Stocks are lower as an unexpected drop in home construction raised concerns about the pace of the economy’s recovery

The Commerce Department said construction of homes and apartments fell 10.6 percent in October to an annual rate of 529,000, well below the pace of 600,000 that economists polled by Thomson Reuters had predicted.

Building permits, a key indication for future activity, slid 4 percent to an annual rate of 552,000, also below the rate of 580,000 that analysts had forecast.

There was little reaction to a report that found inflation at the retail level remained tame as rising unemployment, nervous consumers and tight credit keep prices stable.

The Labor Department said consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in October, slightly above the 0.2 percent economists expected. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 0.2 percent, compared to expectations of a 0.1 percent rise.

A report released Tuesday on prices at the wholesale

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By Don Miller Associate Editor Money Morning

U.S. retail sales rose unexpectedly in October as vehicle sales rebounded from a deep slump. However, non-auto sales rose less than forecast, suggesting consumers remain cautious as unemployment surges amid a “jobless recovery.”

Sales at the nation’s retail outlets increased 1.4%, the Commerce Department said today (Monday), much better than the 0.9% increase projected by the median estimate of 66 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. But September sales were revised downwards to a 2.3% decrease from the previous estimate of a 1.5% decline.

Aside from automobiles, other sales rose just 0.2%. That increase marked the third month in a row that sales rose, but failed to meet the 0.4% climb economists had predicted.

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The Trade Deficit decreased to $36.5 billion in September from $30.8 billion in August.  September exports increased by $3.7 billion to $132.0 billion, offset by the increase in imports by $9.3 billion to $168.4 billion.  The Commerce Department provided the September figures of the trade balance of the U.S. relative to selected trading partners, in billions of dollars, with surpluses in Hong Kong ($1.9), Australia ($0.9), Singapore ($0.3), and Egypt ($0.3).  Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($22.1), OPEC ($7.9),the European Union ($5.5), Mexico ($4.6), Japan ($4.1), Venezuela ($2.0), Nigeria ($1.9), Canada ($1.5), Korea ($0.8), and Taiwan ($0.7).

Upcoming Releases Retail Sales (11/16 at 8:30 AM EST) Business Inventories (11/16 at 10:00 AM EST) PPI (11/17 at 8:30 AM EST) Industrial Production (11/17 at 9:15 AM EST)

Zacks Investment Research

Report better-than-expected with largest housing construction increase in 6 years

The Commerce Department reported that total construction spending was up 0.8 percent in September, surprising the street since analysts had forecasted a 0.3 percent drop. August numbers were revised down to show a 0.1 percent drop rather the 0.8 percent gain first reported. The increase was driven by the largest jump in housing construction in more than six years.

As the economy struggles to emerge from the worst recession since the 1930s, many are hoping that housing has bottomed. The 3.9% increase in spending and residential construction is the largest jump in housing activity since July 2003. Some economists are seeing signs of a rebound in this sector which would help support an economic recovery

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U.S. stocks rose strongly Thursday, reversing a four-session losing run, after a government report said the economy grew more than expected in the July-September quarter.  Investors shunned Treasuries and jumped back into stocks after the report signaled the economy had emerged from the worst recession since the 1930s. 

The positive surprise was enough to propel benchmark indexes to their biggest advance since July and send safe havens like Treasuries and dollar lower.  Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) and Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) advanced at least 5.1% after the Commerce Department said the economy returned to growth following four straight quarters of decline.  Crude prices jumped $2.44, or 3.1%, to $79.87 and gold was up $16.50 to $1046.40.

The S&P 500 registered its biggest one-day gain since July 23, jumping 2.2% to close at 1,066.11.  The 30-share Dow Jones industrial average shot up by 199.89 points, or 2.05%, at 9,962.58 and the tech-heavy

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The Commerce Department reported today that the seasonally adjusted real value of the nation's production of goods and services grew at a 3.5% annual rate during the third quarter, a little better than the 3.2% average seen since 1947.

Rate of growth of real GDP (annual rates), 1947:Q2 to 2009:Q3. Shaded regions represent dates of recessions as declared by NBER.

Consumption spending is the biggest component of GDP and the main contributor to third quarter growth, accounting by itself for 2.4 percentage points out of the 3.5% total, and with consumer purchases of motor vehicles and parts alone 3/5 of the contribution of consumption. Next in importance was inventory rebuilding, which added 0.9 percentage points to the total and could make a significant further contribution in the quarters ahead. Housing is finally making a positive rather than a negative

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Renewed fears that the global economic recovery is faltering shook investors across Asia, sending stock markets in the region sharply lower Thursday.  The Nikkei fell below the 10,000 mark for the first time in three weeks.  Dollar and yen rose as hedge funds sold off risky positions and traders trimmed their appetite for risk. 

The Nikkei 225 stock average fell 1.8% to 9,891.10 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plunged 2.3% to 21,264.99 points. In Mainland China, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.3% to close at 2,960.47.  All other major indices in the region ended in the red.   

On Wednesday, US stocks tumbled after a weaker-than-anticipated new home sales report aggravated concerns that the seven-month old rally has gone ahead of any economic recovery.  To add to the bearish sentiment Goldman Sachs lowered its projection for the third-quarter gross domestic product.  The government's report on third-quarter GDP is due

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For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – October 15, 2009 – Zacks.com releases the latest Zacks Industry Rank. Stocks featured in this week’s analysis include Limited Brands (LTD), Kohl's (KSS), Target (TGT), Ross Stores (ROST) and TJX Companies (TJX).

Zacks Industry Rank Analysis is written by Charles Rotblut, CFA, Senior Market Analyst for Zacks.com.

This week: Retailers’ Registers Are Ringing

Consumers are showing a willingness to spend, even as they watch their budgets.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department said that retailers saw sales rose 0.5% last month, excluding motor vehicles and parts. Furniture & home furnishing stores, health & personal care stores, general merchandise stores and gasoline stations all saw increases of 0.8% or better.

(The hangover from the Cash for Clunkers program resulted in an 11.8% drop in sales at auto dealers. This skewed the overall change in retail sales down to -1.5%.)

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Consumers are showing a willingness to spend, even as they watch their budgets.

This morning, the Commerce Department said that retailers saw sales rose 0.5% last month, excluding motor vehicles and parts. Furniture & home furnishing stores, health & personal care stores, general merchandise stores and gasoline stations all saw increases of 0.8% or better.

(The hangover from the Cash for Clunkers program resulted in an 11.8% drop in sales at auto dealers. This skewed the overall change in retail sales down to -1.5%.)

The increase may seem surprising given the economic backdrop. After all, unemployment is rising towards 10% and another wave of foreclosures could be forthcoming as adjustable rate mortgages reset. On the other hand, the majority of Americans are employed and the improving economic data is probably giving consumers some confidence, even if the sentiment surveys are less clear.

Plus, the Commerce Department's data is backed up

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Andy Xie (Caijing.com.cn): Why one bubble burst deserves another, September 28, 2009. The financial crisis taught crucial lessons about the dangers of bubbles, loose regulation and debt. It’s a pity we didn’t learn.

• John Hussman (Hussman Funds): Zen lessons in market analysis, October 11, 2009. The best way of preparing for the future is to take good care of the present, because we know that if the present is made up of the past, then the future will be made up of the present.

• John Authers (Financial Times): Manufactured surprises will keep stocks rolling, October 10, 2009. A stronger recovery would help earnings but would also bring the risk of higher interest rates to

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