In the energy market, crude oil for September delivery rose 89 cents from Thursday to close at $68.05/barrel. August reformulated gasoline rose a quarter of a cent to finish at $1.9159/gallon. Despite continued worries that oil’s recent run-up can’t be justified by market fundamentals, crude continued to climb Friday on the back of a weaker dollar and stubbornly resilient equities.

“The debate between whether the market should focus on green shoots or current weak demand and over supply goes on,” said Phil Flynn, vice president at futures trading and research firm PFG BEST Research.

“The green shooters have had the upper hand this week, but the real test will be next week,” Flynn added.

“Although we cannot discount further gains, we are somewhat wary about jumping in on the long side at this late stage,” said Edward Meir, analyst at MF Global.

“The stock market advance, in particular, looks somewhat overextended,” Meir

Base metals were mixed on Thursday. Copper fell 1.25 cents to close at $2.4893/lb. Nickel gained just over 1 cent to finish at $7.2998/lb. Zinc lost almost one penny, ending at $0.7450/lb. Aluminum rose a cent and change, closing at $0.7798/lb., while lead moved to $0.7719/lb., down half a penny from the previous session. Despite copper’s slight pullback, investors remain mostly bullish, encouraged by what they see as an improving outlook on demand and economic recovery.

“The overall sentiment in the metals market has improved a lot,” said Yingxi Yu, an analyst at Barclays Capital. “It has not much to do with the dollar, but follows stock markets closely, as the second quarter’s corporate earnings were broadly better than expected, improving outlook on the economy.”

Copper supply concerns also underpinned the bullish sentiment. Violence was reported near Freeport-McMoRan’s massive Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and a power problem occurred at Anglo American’s

In the energy market on Tuesday, crude for August delivery prolonged its slide, closing at $62.93/barrel, down $1.12. August reformulated gasoline lost a penny, to $1.73/gallon. Economic worries seem to have firmly established themselves at the driver of the moment. “The market got way ahead of itself with hopes that the [global economic] recovery would be quick,” said Zachary Oxman, managing director at TrendMax Futures.

“I think the dips you are seeing now are preceding the next big down move in stocks and commodities as well,” Oxman added. “I’d be net short, with a trading bias to the short side.”

Another bear is Edward Meir, of MF Global, who wrote that, “Despite the string of declines hitting the crude-oil markets of late, we do not think the current selling bout is over just yet … The markets remain vulnerable to a poor fundamental backdrop, typified by high stocks and lackluster

In the energy market on Monday, crude for August delivery shot higher, closing at $71.49/barrel, up $2.33. July reformulated gasoline gained 6.2 cents, to $1.936/gallon.

Crude pushed upward after an attack on an oil platform in Nigeria rekindled supply worries, and provided “the big underpinning for oil,” said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) said that it had struck at the Shell Forcados offshore platform in Delta state. That was a disappointment, after militants said late last week that they are prepared to lay down their weapons while they consider an amnesty offer from the central government.

Kerr added that “if the dollar fails to hold support [at current levels], it’s likely crude will rally further.”

But Edward Meir, of MF Global, wrote that, “Outside of a sharply weaker dollar, we do not see any imminent factors that could see crude-oil prices

The base metals took another bath in blood on Monday. Copper plunged from the pre-dawn hours to the New York open, rallied back to mid-morning, but then sold off again to finish just off its intraday lows at $2.2643/lb., down 8 cents.

Nickel fell back to $6.80, held there until mid-morning, but took a second beating from there to end at $6.6247/lb., down 38¾ cents. Zinc hit the same morning sell point, going from near even to just off its intraday lows at $0.6972/lb., down 4¾ cents. Aluminum rallied late in the day but still shed more than a penny and a half, to $0.7149/lb., while lead also bombed out, dropping 5 cents, to $0.7463/lb.

Copper led the second straight day of major retreat among the industrial metals, as the stronger dollar hammered commodities across the board.

And, as MF Global analyst Edward Meir put it, “The correction is likely

In the energy market on Tuesday, crude for July delivery was nearly unchanged, closing at $68.55/barrel, down 3 cents. July reformulated gasoline rose a half-cent, to $1.93/gallon.

Crude had fallen as low as $66.48 early in the day, before the housing data sparked hopes of an economic recovery and a rebound in energy demand.

“Oil is reacting to the bullish fundamental outlook of a weak dollar against the backdrop of an improving economic outlook,” said Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading.

But there remains a lot of uncertainty. “Everyone is wondering whether the across-the-board rallies are for real or not, and whether prices have already over-discounted the modest signs of recovery we see cropping up,” wrote Edward Meir, of MF Global.

“For the moment, we think there is still too much buy-side momentum to call a top in any of these markets, be it energy, U.S. equities, or base metals,” Meir added. He

In the energy market on Monday, crude for July delivery continued its relentless climb, closing at $68.58/barrel, up $2.27. July reformulated gasoline rose 2.9 cents, to $1.9243/gallon.

Crude was up for a sixth straight session, and now sits at its highest level in seven months. Yesterday’s rally came on top of a 30% rise during May, the biggest monthly gain in a decade, as the weaker U.S. dollar and hopes for an economic recovery have bred a gang of optimists.

Many analysts, however, have become increasingly concerned that oil’s recent upswing is overdone.

“What all these surging markets have in common is that their advances are occurring in spite of uninspiring fundamentals,” wrote Edward Meir, of MF Global.

“It seems that for the moment participants are not interested in the bearish dynamics of the market, and instead are pushing values higher on solid technicals and bullish exogenous variables, such as the weaker dollar,

The base metals were adrift on a red sea on Thursday. Copper declined steadily from the pre-dawn hours through the noon hour, after which it edged back up over the $2 mark to finish at $2.0121/lb., down 6 2/3 cents.

Nickel also sank all day, barely coming off its intraday lows to close at $5.465/lb., down almost 18 cents. Zinc followed a similar path, ending at $0.6421/lb., down 2¼ cents. Aluminum fell hard, giving up nearly 2¼ cents, to $0.6381/lb., while lead plunged more than 2 1/3 cents, to $0.6294/lb.

Copper led the industrial metal sector lower, as gloomy remarks about the future of the economy from Fed officials made their way into print.

The policy makers cited a “significant downside” potential for the economy, projecting that the recession will linger through this year with unemployment reaching as high as 9.6 percent. The forecasts are much more pessimistic than the

Gold was rangebound again, all the way from the far East through the Globex on Thursday, stuck between $922 and $928, before finishing a very desultory day at $925.70/oz., down 40 cents. Overnight, gold is little changed.

Platinum also had an all-day blah session, only barely edging out of a $10 range and ending where it started at $1111, down $1. Overnight, platinum is slightly lower.

Silver hit the skids in Hong Kong, falling as low as $13.70, but then climbed slowly but steadily through London and the Comex session, leveling off on the Globex to close at $14.05, up 9 cents. Overnight, silver is trending lower. (Click here for charts)

It’d be tough to come up with a more uninteresting day’s action than yesterday’s for the precious metals, as silver rose slightly, gold was marginally lower, and platinum did nothing at all.

The usual suspects provided little by way of

In the energy market on Monday, crude for June delivery pushed to a better than 5-month high, closing at $54.47/barrel, up $1.27. June reformulated gasoline gained 6.86 cents, to $1.586/gallon.

Traders were upbeat after the home sales numbers and a report out of China that its PMI had also risen, for the second straight month.

It’s also “following stocks higher,” said Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading.

There was a bit of wariness, though, with inventories remaining at 19-year highs and the bank stress tests looming.

“We are somewhat apprehensive about price prospects for energy over the short term in light of the stress-test results due to be announced later this week,” said Edward Meir, of MF Global (NYSE:MF).

“Both the commodity and equity markets have already pushed substantially higher in response to the slight improvement in the macro statistics,” Meir added.

Source: Oil Moves Higher