In the currency market, the dollar climbed higher against the euro. Late Thursday, the euro was trading at $1.4027 vs. $1.4156 on Wednesday. The day’s data was about as bad as it could be. Primary was the Labor Department’s report on nonfarm payrolls, which showed the loss of 467,000 jobs in June. That was in line with ADP figures from Wednesday, and far above the 325,000 contraction predicted by economists.

The unemployment rate edged up to 9.5% from 9.4% in May, not quite as bad as the 9.6% expected. All told, the data “strongly suggest that consensus forecast for a second half recovery is overly optimistic,” said Steve Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities in New York.

Some analysts tried to pretty things up by pointing out that the job loss trend is improving, but Millan L. B. Mulraine, of TD Securities in Toronto, wasn’t having any. “On the whole,

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In the energy market on Thursday, oil was higher, with crude for May delivery closing at $49.98/barrel, up 73 cents. May reformulated gasoline rose 2.75 cents, to $1.4743/gallon.

“Crude is following stocks again,” said Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading. “This market is more choppy than chopped salad. It is so indecisive.”

While traders pondered slivers of hope out of the U.S., and Chinese numbers that, while down, were still well into positive territory, reports out of the eurozone left a great deal to be desired.

Industrial production across the 16-nation zone plunged in February, falling off 2.3% from January, according to statistics agency Eurostat. Worse, year over year production was down 18.4%. That marked the biggest annual drop since record-keeping began in 1990.

“This suggests that even our pessimistic 2009 GDP forecast of [a 4% contraction], while still miles away from the consensus, looks increasingly optimistic,” said Daniele Antonucci, European economist at

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by Edward Hugh: Barcelona br /br /The number of unemployed in Spain was up again in March - by "only" 123,543. I say "only" since it is evidently less than the 154,508 increase registered in February, or the 198,538 registered in January. And indeed many of the newspaper stories have been full of arguments from Employment Minister Maravillas Rojo (would that she could work "Maravillas") about how Spain registered the weakest unemployment gain in six months in March (when compared to the previous month). However, as those who look into the economic analysis side of this a bit more (and who don't believe in either wonders or "miracles) point out, taking seasonal factors into account the monthly 3.55% rise in March shows a more or less steady trend, and no special sign of improvement, despite the large stimulus programme. Last March, for example, unemployment strongfell by 0.62%./strongbr /br /So when ...

The U.S. private sector cut a record 742,000 jobs in March, higher than analysts’ expectations and a leap from the upwardly revised 706,000 jobs cut in February, according to a report from ADP Employer Services. The report is based on data from about 400,000 businesses with an estimated 24 million people on payroll. According to the ADP’s report, businesses with more than 499 employees shed 128,000 jobs. Companies with 50 to 499 workers slashed 330,000 workers from their payrolls. And small businesses cut 284,000 jobs. One of the biggest losses came from International Business Corp. (IBM), which cut up to 5,000 jobs last week, a source told Bloomberg. And Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) said last week that it will close an Oklahoma plant and cut 580 jobs there. Another report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said that the ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /br /blockquoteIn view of Greece's EMU membership, the availability of external financing is not a concern, but the correction of cumulating indebtedness could weigh appreciably on growth going forward. While the risk of transmitting vulnerabilities to the euro area is very small reflecting Greece’s small relative size, large persistent current account deficits would increase the vulnerabilities to a reversal in market sentiment, leading to a corrective retrenchment of private sector balance-sheets in the face of rising indebtedness, and a possible appreciable rise in the cost of funding over time. These developments would have significant negative implications for growth.br /a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=21937.0"Greece: 2007 Article IV Consultation/a - IMF Staff Report/blockquotepbr /br //ppa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUEsR712NQI/AAAAAAAALuU/VGFiqyCyzBw/s1600-h/bond+spreads+2.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5278548924887872770" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; HEIGHT: 170px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUEsR712NQI/AAAAAAAALuU/VGFiqyCyzBw/s320/bond+spreads+2.png" border="0" //abr /The above quited paragraph from the IMF is a very good example of what used to be ...

Here I relate some interesting new research on how to update economic forecasts with incoming daily data and the latest assessment of where things stand in Europe.

I've spent the last week visiting the European Central Bank in Frankfurt and Eurostat in Luxembourg. Europe is becoming a very exciting area for business cycle research, with a lot of bright and energetic people studying the nature of the new economic interactions among the European nations. One of the most interesting papers at the Eurostat conference I attended was by Gabriel Perez-Quiros, my former student who is now a well-known researcher at the Bank of Spain, and Maximo Camacho, one of Gabriel's former students (which makes Maximo my grandchild, Gabriel says) who is now at the University of Murcia.

Camacho and Perez-Quiros's paper sets out a state-space representation of the various data that arrive (or fail

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Chart for the day ...How do you like that trend?In other news ...Astounding! Joe Kernan is sucking up to Erik Prince of Blackwater on CNBC this morning. Maybe next, Joe will interview Satan and lead off by saying: “Why are those holier-than-thou types so hard on you? You’re just doing your job.”

Oh, now Michelle Caruso-Cabrera is joining the party. Hey, there’s a woman who’s comfortable with the dark side. She’s perfect to interview the head of the world’s largest, most corrupt and bloodthirsty mercenary outfit.

I can’t wait to see who's next!

U.S. Consumer Prices Rise Twice as Much as Estimated on Energy, Food CostsThe consumer price index climbed 0.8 percent, twice as much as anticipated, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The cost of living was up 5.6 percent in the year ended in July, the biggest jump ...