While I touched on unemployment duration at the end of my last blog, this is a very important subject and deserves a bit more elaboration. Quite simply being out of work for three or four weeks is a very different experience with very different economic implications than being out of work for six months to a year or more. The focus on the total number of unemployed obscures that reality. The thing that makes this recession so much different than the ones that have gone before it is how long people are staying out of work once they become unemployed. Yeah if you get laid off for a few weeks, it can be a pain in the butt, but essentially it is just an unplanned vacation. It does not really affect your long term financial solvency, nor do your job skills diminish significantly. After six months, regular state unemployment ...

Baltimore-(TFN):Time to panic? If you are part of the Obama administration the answer is yes. If you are an American investor, hold off on the freaking out for at least another month or so.

With the nation’s unemployment rate officially in double-digit territory and the under-employed rate ready to the 20% mark, the politicians that promised bliss in the days ahead are eating their words today.

And that means Wall Street is eating its recent gains.

For nearly a month, the Dow has hovered around the 10,000 mark. After hundreds of billions of dollars were withdrawn earlier this year, it was relatively easy to put that money back to work and send the equities market higher.

But now that the economic data is showing facts of slower-than-expected expansion rather than “ideas” of growth, investors are forced to explain their logic. The Dow doesn’t want to budge from 10k.

So far, I’ve heard very

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Omnicity Corp wants to be rural America’s premier telecommunications and broadband Internet Service Provider. The company has developed a business model that has proven successful in thousands of rural Indiana homes, providing high-speed Internet service on a mass basis at a lower cost and more efficiently than wire or fiber optic solutions. With this model in hand, Omnicity is now growing rapidly through acquisitions with the goal of capturing the underserved and unserved rural and small town markets throughout America.

The majority of rural homes do not yet have access to broadband service. Cable is often unavailable, and DSL service is usually limited to urban/suburban areas. Traditional dialup service is simply no longer a viable solution, due to the growing audio/video content of the Web. Omnicity estimates that there are currently over 40 million homes, businesses, and other users in the

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Dan Holland has just interviewed Wall Street chronicler Charlie Gasparino’s. The first few paragraphs of the interview that appeared on RealClearMarkets are published below.

There’s good reason to believe that Gasparino’s latest book, The Sellout, will become the definitive book on the current financial crisis and the events that led up to “The Great Recession.” Spanning three decades, The Sellout pulls no punches in chronicling the rise and fall of excessive Wall Street leverage and risk taking, as well as the cast of colorful characters that ultimately brought the US financial system to its knees. It will hit bookshelves tomorrow [Tuesday].

RealClearMarkets: You sat down recently with Wall Street legend Teddy Forstmann to discuss your new book and the genesis of the mess we now find ourselves in. Forstmann said it all began as a “cold” back in the 1970s and 1980s, and that since

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The U.S. Treasury Department announced on Tuesday that two more large investment companies have fulfilled the necessary requirements and are ready to join the federal government’s toxic assets purchase program.  The federal government initiated buying toxic assets from banks with the intention of helping them resume normal lending, which will fuel economic recovery.  The two investment companies, which together raised more than the $500 million needed to close investment funds, were New York-based Angelo, Gordon & Co. LP and Norwalk, Conn.-based GE Capital Real Estate. These companies will jointly invest in the Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP), under which the Treasury provides financial support for private firms that buy distressed assets, including mortgage-related loans.  These two companies take the total number of firms to have joined the government in buying toxic assets to six. The private sector capital raised by these six firms totaled $3.58 billion. With ...

Both have to be "handled with care".

Revisions

We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to be revised. For instance, we see this question from Casey Mulligan, "Where's the GDP Disaster?".

Last October, when we were told that spending and incomes were about to collapse, I predicted that "real GDP will not drop below $11 trillion (chained 2000 $)."

Professor Mulligan provides this graph.

Figure from Mulligan, "Where's the GDP Disaster?"

I think this is an excellent time to recapitulate the hazards of making definitive assessments on the basis of data that are sure to be revised [0] [1]. To illustrate this point, I go back to the last recession, which according to the NBER extended from

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The 3.5% growth rate was, in my view, in large part attributable to direct measures to stimulate the economy, including direct spending on goods and services by the government (Federal, state and local), as well as tax measures. First, let's take a look at how each category of final demand accounted for total growth, in the context of a mechanical decomposition, in Figure 1.

Figure 1: GDP growth and contributions to growth of GDP, in ppts; GDP (black), consumpion (red), fixed investment (green), inventory investment (orange), government consumption (purple), and net exports (light brown). Non-shaded area denotes 2009Q3 advance release. Source: BEA, 2009Q3 advance release, October 29, 2009.

Figure 1 breaks down the contributions of overall growth into the broad national income accounting components (overall investment decomposed into fixed and inventory investment). Interestingly, the contribution of government is fairly modest in Q3 (Note change of vertical axis

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Not all components of GDP are created equal. Some are very big, and others relatively small. Some tend to be very stable over time, and some tend to swing violently from quarter to quarter. The bigger and more volatile they are, the more they will impact the overall growth rate of GDP. Thus looking at just the percentage changes in the components does not tell the full story. Of the 3.5% total growth, how many points were added or subtracted by each part of the economy? The biggest part of the economy is the Consumer, or PCE -- overall it contributed 2.36 of the 3.50 points of total growth. In the second quarter it caused 0.62 of the 0.70 total decline in the 2Q. In the first quarter it actually offset 0.44 points of the 6.40 total decline. In other words, excluding the Consumer the economy would ...

Senior strategist Dirk van Dijk, CFA has issued notes on this morning's GDP numbers. These notes will be published in two separate blogs -- Growth Rates and Contributions to Growth. The recession is over! In the third quarter, GDP grew by 3.5%, comfortably ahead of expectations for 3.0% growth. This is a huge improvement over the 0.7% decline in the second quarter and the 6.4% plunge in the first quarter. The internals of the report were strong as well, although it appears that much of the growth came from things like the "Cash for Clunkers" (C4C) program and the extraordinary levels of support that are currently being given to the housing sector. I will first go over the percentage growth rates for the main components of GDP, and then how much each part contributed (or subtracted from the 3.5% growth rate). This is probably the ...

Helped by the "first-time home buyer" tax credit and other forms of government assistance, home prices -- as measured by the Case Schiller Composite 20 index -- rose for the third straight month, up 0.97%, but still down 11.36% on a year-over-year basis, and off 29.89% from its May 2006 peak (note below when I reference peak levels they are from May 2006, not from the individual city peaks, which might have been a few months before or after the national peak). Since home prices do exhibit a fair amount of seasonality, I am working with the seasonally adjusted numbers. Most of the press has a habit of tracking the unadjusted numbers, which I feel is a mistake. So realize that the numbers presented here might be different from what you read in the newspaper tomorrow. A total of 16 of the 20 cities registered price increases, ...