Above is a graph of various commodity ETFs. The main ticker is UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund), a ETF which tracks prices of natural gas delivered at Henry Hub. OIL is the iPath Oil ETN. JJA is the iPath Agricultural Commodities ETN.  JJM is the iPath Industrial Metals ETN. And, JJP is the iPath Precious Metals ETN. The chart displays the year-to-date performance of these various commodity indexes and it’s plainly obvious that one stands out among the others. Generally speaking, non-energy commodities have been on an upward trend since the beginning of the year and in fact would have provided mid-to-high teens returns just in the last few months! Even oil, though down precipitously in the first

div align=”justify”Back on December 7th I noted that em’the probability of a very dramatic rally in equity markets of 20% in coming weeks is high and rising, taking the Dow over 10,000 again’/em and I stand by that view, implying up to 1100 on the Samp;P. emstrongThe mountain of cash on the investment sidelines (about $8.8trn) earning a minimal return in Treasuries and money market funds as the Fed cudgels conservative, prudent savers and marches them up the risk curve/strong/em, will get redeployed over coming weeks as confidence in the rally and recovery momentum grows. I also suggested that long term energy exposure was attractive, as the oil price had undershot to the downside unsustainably, and that view is now being vindicated by strong sector performance. However, make no mistake, emstrongthis bear rally which will run maybe 33-40% from the November lows will be a wonderful opportunity to raise cash …

Quite predictably, crude oil has been on a roll in recent weeks as the summer driving season has driven seasonally strong performance. With oil trading around $75 per barrel,