The following appeared in the November issue of Business Diary Botswana:

Despite the IMF’s recent projection that Botswana’s economy will contract 10.3% this year, the lender expects a 4.1% uptick next year such that emergency funding would not be required. Back in June the country tapped a $1.5bn “budget support loan” from the African Development Bank–the largest such facility ever granted by the Bank–in order to finance part of a budget deficit then estimated at around 13.5% of GDP, and since revised to 14%. The IMF cited a renewal of demand for diamonds as a central facet of its optimistic forecast. Furthermore, it predicted, GDP growth across sub-Saharan Africa will rise to approximately 4% next year and 5% in 2011, up from 1.1% in 2009. “We think it should be possible for sub-Saharan Africa to recover quicker this time around and have a ‘V-shaped recovery,’”

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After months of painstaking negotiations, GM has scrapped the Opel sale on the basis that it was 'no longer in the best interests of GM, now that the environment for car sales has started to improve', reports the Independent.  The decision comes just after Opel's labor force had agreed to contribute $390 million in annual savings.  'Management had planned a release saying that they will proceed with Magna, so there must have been a fundamental change of view within the board', the FT quotes an insider as saying.  The Russian government is planning to raise $1.87 billion to bail out ailing carmaker Avtovaz, most of which will be apparently allotted to bad debts, and some of which will be allocated to modernization and on job creation, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has reportedly announced.  Daimler Trucks will proceed ...

The “Tiregate” Scandal Can’t Derail This Growth Story…

by Robert Williams, Publisher, Investment U

The 35% tariff that President Obama just slapped on Chinese tire imports is not sitting well with the nation’s top brass, notably President Hu Jintao.

Chinese officials say that the tire decision represents a dangerous precedent toward protectionism and against the notion of free trade. They’re even threatening to “re-evaluate” their position on U.S. imports, like automobiles and poultry.

But Tiregate is more about the United Steelworkers union – the dominant force in U.S. tire plants – than anything else. The union is a pivotal ally in Obama’s fight on healthcare reform.

As such, I expect the spat to resolve itself at the upcoming G-20 summit in Pittsburgh. So don’t let this tit-for-tat derail your long-term investment outlook on China.

The rise of the middle

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Asian economies are recovering faster than previously thought and will lead the charge out of the worst global downturn since the 1930s, according to new forecasts by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) – a Manila-based institution that promotes economic and social progress in the Asia-Pacific region.

After slashing its forecast for the region in March, the ADB reversed course in its updated Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2009. The bank said developing economies in Asia would grow by 3.9% this year, up from its previous forecast of 3.4%.

“Despite worsening conditions in the global economic environment, developing Asia is poised to lead the recovery from the worldwide slowdown,” said ADB Chief Economist Jong-Wha Lee.

However, the growth will not be evenly distributed. Economic growth in East Asia will be driven largely by China’s dynamic economy. But economic growth in Southeast Asia will be sluggish, because the recoveries of Vietnam and

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If you want to know what Russia's energy ambitions are in the emerging markets of Africa, Asia, and Latin America, I used to tell people that all you had to do was carefully track the travel schedule of Vladimir Putin.  Nowadays, the same can be said of the Energy Czar Igor Sechin, as his itinerary is bound to be connected with the signing of major deals.Case in point, yesterday afternoon, Russia's RIA Novosti Spanish wire service reported on the arrival of the Deputy Prime Minister and Rosneft Chairman to Caracas, Venezuela.  The reason for the trip, as duly reported by the state news agency, was to prepare for Hugo Chavez's upcoming visit to Moscow and a high-level inter-governmental ...

The following appeared in July’s Business Diary Botswana:

Speaking at a seminar in October 2006 devoted to the country’s efforts towards economic diversification, Happy Fidzani, Executive Secretary of the Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis (BIDPA), warned that the government’s “heavy confidence” in its mining sector–namely rough diamond extraction through Debswana, the joint-venture mining firm operated in partnership with South Africa’s De Beers and dating back to the late 1960s–had created a welfare-like, “parasitic” dependency for revenue upon which the nation’s non-mineral sector was habitually tied. Largely unaware of just how prophetic his words would soon turn out to be, Fidzani told the audience that shocks originating from the mining industry were still “easily felt” across the economy, and that the government, despite its ceaseless rhetoric and campaigning about the importance of diversity, was as reliant as ever on just one resource. Less than three years later

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Recently, Cosan SA Ltd. (CZZ), a leading producer of sugar and ethanol in the world, reported results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2009. The company has shifted the fiscal year period to March 31 from April 30. As such, fiscal year 2009 comprised only 11 months compared to 12 months in fiscal year 2008 and fourth quarter of 2009 includes 2 months versus 3 months in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The company posted net revenue of R$2,349.8 million (US$1,008.5 million), an increase of 179% year over year and R$6,270.1 million (US$3,119.5 million), an increase of 129%, during fourth quarter and fiscal 2009, respectively. EBITDA during the quarter and full year reached R$165.9 million (US$ 71.2 million) and R$718.0 million (US$357.2 million), representing an increase of 232.5% and 292.6%, respectively.

However, Cosan reported a net loss of R$40.2 million (US$17.3 million) in

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Back in March I analyzed and indeed applauded the Bank of Botswana’s decision to run a fiscal deficit in the face of waning exports.  Given the country’s accumulated reserves, as well as then-falling commodity prices, temporarily raiding coffers in order to support domestic consumption—despite the long-term problems posed by such “unorthodox” policy—was a no-brainer for the central bank.

That said, one concern I had (and still have) for Botswana is that the government was underestimating just how grave (prolonged) this global recession would be.  While Botswana is actively attempting to diversify away from diamonds, this transformation will take time.  Moreover, demand from the Japan and the U.S., diamond’s biggest buyers, may never truly return.  The extent of the necessary de-leveraging that must take place in the U.S., for example, is staggering.

It appears that at least for the short-term, however, Botswana will have an adequate credit supply, not

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The Ho Chi Minh Exchange, which lost two-thirds of its value in 2008 and hit a low this past February, has risen 2% overall since the beginning of the year and 36.6% since late February.  Thus, while the market has underperformed Malaysia, which is up 5.3%, it outperformed Thailand, down 2.8%.  The government forecasts 5-5.5% growth in GDP, while the Asian Development Bank expects 4.5% growth, among the highest in south-east Asia.  Moreover, inflation is now in the single digits for the first time in 19 months.  Per the Financial Times:

Vietnam’s economy is starting to respond to an aggressive government stimulus program, which the IMF forecasts will cost a total of $3.8bn, or 4% of GDP. It includes some direct cash transfers but most of the money is designed to keep industry, including the vital export sector, running through the downturn.  The government has subsidized loans, improved access

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With the U.S. stimulus package in place and the politically contentious cap-and-trade program looming, one sector is poised to benefit from both measures. Calling it the “Rodney Dangerfield” of renewable energies, Greg Reid, director of Clean Technology at Wellington West Capital Markets, says geothermal doesn’t get a lot of respect right now—but that’s about to change. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Greg discusses how the political push, and monetary allocation, for clean energy are aligning the political and social stars over geothermal.

The Energy Report: Greg, in one of your articles, you call geothermal the “sleeping giant” of renewable energy. What makes geothermal so interesting to you?

Greg Reid: I think the political and social stars are starting to align here. One of the key things is political will. You now have the governments that are pushing renewable energy. There was a lot of concern that as …