Overseas markets declined. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB plans to start pulling back some of its stimulus programs as the economy begins to recover.

With little U.S. economic news to help sway the market Friday, the dollar is again pressuring stocks. A strengthening dollar drives down foreign demand for commodities, which are often traded in dollars. It also can depress U.S. exports which become more expensive as the dollar rises.

That can hurt the price of energy and materials stocks that are closely tied to commodities and companies with large operations overseas.

A disappointing earnings report from computer maker Dell Inc. is also weighing on the market. Dell said after the market closed Thursday that sales of its computers to big businesses remain sluggish. Its quarterly revenue and profit missed analysts’ expectations.

As

The report below comes courtesy of Nouriel Roubini’s team of analysts at RGE, taking a look at some recent monetary policy trends in advanced economies. This content is excerpted from a longer piece, “Global Monetary Policy Review,” which includes in-depth analysis of when the world’s emerging markets might shift interest rate strategy. However, the longer piece is available only on a subscription basis.

Last week was a busy one for the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). Policymaking is tricky when different asset classes are sending very different signals about the economy. However, those different signals are themselves a byproduct of policy. In the US, bond markets are discounting a sluggish U-shaped recovery or even a double-dip recession, while risky markets are signaling a strong V-shaped recovery ahead. Which is right? While RGE leans towards the

This is Part 2 of a guest contribution by David Kotok* and Bob Eisenbeis** of Cumberland Advisors. (Click here for Part 1.)

Note to Readers:  This is the second of our two-part commentary on the Fed’s exit strategy and the role the Fed has played in complicating its own operating strategies and ability to conduct monetary policy.

In their Wall St. Journal op-ed entitled “The BLOB That Ate Monetary Policy” (September 27, 2009), the Dallas Fed’s Fisher and Rosenblum use the movie metaphor of the BLOB to describe the “too big to fail” banks.  They argue that these BLOBs stood in the way of the Fed’s monetary policy’s low interest rates and thereby “gummed up” the “monetary policy channel,” which would otherwise be able to stimulate economic activity.

The op-ed doesn’t name names.  But we will.  If you examine the list of the Fed’s primary

Two Sagging Economies… Two Laid-Back Banks

by Martin Denholm, Senior Editor

Anemic. Stagnant. Plodding.

Pick your favorite… it doesn’t matter. They all describe the state of the British and Eurozone economies.

Two weeks before the official third quarter U.K. GDP figure is released, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) delivered a somber verdict. The group says it actually didn’t grow at all, confounding those who said the economy started growing again.

Cue a fresh round of some good, old-fashioned British grumbling.

The culprit: a 2.5% fall in industrial production in August, as oil demand dropped. Still, neutral is better than reverse – a gear that Britain had driven in for 2009 up to that point, posting a 2.4% first-quarter slump and 0.6% second-quarter decline.

It’s not alone either. Its European neighbors are also backpedaling. The latest quarterly figure from Eurostat shows that the

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 61 points on Thursday as traders reacted to news that retailers last month had their first sales gain in more than a year.  A closely watched gauge of sales at major retailers rose 0.1% in September. Still, most stores posted sales declines -- though smaller than in recent months -- even as their figures are compared with last September when business plummeted as the financial meltdown ballooned.  While still tepid, it was the first monthly rise in the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs tally since July 2008. 

On Thursday, the European Central Bank and Bank of England left interest rates unchanged.  Sentiment also received a boost from domestic corporate borrowing, which rose for the eight straight week. 

The growing optimism surrounding consumer spending, which is crucial for an economic recovery, followed late Wednesday's good results from Alcoa.  The company surprised investors with

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Michael Ehrmann and Panagiota Tzamourani (European Central Bank): Memories of high inflation, September 2009. Inflation has been well contained over the last decades in most industrialized countries. This implies, however, that memories of high inflation are likely to fade, because over time larger parts of the population have never experienced high inflation, whereas those who have might forget. This paper tests whether memories of high inflation affect agents’ preferences about the importance attached to price stability, using a large database covering over 52,000 survey responses from 23 countries over the years 1981-2000. It finds that memories of hyperinflation are there to last, whereas those of less drastic inflation experiences tend to erode after around 10 to 15 years. The recent decline in

Currencies rebound VS the dollar…Aussie and kiwi lead the currencies higher…Data and Central Bank speeches today…Gold rebounds back to $1,000! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you… Instead of a “turn around Tuesday”, we’re seeing a whiplash Wednesday! And for once in a month of Sundays, the Big Dog, euro didn’t lead the other little dogs (currencies) off the porch to chase the dollar down the street!

No… This time it was the currencies of Australia and New Zealand that led the charge VS the dollar… The euro has taken up the charge since opening the doors to a new day of trading in Europe, so… It looks like it’s a “take the dollar to the woodshed day”…

OK… Let’s start first with the goings on yesterday and then build to a big crescendo! Yeah, right, like I can do that! HA! Any way…

As a reminder, yesterday we

A bias to buy dollars remains…Looks like coordinated jawboning…Fujii now talks about intervening! Gold remains below $1,000…And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well… Stop the presses… You know the presses that are talking about the countries that are on the docket to begin a rate hike cycle, because… Russia has thrown a cat among the pigeons this morning with a rate CUT… Let me tell you why this is a big deal…

Well, when everyone is thinking that the G0-GO countries of Norway, Australia, and Brazil will probably begin their rate hike cycles this year, and other won’t be far behind… While the U.S. drags its feet and wallows in the zero rate mud… The thinking was that the rate differentials to the dollar would begin to widen, causing even more pain for the dollar. And, the reason these countries were able to raise rates

The U.S. dollar slid to a 1-year low against the euro on Tuesday near $1.48 as deteriorating sentiment on the U.S. currency encouraged selling ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting and Group of 20 summit this week.

Traders took advantage of a dollar rally in the prior session to sell on views the Fed will signal plans to maintain loose monetary policy well into 2010.

Currency investors are also bracing for G20 leaders to discuss rebalancing the global economy this week, a process that would almost certainly require a weaker dollar.

A document obtained by Reuters showed how Washington would urge G20 leaders to launch a new push this year to get debtor nations like the United States to save more and exporters like China, Germany and Japan to spend more.

“If you take the view that too much of U.S. growth has been domestically driven, the next logical step is to say an

The just-concluded Group 20 (G20) meeting left us with a chorus of very “prudent” governments and central bankers singing the praises of easy monetary and fiscal conditions. So where can we take refuge when all the central banks in the world print money and governments run deficits in order to spend like drunken sailors? The answer is gold.

Fortunately for us, we foresaw this scenario a while ago. On April 20, I recommended that investors diversify their portfolios by adding the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD).  The fund is up about 14% since that recommendation, but it’s not yet time to sell, as there are still a number of factors working in gold’s favor.

For starters, there is more and more talk of the U.S. dollar losing some of its luster as a reserve currency.  But this debate is moot for the moment.  The reality is