From "Trade-Finance Pinch Hurts the Healthy," WSJ, 12/22/08:

The global financial crisis is drying up the financing that firms depend on for trade. That's making the global recession nastier and deeper than it otherwise would be.

As with all kinds of credit these days, financial institutions are making less trade finance available and charging more for it. But the squeeze in trade stands out because it pinches otherwise healthy companies that should be driving a recovery in global commerce. Already, the World Bank predicts trade will contract next year for the first time since 1982.

The Deteriorating Trade Outlook

Here's the IMF's recent forecasts for exports -- from October and then November -- for world trade, disaggregated into advanced and developing country groupings.

Figure 1: Real goods and services exports by country group. Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Oct. 2008; Nov. 6 WEO update.

These developments in trade financing suggest that

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I don't usually read Bill Kristol's column, but once in a while, my eyes get caught by a headline (that's the difference between reading online and "on paper"), and I'll check out what he has to say. The other day, I read his column "Admit we don't know" on the current economic crisis that, while not in my mind "wrong", seemed puzzling to me. Pay attention to the last paragraph (highlighted in bold).

...basically, it seems to me, we're all flying blind. The markets are spiraling down, and our leading experts don't have much of a clue as to what to do.

Given that, one has to welcome the expected appointment to senior positions in the Obama administration of economists like Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, Jason Furman, Peter Orszag, and Goolsbee himself. They're sober and competent people who know we face a real crisis -- and who, importantly, may be more

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By Claus Vistesen: Copenhagen

There are many perspectives through which to look at economic development and growth. Geography, institutions or perhaps just plain good old physical capital accumulation are all important parameters. This small piece suggests a further metric and attempts to frame the argument with Chile as a case study.

Specfifically, this note explains the process known as the demographic dividend and conceptualizes it in a Chilean context. The analysis shows how Chile during the last two decades has benefited from the dividend proxied by the increasingly favorable trend in overall age structure of the society. By some measures Chile’s demographic dividend is thus ending during these very years. Yet, by adapting a slightly broader definition of the optimal working age and subsequent productivity profile, it appears that Chile still finds itself in the proverbial sweet spot and will continue to do so for the next decade. Coupled with

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By Claus Vistesen: Copenhagen

There are many perspectives through which to look at economic development and growth. Geography, institutions or perhaps just plain good old physical capital accumulation are all important parameters. This small piece suggests a further metric and attempts to frame the argument with Chile as a case study.

Specfifically, this note explains the process known as the demographic dividend and conceptualizes it in a Chilean context. The analysis shows how Chile during the last two decades has benefited from the dividend proxied by the increasingly favorable trend in overall age structure of the society. By some measures Chile’s demographic dividend is thus ending during these very years. Yet, by adapting a slightly broader definition of the optimal working age and subsequent productivity profile, it appears that Chile still finds itself in the proverbial sweet spot and will continue to do so for the next decade. Coupled with

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Like I said in my weekend thematic summary I have been working on a country analysis/outlook for Chile. Now, why the heck am I writing about Chile now, you might ask. Clearly, some are already busy telling me to shut up all together, or to stop saying stuff about economies and regions of which, according to them, I know nothing about. I am afraid that those people won't be getting their way. I am far too nosy and curious to listen to such "suggestions".

In this first installment, I am looking at the more long term drivers of economic growth in Chile as well as I try to contextualize how demographics might assist us in our perspective on the economic facts. The background for my sudden interest in Chile (as well as in Thailand and Brazil) can be found here where Edward

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