On June 10, 2008, Alexei Miller, CEO of Russia’s Gazprom, told a French audience that crude oil prices would reach $250 a barrel in 2009. His former Gazprom cohort and then freshly minted Russian prime minister Medvedev did him one better… pegging crude oil prices at $500. Was it wishful thinking? Did the gentlemen overdose on “hard-money” investment newsletters and Peak Oil Theory? We may never know.

After dropping from $147 last July close to $30 this past winter, crude oil is now trading within a reasonably tight track around $40 and $57.

Now it’s on the move again, breaking through $60 right at the beginning of the summer driving and hurricane seasons.

But oil companies’ proud profit margins of yesteryear have disappeared… along with the easy credit that allowed investment banks and hedge funds leverage crude prices to record highs.

Suddenly, not even the most pink politician is talking punitive taxation against

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Last time I had Japan under the loop I asked whether there was no end in sight for Japan's economy and as I wind up for another close look, I must say that it is still very difficult to find good news if any at all. However, and for the sake of argument I thought that we might begin with some recent arguments in the context of the global economy which suggest that we may be past the worst of our travails. The first observation comes from the Economist's ever eloquent financial markets pundit, Buttonwood, who recently made the neat point that while we are still stuck in the mire, the second derivative might be turning positive. This suggests that while indicators are still on the decline they are now declining less rapidly. In Tokyo, Cassandra voices a similar sentiment

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by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Spanish unemployment shot up again in February to 3.48 million in February, whilst consumer confidence took another knock amidst fears Spain's jobless would now hit 4 million as early this summer, and maybe 4.5 million, or nearly 20% of the workforce. Right, this the latest in my monthly reports on Spain, but before I go further, a quick joke. How do you know when there is an economic crisis in a country? When everyone around you in the metro is busy reading the economics page in the newspaper.br /br /br /br /The latest unemployment data released yestreday (Tuesday) show that the number of unemployment benefit claimants rose by 154,058 in February, down from last months increase of 198,838, but still nearly four times the 40,000 increase in Germany which has almost twice the population, and where the economy is apparently contracting at an even more ...

France’s trade deficit widened sharply in June - reaching a record €5.64bn, exacerbated by the higher cost of oil and energy imports and weaker car exports. The trade gap - up from a revised €4.7bn in May - was significantly higher than many economists had forecast and will weigh heavily on an already sharply slowing French economy. French exports increased 0.6 percent to 34.9 billion euros in June, with shipments to the U.S. and the Middle East declining. French business confidence fell to the lowest in more than three years last month as surging inflation and the stronger euro further dimmed the economic-growth outlook. Growth in the second quarter is likely to be weak at best, with private sector analysts predicting expansion of between 0 and 0.2 per cent.The trade deficit for the first half of 2008 widened to €24.4bn, up from €15.8bn in ...