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Albert Edwards still uber bearish, calls for new lows in 2010

Prieur du Plessis (November 13th, 2009) Writes:

The post below is republished courtesy of Trader Mark, writer of the Fund My Mutual Fund blog (hat tip: Damien Hoffman of Wall St Cheat Sheet).

Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards is generally considered an uber bear, although there were times in the past year he has tactically increased exposure to equities to take advantage of oversold conditions. Now is not one of those times. In fact, Edwards chimes in with many similar thoughts we’ve posted on the fundamentals … but sticks his neck out calling for new lows in 2010.

While the belief from this blog writer is this will all end badly, knowing when and how will be the ultimate question. Without the massive intervention by central banks and governments we’d have a different landscape; and without knowing to what lengths these people will continue to go to, it’s much more difficult to predict the intermediate

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Interview: Jim Rogers on gold, bubbles, commodites, equities, and Roubini

Prieur du Plessis (November 11th, 2009) Writes:

This is a guest contribution by Damien Hoffman, editor of the very popular Wall St Cheat Sheet blog.

Rogers is one of the most respected investors in the world. I had a chance to chat with him the other morning to get more details about some of his recent comments in the media …

rogersDamien Hoffman: Jim, you were in the media a few times last week and I want to follow up on a few points you made. You said on Bloomberg that Nouriel Roubini did not do his homework regarding the asset bubbles about which he is now warning. Can you explain what homework he did not do?

Jim: All of it. How can you talk about a bubble when assets such as

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Interview: Professor David Colander tells Congress econ models are flawed

Prieur du Plessis (November 3rd, 2009) Writes:

This is a guest contribution by Damien Hoffman, editor of the very popular Wall St Cheat Sheet blog.

metal-of-honor

This may sound like common sense to investors and traders, but most people - including policy makers - do not readily accept the flawed nature of economic models.

Thank goodness we have professor David Colander testifying to Congress in order to enlighten an otherwise dim room. Colander’s work at Middlebury College focuses on the incentives and work-product of economists. His work has become increasingly more important as economists have heavily influenced policy making in recent years.

In addition to exposing a few absurd underlying economic presuppositions such as “individuals behave with rational self-interest,” Colander is helping shift incentives for professional economists away from publishing toward engaging in more useful studies.

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Interview: Professor David Colander tells Congress econ models are flawed

Prieur du Plessis (November 3rd, 2009) Writes:

This is a guest contribution by Damien Hoffman, editor of the very popular Wall St Cheat Sheet blog.

metal-of-honor

This may sound like common sense to investors and traders, but most people - including policy makers - do not readily accept the flawed nature of economic models.

Thank goodness we have professor David Colander testifying to Congress in order to enlighten an otherwise dim room. Colander’s work at Middlebury College focuses on the incentives and work-product of economists. His work has become increasingly more important as economists have heavily influenced policy making in recent years.

In addition to exposing a few absurd underlying economic presuppositions such as “individuals behave with rational self-interest,” Colander is helping shift incentives for professional economists away from publishing toward engaging in more useful studies.

...

How to save a friend from the false prophet Nouriel Roubini

Prieur du Plessis (October 21st, 2009) Writes:

This is a guest contribution by Damien Hoffman, editor of the very popular Wall St Cheat Sheet blog. Make sure to add this site to your must-read list.

In August I wrote an article “Is Nouriel Roubini a false prophet?” Apparently, some people are so smitten with Roubini they actually ignored all the cited articles and said, “No”. Consequently, I teamed up with a group of people around the world on an open source project to continue our mission exposing false prophets and help unwash those well-meaning brains.

The video below is a large collection of evidence proving Roubini has an horrendous record as a prognosticator. If you too know someone who has been listening to the seductive sounds of Roubini’s mantras, send them this helpful deprogramming message.

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Medal of Honor: Top analyst Josh Rosner nailed the crisis

Prieur du Plessis (September 23rd, 2009) Writes:

This is a guest contribution by Damien Hoffman, editor-in-chief of the very popular Wall St Cheat Sheet blog. Make sure to put this site on your must-read list.

josh-rosner

Josh Rosner is the inaugural recipient of our first annual Medal of Honor for Excellent Service Award. Like a Navy Seal who does the most elite work yet receives the least public spotlight, Rosner has for years consistently been one of the best analysts on Wall Street. Most importantly, while other false prophets had undeservedly taken credit for nailing the crisis (for the wrong reasons), Rosner and a small handful of other hard working analysts saw and called everything for the right reasons in real-time.

For this reason, Rosner

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Interview with John Mauldin

Prieur du Plessis (September 14th, 2009) Writes:

This is a guest contribution by Damien Hoffman, editor-in-chief of the very popular Wall St Cheat Sheet blog. Make sure to put this site on your must-read list.

john-mauldin-14-sep-2009

John Mauldin coined the incredibly popular phrase, “Muddle Through Economy.” If the next few years continue to drag along as we rebuild from the greatest credit bubble in history, then John’s term may become the catch phrase used by every financial journalist and economist in the land.

John is a passionate traveler with business partners all over the world. He also puts out a free newsletter to over one million people world-wide. This reach of friends and travels gives John an excellent macro view of the world economy. Further, his

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Techniques used by false prophets and charlatans

Prieur du Plessis (September 4th, 2009) Writes:

This is a guest contribution by Damien Hoffman, editor-in-chief of the very popular Wall St Cheat Sheet blog. Make sure to put this site on your must-read list.

nouriel-roubini

Nouriel Roubini and His Acolytes

Following the incredible popularity of my post “Is Nouriel Roubini a False Prophet?“, I’ve decided to do a little introductory lesson for those more interested in avoiding charlatans …

Cold Reading is a primary set of techniques employed by phony psychics and market prognosticators. When cold reading, the primary objective of the sender is to ensure that the recipient perceives the statement/prophecy to be a hit. Here are a few classic techniques used by Ms. Cleo and Nouriel Roubini:

TECHNIQUE 1. The “Rainbow Ruse”: Indicate one trait

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Prieur’s readings (August 22, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (August 22nd, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Andy Xie (Caijing.com.cn): New bubble threatens a V-shaped rebound, August 20, 2009. Instead of a V-shaped recovery, we may instead get a W curve. A dip next year, although perhaps not statistically deep, could deliver a profound psychological shock. Financial markets are buoyant now because they believe in the government. The second dip would demonstrate the limits of government power. The second dip could send asset prices down - and keep them down for a long time.

• Economist.com: U, V or W for recovery, August 20, 2009. The world economy has stopped shrinking. That’s the end of the good news.

• Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph): There’s no quick fix to the global economy’s excess capacity,

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Video-o-rama: Goldman Sachs ad nauseam

Prieur du Plessis (July 18th, 2009) Writes:

I am experiencing Internet problems and have difficulty accessing my data sources. This week’s video compilation is therefore posted without the usual introductory paragraphs. But I’m sure the interesting clips will speak for themselves.

Wall St Cheat Sheet: AIG - writing stories about people who play “it” safe “Evidently, AIG is a company that plays ‘it’ safe (whatever the hell that means) and knows how to manage risk better than anyone else in the known universe. Don’t believe me? Take their word for it. We let corporations falsely advertise all the time, and here is a perfect example of the cost.”

videorama-pic1

Source: Damien Hoffman, Wall St Cheat Sheet, July 15, 2009.

Bloomberg: Shiller, Roubini discuss “anemic” economic recovery “Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, and Robert Shiller, chief economist and co-founder

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