While I touched on unemployment duration at the end of my last blog, this is a very important subject and deserves a bit more elaboration. Quite simply being out of work for three or four weeks is a very different experience with very different economic implications than being out of work for six months to a year or more. The focus on the total number of unemployed obscures that reality. The thing that makes this recession so much different than the ones that have gone before it is how long people are staying out of work once they become unemployed. Yeah if you get laid off for a few weeks, it can be a pain in the butt, but essentially it is just an unplanned vacation. It does not really affect your long term financial solvency, nor do your job skills diminish significantly. After six months, regular state unemployment ...

The yield of ten-year US Treasury Notes has surged by 34 basis points since the middle of October as market participants started adopting a more upbeat outlook on the economy and shied away from safe-haven assets.

Unsurprisingly, the following comes from the minutes of the meeting of November 4 of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association: “Several members noted the graph discussing net fixed income supply in 2009 and 2010, and how issuance will ramp up dramatically in 2010. Federal Reserve purchases have taken an enormous amount of supply out of the market this past year across fixed income markets, but next year, financial markets should expect even greater issuance with no support. Such an outcome could pressure rates.” With quantitative easing set to expire during Q1, it is difficult not to see long-term rates rising, unless the economy falls

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Mohamed El-Erian and Ramin Toloui (Financial Times): How to fill the gaps left by dollar decline, November 5, 2009. We should expect to see more discussion in the next few years on new types of reserve assets.

• James West (GoldSeek): Gold price is no bubble, November 4, 2009. The price performance of gold recently has all sorts of armchair economists waxing philosophical on the idea that this is the advent of a price “bubble”. While certainly everyone has and is entitled to their opinion, there are other features of humanity that we all possess, and much like many opinions, are best obscured from view. Declaring that gold is in a “bubble” demonstrates complete ignorance of or disregard for

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U.S. stocks ended mixed Wednesday after a late-session profit taking almost wiped off a 156-point rally in the Dow average that was fueled by the Fed’s encouraging assessment of the economy and its decision to keep interest rates low for an extended period.  The optimism was short-lived as investors appeared jittery ahead of the October jobs report on Friday. Fresh concerns over bank earnings resurfaced after the House of Representatives passed a bill curbing credit card rate increases.

After the house vote, financials slumped 1.5% and led the decliners among the S&P 500 industry groups.  Analyst Meredith Whitney noted the biggest U.S. banks may face declining values on home-loan bonds with government backing as the Fed moves towards ending its $1.25 trillion purchase program.  Whitney said bank earnings are far from approaching "normalcy," and will reflect regulatory changes for an extended period.  JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) fell 1.2% to $42.21 and

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For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – November 5, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Time Warner Inc. (TWX), Fannie (FNM), Freddie (FRE), Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513

Here are highlights from Wednesday’s AnalystBlog:

Time Warner Tops Zacks Consensus

Despite tough macro-economic conditions, Time Warner Inc. (TWX), the global leader in media and entertainment businesses, reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2009 results that topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

The quarterly earnings of 61 cents a share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 52 cents, but

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Dan Holland has just interviewed Wall Street chronicler Charlie Gasparino’s. The first few paragraphs of the interview that appeared on RealClearMarkets are published below.

There’s good reason to believe that Gasparino’s latest book, The Sellout, will become the definitive book on the current financial crisis and the events that led up to “The Great Recession.” Spanning three decades, The Sellout pulls no punches in chronicling the rise and fall of excessive Wall Street leverage and risk taking, as well as the cast of colorful characters that ultimately brought the US financial system to its knees. It will hit bookshelves tomorrow [Tuesday].

RealClearMarkets: You sat down recently with Wall Street legend Teddy Forstmann to discuss your new book and the genesis of the mess we now find ourselves in. Forstmann said it all began as a “cold” back in the 1970s and 1980s, and that since

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This post is a guest contribution by Asha Bangalore* of The Northern Trust Company.

The FOMC policy statement following the meeting of November 3-4 retains roughly the stance that was conveyed in the September policy statement. In the November 4 policy statement, the Fed also left unchanged the much quoted phrase - “warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.” Essentially, the Fed is no rush to change its monetary policy stance. The financial media appears to have reacted prematurely after the 3.5% increase in third quarter real GDP. The effective federal funds rate continues to trade below the upper limit of the target federal funds rate (see chart 1).

The modifications of today’s policy statement are consistent with the nature of incoming economic

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The Federal Reserve decided to keep the Federal Funds rate unchanged at the meeting it concluded today, as expected. Below is the current Fed Statement along with the one from their September meeting in paragraph-by-paragraph format, with my translation and commentary interspersed. As the graph below shows, the market is expecting the Fed to remain on hold, with Fed Funds between 0 and 25 basis points for an extended period. The graph shows the expected outcomes for the January meeting (before today’s announcement) from the Cleveland Fed. The market set the odds of anything other than standing pat at either today’s meeting or the December meeting effectively at zero. Reading off the chart, it looks like about a 95% probability of no action in January as well. I doubt we will see the Fed raise rates before the third quarter of 2010. The Fed is ...

Stocks are higher on positive employment data

Encouraging news on the labor market buoyed stocks in early trading Wednesday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve to weigh in on the economy.

The ADP National Employment Report said 203,000 private sector jobs were lost in October, down from the 227,000 jobs lost in September. It was the seventh straight month of declining job losses.

That stirred hopes for a better-than-expected employment report from the Labor Department on Friday — the month’s most important piece of economic data.

Later Wednesday morning, the Institute for Supply Management will give an update on activity in the service sector. Growth in the service industry would add significant jobs to the economy.

The market’s main focus though is the Federal Reserve and what it has to say about the economy when it wraps up a two-day meeting on interest rates Wednesday afternoon.

Policy makers aren’t expected to raise the Fed’s

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The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 50.6 in October, worse than the expected increase to 51.5 from a 50.9 level in September which was a 2.5% increase from the August level of 48.4 and the first month showing expansion in the index since September of 2008.  Although the index above the 50 level indicates expansion in the Non-Manufacturing sector, the decrease in the index shows this comes at a slower pace.  9 industries reported expansion: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Utilities; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade.  7 of the industries reported contraction: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; and Information. 

The FOMC Policy statement is scheduled today at 2:15 PM EST at the conclusion of the Board of

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