THE COMMON ELEMENTS OF SUCCESS:  A really good synopsis of Van Tharp’s latest book over at the Kirk Report. 

CONFIRMATION BIAS:  You better put it in your basket of mind games.  You are going to face it whether you recognize it or not.

TRADE WITH AN EMPTY MIND:  or just be stupid! 

TIGER WOODS AND LOSS AVERSION: Playing it safe could cost you more money than the risk.  Just ask Tiger?

IT IS NOT ABOUT THE SYSTEM:  It is more about learning and developing as a trader in order to use the system properly. 

And with the market playing tricks again, some quotes to leave you with:

“Nobody like change except a wet baby.” Mark Twain

“Success gives you the confidence to be patient with your failures.”  Eric Rohmann

“The only worse thing than waiting is

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A recent Bloomberg article was titled”Pandit “near death” hoard signals lower bank profits“, and stated that Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. were hoarding cash as if another crisis were on the way. Also, a Wall Street Journal article entitled “Jittery Companies Stash Cash“ showed cash on the balance sheets of S&P 500 companies was the highest in 40 years.

The chart below, courtesy of economist David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates, shows that credit is still contracting as banks go through the painful process of repairing their balance sheets. As indicated, bank lending has now declined for 21 weeks in a row and over this entire period a total of $216 billion (15% at an annual rate) of loans and leases has vanished.

“The contraction

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I concluded a post on stock markets over the weekend saying: “After equities’ seven-month climb, stock markets certainly look vulnerable for a decline. Two downside reversal days - on Wednesday and Friday - would seem to indicate that stocks could commence a pullback to work off the overbought condition, allowing fundamentals to reassert themselves.”

Global stock markets, as well as other risky assets, closed sharply lower over the past few days as concerns mounted over the sustainability of the global economic recovery and the outlook for central bank policy.

The performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the charts below, with the top one showing the period from the March 9 stock market lows until October 19 peak and the second one the subsequent period. The numbers indicate an all-change pattern in the performances as risk aversion re-entered financial markets and government bonds and the US

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The stock market has become overheated since exploding off its March lows and could be in for a strong correction, economist David Rosenberg told CNBC.

“It is overvalued by at least 20%,” Rosenberg, formerly chief economist at Merrill Lynch and now with Gluskin Sheff & Associates, said in an interview. “But it comes down to what your view in corporate earnings (is) going to be. By the time you’re up 60% from any egregiously oversold low, you’ve already got the earnings recovery.”

Source: CNBC, October 27, 2009.

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David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist of Gluskin Sheff & Associates, discusses the outlook for the stock market in the video below.

“My view is that we are still in a secular bear market … My big concern is that the market has gotten ahead of the economy. The S&P is pricing in $85 dollars of operating earnings which would be a doubling from where we are right now, and it usually takes four to five years to double earnings off a recession low … The market has clearly overshot the fundamentals,” said Rosenberg.

Source: CNBC, October 19, 2009.

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Despite the seemingly bad jobs number we had earlier today, one has to step back and assess the bigger picture. The numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show blips (red circles in the image below) in the recovery, but still the general trend (green slope) is intact. The perma-bears are celebrating on this blip, as shown by this writeup from David Rosenberg: "There's no other way to describe the U.S. employment report that was just released for September. And guess what? The rose-colored glass donning set of economists who have been talking about sequential improvement in the data and how "less negative" the employment numbers have become can't say that after today (thank the good lord). That's because at -263,000 on nonfarm payrolls, instead of the -175,000 print that was widely expected, we actually saw sequential deterioration for the ...

The longer the rally persists, the more dangerous it becomes.

The S&P 500 is up almost 60% since March. The Dow just had its best quarter since ’98.

Yesterday, the Dow slipped 29 points. Is the rally finally rolling over? Or is this a genuine bull market, just taking a pause?

If it is a real bull market it’s a funny-looking bull – one that is missing parts!

For example, corporate earnings are missing. P/E ratios are rising far above the corporate earnings that support them. This puts the market 35% overvalued on a cyclically-adjusted P/E basis, says Smithers & Co.

And if you look at it in terms of its “q” ratio – a comparison of capitalisation and replacement costs – the S&P is even more overvalued. As for emerging markets, “they’re off the charts,” says the Financial Times.

Another missing part is the consumer. This from David Rosenberg:

“ Consumer confidence not only

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• David Rosenberg (Financial Times): Equities carry too much risk, September 23, 2009. The banker J.P. Morgan was fond of saying: “I never buy at lows, I never sell at the highs, I play the middle 60 per cent.” Well, from our lens, we are well past that middle 60 per cent point of this bear market rally.

• Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg (Financial Times): An economics of magical thinking, September 23, 2009. Confidence seems to be returning to markets almost everywhere, but the debates about what caused the worst crisis since the Great Depression show no sign of letting up. Instead, the spotlight has shifted from bankers, financial engineers and regulators to economists and their theories. This is not a

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The inflation/deflation debate is hot… It crackles and pops like a pine fire. But it gives off little helpful light. Abe Lincoln may have read by the light of an open fire. But when we tried it, we singed our eyebrows. It made us suspicious of Old Abe; maybe he wasn’t quite as truthful as he pretended to be. Later, we realized he was a mountebank. But that’s another story…

Today, we light a candle and try to interpret the shadows on the wall…

Yesterday, the Dow fell 81 points. Gold dropped $5 to $1009.

Will the feds succeed in causing inflation? Or will they fail? Will the dollar continue to go down? Or will it prove to be a safe haven currency in a time of deflationary trouble?

According to the papers, the feds have already done it. “Fed says recovery underway,” says a headline from yesterday’s press.

Another headline tells us that

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You wanna know what is going on? David Rosenberg explains…

“US consumers are cutting back, and where they are not cutting back, they are scaling down. This new cycle is all about ‘getting small’ and it is deflationary. For yet another in the litany of signs pointing in the direction of social change towards thrift, have a look at what is transpiring at the upper echelons of the income strata – Now Even Millionaires See the Benefits of Budgeting on page B5 of the Saturday NYT is a must read.

“Not only are the rich trading down, but the article quotes a high net worth financial advisor who said ‘many of our clients are very happy to be sitting on bond portfolios and cash reserves.’ And see the article on page 2 of the Sunday NYT – Beauty Products Lose Some Appeal During Recession. According to the NPD Research Group, total sales

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