend (mid March to late May) - where when you make a purchase on a pullback, you expect a quick bounce. So with that in mind, I am continuing to rebuild a position in DryShips (DRYS), the dry bulk shipper (with deep sea drilling thrown in); but not expecting any sustained move up in the near term. But my first buy target has been reached, so I am executing a purchase.Now, as the rest of Wall Street joins my thesis (eventually) of a global slowdown these stocks could take it on the chin from a perception point ...

Tuesday April 22, Hot Fertilizer, mentions both CF Industries (CF) and Intrepid Potash (IPI).

I am doing about 2 weeks worth of transactions in 1 day... exhausting. Just to avoid being a pig I am taking down my Cummins Engine (CMI) by 1/3rd. I restarted this position April 18 as a weak dollar, undervalued US multinational [Apr 18: Restarting Cummins Engine as the Rest of the World Moves on Without USA] in the $53s. I am now looking back at old holdings that are industrial in nature and am going back to Cummins Engine (CMI) - which has great exposure to India and China. This was a previous fund position, that I closed in November [Nov 13: Closing Cummins Engine] correctly anticipating a selloff and weak period for these type of names. Since then, on April 30th it reported excellent earnings [Apr 30: Cummins Engine Excellent Report on Strong International Sales] at which point I sold 200 of my 500 shares in ...

Looks like the "fertilizer correction" is over. Adding to all 3 of my names on their bounces off support; actually like the Potash (POT) chart the best here, but they all move together. I love this market. Uncle Ben has apparently created so much money, but none of it goes to people who need it out on Main Street. Instead it is flooding Wall Street pushing up equities (along with commodities) :) Kind of perverted but we all thank Uncle Ben as investors, as we curse him at the grocery aisle. $122 oil? No problem. That only affects US consumers - stocks are independent of the "little people". (X amount of stock) versus (Y amount of money supply x 20% annual growth rate) = prices go up. Economics 101. Equities are simply another commodity at this point, it appears. Every other commodity is going ballistic ...

This move has nothing to do with the fundamentals of gold or silver. Simply put I want to run a concentrated portfolio and my # of holdings is getting too large. With the Federal Reserve backstopping the entire US financial system, the risk of "calamity" is lessened (in return for inflationary pressure and dollar destruction)... but this is more along the lines of, I see no reason to hold gold/silver when I have coal/fertilizer. I already know where the prices of those are a year out - whereas gold is speculative, subject to the whims of the market, and a lot of people believing in a fantasy called "2nd half recovery". So I just don't see the need anymore to hold something that is sort of replicated in other ways in the fund; yet carries more risk. I'd rather simply be more ...