This post is a guest contribution by Paul Kasriel* of The Northern Trust Company.

On November 7, 2008, Bloomberg LP sued the Federal Reserve Board under terms of the Freedom of Information Act to obtain the names of borrowers of funds from the Federal Reserve as well as lists of the collateral posted by the borrowers. On August 25, 2009, a U.S. District judge ruled in favor of Bloomberg, ordering the Federal Reserve Board to turn over to Bloomberg the requested information within five days. At this writing, the Fed has yet to comply and has yet made a decision to appeal the ruling. The Fed has been reluctant to reveal the names of its borrowers allegedly out of a concern that such a revelation could have an adverse competitive impact on the borrowers.

The reason I bring this up is that it is similar

This post is a guest contribution by Paul Kasriel* of The Northern Trust Company.

We hear a lot of concern that the Fed’s mushroomed balance sheet over the past two years is setting the stage for a 1970s style inflation here. So long as we have a fiat (a.k.a. Chrysler?) monetary standard, the threat of hyperinflation always lurks. But is the stage currently being set for such an eventuality? I do not think so.

Chart 1 shows the behavior of changes in the M2 money supply over the past 50 years on a year-over-year basis. After the Lehman crisis in the summer of 2008, M2 growth accelerated sharply. By January 2009, the year-over-year growth in M2 reached 10.1%. Although not quite matching the 13-1/2% M2 growth often reached in the 1970s, if sustained, 10% M2 growth certainly would have the potential to push inflation significantly higher.

This post is a guest contribution by Paul Kasriel* of The Northern Trust Company.

In recent weeks two prominent economic commentators - Arthur Laffer and Alan Greenspan - have warned about the inflationary potential emanating from the unprecedented increase in the Fed’s balance sheet. Yes, as shown in Chart 1, reserves created by the Fed have increased by a staggering $858 billion in the 12 months ended May. But excess reserves on the books of depository institutions have increased by almost as much, $842 billion (see Chart 2). So, in the 12 months ended May, 98% of the increase in reserves created by the Fed has simply ended up as idle reserves on the books of depository institutions.

Yes, the bulk of the reserves the Fed has created

This post is a guest contribution by Paul Kasriel* of The Northern Trust Company.

How does an excess supply get remedied? By allowing prices to fall and by cutting production. This remedy applies to everything from hogs to houses. It is well documented that the prices of houses have plummeted. What may be less well known is that newly-started production of single-family homes has come back into equilibrium with the sales of new single-family homes - at least through April. Chart 1 documents that starts of single-family homes ran at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 368,000 in April, a touch above sales of new single-family homes at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 352,000.

Chart 2 shows that in recent months the ratio of single-family house starts to sales of new single family home sales is at it lowest level in 47 years. This is not