Ian Mathias (The Daily Reckoning): The U.S. government will finish its historic streak of debt sales today with a record $16 billion offering of 30-year bonds. This will pile on top the $65 billion in 3-year and 10-year paper auctioned earlier this week, both records in their own right.

It’s worth noting that Monday’s auction for 3-year debt was met with ravenous, near-record demand and that Tuesday’s 10-year sale met a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.8… historically high for the 10-year, but not even close to the 3.3 ratio for the shorter dated bonds the day before.

“The market is sending many errant signals right now,” notes Dan Amoss. “U.S. policymakers are trying to reinflate stocks, houses and wages, while also recapitalizing an undercapitalized banking system with overt and covert subsidies. All of these actions are extraordinarily costly — so costly that creditors are getting nervous.

For the rest of the

Naturally, at the focus of renewed market pessimism is a struggling financial: CIT Group. (NYSE:CIT) The company — a hundred-year-old staple of small/medium business lending — is no stranger to walking the credit tightrope. They narrowly averted fiscal meltdown late last year with $2.3 billion in TARP bucks… then again in July by goosing bondholders with a $3 billion a debt-to-equity deal. Back then we joked, “Look for this crisis to repeat in a couple weeks.” We were wrong… it took a couple months.

So with some historic irony, one year and two weeks after Lehman Bros. bit the dust, another debt-burdened, credit-reliant, potentially “too big to fail” institution is looking to either stick its bondholders with a raw deal or enter sudden bankruptcy. We won’t pretend to know exactly how this one will end, but the market has certainly voiced its opinion:

The FDIC is considering tapping its emergency line of credit with the Treasury. FDIC Chair Sheila Bair recently hinted after a speech at Georgetown University that all options are on the table when it comes time to replenish the dwindling Deposit Insurance Fund. We’ll find out more in the next few weeks after the FDIC board of directors meets.

Stock market bulls aren’t concerned about the inevitable acceleration in bank failures — at least for now. Even though deposits will be insured against loss, the loss of local banks will still have a depressing effect on hundreds of small communities. These communities are going to lose their only access to business credit when their local zombie banks — loaded with toxic construction or commercial real estate loans — are liquidated or merged into other weak banks.

Meanwhile, the latest monthly figures show that commercial bank balance sheets are shrinking at a fairly

Looks like another government arm will soon be knocking on the Treasury’s door: “We are currently considering all options, including borrowing from the Treasury,” said FDIC chairwoman Sheila Bair. As we’ve forecast many times, the steady collapse of banks around the U.S. has put an irreparable dent in the FDIC deposit insurance fund.

Now likely less than $10 billion strong and with more bank failures sure to come, the FDIC faces two choices: Raise their taxes on banks to bolster the fund or tap the Treasury. Given the health of the U.S. banking system and the tendencies of our government over the last decade, you can probably guess which Bair will chose. Here’s another hint… Barney Frank, leader of the House Financial Services Committee, has already publicly opined on what Bair should do.

The FDIC has the authority to borrow as much as $500 billion through 2010.

“Stock market bulls aren’t concerned about

As usual in Washington, it’s “Do as I say, not as I do.” While Ben Bernanke is talking up the U.S. economy, Congress and the IRS are scrambling to stop another real estate collapse.

First, the political left and National Association of Realtors are in the process of extending the now famous “first time homebuyer tax credit.” The initial plan, which was passed around this time last year and allows first-time homebuyers an $8,000 tax credit, is on track to cost about $15 billion — double the projected budget.

Heh, and just like “cash for clunkers” going massively over budget must be a sign of scorching legislative success. Thus, the new plan is to extend the tax credit into the summer of 2010, boost the credit to $15,000 and make all potential homebuyers eligible. Those who are content with their current home and/or unwilling to invest in a new one… well, they

It was one year ago that Lehman Bros. went to the great investment bank in the sky. But it was also when the feds arranged the shotgun marriage of a failing Merrill Lynch to a moribund Bank of America (NYSE:BAC). And AIG’s collapse into federal hands was taking shape, if not yet a done deal.

Years of debt and securitization finally caught up to the FIRE (finance-insurance-real estate) sector of the economy. The titans of finance refused to come clean about the real value of the ‘assets’ they sat on…and finally it came time to pay the piper.

Dan Amoss, whose recommendation of Lehman put options generated 462% gains earlier that summer, wrote in this space a year ago, “Think about how much better off Lehman Brothers would be if its management hadn’t put off the process of reporting losses, dumping impaired assets and raising new capital. Would its stock

Hey, the economy is not only recovering…it’s becoming better than ever before!

“Banks recover to their levels before the fall of Lehman,” is a headline in this Monday’s El Pais from Madrid.

“Public assistance enables the world’s largest 15 financial firms to return to the capitalization they had in September 2008,” the article continues. The largest of the largest, HSBC, is now judged to be worth $186 billion, according to the stock market. China’s ICBC is on its heels, with a market cap of $178 billion. BNP Paribas is 7th at $87 billion.

We will overlook the compromising detail that banks actually lost money in the last quarter – more than $3 billion. And let’s forget that China’s major banks are sitting on mega-losses from more than eight years ago (to say nothing of the more recent losses). Western banks, too, still have billions in assets whose real worth is an open question…and

Chinese stocks plummet, worldly markets follow… what’s behind today’s sell-off… Dan Denning on taking profits in the twilight of the U.S. stock rebound… India reports better-than-expected GDP growth… why our Mumbai partners are still hesitant… Another compelling argument against U.S. banks… Dan Amoss serves the cold, hard data… Plus, signs of the times: American’s vote to throw the bums out while the free market backlash hits Hollywood…

China has once again set the tone for our Monday market forecast. Roll the videotape:

Chinese traders dumped shares early this morning after a popular magazine rumored that the booming Chinese loan market is cooling off. Caijing magazine guessed that the Chinese loaned about $29 billion in August, a 43% crash from July. While that number isn’t official, traders around the red nation raced for the exits. The Shanghai Composite closed down 6.7%, its worst day in

With vacation season ending in the Northern Hemisphere, we’ll start to see analysis rooted in experience and common sense driving stock prices. Through much of the summer, trading has been dominated by “quant” funds that are prone to “garbage in, garbage out” decision systems. You can see it in the tick-by-tick movements and in Level 2 quotes. These quant funds typically use backward-looking data on the U.S. economy to drive trading decisions, rather than assess how the outlook for the global economy has changed in the wake of last fall’s panic.

Consider this likely scenario: The heavy retail investor inflows into corporate bond funds last spring (far in advance of the peak in defaults, by the way) undoubtedly helped push corporate bond spreads down. The quant funds’ models detected this movement, concluded that the recession might be over, and proceeded to buy stocks that are highly sensitive to future U.S. consumer

The bank failure scene in the U.S. turned a shade uglier over the weekend. By this time tomorrow, it’ll probably be even worse.

For starters, Guaranty Financial of Texas went belly up late Friday and secured a spot in the history books. With $13 billion in “assets,” the bank is the third largest to fail this year and tied for the 11th biggest bank failure in U.S. history.

Even more interestingly, the FDIC brokered Guaranty’s assets to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, a bank from northern Spain. We’re surprised on two fronts here: 1) That a bank from Spain — strapped with double-digit unemployment and a wretched housing bust — wants to bring their euros to I.O.U.S.A. 2) That BBVA already has a huge presence in Texas. With this acquisition, they will be the fourth largest banking chain in the Lone Star State. That could be an interesting trend to watch.

Three other