America’s fiscal train wreck
Prieur du Plessis (July 8th, 2009) Writes:
This post is a guest contribution by Richard Berner* of Morgan Stanley.
America’s long-awaited fiscal train wreck is now underway. Depending on policy actions taken now and over the next few years, federal deficits will likely average as much as 6% of GDP through 2019, contributing to a jump in debt held by the public to as high as 82% of GDP by then - a doubling over the next decade. Worse, barring aggressive policy actions, deficits and debt will rise even more sharply thereafter as entitlement spending accelerates relative to GDP. Keeping entitlement promises would require unsustainable borrowing, taxes or both, severely testing the credibility of our policies and hurting our long-term ability to finance investment and sustain growth. And soaring debt will force up real interest rates, reducing capital and productivity and boosting debt service. Not only will those factors steadily lower our standard of living, but they will
...America, Chief US Economist, Co-Head, Co-Head of Global Economics and Chief US Economist, Congressional Budget Office, Dick, director, Economic Advisory Panel, Executive Committee;, Executive Vice President and Chief Economist, Federal Reserve Bank Of New York, Federal Reserve System, inadequate energy policy, investment postcards, Managing Director, Market Commentary, Mellon Bank, member, Morgan Stanley, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, Panel of Economic Advisers, Pete Peterson, Richard Berner, The Macro Trader, Washington


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