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Prieur’s readings (November 5, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (November 5th, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Randall Forsyth (Barron’s): Synchronicity and stock prices, November 3, 2009. In a post-bubble world, equities move in sync with the cycle - worrying given the loss of momentum. As albert Edwards concludes, “the trend is your friend until it hits a bend. Beware, we may have just hit one.”

• Judy Chen (Bloomberg): Stiglitz says US is paying for failure to nationalize banks, November 2, 2009. Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said the world’s biggest economy is suffering because of the US government’s failure to nationalize banks during the financial crisis. “If we had done the right thing, we would be able to have more influence over the banks,” Stiglitz told reporters. “They would be lending and

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Sprott: US Gov Dead Man Walking

Alex Stanczyk (October 21st, 2009) Writes:
I have been talking for a time about the US Gov buying its own debt. I do not think they will stop with the QE. They cant. They cant because they will not be able to keep the lights on for one, but also because they cant allow a major financial institution to fail or we have global dominoes and a collapse of the financial system. What does that mean? Hyperinflation at some point. I sure hope you have taken measures to protect yourself. I have and sleep well at night. Hedge manager Sprott sees trouble when easing ends US government is new “dead man walking”, investor says By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) – When so-called quantitative easing by central banks ends, the world economy may slip back into trouble, Canadian hedge fund manager Eric Sprott ...

And Then There’s This…Tuesday, June 30th, 2009

Contrarian Profits (June 30th, 2009) Writes:

Gold price action on Monday looked similar to Friday’s. The bottom for gold in the Far East came shortly after 3:00 p.m. in Hong Kong…rose until shortly after London opened, declined a couple of bucks…but once the London a.m. gold fix was in [10:30 a.m. in London...5:30 a.m. in New York], gold rose to its high of the day shortly after 11:00 a.m. This high [once again over $940] lasted until 9:00 a.m. in New York, shortly after the Comex opened…then it got taken down eight bucks to its low of the day at 10:00 a.m. in New York…which just happens to be the London p.m. fix…3:00 p.m. over there.

From that point it rose right into the Comex close…and was taken down and closed below $940 once again in the electronic market.

Silver’s chart pattern was virtually identical to gold’s.

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And Then There’s This…Monday, May 18th, 2009

Contrarian Profits (May 18th, 2009) Writes:

Gold was basically comatose all through Far East and European trading…with what activity there was, beginning [as is mostly the case] once floor trading began on the Comex in New York. Volume was decent in both metals, and both gold and silver’s attempts to go vertical shortly before the London close got firmly stopped in their tracks. The usual New York gold commentator noted that a very large 80,482 gold contracts had traded by 11:00 a.m….with a total of 110,979 for the entire day.

I find it highly suspicious that the Dow hit its high of the day and the US$ hit its low of the day at precisely the same moment that the vertical gold and silver price rallies were cut off at the knees around 10:30 New York time. You can read into that whatever you want.

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And Then There’s This…Thursday, April 09th, 2009

Contrarian Profits (April 9th, 2009) Writes:

Gold didn’t do much on Wednesday. It rallied a bit in the Far East and got sold off mid-morning in London. The low of the day [such as it was] came at the London p.m. gold fix at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time. The subsequent rally got capped shortly after the price punctured $890…and then proceeded to get sold off [on big volume] right into the Globex close at 5:15 in New York. Total estimated volume was 87,493 contracts…with a switch effect of 5,876.

Silver was similar. A vertical spike at 8:30 a.m. in New York got squashed…and the low of the day was also at the London p.m. gold fix. And, like gold, the subsequent rally got capped at 1:00 p.m. Eastern before getting sold off to almost unchanged. Nothing to see here folks…please move along.

Open interest changes for Tuesday’s Comex trading showed an increase of 1,653 contracts in gold o.i….now

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As Safe As Gold

Alex Stanczyk (March 9th, 2009) Writes:

As Safe As Gold Eric Sprott & Sasha Solunac

What are phrases that connote safety? Two that come to mind are: “Like money in the bank” or “As safe as houses”. Given events of the past year, these two phrases no longer seem to hit the mark, do they? These days, the one word that signifies safety is “gold”, being far safer than both cash and houses. It therefore stands to reason that a more accurate phraseology would be “Like gold in the safe!” or “As safe as gold!” Yes, the barbarous relic is back… and with a vengeance.

As our readers may have already surmised, we like gold around here, and evidence suggests the world is beginning to like it more and more

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And Then There’s This…Friday, March 6th, 2009

Contrarian Profits (March 6th, 2009) Writes:

The tiny double bottom that occurred shortly after the close of Comex trading on Wednesday afternoon may have been the low in gold for this move. Both were ever so slightly below $900. From there, gold rose gradually until about an hour after the London a.m. gold fix on Thursday morning. Then it declined gently until shortly after the London p.m. fix was in. From there, away it went…until a not-for-profit seller showed up in after-hours Globex trading in New York and capped the little price spike that occurred at 3:30 p.m. New York time.

click to enlarge

Silver’s antics were the same as gold’s, although the price action was more exaggerated. Silver began to rise once the London a.m. gold fix was in…then declined until shortly after the London p.m. fix…and then, it too, was off to the

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Black Swan Month?

Contrarian Profits (February 5th, 2009) Writes:

I’m keeping an eye out for financial Black Swans this month — more than usual.

If none appears, it will finally scotch a stubborn Internet rumor that — at least in its early stages, and if you give the rumormongers benefit of the doubt — has proven startlingly prescient.

Our story begins nearly a year ago when the House debated in a rare closed-door session on March 13, 2008.  Ostensibly the purpose was to debate the warrantless-wiretapping amendment to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act — you know, the one that retroactively cleared the phone companies of breaking the law by indiscriminately scooping up millions of our phone calls for the feds to listen to if they so desired.

By March 25, rumors had spread across blogs and message boards that the assembled Congresscritters discussed much more than that amendment — essentially a grab-bag of the most familiar and persistent conspiracy theories,

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Sprott Says U.S. Depression Will Boost Gold Price

Alex Stanczyk (February 4th, 2009) Writes:

Sprott Says U.S. Depression Will Boost Gold Price

By Stewart Bailey

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) — Eric Sprott, the Canadian money manager who last year predicted banking stocks would collapse, said the U.S. is at the beginning of an economic depression that will help gold prices more than double.

Bullion may top $2,000 an ounce in coming years amid a series of financial catastrophes, the chairman and founder of Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management Inc. said yesterday in an interview. Banks will battle to replenish capital, Treasury auctions stand the risk of failing and the moribund economy will create a dire operating outlook for many companies, he said.

“The trend is down, and there’s not one signpost that says it’s changing yet,” Sprott said yesterday from Toronto. “We’ll stand by to wait to see those, and until it does, you have to assume it gets worse.”

Sprott, who manages $4.5 billion, said in March that the world

And Then There’s This…Thursday, January 15th, 2009

Doug Casey (January 15th, 2009) Writes:

As per usual these last few days, gold did nothing in Far East or European trading. However, about an hour before the Comex opened in New York, the gold price headed lower in a very similar pattern to what happened on Monday. See the graph. This decline lasted until 9:15 Eastern time when a rally commenced. But it was all for naught once the London p.m. fix was in. The bids disappeared, and the price dropped $12 in just a few minutes…and that was it for the day…as the tiny rally that followed was negated by the end of Comex trading. The boyz just aren’t letting the gold price show any signs of life when the Dow is under this kind of pressure.

The US$ was not a factor yesterday.

click to enlarge

The silver price followed the same

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