We've discussed recently the hot new place for natural gas is the potentially enormous Haynesville Shale [Jul 2: Petrohawk Energy and Chesapeake Energy Flying on Haynesville Shale News] (EDIT: Let me add 2 additional names) I've been hoping one of the 4 names closely associated with this space, either Petrohawk Energy (HK), Goodrich Petroleum (GDP), GMX Resources (GMXR), and Comstock Resources (CRK) would sell down to their 50 day moving average now that natural gas has finally been hit. But no mas as the charts below show. Things are going so well, that Goodrich actually placed a 3M share offering at $64 today and the stock is ...

Banks have had a rough time lately and the market performance of their stocks reflect that. Now that Secretary Paulson and some others are calling a bottom for the financial crisis, it is timely to look at the Keefe Bruyette & Woods Large Bank Index and the ETF that tracks it (KBE).

Technicals:

The five-year chart shows the KBW index (BKX in black) versus the S&P 500 (proxy SPY in gold). The BKX 200-day average is shown in blue and the 50-day average is shown in violet.

The YTD chart shows the KBW large bank ETF (proxy KBE in blue) versus the S&P 500 (proxy SPY in red).

The KBE candlestick chart provides alternative detail of the YTD performance of KBE alone, along with its 200-day and 50-day day moving averages.

KBE has massively underperformed the S&P 500. As of May

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If you overlay the natural gas stocks over the coal stocks, it's the identical pattern since last Thursday, only with about half the gains... still some very nice moves for 3 days of work. Since my natural gas stake (3 positions, about 6%) is smaller than coal I am not taking any profits here, but once again just remember this the next time the 'early cycle', 'it will all be fine' folks start clucking. Let's compare Fannie Mae (FNM) to Cimarex Energy (XEC) Now, in the most recent period people were so fearful of financials that any news saying they won't be bankrupt was CHEERED - huge writeoffs? Better than expected! Take the stock up!... equity dilution? At least it's not out of business! Take the stock up! - but at some point the longer this goes (and it won't reverse in a quarter or two like many would have you ...