November 4, 2009 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Cowenrsquo;s Robert Stone weighed in this morning on Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq:ESLR) noting that the company may report a narrower loss than he had modeled, citing strong demand in Europenbsp; and possible upside to shipments. He maintains a NEUTRAL rating on the stock. Key Takeaways middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Still sees pressure on ASPs in 2010 which may make conversion costs uncompetitive ($1.65 at Devens and $1.17 at Wuhan while vertically integrated competitors in China are close to $0.80) middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Targeting cost/watt of $2 in Devens (Q4:09 if fully ramped) and $1.50 in Wuhan (by year-end 2010); long-term cost/watt target of $1 in 2012 middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Sees potential upside to model of $.10 loss on $73.8M in revenue due to better results at Sovello middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Believes risk/reward remains unfavorable and maintains a NEUTRAL rating on the stock

The solar industry is taking a hit as Washington moves on to fight battles on Wall Street and in the healthcare sector. Many solar investors are wondering what happened. Is there still time to cash in your profits?

Hype helps and hype hurts. It is time to get ready for the pain.

After months of waiting for Obama’s “golden touch” to save Wall Street and the world, sentiment is turning against him and his plans.

The market is reacting sharply to the President’s moves today.

Investors woke to news of major Wall Street reforms coming later this week. As Washington tightens the screws on runaway prosperity, the average investor had better be prepared for less-than-stellar gains.

For my thoughts on the administration’s tweaking of the risk/reward system, see my earlier article.

But Obama likes to spread his attacks on multiple fronts. A divided enemy, he feels, is easier to defeat. By creating a buzz about

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April 6, 2009 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Cowen amp; Companyrsquo;s Rob Stone weighed in on the solar sector industryrsquo;s outlook this morning cutting estimates again across his solar coverage on further erosion in ASPs, noting that Q1 results could put some pressure on the group. As he noted, this shouldnrsquo;t be too much of a surprise to anyone, as prices have been on a steady decline over the past few quarters. Stone accordingly made adjustments on all companies he is following including: Key Takeaways: middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Spot prices on poly have fallen to $80-$100/kg while wafers are about $1.20/watt. Module prices are $2.60 -$2.80, and Stone thinks prices could fall another 5% in Q2. Expect another round of inventory write-downs; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Climate Bill which could include a national renewable electricity standard of as much as 25% by 2025 could be a catalyst for solar, but it could take a while to ...

Solar Power “Big Bang” Underway Now

by David Fessler, Advisory Panelist

Get ready: The solar “big bang” is getting underway as we speak. By all accounts, solar power is quickly becoming the fastest growing energy source in the United States, and indeed, the world.

But here’s the most amazing part…

Even with a meteoric 48% annual growth - and that of a select group of solar companies - its just getting started. The market is expected to double over the next five years, and triple in just seven.

What’s behind solar’s shine? Is this torrid growth sustainable? What opportunities are there for investment in the solar space? Let’s take a look.

A Quick Solar Panel Primer

Solar panels can be divided into several types: thermal, photovoltaic, hybrid and building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV). In a thermal collector, water or another fluid is heated by the sun’s rays, piped into a storage tank, and then

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February 5, 2009 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Cowenrsquo;s Robert Stone weighed in this morning on Energy Conversion Devices (Nasdaq:ENER) maintaining an OUTPERFORM rating and Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq:ESLR) maintaining a NEUTRAL rating. Here are the key takeaways:

Energy Conversion Devices

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Expects Q2 results to meet or beat consensus, looking for Q209 EPS of $0.30 on revenue of $104 million, but also thinks management will guide lower for FY09. He is looking for FY09 EPS of $1.51 on revenue of $453 million. Managementrsquo;s prior range was $455 to $485 million.

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Last backlog check (Q1) was about $2 billion but visibility going forward will be more difficult

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Expects further ASP pressure

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Potential on higher shipments is limited given current market conditions, but margins should improve on better capacity utilization economics

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Investor concerns will continue to be focused on oversupply and pricing pressure for competing c-Si PV products

middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Sees 50% upside potential in …

January 12, 2009 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Cowen amp; Companyrsquo;s Rob Stone weighed in this morning on Suntech (NYSE:STP), First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR), Energy Conversion Devices (Nassaq:ENER), China Sunergy (Nasdaq:CSUN), Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL), SunPower (Nasdaq:SPRWA) and Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq:ESLR). The common theme to Stonersquo;s comments is lowering global demand and cutting estimates across his universe of solar coverage. Here are some of his key takeaways: middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Suntech ndash; lowering estimates, 2009/10E shipments to 630MW and 930MW (down from prior 750MW and 1,175MW); trimming ASPs to $3.05 and $2.75 respectively; reducing revenue targets; cutting gross margin and cutting EPS. Maintains OUTPERFORM. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; First Solar ndash; lowering estimates, 2009/10E shipments to 917MW and 1,365MW (down from prior 1,045 and 1,522); trimming 2010 ASPs to euro;1.39; reducing revenue targets and reducing EPS. Maintains OUTPERFORM. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Energy Conversion Devices ndash; lowering estimates, 2009/10E shipments of 146MW and 254MW (down from prior 151MW and 278MW); trimming ...

December 10, 2008 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Cowen amp; Companyrsquo;s Robert Stone weighed in this morning on several solar companies including Hoku Scientific (Nasdaq:HOKU), Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq:ESLR) and Ascent Solar Technologies (Nasdaq:ASTI), downgrading each of the stocks to NEUTRAL. Here are his takeaways: Hoku (reduced from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL) middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Prepayment delays and potential difficulty obtaining additional financing in 2009 may slow startup of poly plant; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Cut FY09, FY10 and FY11 revenue and earnings estimates based on slower ramp, lower ASPs and reduced GMs; Evergreen Solar (reduced from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL) middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Uncertainty in the PV market increases Evergreenrsquo;s execution risk in its capacity ramps; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Concerns about increased expenses in the current environment which Evergreen will need to launch its string-ribbon technology; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Further capitalization in 2009 is going to be tough; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Cut FY09 modeling lower ASPs and reduced GMs; Ascent Solar (reduced from OUTPERFORM to NEUTRAL) middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Weaker Euro ...

November 20, 2008 ndash; Analyst Notes ndash; Cowen amp; Companyrsquo;s Robert Stone issued comments this morning on Suntech (NYSE:STP) on the heels of its Q3 EPS miss by 21%. Stone said Suntechrsquo;s revenue is being hurt by steep ASP erosion due to the weaker euro, but added that the company has shifted to a capital preservation mode and liquidity should not be an issue. Other key takeaways: middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Believes STP remains a long-term leader in PV middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Given uncertain outlook we may see further weakness in the stock (book value is $6.12) middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Roughly half the comparable companies in the midstream solar space are trading at 1.1x book or below Midstream Solar Comparables (as of yesterdayrsquo;s close) middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR) trading at 6x book middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Ersol Solar (ES6.DE) trading at 4.2x book middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; SunPower (Nasdaq:SPWRA) trading at 2.1x book middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; REC (REC.OL) trading at 1.8x book middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; LDK (NYSE:LDK) trading at 1.6x book middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Energy Conversion ...

October 17 – ANALYST NOTES: Cowen & Company’s Rob Stone put an update note out on SunPower (Nasdaq:SPWR) and Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq:ESLR). SunPower’s stock jumped yesterday about 25% to $50 after releasing financial results and reassuring the Street it won’t need to raise additional capital under the existing business plan. There has been more concern about Evergreen, in the near term. Here are some of the highlights from Stone’s comments: ·         Stone believes that SPWRA is one of the best positioned PV companies to deliver strong growth and cope with the current economic environment. He cited the company’s products, broad channel and geographic coverage as being key to its fundamental outlook. ·         He said that Evergreen’s Q3 revenue came in short of expectations and the losses were considerably wider than he expected. The company has been able to ramp its revenue, but its margins remain, and are expected to remain ...

October 15, 2008 – ANALYST COMMENTS  (SunPower, Trina Solar and Evergreen Solar) Rob Stone of Cowen & Company reiterated his rating on SunPower (Nasdaq:SPWRA) yesterday with an Outperform rating, concluding that the company is one of the best positioned companies in the sector because of its product breadth and channel coverage. Stone said its ability to provide funding for smaller-scale rooftop systems in the European markets is an advantage as well. In addition, Stone reiterated his Outperform rating on Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL), commenting that at a 0.9x tangible book value he thinks the stock is currently “significantly undervalued.” He said Trina expects to expand gross margins in 2009 and that its credit lines and cash flow should support its planned cap ex, so this risk is more than factored into the current stock price.  And this morning, Stone reiterated Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq:ESLR) at an Outperform, noting that while there is “meaningful ...