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Prieur’s readings (October 11, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (October 11th, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• John Authers (Financial Times): Financialisation genie set loose, October 7, 2009. Not long ago, there were three asset classes: stocks, bonds and cash. Some were not even sure if cash counted as an asset class. The last few decades, however, have seen the “financialization” of swathes of the world economy where prices were not previously set by markets, or at least not by markets led by the same investors who also set the prices of stocks and bonds. But financialization has led to controversy since last year’s crisis.

• Randall Forsyth (Barron’s): Away from Wall Street, credit keeps contracting, October 8, 2009. Financial markets party on Fed largesse, little of which flows to Main Street.

• Eamon Javers

...

Supply, demand, and the price of oil

James Hamilton (May 31st, 2009) Writes:

Do recently rising oil prices signal a resurgence of economic growth?

In the WSJ Blog Environmental Capital, Russell Gold writes of

a growing belief that the economy could be regaining its footing and oil prices will climb to the price that OPEC is willing and able to defend.... "[T]here would be no reason why the current price rally could not extend to $75 within a fairly rapid timeframe," [Paul] Horsnell wrote in his weekly overview of oil-market conditions. Believers in oil-market fundamentals are left scratching their heads. Exxon Mobil Corp. chairman and chief executive Rex Tillerson told reporters earlier this week that he couldn't see any reasons involving supply and demand to push up oil prices. He attributed the recent oil rally to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and people trying to get in front of a perceived economic recovery.

The first point I'd emphasize about this hypothesis

...

Oil shocks and recessions

James Hamilton (April 25th, 2009) Writes:

Here I provide some more background on the relation between oil price increases and economic recessions.

When I first began working on my Ph.D. dissertation in 1980, I was intrigued by the fact that the oil embargo of 1973-74 and the collapse in Iranian oil production after the revolution in 1978 were both followed by global recessions. But when I called attention to the fact there had been a sharp increase in the price of oil prior to 6 of the 7 postwar U.S. recessions up to that point, the general response was one of skepticism.

By the time I was presenting evidence of this relation at various seminars in 1981-82, the Iran-Iraq War had produced yet another shock to world oil markets and the NBER declared that the U.S. experienced a new recession immediately on the heels of the previous downturn, meaning that the evidence had now become that

...

Links for 12-24-08

James Hamilton (December 24th, 2008) Writes:

Today I outsource to a couple of links I found interesting:

Dave Cohen on oil prices.

Stephen Gordon on economists' fatal flaw.

James Morley on the need for a new Fed-Treasury accord.


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