by Edward Hugh: Barcelona Yesterday, the Ukraine received a USD16.5bn loan from the IMF and the IMF at the same time said that it would agree with the Hungarian government on a rescue package in the coming days. Under normally circumstances this would be good news for CEE assets. However, it seems like the markets are totally giving up on CEE. This morning the Hungarian stock markets have dropped more than 10% despite the promise of an IMF package. ......it is worrying that the CEE markets continue to sell-off despite IMF’s clear commitment to support the region’s markets and economies. One might in fact see the lack of positive response to IMF’s rescue packages for Hungary and the Ukraine as an indication that these packages are in fact making the markets even more nervous that something “is seriously wrong in CEE”. Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst Danske Bank, CEE: Markets fail to respond ...

Michael Santoli had a great one liner in his StreetWise column.THE OUTSIZED FOCUS LAST WEEK ON THE DOW'S REACHING "official" bear-market status with a 20% decline from a recent high is a bit like fixating on the moment that storm winds go from 73 to 74 miles per hour to formally become a hurricane.He also mentioned that oil was up 25% since May 1. I hadn't thought of it in those terms but anyone's perception of fundamentals notwithstanding, 25% in two months creates a meaningful headwind for further price rises in the near term.In an environment like this that headwind could be overcome to be sure but with energy now 16% of the S&P 500 an equalweight position takes on a little more risk for downside volatility than some folks may realize.

By Jason Simpkins Associate Editor Crude futures closed at yet another record high yesterday (Wednesday) after government data showed a decline in crude inventories. The news followed a separate report from the International Energy Agency that said oil supplies would remain tight through 2013. The U.S. Energy Department yesterday reported a decline of 2 million barrels in crude supplies last week. As a result, August crude climbed $2.60 to settle at an all-time high of $143.57 a barrel in New York. In a separate report, released Tuesday, the Paris-based IEA, said supplies of crude would remain tight for the next five years, as surging demand from emerging markets overwhelms a softening in developed countries. “Structural demand growth in developing countries and ongoing supply constraints continue to paint a tight market picture over the medium-term,” the IEA said in its Medium-Term Oil Market Report. ...

Jamba, Inc. (NASDAQ:JMBA) shareholders are throwing up everything today after shares hit $1.58.  The 52-week decline is now at -82%, that's right, WaMu bad.  So do you keep drinking the juice even if your stomach can't take it?  Stan can't. Today's buzz kill came from Wedbush Morgan, they said a slowdown in ...

A couple of great questions came in on the Seeking Alpha version of this morning's post about run-of-the-mill bear markets and I thought it would be useful to post the questions here and how I answered them.Why do you think we won't have a decline similar to what we had in '00-'03, which was a lot more than 30%?Markets cut in half every so often; the great depression, the mid 1970's; the start of this decade and I also know there was a depression in the 1870's but do not know what the market did then, there was also a bank panic in 1907 that lead to a 37% decline that year. If you notice you see the gaps in time ranging from 22 years on up.I believe the reason for this is that the market "can't" cut in half so soon after doing ...

In 2005 I travelled to the UK to study the UK banks. I should have shorted the lot of them. But I didn’t. But for the record here are my notes – written on a slow English train – about Northern Rock – and never finished. I have edited it only to remove references to my actual sources.

I put this up not to gloat (but its nice). Rather I am going to do an expose of another UK bank shortly.

I cannot gloat too much - because whilst these notes are amazingly prescient I did not make a fortune on the stock. I predicted rain - but its making an ark that counts!

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Quote:

Northern Rock – leverage mortgages to the max

Northern Rock is a very simple bank. It has only one strategy and it makes no

...

By Associated Press SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Dissident investor Carl Icahn escalated his attacks on Yahoo Inc.'s beleaguered board Wednesday in an acerbic letter demanding the directors scrap an employee severance plan that drove up the potential costs of a Microsoft Corp. takeover.If Yahoo's board clings to the severance plan, Icahn indicated he will follow through on his 3-week-old threat to ask shareholders to fire the board at the Sunnyvale-based company's Aug. 1 annual meeting. That move would also target Yahoo Chief Executive Jerry Yang, who co-founded the Internet pioneer 14 years ago and pushed for the adoption of the severance program. The plan could trigger $464 million to ...

Thank you Barry L. Ritholtz at THE BIG PICTURE for putting today's 260+ decline in the DOW in perspective. This morning's data may have made things appear worse. Providing a glimmer of hope that the U-3 unemployment rate isn't as bad as it appears, an unexpected surge in teenagers and 20-25 year olds is responsible for a chunk of the unemployment jump. More from Barry: Also possible -- a seasonal adjustment that was expected in June failed to pick up more teens applying for jobs in May "The government cautioned that the scope of the increase in the unemployment rate in May could be a statistical distortion. Month-to-month changes from April ...

Before each of my market posts there is a buy/sell call (at owner's risk!). At the start of the month I usually try to call the flavour for the coming month based on overall market conditions; which I have marked on the chart below. What is clear is having waited so long for the market to roll over (basically spent most of 2007 waiting), I jumped too early on the bullish bandwagon this year. The past 3-months have been good for bulls. Like in late 2006 there is a reasonable chance June will be another upward month. However, it is unusual to get sequence runs beyond 4 months. Look at the early 2006 decline, late 2006 advance, early 2007 advance and the late 2007/early 08 decline; all lasted around 4 months. What we are likely to see after June is a period of sideways ...

Current top-5 most active stocks on the London Stock Exchange for 9:15 am GMT:BAY (BR AIRWAYS ORD) +12.75 +6.16% 228.25p Vol: 8.5MStill a long way to go if this is to break its 7-month decline. 250.00p key resistance. ALD (ALBIDON ORD) +12.50 +6.08% 218.00p Vol: 78,719Has enjoyed steady growth from 100.00p. Volume strong, set up for another good day?KENZ (KENTZ ORD) +9.50 +5.32% 188.00p Vol: 54,562Breaking from a 4-week period of tight trading. Since trading around 120.00p in February it hasn't looked back. TLPR (TULLETT PREBON) +22.25 +4.96% 471.00p Vol: 376,494Bound by a bearish bias sideways pattern. Currently working off support; resistance around 520.00pSL- (STD LIFE ORD) +10.00 +4.12% 252.50p Vol: 1.43MWatch for ...