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Prieur’s readings (November 4, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (November 4th, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Michael Kahn (Barron’s): Setting free the bears, November 2, 2009. The stock market’s astounding run from its March lows has finally run into a real ceiling. After outpacing most, if not all, post bear-market rallies over the past century the inevitable is finally here. But is it part of another correction or something more? The urgency of the sell-off suggests the latter. That said, I don’t see the danger of the market testing its March lows any time soon.

• Charles Githler (MoneyShow.com): Former bears’ take on the market’s future, October 18, 2009. Are we headed for a major correction, or even worse: a resumption of the bear market?What “the best” (former bears) are telling us now …

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European Stocks Down, German Election Boosts Utilities

Contrarian Profits (September 28th, 2009) Writes:

World stocks hit a 12-day low on Monday, depressed by recent weak U.S. economic data and failing to find support from the G20 summit, while the yen attracted fresh flows to hit an eight-month high against the dollar.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. housing sales and durable goods orders on Friday drove U.S. stocks lower, and world and European stocks followed that trend on Monday.

Leaders of the Group of 20 rich and developing nations pledged on Friday to bring the global economy back into balance but their statement contained few surprises and investors are already looking ahead to U.S. employment data at the end of this week.

Global equities and other higher risk assets have risen sharply in the last six months on growing optimism about the economic outlook, but markets are starting to run out of impetus, analysts say.

“Investors are a little bit reluctant to add to their risk positions,” said Koen De Leus,

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Global Stocks Retreat

Contrarian Profits (September 21st, 2009) Writes:

World stocks retreated further from last week’s 11-month high on Monday as lower energy and commodity prices and caution ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting and G20 summit prompted investors to trim risky trades.

Leaders of the Group of 20 meet on Thursday and Friday in Pittsburgh and U.S. President Barack Obama said on Sunday he would push world leaders for a reshaping of the global economy in response to the crisis.

World stocks, measured by MSCI have risen over 26 percent this year, recouping more than half of last year’s losses, underpinned by repeated pledges by G20 policymakers to keep emergency support for the economy in place.

“The market might look slightly overbought near term, but the economy is definitely improving, corporate profits are definitely improving, interest rates are staying low, valuations aren’t expensive,” said Nick Nelson, European equity strategist at UBS. MSCI world equity index <.MIWD00000PUS> fell 0.7 percent, while the

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European Shares Fall Back From 10-month High

Contrarian Profits (August 26th, 2009) Writes:

European shares slipped back from a 10-month closing high on Wednesday, as investors took profits, even as German and U.S. economic data continued to point to recovery.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top shares fell 0.5 percent to close at 973.92 points, breaking a four-day winning streak, and having hit its highest close since early October on Tuesday.

The European benchmark index is still up 50.9 percent from its lifetime low of March 9, as investors have become more confident on the prospects of recovery.

“The market has come a long way, and the economics are still supportive,” said Georgina Taylor, equity strategist, Legal & General Investment Management.

“We’re just seeing a little profit taking. Nothing has been derailed. Housing data is improving. The only area of concern is consumer spending.”

Energy companies were the biggest drag on the index, with crude prices down more than 1 percent to just above $71 a barrel,

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Global Stocks Slide as Data Renews Recovery Doubts

Contrarian Profits (August 26th, 2009) Writes:

World stocks slid on Wednesday after a mixed report on U.S. durable goods orders reignited doubts about economic recovery while oil prices fell on news of rising U.S. crude stockpiles.

The U.S. dollar gained, retracing the week’s losses, as the durables goods report for July eroded risk appetite and prompted investors to seek shelter in the safe-haven greenback.

Orders for long-lasting manufactured goods registered the biggest advance since July 2007, but excluding transportation goods, orders for durables were slightly below expectations.

Slippage among global stocks that climbed to 10-month highs this week boosted money flows into less risky assets, such as European government bonds, which also gained from some modest month-end buying, traders said.

Economic data in Europe showed further signs of recovery, as did a report showing U.S. new home sales jumped in July to their fastest pace in 10 months.

But a key measure of U.S. business demand — nondefense capital goods, excluding

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Wall St Dips on Profit Quality Worries

Contrarian Profits (July 17th, 2009) Writes:

U.S. stocks fell today, Friday, on worry over the quality of corporate profits after General Electric Co. missed quarterly estimates, discouraging investors after a four-day run-up in Wall Street.

GE’s profit fell by almost half as the slump that has gripped its finance and media businesses took hold of its heavy industrial units, and shares of the conglomerate tumbled 6 percent to $11.66.

Shares of Google fell nearly 3 percent to $430 after news that the weak economy and a slump in advertising spending took a toll on revenue growth at the Internet giant. Its results, posted late on Thursday, beat Wall Street expectations, however.

With companies such as Intel Corp and Goldman Sachs Group posting strong quarterly results earlier in the week, investors had been eager to see some consistency from other bellwether names.

Bank of America posted lower earnings and Citibank relied on a gain off its Smith Barney deal with Morgan Stanley to turn a profit.

“So far earnings

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How to play a stock market correction

Prieur du Plessis (July 7th, 2009) Writes:

Stock markets might just have finished a particularly strong quarter - with the S&P 500 Index gaining 15.2% for its best quarter since 1998, the MSCI World Index rising by 19.7% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index adding 33.6% - but started to look tired last month, and July is also off to a shaky start.

Volume has been declining on rally days and expanding on declining days, which can be construed as bearish action. On July 2, Lowry’s Buying Power Index closed one point below where the Index was at the March 9 stock market lows, i.e. Buying Power is now weaker than it was at the early March bottom.

As doubts persist over the strength of the global economic recovery, the S&P 500 Index, MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index have dropped by 5.0%, 5.9% and 6.3% respectively from their June highs.

Regarding the US

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Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (June 22 – 28, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (June 28th, 2009) Writes:

“Words from the Wise” this week comes to you in a shortened format as I do not have access to my normal research resources while on the road in Europe (also see my post “Gone A.W.O.L. - to Slovenia and Switzerland“). Although very little commentary is provided, a full dose of excerpts from interesting news items and quotes from market commentators is included.

While investors’ hopes of an economic recovery might have got ahead of reality, the cartoonists continually reminded us of worrisome issues …

28-06-09-01

Source: Signe Wilkinson, Washington Post,  June 18, 2009.

The past week’s performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the chart below - a mixed bag so to speak.

28-06-09-02

Source: StockCharts.com

A summary of

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“The Coming Great Inflation Will Destroy America’s Economic Leadership”

Contrarian Profits (June 25th, 2009) Writes:

One of our favorite underground investors Porter Stansberry of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research has picked up on a chart from the Wall Street Journal that will make your hair stand on end. niu525(Click here to see image: http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ED-AJ638A_laffe_NS_20090609175213.gif)

This shows an explosion in America’s monetary base on an unprecedented level. According to Laffer, a former economic advisor to President Reagan and supply-side economist:

The percentage increase in the monetary base is the largest increase in the past 50 years by a factor of 10. It is so far outside the realm of our prior experiential base that historical comparisons are rendered difficult if not meaningless… To date what’s happened is potentially far more inflationary than were the monetary policies of the 1970s, when the prime interest rate peaked at

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