Ukrainian Railway have defaulted on a Barclays bond. They have another, government guaranteed obligation with Deutsche Bank. If Deutsche Bank accelerates the payment interest it is then not paid, it will count as a government default, according to Moody’s.   “Sovereign debt isn’t a major issue in the market today and was not a main reason that caused this crisis [...]

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Michael Lerner and Ethan Hill (GOOD.is): The new Nostradamus, October 1, 2009. Can a fringe branch of mathematics forecast the future? A special adviser to the CIA, Fortune 500 companies, and the US Department of Defense certainly thinks so.

• Paul Lim (The New York Times): 10 years later, a much less expensive Dow 10,000, November 14, 2009. Investors may take some comfort now that the Dow Jones industrial average is back above 10,000 after slipping to around 9,700 at the end of October. But the return to 10,000 also serves as a bitter reminder that stocks have gone virtually nowhere, on balance, for more than a decade. Look a bit

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Companies featured in this edition of the newsletter: ACTC, CVM, CHIP, ENZ, HYTM, IWEB, ONEZ, PHC, SIHI, SRCO

Markets continued their strong performance this week in the absence of any major market driving earnings or economic reports, as the broad based buying that characterized the previous week continued and led to gains in all of the major indices. All told, the Dow added 2.5% on the week, gaining 247 points to close at 10,270, up 17.0% on the year. The Nasdaq posted a 2.6% gain on the week, closing at 2,167 to extend its yearly gains to 37.5%, while the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 gained 2.3% and 1.0% respectively, bringing their yearly gains to 21.1% and 17.4%.

Equity markets carried the momentum from the previous week’s session, as the thin economic calendar and lack of significant earnings reports provided little incentive for investors to slow their buying activities.

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If You Thought the Housing Meltdown Was Bad… Doug Hornig, Senior Editor, (Casey Research):

…wait until you see what’s in the cards for commercial real estate.

That’s right, the next train wreck will be in commercial real estate. Couldn’t be worse than last year’s residential market crash? That remains to be seen. But it’s coming soon, probably as early as the second quarter of next year, and there’s nothing that can prevent it. The government will intervene, trying desperately to delay the day of reckoning, and may even succeed. For a while. But make no mistake about it, that train is going off the tracks no matter what.

Every part of the sector – from multifamily apartment buildings to retail shopping centers, suburban office buildings, industrial facilities, and hotels – has accumulated a huge amount of defaulted or nonperforming paper. It’s an impossible, swaying structure that cannot long stand.

Just ask Andy Miller.

Andy

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• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) added Cytec Industries (NYSE:CYT) to its Conviction Sell List, with a target of $31.  The analyst warned of the bleak outlook for the late-cycle aerospace industry, and economic uncertainties in Europe, which represents 40% of sales

• JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) plans to reinstate 401K matching programs starting with 2009 as well as plans to hire 1,200 mortgage officers

• Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) CEO Bartz said the company is hiring again as the firm expects to increase its operating profit margin to the 15-20% range on cost cutting and sales growth

• Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE) said it plans to cut 680 jobs, or about 9% of its workforce, as part of a restructuring plan.  The company said the move would result in pre-tax charges of $65 million to $71 million, with $18 million to $20 million to be taken in the fourth quarter

• Monsanto (NYSE:MON) confirmed its full-year 2010 earnings outlook

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• Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) reported fourth quarter earnings of 24 cents a share, up from last year's 10 cents, above Zacks estimates of 21 cents, as revenues dropped 3.7% to $2.42 billion. The firm raised its 2010 guidance to 15-20% earnings growth from prior guidance of 13-18% growth

• Hyatt Hotels (NYSE:H) shares gained 12% on their NYSE debut.  The company sold 38 million shares at $25 per share

• JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) lifted its price target on Ford (NYSE:F)

• The smartphone marketplace will watch today's launch of Verizon's (NYSE:VZ) much-heralded new "Droid" launch, using Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android operating system

• AIG (NYSE:AIG) reported third quarter earnings of $2.85 ex-items

• Bernstein upgraded General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) shares

• JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) upgraded Macy's (NYSE:M) shares

• Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) upgraded Blue Nile (NASDAQ:NILE) shares, lifting the price target from $30 to $50

Zacks Investment Research

Exchange-traded notes are like the forgotten stepchildren of the ETF industry: unloved and overlooked. Investors (particularly taxable investors) are missing out.

According to the National Stock Exchange, U.S. ETNs had $6.9 billion in assets at the end of September. ETFs were literally 100 times more prevalent, with $697 billion in assets. That included $62 billion just in long commodity ETFs.

That’s just crazy. And it highlights investors’ irrational fear of the ETN product structure.

I remember when ETNs first came to market in 2006: Investors couldn’t get enough of them. Barclays Capital launched the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index ETN (NYSEArca: DJP) and it quickly gathered assets.

The reason was simple: ETNs offered two huge advantages over commodity ETFs.

First, they promised perfect tracking. If you bought an ETN, you would receive the full return of the benchmark, minus the fund’s expenses. Period. That’s handy, since commodity ETFs have been more prone to tracking error

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A new ETF giving access to Chinese A shares is to be launched in Singapore next month.

The United FTSE Xinhua China A50 ETF, to be offered by the asset management subsidiary of United Overseas Bank (UOB), will be the first China A-shares fund to be denominated and traded in Singapore dollars.

Chinese A shares are denominated and traded in Chinese yuan and listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges. Historically, access to the A-shares market in China has been limited to Chinese nationals and qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs) approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).

The FTSE Xinhua China A50 Index is designed to measure the performance of the 50 largest China A-shares companies, based on market capitalization.

ETFs tracking A shares are already dominant in the Asian market. The Hong Kong-listed iShares Asia Trust, which also tracks the FTSE Xinhua A50 Index, is the largest Asian ETF, with $6.7

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The National Saving Identity states:

CA ≡ (T-G) + (S-I)

Where CA is the current account, (T-G) is the consolidated government budget balance, and (S-I) is the private sector saving-investment balance. Figure 1 depicts the profound shifts that have occurred in these components (normalized by nominal GDP).

Figure 1: Net government saving (blue), net private saving-investment balance, (red) and current account (green), all normalized by nominal GDP. NBER defined recessions shaded gray; assumes latest recession ends 2009Q2. Source: BEA, GDP 2009Q2 3rd release, Tables 3.1, 4.1, 5.1.

Note that I've omitted the statistical discrepancy which makes these items add up exactly.

How much of the recent shift in the net private saving is due to changes in personal saving (as opposed to corporate behavior)? Actually quite a bit. Of the 2.6 ppts shift in net private saving since 08Q1, 2.9 ppts is accounted for by the shift in personal

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2009-10-07 RA - RailAmerica RA - RailAmerica plans on offering 21 million shares at a range of $16-$18. Majority owner Fortress will be selling 10.5 million shares in the deal. If over-allotments are exercised, the deal size will be 24.15 million shares. JP Morgan, Citi, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley are leading the deal, Wells Fargo, Dahlman Rose, Lazard, Stifel and Williams Trading co-managing. Post-ipo RA will have 56 million shares outstanding for a market cap of $952 million on a pr ..