Oil is a commodity that has steadily rose since December. Continuing its monumental climb, the commodity rose near $80 a barrel on Wednesday as the dollar continued to weaken, trumping a report pointing to a rise in U.S. oil inventories.

While this trend may be confusing to the everyday investor, analysts have stated that the drastic change in the price of oil is tied to how global stock markets are doing and the dollar’s fluctuating exchange rate. One such analyst is Oliver Jakob. Jakob, who is renowned globally for his spot-on predictions of market trends, stated in reference to the jump in oil prices that, “This has nothing to do with any oil supply and demand fundamentals.”

The Energy Information Administration is the benchmark for the market and they are scheduled to release its supply data on Thursday. While investors anxiously await that report, a survey from the American

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OUTLOOK The improving economic scene, both here in the U.S. as well as worldwide, is the main driver of the current oil rally that has seen the commodity settling around the $80 per barrel level. But high levels of product inventories (particularly gasoline), along with still higher supplies, will limit any sustained crude gains, in our view. But way too many factors weigh on oil prices, from OPEC decisions and geostrategic tensions to the value of the U.S. dollar and seasonal variables, to definitively size up each one of them for their respective impact on prices.  In its latest release, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a less-than-anticipated increase in crude stockpiles, which rose by 800,000 barrels for the week ending October 23. However, current crude oil stocks, at 339.9 million barrels, still remain 9% above the year-earlier level as well as above the upper limit ...

OUTLOOK The Alternative Energy industry is going through a recovery after absorbing the global recession and the cascading fall in global crude oil prices. Earlier this year, quite a few alternative energy companies were in the trough. Though these companies have recovered from their lows, their valuations are still significantly lower than their 52-week highs. The growth of alternative energy companies is closely tied to the fortunes of the economy. In its latest release, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted that total U.S. electricity consumption will decline by 3.3% in 2009 before growing by 1.3% in 2010 as the improving economy coaxes a gradual recovery in electricity sales. In fiscal 2008, annual U.S. photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity grew by 63% year-over-year, bringing the cumulative installed capacity to 792MW. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) -- the U.S. trade association representing close to 500 companies ...

This analysis is from Evan Smith and Brian Hicks, co-managers of the Global Resources Fund (PSPFX). Oil prices have bounced more than 150 percent off of December 2008 lows but inventory levels remain at historically high levels despite a healing global economy. However, Goldman Sachs says robust 2010 oil demand growth will deplete these inventories over the next 12-to-18 months and diminishing production rates in key areas around the world will create a supply/demand imbalance. The above chart shows the decline in production from the worldrsquo;s top 230 projects. After peaking in 2009, production from these projects is set to fall for the next several years. Excluding OPEC countries (right chart), the decline rates quadruple from 2007 to 2012 (est). Over that time period, non-OPEC production is expected to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day. Only Brazil, Canada and the former countries of the Soviet Union are expected to see production growth. One of ...

Recently, the federal government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued an overall bullish report, showing a smaller-than-expected build in crude stockpiles. Further, the data showed that gasoline inventories were down as predicted, while distillate stocks also declined, though fell short of expectations. In its release, the agency said that crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending October 16, much lower than analysts' expectations. This is the second successive week in which the crude buildup has been lower than originally anticipated. A major contributing factor to the modest increase can be attributed to a fall in crude oil imports, which dropped to the lowest level in two months. Current crude oil stocks, at 339.1 million barrels, are 8.9% above the year-earlier level and remain above the upper limit of the average for this time of the year (depicted in the first EIA chart below). The ...

  Last Thursday, we received a mildly bearish report from the federal government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), showing a higher-than-expected rise in natural gas supplies. Stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 58 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended October 9. This takes the current storage level to a new all-time high of 3.72 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), which is up 13.8% from last year's level and 14.6% above the five-year range (as clear from the nearby chart from the EIA). Current stocks are 450 Bcf above last year’s level and 474 Bcf above the five-year average. The inventory addition was lower than the five-year-average injection of 64 Bcf and last year's build of 81 Bcf. The relentless increase in gas storage levels has meant that with three weeks remaining in the storage injection season, stockpiles ...

Yesterday, the U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a less-than-expected build in crude stockpiles. However, the headline news was centered on a sharp drop in gasoline stocks and refinery utilization that pushed oil prices to a fresh 2009 peak and lifted energy stocks. The federal government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 400,000 barrels rise in crude inventories for the week ending October 9, much less than analyst expectations. The modest increase can be attributed to scaled back operations by the refiners (prompted by weak profit margins) even as imports fell. This follows last week’s report, which showed an unexpected rise in oil supply figures, against consensus forecast of a buildup. Current crude oil stocks, at 337.8 million barrels, are 9.6% above the year-earlier level and remain above the upper limit of the average for this time of the year (depicted in the first EIA chart ...

In its weekly release yesterday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a bigger-than-expected 69 billion cubic feet (Bcf) addition to natural gas stockpiles for the week ended October 2. This takes the current storage level to a new record high of 3.66 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), which is up 14.9% from last year's level and 15.1% above the five-year range (as clear from the nearby chart from the EIA). Current stocks are 473 Bcf above last year’s level and 480 Bcf above the five-year average. The inventory addition was lower than the five-year-average injection of 70 Bcf and last year's build of 87 Bcf.     The relentless increase in gas storage levels has meant that with four weeks remaining in the storage injection season, stockpiles are already 94% full. At this pace, by October 31, which is the end of the injection season, ...

The National Association of Realtors released data indicating a 2.7 percent decline in home sales for August. This was a surprise to many investors after a 4 month upturn in home sales figures and a 7.2 percent increase in July.

These surprising results heighten the anticipation of a coming end to the $8,000 tax credit for new homeowners expiring at the end of November. The Fed said on Wednesday that it would begin reducing purchases of mortgage-backed securities and that it would extend the program into the beginning of next year. While nationwide home sales are up and the inventory of unsold homes has dropped notably, sales are still down roughly 30 percent from the peak 4 years ago.

Commodities prices also fell sharply indicating that fears about disintegrating monetary fundamentals may be justified. In addition, Labor Department statistics clearly show a flagging job market despite conclusions regarding a 3

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The number of traders betting that oil prices will drop outnumbers the number of traders who believe they will rise by the largest margin ever. Some analysts believe prices will fall significantly lower in the near future – at least into the low $60 a barrel range – after soaring to $75 a barrel in August.

Supply has outrun demand this year as a global recovery has yet to accelerate. Yet, oil prices more than doubled from February to August and are up about 50% from where they started the year.

Now, many traders are positioning themselves to profit from a pullback. The gap between prices of options betting on a decline in prices and those that would profit as a result of a rise in oil has widened to a record 10 percentage points, according to five years of data compiled by Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch.

Put options, which give traders

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