The Federal Reserve decided to keep the Federal Funds rate unchanged at the meeting it concluded today, as expected. Below is the current Fed Statement along with the one from their September meeting in paragraph-by-paragraph format, with my translation and commentary interspersed. As the graph below shows, the market is expecting the Fed to remain on hold, with Fed Funds between 0 and 25 basis points for an extended period. The graph shows the expected outcomes for the January meeting (before today’s announcement) from the Cleveland Fed. The market set the odds of anything other than standing pat at either today’s meeting or the December meeting effectively at zero. Reading off the chart, it looks like about a 95% probability of no action in January as well. I doubt we will see the Fed raise rates before the third quarter of 2010. The Fed is ...

The Federal Reserve decided to keep the Fed Funds rate at its historically low level, and noted that growth was starting to pick up and there was very little threat of near-term inflation. The current statement and the one from the previous meeting (8/12) are presented below, along with my analysis of the statements and the differences between them. "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn. Conditions in financial markets have improved further, and activity in the housing sector has increased. Household spending seems to be stabilizing, but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales....

Contraction Slowing, Inflation Not ImmediateThe Fed's statement from this month's meeting is presented below, along with its previous statement from the April meeting and my interpretation and commentary interspersed."Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales."Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, ...

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL - June 15, 2009 - Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week's list includes Adobe Systems (ADBE), Best Buy (BBY), Carnival (CCL), FedEx (FDX) and J.M. Smucker (SJM). To see more earnings analysis, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=3207.

Every day, Zacks.com makes 4 stock picks available, free of charge. To see them, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=3567.

The Week's Events

We will see initial second-quarter numbers with Adobe Systems (ADBE), Best Buy (BBY), Carnival (CCL), FedEx (FDX) and J.M. Smucker (SJM) reporting this week. Notably missing from the group are the investment bankers, the surviving members of which have changed to traditional calendar quarters.

Though there are five S&P 500 companies reporting, the earnings calendar is

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We will see initial second-quarter numbers with Adobe Systems (

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We highlight Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).Below we present both the most recent Federal Reserve statement and the previous one from its mid-March meeting along with my translation and interpretation interspersed between the paragraphs."Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower."Household spending has shown signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Weak sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories, fixed investment, and staffing."Although the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of financial market conditions, economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time. Nonetheless, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions ...