House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has an impressive record with passing big votes, but according to this article on The Hill a robust public option may be too much for the Congress to handle. Pelosi is relying on a complex series of whips to keep the factional Democratic party in line. There are two votes that will be particularly hard for her to get: Rep. Frank Kratovil (Md.): Kratovil is considered one of the most endangered Democrats in this year’s freshman class. He became the poster child for incivility when protesters hanged him in effigy. So it was a surprise when Pelosi snagged his vote on climate change by making Maryland farmers eligible for as much as $1 billion in incentives for reducing emissions. But she might not get him this time; Kratovil has said he’s a no on the healthcare ...

A bill to freeze cuts to doctors’ Medicare payments – one that should have been heavily bipartisan – is now in serious danger of passing. The American Medical Association (AMA) promised Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) 27 Republican votes, but now it appears there are as few as two. Undoubtedly, 27 is an ambitious number for any bipartisan bill, but the enormous drop in support is indicative of an overwhelming feeling in Washington. It is a sentiment against any healthcare reform, one that has grown within the Republican party and continues to spread across the aisle to conservative Democrats. Though we at Election Stocks still believe something will pass reforming the healthcare system, these kind of let downs are still quite alarming.

The (H.R. 2454) passed the House of Representatives last Friday - but only by seven votes. Obama focused today on making his case to the U.S. Senate, confident that they will “move this country forward.” He cited the case of California, where tougher energy legislation in the 1970s has both created jobs for the state, helped their economy, and made their citizens more energy efficient. Two very specific programs we noticed were for new efficiency standards in lightbulbs and the expansion of new alternative energies in American homes and businesses. Supposing this bill passes the Senate, you might consider investing in fluorescent lightbulb manufacturers such as General Electric (GE) or other alternative energy companies that currently offer products like those in the WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index (NEX). The President made sure to stress this moment as the point where the ...

Healthcare was one of the sectors that we were unlikely to see much impact in during Obama’s first 100 days. But as we are beginning to get a hold on our economic situation, it is quite likely to see some comprehensive healthcare legislation in the near future. This was discussed yesterday by Les Funtleyder and Arthur Henderson on CNBC (see video below). A few of their favorite stocks were Express Scripts (ESRX), Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (TEVA), UnitedHealth (UNH), and Illumina (ILMN).

Typically here on Election Stocks, we make decisions on how stocks are likely due to behave based on Barack Obama’s policies in office. What’s interesting about this post is that it has nothing to do with any real policy being proposed by this administration - rather a growing sentiment among many suspicious right wingers. We are referring of course, to the ammunition shortage that is driving prices up out of fear that the 1994 assault weapons ban could be reinstated. This administration has previously stated that there are no imminent plans to do so, yet owners of gun stores and private collections alike are spreading the fear to try and increase the value of their product. A list of prominent small arms and ammunition manufacturers can be found here.

American telecommunication companies have big opportunities to make some cash thanks to Obama’s eased stance on Cuba. Most importantly for our purposes, we can easily link specific stocks that would do very, very well with some Cuban business. Persons under U.S. jurisdiction will be allowed to activate and pay U.S. or third-country service providers for telecommunications, satellite radio, or satellite TV services provided to individuals in Cuba, save for certain senior Communist Party and Cuban government officials. People will also, under a license exception, be able to export to Cuba communications devices such as mobile phone systems, computers, software, and satellite receivers. Satellite radio is easy because we only have one significant company in that sector: Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI). Our major satellite TV providers are Direct TV (DTV) and Dish Network (DISH). These are ...

Today, the White House announced that it would start taking steps to ease restrictions on Cuba. Keep mind these are baby steps, primarily regarding family travel and gift giving, but they are steps in the right direction nonetheless. With bills for removing the embargo in our legislature as we speak, it’s only a matter of time before we’re engaging in prolific trade with the Caribbean island. This would be good news for many gaming, resort, and sugar companies (specifics found in our earlier post).

Dan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Partners, was on Kudlow & Company the other night with a solid list of stimulus winners and lowers. You can view the video here (the one titled Stimulus Winners and Losers).

Right off the bat, Clifton said wind and solar were safe calls because of the new grant program the “wind thesis works.” He cited Vestas Wind, First Solar, and Sunpower as beneficiary stocks.

But his most interesting statement was that tech companies would be all over the rest of his profitable sectors: healthcare, technology, and infrastructure. He named Cisco, Intel, and most importantly Microsoft. The quote below is found at 1:49 in the video.
Microsoft has positioned themselves to be the big winner in the stimulus package because they’re writing the software to make this happen.
Clifton had a few losers too, of course. They …

We all know that the stimulus package is going to be the big spending bill of the year, making it the ‘pork barrel’ – so to speak. The fact that there is going to be quite limited appropriations of cash for the rest of 09, this does a lot for us in determining the timing of investments on Obama Stocks. Expect us to be all over this for the remainder of the weekend.

After reviewing some of the major provisions found in the stimulus package that will be signed early next week, we at Election Stocks feel that it is about time to pull the trigger on a few key sectors.

* Highways: $30 billion, School renovation: $20 billion, Transportation projects: $16 billion, Water projects: $8.4 billion

There’s a hunch that these four provisions might fall under the responsibility of our standard …

With its specific goal of stimulating the economy and creating jobs, it’s only natural that the stimulus package would include significant amounts of government cash allocated to creating infrastructure. There was an excellent article on Seeking Alpha pinpointing a few solid picks that ought to pull up in mid-February when the bill is expected to pass.
Vulcan Materials (VMC)

Forward P/E Ratio: 29.8x

2009E EPS: $1.75

Forward Trading Range: 14x – 18x

Implied Earnings: $3.74 – $2.91

Forward EV/EBITDA Ratio: 10.7x

2009E EBITDA: $850

Forward Trading Range: 6x – 9x

Implied EBITDA: $1,535 – $1,023

Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)

Forward P/E Ratio: 20.6x

2009E EPS: $4.00

Forward Trading Range: 14x – 18x

Implied Earnings: $5.89 – $4.58

Forward EV/EBITDA Ratio: 9.2x

2009E EBITDA: $498

Forward Trading Range: 6x – 9x

Implied EBITDA: $763 – $509