Slow Down… or Else By David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report

On a whim following our Denver Summit – and despite truly abysmal weather – Casey Research CEO Olivier Garret and I cabbed it down to a local public golf course for a quick nine holes. Afterwards we were returning to the hotel through a neighborhood best described as poor, but not disreputable. While our cab made its way down a side street, a radar gun-wielding policeman leaped out of the bushes down the block, pulled the trigger, and waved our immigrant cab driver to the curb. The offense, we soon learned, was going five miles an hour over the speed limit in a school zone… well after school was out and with no other children in sight.

Waiting for

A bias to buy dollars remains…Looks like coordinated jawboning…Fujii now talks about intervening! Gold remains below $1,000…And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well… Stop the presses… You know the presses that are talking about the countries that are on the docket to begin a rate hike cycle, because… Russia has thrown a cat among the pigeons this morning with a rate CUT… Let me tell you why this is a big deal…

Well, when everyone is thinking that the G0-GO countries of Norway, Australia, and Brazil will probably begin their rate hike cycles this year, and other won’t be far behind… While the U.S. drags its feet and wallows in the zero rate mud… The thinking was that the rate differentials to the dollar would begin to widen, causing even more pain for the dollar. And, the reason these countries were able to raise rates

Currencies rally on Retail Sales! China likes investments in Canada…Big Ben the “inflation fighter”…Gold climbs to $1,018! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Good news for me this morning, the pain in my left knee has subsided… Now, If I could just get that swelling to go down, I’d be in tall cotton! This has been quite the ordeal on the old Pfennig writer, and one that I will be glad to put in the rear view mirror!

Well… When I turned on the currency screens this morning, the euro was trading with a 1.47 handle! WOW! It just skipped to my Lou right through the 1.46 handle, eh? It began yesterday afternoon, the dollar was getting sold on the news of a strong Retail Sales figure, more on that in

Consumer Borrowing Collapses…What’s up with sterling? Option ARMs get ready to reset…Gold falls back to below $1,000…And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well… The currencies, for the most part, kept the heat on the dollar throughout the day and in the overnight markets. The euro, did rise to 1.45 and change yesterday, while it is hovering right at that figure this morning, so it did give a little bit back.

There were no big announcements last night like we saw on Monday, so the currencies didn’t have anything to push them further. In fact, there may be a “letting the dust settle” period of time, with the Big Dog, euro, before we see any further advancement, given the euro’s huge gains yesterday…

We did have “Mr. Yen” Sakakibara, tell a crowd of people that he

Chinese stocks rise 5%! Risk Assets follow! OECD forecasts faster global rowth…Gold & Silver kicking sand again! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Let’s hope it remains a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday later today, as I head downtown to watch my beloved Cardinals play a day game! For those of you who are baseball fans, you know what I mean when I carry on about how baseball should only be played during the day!

OK… Before I get to the currencies, economies and the dolts in the world, I wanted to briefly talk

ZEW says Germany is on the mend…  UK inflation remains higher than expected…  Safe Haven, what safe haven?  Housing data remains soft… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well… I received an injection of steroids into my left knee yesterday, and already today, I can tell that they are working their magic! I guess I’ll have to give up my plans to try out for the Cardinals next year, now! HA! So, my knee is recovering from 3-weeks of agonizing pain and swelling… I’ve got that going for me!

And the currencies seem to be recovering this morning too, from the recent go around in the ring with the risk aversion campers. The currencies (except yen), were last seen yesterday up against the rope, doing their best imitation of the rope-a-dope.

But… This morning… The markets are just giddy about two pieces of data from Europe… First, German Investor Confidence

Currencies rally…  Eurozone growth unexpectedly stronger!  FOMC extends QE…  Norges is the first! And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Well… Turn-around Tuesday came 24 hours later this week! HA! Yes, the currencies came back yesterday, but not with a lot of conviction… You see… Stocks rallied, but that doesn’t mean what I talked about yesterday still won’t happen… Be careful there!

The euro has received some additional love this morning, as the Eurozone’s economic growth printed better than expected, albeit still negative… But… Germany and France showed growth, which I must say is very unexpected! That means that both Germany and France have exited the recession… Well, that is at least for now! For those of you keeping score at home, Eurozone GDP fell -.1%, which is far better than the -.5% that was expected… Oh! And this is for the 2nd QTR… You would have to

Today’s guest is David Galland, the managing director of Casey Research. David’s going to give us a look through the trained eyes of the Casey Researchers at the energy sector, more specifically, natural gas. So take a look and see why David thinks cheap doesn’t always mean buy. As always, be sure to leave us a comment on your energy strategies.

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At the height of its late 2005 rally, natural gas in the U.S. was selling for just over $16/MMBtu, 350% higher than today’s price of $3.56. The oil/gas ratio, now over 18, is an all-time high… suggesting that natural gas is dirt cheap. So, it’s a buy, right?

In a phrase, not exactly.

According to a recent report by Natural Gas Intelligence, U.S. natural gas available for production “has jumped 58% in the past four years, driven by improved drilling techniques and the discovery

The low for gold was at the Sydney open, and from there it rose slowly and steadily through Far East, London and Comex trading in New York. The high came in electronic trading about an hour after the Comex close. Gold managed to make it to $928…but was not allowed a sniff of $930 yesterday. Maybe today.

Although trading appeared quiet, the usual N.Y. commentator said otherwise…”Today’s up $5 June gold Comex close [at $926.70] was quietly dramatic. A rally effort on the Comex open was contained under $3 on very heavy volume [41,523 lots estimated by 9 a.m.]. Very powerful attempts to move gold up after 12 noon were also blocked. Estimated volume jumped 25.6% in the 12 noon/1 p.m. space for a totally reversed gain of $2. An astonishing 36.4% [20,000 contracts] leap in estimated volume between 1 p.m. and the close [less than a tenth of the trading

598K jobs lost in January…  Currencies rally with stocks…  G-7 this weekend…  More thoughts on Gold… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

OK… Let’s get this ball rolling, eh? The currencies had a nice rally on Friday, as the Jobs Jamboree turned out to be a horror show… But I don’t think it was the Jobs Jamboree horror show that pushed the euro and other currencies higher. I think it was the stock market rally. Recall, last week, when I told you that the stocks and currencies had been trading side by side, which wasn’t something we normally see, as they have different pricing mechanisms, and a low correlation to each other. But they were