The China Lie

Ryan Cole, The Investment U Research Team

Get out of China, now. The entire economy is about to implode.

Let me explain.

The accepted story is that China is going to lead the world out of this recession. It’s successfully decoupled from the U.S., and GDP is going to grow about 8% this year, even as virtually every other country is shrinking or treading water.

The only problem is, the claim is entirely bogus.

This isn’t the first time China has lied about its economic numbers. Most people forget, but last year, everyone thought China’s GDP was approaching $10 trillion.

That was until economists took a closer look at the country… and revised the number down to around $4 trillion.

That’s a pretty big gap.

Lies

And still today, the lies continue. China counts everything made in the country as part of its GDP. That’s right,

This morning, MarketWatch tells us there’s been “a broad-based decline” of shares in Europe. Apparently, “capital adequacy worries” over banks are the cause. We presume this is a polite way of saying banks have no money. 

At least the Europeans are owning up to the fact; in the U.S. investors are still pretending that the emperor’s new clothes are real. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index is down 1.2%, down the second day in four.

Shanghai stocks have also taken a bath. They’ve suffered their worst fall since November. This time, the worry is that the Chinese government will tighten its loosey-goosey monetary policy. According to MarketWatch, “The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 5.8% to 2,830.63, closing below the 3,000-point level for the first time since the end of June.”

Japanese shares are also down, despite recent data showing that the Japanese economy expanded during the second quarter. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Average fell

A few days ago the Russian mainstream media were talking about all the agreements reached with Turkey during the most recent visit of the Prime Minister, hailing the accords as the latest Putinite achievement. Supposedly positive but vague results were achieved with respect to negotiations on the construction of the South Stream and Blue Stream gas pipelines; on the Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipeline, as well as the construction of nuclear power stations. In covering the Turkey visit, they showed the joy of Turkish and Italian prime ministers in signing these deals, and the unintelligible babble of the Russian one, who was able to clearly express a thought about how the Turks - are "difficult negotiators."

But so many gas pipelines -

For more than a decade, author and academic Dr. Jeremy Siegel had the Midas touch.  His book “Stocks For the Long Run,” first published in October 1996, surveyed more than 200 years of stock market history both in the United States and abroad and made a compelling case that common stocks are the very best long-term investment vehicle. Better than cash. Better than bonds. Better than real estate. Better than gold.

In the roaring bull market of the 90s - and since - his book was required reading. Millions of investors were strongly influenced by his research.

In the process, Siegel became a celebrity, appearing regularly on network and cable investment shows. He is also now an advisor to WisdomTree Investments, a sponsor of exchange-traded funds.

But while history once buttressed Siegel’s grand conclusions, current events haven’t been so kind…

More specifically, as of June 30, U.S. stocks have underperformed long-term Treasury bonds over

Dr. Jeremy Siegel: Are Stocks Still The Best Long-Term Investment Vehicle?

by Alexander Green, Advisory Panelist

For more than a decade, author and academic Dr. Jeremy Siegel had the Midas touch.

His book “Stocks For the Long Run,” first published in October 1996, surveyed more than 200 years of stock market history both in the United States and abroad and made a compelling case that common stocks are the very best long-term investment vehicle. Better than cash. Better than bonds. Better than real estate. Better than gold.

In the roaring bull market of the 90s - and since - his book was required reading. Millions of investors were strongly influenced by his research.

In the process, Siegel became a celebrity, appearing regularly on network and cable investment shows. He is also now an advisor to WisdomTree Investments, a sponsor of exchange-traded funds.

But while history once buttressed Siegel’s grand conclusions, current

Albert Edwards, global strategist of Société Générale, has always been a firm favourite among readers of Investment Postcards. His latest “Global Strategy Weekly” offers thought-provoking reading at a critical juncture in financial markets. The paragraphs below come courtesy of Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge.

Not only does Edwards, who was previously vilified then praised for calling the 1997 Asian Bubble, see a significant drop in equities before the end of the year, but his main concern is also every optimist’s greatest green shoot: China.

“Most areas in the markets have now discounted a V-shaped recovery. Any doubt will trigger a rapid reversal in prices. I continue to be extremely sceptical and see recent events as part of a 1930s-like, long march to revulsion. Talking about long marches, nowhere in the world fills me with more scepticism than the Chinese economic recovery. The continued enthusiasm for