This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Michael Lerner and Ethan Hill (GOOD.is): The new Nostradamus, October 1, 2009. Can a fringe branch of mathematics forecast the future? A special adviser to the CIA, Fortune 500 companies, and the US Department of Defense certainly thinks so.

• Paul Lim (The New York Times): 10 years later, a much less expensive Dow 10,000, November 14, 2009. Investors may take some comfort now that the Dow Jones industrial average is back above 10,000 after slipping to around 9,700 at the end of October. But the return to 10,000 also serves as a bitter reminder that stocks have gone virtually nowhere, on balance, for more than a decade. Look a bit

...

This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest.

• Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph): German “wise men” fear credit crunch in 2010, October 15, 2009. Germany’s leading institutes have warned that the pace of economic recovery is “unsustainable” and that the country’s banks may face a fresh crisis over the next year as bad debts surface in earnest.

• Lasse Heje Pedersen (NYU Stern School of Business): When everyone runs for the exit, August 2009. The dangers of shouting “fire” in a crowded theater are well understood, but the dangers of rushing to the exit in the financial markets are more complex. Yet, the two events share several features …

• Anthony Bolton (Financial Times): Are developed or emerging markets the future of investing? October 16,

...

INTUITION BASED ON A SIMPLE TRADING STRATEGY  I am not the only one who believes trading should be based on a simple method and self trust.

THE PSYCHOLOGY OF DOW 10,000  Why do psychological numbers such as DOW 10,000 matter?

THE DEVIL IS IN THE MYTH and boy can it frustrate a trader.

SEXY TRADING  No, it’s not what you think it is.

THE PSYCHOLOGY OF TRADING  Just because we know it is important does not mean we shouldn’t continue to read about it.

90% OF ALL TRADING IS BASED ON PSYCHOLOGY  This is an older article but a good one.  Trading psychology does not change over time, only the trader.

PROBABILITY VERSUS AMBIGUITY Are you trading the probabilities or are you trading ambiguities?

 

 

...

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – September 21, 2009 – Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week’s list includes AutoZone (AZO), Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY), General Mills (GIS), KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN), Paychex (PAYX), CarMax (KMX), Research in Motion (RIMM) and Texas Industries (TXI). To see more earnings analysis, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=3207.

Every day, Zacks.com makes 4 stock picks available, free of charge. To see them, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5612.

This Week's Events

We will get another look at initial third-quarter results with 11 S&P 500 companies reporting. Included in this group are AutoZone (AZO), Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY), General Mills (GIS), KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN) and Paychex (PAYX). A total of 33 companies are on the calendar.

The Fed will hold a 2-day

...

We will get another look at initial third-quarter results with 11 S&P 500 companies reporting. Included in this group are AutoZone (AZO), Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY), General Mills (GIS), KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN) and Paychex (PAYX). A total of 33 companies are on the calendar.

The Fed will hold a 2-day meeting starting on Tuesday. No change in rates is expected at either this or the November meeting. Traders will be looking for insight about the pace of recovery and updates on the various bailout programs.

In addition to the Fed meeting, the economic calendar features August Leading Indicators and home sales data.

Monday: August Leading Indicators Tuesday: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index Wednesday: FOMC rate decision (about 2:10 pm), weekly crude inventories, weekly mortgage applications Thursday: August existing home sales, weekly initial jobless claims, weekly natural gas inventories Friday: August new home

...

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – August 31, 2009 – Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week’s list includes Adobe Systems (ADBE), Best Buy (BBY), and FedEx (FDX). To see more earnings analysis, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=3207.

Every day, Zacks.com makes 4 stock picks available, free of charge. To see them, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5612.

This Week's Events

This week brings the initial batch of third-quarter results. Seven early reporters from the S&P 500 - all of whom have quarters ending in August - will report: Adobe Systems (ADBE), Best Buy (BBY), Discover Financial Services (DFS), FedEx (FDX), Kroger (KR), Oracle (ORCL) and Pall (PLL). In total, we will see results from 20 companies.

So how will the third-quarter look? The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for S&P 500 earnings of $13.50 per share, a 15.4%

...

This week brings the initial batch of third-quarter results. Seven early reporters from the S&P 500 - all of whom have quarters ending in August - will report: Adobe Systems (ADBE), Best Buy (BBY), Discover Financial Services (DFS), FedEx (FDX), Kroger (KR), Oracle (ORCL) and Pall (PLL). In total, we will see results from 20 companies.

So how will the third-quarter look? The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for S&P 500 earnings of $13.50 per share, a 15.4% decline from a year prior.

Going back to the week's events, the economic calendar will stay busy with inflation, manufacturing and housing data being released.

Tuesday: August Producer Price Index (PPI), August retail sales, September Empire State survey, July business inventories Wednesday: August Consumer Price Index (CPI), August industrial production and capacity utilization, September NAHB housing market index, weekly crude inventories, weekly mortgage applications Thursday: August housing starts

...

What’s good for Goldman is bad for the nation.

We’re attending a financial conference here in Vancouver. Yesterday was actually the tenth anniversary of the Daily Reckoning. A group of readers took your editor to dinner and toasted him.

He was flattered… and grateful for the attention.

But we’re not kidding ourselves. Readers come up to us at conferences and tell how much they enjoy reading the DR. We wait for questions about Quantitative Easing, the Trade of the Decade, the Empire of Debt or other of our important themes. Instead, what they want to know about is:

“How’s your gardener doing? What’s Maria doing in Los Angeles? Did you ever figure out what happened to your missing cows…?”

Readers know what’s important. They want to know more about what really matters.

Still, we are foot soldiers in the lonely battle against economic claptrap; we must march on!

Yesterday came more evidence that

...

The holiday-shortened week saw investors pondering the depth of the economic rabbit-hole. As investors vacillated, most financial markets were characterized by a roller-coaster ride. Friday’s worse-than-expected jobs data left no doubt that the economy was in recession.

The highlights of the week’s discussions were captured on video and are included in this video-o-rama compilation. Strutting their stuff was a star-studded cast including the likes of George Soros, Hugh Hendry, Dan Greenhaus, Paul Krugman, Bill Gross, Nassim Taleb, Jeff Immelt, Stephen Roach, Bob Prechter and Marc Faber.

As an aside, the weather in Europe - where I am spending two weeks with my family in Slovenia and Switzerland - has been characterized of late by endless thunderstorms. Strikingly, the economic mood is no less despondent than that of the holiday-makers trying to escape the ominous dark clouds. But wait, is that a forecast for better days ahead?

Elsewhere, the jail

...