<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Stock Market News &#38; Stocks to Watch from StraightStocks &#187; Czech Republic</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.straightstocks.com/tag/czech-republic/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.straightstocks.com</link>
	<description>Leading Stock Market News, Opinions and Commentary</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 25 Nov 2009 01:50:35 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5</generator>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
			<item>
		<title>Citi Expects Strong Economic Growth &#8211; Analyst Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/citi-expects-strong-economic-growth-analyst-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/citi-expects-strong-economic-growth-analyst-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 22:37:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zacks Market Commentaries</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Analyst]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Argentina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citigroup Inc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Korea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/27607/Citi+Expects+Strong+Economic+Growth+-+Analyst+Blog</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<strong><br />
Citigroup Inc.</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/c">C</a>) forecasts strong economic growth in many countries in 2010. But although the company expects several countries to experience economic growth, it predicts that the growth will be somewhat uneven.<br />
<br />
According to the annual report of Citi&#8217;s Investment Research and Analysis group, though growth will be strong and even across major economies in the beginning of the year, it will be uneven later. Citi expects Asia, excluding Japan, to experience sustained economic growth. Though the U.S. is expected to see fairly strong economic growth, the recovery will be more gradual in Europe and Japan.<br />
<br />
Citi also upgraded its 2010 gross domestic product forecasts for the U.S., Japan, the U.K., Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Korea, Argentina, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Turkey.<br />
<br />
The report also suggested that Central Banks are unlikely to hike key interest rates through the next year. However, credit availability is expected to remain restricted at least for a year or two as banks seek to raise additional capital under regulatory pressure. Also, inflation on a global basis appears to be controlled. Additionally, countries will need to achieve fiscal sustainability to post strong economic growth.<br />
<br />
The rankings of global economies are expected to change significantly in the next 5 to 15 years as Asia is predicted to experience rapid industrialization and increased domestic demand while resource-rich regions such as Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, Russia and Brazil see growth.<br />
<br />
Citi is a leading global financial services company and has approximately 200 million customer accounts, doing business in more than 140 countries. Hence, the company&#8217;s earnings will be benefited with the accuracy of the forecast.<br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=C">Read the full analyst report on "C"</a><br /><a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks Investment Research</a><br />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/citi-expects-strong-economic-growth-analyst-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>DrStockPick.com Stock Report! 11/23/09, FE, PWRM, ARRS, CRBC, FIF, LCC</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/drstockpick-com-stock-report-112309-fe-pwrm-arrs-crbc-fif-lcc/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/drstockpick-com-stock-report-112309-fe-pwrm-arrs-crbc-fif-lcc/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:26:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr. Stock Pick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[advertisement services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Akron]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ARRIS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BKS Capital Partners]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Breast Cancer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CAES Development Company LLC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cancer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cathleen H. Nash]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Charles D. Christy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citizens Republic Bancorp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crown Equity Holdings Inc.;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[diagnostic tests]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dr Stock Pick]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elsat s.r.o.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy storage technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[executive vice president and Chief Financial Officer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Federal Corp.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FirstEnergy Corp.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FirstEnergy Generation Corp.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kabelova Televize Koprivnice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[leader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LICA s.r.o.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[neurodegenerative disease;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York City]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Norton;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ohio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[People’s United Financial Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Power 3 Medical Products Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Power3 Medical Products Inc.;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[president and chief executive officer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Self Servis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[state law]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock featured on our site;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[travel trade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Us Airways]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://drstockpick.com/?p=4920</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Dr Stock Pick HOT News &#38; Alerts!
_______________________________________

FREE Daily Stock Alerts From DrStockPick.com

_______________________________________
Monday Nov 23, 2009
DrStockPick.com Stock Report!
**************************************************************

Power3 Medical  Products, Inc. (OTCBB: PWRM), a leader in neurodegenerative disease and  cancer biomarkers and diagnostic tests, expects to complete phase II clinical  validation trials of its blood serum diagnostics for Alzheimer’s disease  (NuroPro-AD), and [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/drstockpick-com-stock-report-112309-fe-pwrm-arrs-crbc-fif-lcc/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Cowen’s Stone Maintains Suntech (NYSE:STP) at NEUTRAL on Q3 Earnings Report</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/cowen%e2%80%99s-stone-maintains-suntech-nysestp-at-neutral-on-q3-earnings-report/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/cowen%e2%80%99s-stone-maintains-suntech-nysestp-at-neutral-on-q3-earnings-report/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:06:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Small Cap Pulse</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Small & Micro Cap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Analyst]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cowen’s Stone Maintains Suntech]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Korea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[R]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Results Suntech]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rob Stone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[small cap pulse]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.smallcappulse.com/index.php/site/cowens_stone_maintains_suntech_nysestp_at_neutral_on_q3_earnings_report/#When:13:06:00Z</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[November 20, 2009 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Cowenrsquo;s Rob Stone weighed in on Suntechrsquo;s (NYSE:STP) Q3 financial results this morning noting that given the delayed ramp of Pluto and thin-film production, and outstanding GSF A/R exposure, he thinks shares are fairly valued. He maintains a NEUTRAL rating on the stock. 


Q3 Results


Suntech (NYSE:STP) reported Q3 revenues of $473.1 million, compared with revenues of $594.4 million for the same period last year, and $320.9 million in Q209. Gross margins in Q3 were 17.7%, down from 18.5% in Q2, and 21.5% in Q308. Net income was $30,1, or $0.16 per diluted ADS, compared with $42.5 million for the same period last year and $9.6 million in Q208. Highlights for the quarter included hitting 16.53% conversion efficiency. Management increased its FY09 shipment target from 600MW to a range of 640MW to 660MW, and an increase in total cell and module production capacity to 1.4GW by mid-2010, of which 450MW will be Pluto-enabled. 


Stonersquo;s Key Takeaways


middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Shipments to Germany should continue to grow, but account for a smaller percentage, with stronger growth in the rest of Europe (Italy, France, Czech Republic) 


middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; U.S. distribution and utility scale projects, China and other Asian markets (Australia, Korea and Japan) should also drive growth


middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Raising 2009-12E shipments to 640MW, 1.1GW, 1.6GW and 2.2GW including system integration of 37MW, 100MW, 160MW and 230MW


middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Mix of systems reduces GM by about 60 basis points in 2009, 80-100 basis points in 2011/12 but GM in 2010 reflect better H1 module ASPs


middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Raised EPS to $0.35, $0.65, $0.99 and $1.35 on revenue of $1.6B, $2.1B, $2.7B and $3.5B]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/cowen%e2%80%99s-stone-maintains-suntech-nysestp-at-neutral-on-q3-earnings-report/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>ArcelorMittal Increases Stake &#8211; Analyst Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/arcelormittal-increases-stake-analyst-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/arcelormittal-increases-stake-analyst-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:16:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zacks Market Commentaries</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Analyst]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ArcelorMittal Ostrava a.s.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crude steel capacity utilization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PPF GROUP N.V.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[steel maker;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/27272/ArcelorMittal+Increases+Stake+-+Analyst+Blog</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<br />
The leading steel maker, <strong>ArcelorMittal </strong>(<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/MT">MT</a>) announced that it has agreed to acquire a 13.881% stake in ArcelorMittal Ostrava, a.s. from a subsidiary of PPF GROUP N.V., for approximately $404.3 million. <br />
<br />
The company said that this investment is consistent with ArcelorMittal&#8217;s commitment to be one of the largest foreign investors in Czech Republic. This deal increases ArcelorMittal&#8217;s stake in ArcelorMittal Ostrava, a.s. to approximately 96.4%. The final payment for the transaction is expected to be made in 2010. <br />
<br />
The steel maker which recently posted its third quarter results said that it noticed the first signs of recovery during the reported quarter. The company saw a 7% sequential improvement in its shipments in the quarter. ArcelorMittal restarted a number of its facilities in response to the improved demand conditions and now expects crude steel capacity utilization of 70% for the fourth quarter. Also, the company has reinitiated selected growth projects in some key emerging markets. The company expects to see a gradual improvement in market conditions through 2010. <br />
<br />
In response to the recent uncertain market conditions, the company had implemented cost reduction initiatives and has achieved $2.2 billion of annualized sustainable cost reduction as of the reported quarter. Through its actions, the company has succeeded in offsetting some of the negative impact of weak market conditions. Though the profits were low compared to the previous year, the company witnessed a substantial improvement on a sequential basis.<br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=MT">Read the full analyst report on "MT"</a><br /><a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks Investment Research</a><br />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/arcelormittal-increases-stake-analyst-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Telefonica Tops on Lighter Sales &#8211; Analyst Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/telefonica-tops-on-lighter-sales-analyst-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/telefonica-tops-on-lighter-sales-analyst-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:05:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zacks Market Commentaries</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[3g]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[3G wireless;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Analyst]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Argentina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[broadband]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[broadband access;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[broadband network]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chile]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China Unicom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deutsche Telekom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France Telecom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GVT Holding SA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HSPA+ technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ireland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mobile broadband network]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Palm Inc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pay TV]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retail broadband access]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[telecom operator]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TELEFONICA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Telefonica Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Telefonica Latin America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Telesp;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vivo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vodafone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wireless access]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wireless Carrier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wireless Customers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wireless market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wireless operation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/27243/Telefonica+Tops+on+Lighter+Sales+-+Analyst+Blog</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<br />
<strong>Telefonica </strong>(<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/tef">TEF</a>) reported third-quarter 2009 results with earnings per ADS of US$1.88, comfortably beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of US$1.49. The Spanish telecom giant reported net income of &#8364;1.99 billion (US$2.85 billion), down 0.6% year over year, due to lower sales as a result of the beleaguered economy, especially in Spain.<br />
<em><strong><br />
Revenue</strong></em><br />
<br />
Consolidated revenue fell 5.7% year over year to &#8364;14.1 billion (US$20.2 billion). Revenue was impacted by weak contributions from domestic and European markets due to the recession. Latin America contributed 40% of the group revenues followed by Spain at 35% and Europe at 25%.<br />
<u><strong><br />
Result by Segments</strong></u><br />
<br />
<em><strong>Telefonica Espana</strong></em><br />
<br />
The company&#8217;s Spanish revenue declined 8.9% to &#8364;4.9 billion (US$7 billion), impacted by a reduction in mobile termination rates (inter-operator fees) and the economic downturn. Wireline business revenues fell 9.4% year over year to &#8364;2.9 billion (US$4.1 billion) while revenue from wireless operation declined 6.4% to &#8364;2.3 billion (US$3.3 billion).<br />
<br />
<em><strong>Telefonica Europe</strong></em><br />
<br />
Revenue from Europe declined 5.5% year over year to &#8364;3.5 billion (US$5 billion), especially due to lower revenue from the UK operation. Reported revenue from O2 UK (the company&#8217;s UK wireless operation and highest contributor to European sales) was &#8364;1.7 billion (US$2.4 billion), down 7% over the year-ago quarter, due to competition and termination rate cuts. Revenue from Germany increased 5.5% while in the Czech Republic they declined 15.7%.<br />
<br />
O2 UK continues to struggle, with declining revenues as the operator faces intense competition, especially from its biggest rival <strong>Vodafone </strong>(<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/vod">VOD</a>). Competition is set to intensify in the British mobile market as the other two major carriers <strong>Deutsche Telekom </strong>(<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/dt">DT</a>) and <strong>France Telecom </strong>((<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/fte">FTE</a>) have finalized an agreement to merge their UK operations. The integrated company will dethrone Telefonica as the largest wireless carrier in the UK.<br />
<em><strong><br />
Telefonica Latin America</strong></em><br />
<br />
Revenue from Latin America, which has been the principal growth engine for Telefonica in the past quarters, also fell 2.3% year over year to &#8364;5.6 billion (US$8 billion). This is due to revenue declines across key markets such as Brazil, Argentina and Chile. Revenue in Brazil (the largest market) declined 8.9% year over year to &#8364;2.2 billion (US$3.1 billion), due to weaker contribution from its Brazilian subsidiaries, Vivo and Telesp.<br />
<br />
Telefonica continues to lead the Brazilian wireless market with approximately 30% market share. The company recently made an all-cash bid to acquire Brazilian telecom operator GVT Holding SA in an effort to expand its presence in the lucrative Brazilian telecom market.<br />
<br />
<em><strong>Subscriber Results</strong></em><br />
<br />
At the end of the third quarter, total customer access points reached approximately 268.6 million, up 6.6% year over year. Subscriber accretion was driven by healthy growth in wireless, broadband and Pay TV services.<br />
<br />
Total retail broadband access grew 9.8% year over year to 13.2 million, boosted by the rapid adoption of bundled services (dual or triple play service packages). Total wireless access reached 205.9 million, with roughly 5 million net additions made during the quarter, driven by contributions from Brazil, Germany, Mexico and the UK. Pay TV access was 2.5 million, up 15.1% year over year.<br />
<br />
Spain exited the quarter with 47.3 million access lines and 24 million wireless customers. Total customer access in Latin America reached 163.7 million with nearly 3 million net additions in the quarter. Europe registered 48.6 million accesses (up 8% year over year), with the mobile customer base growing 7.3% year over year to 43.5 million.<br />
<em><strong><br />
Outlook</strong></em><br />
<br />
Telefonica has reaffirmed its financial guidance for 2009 as it expects continued increases in consolidated revenues with annual OIBDA growth projected in the range of 1 - 3%. Annual operating cash flow growth is expected in the range of 8 - 11%. Capital expenditure for 2009 is projected below &#8364;7.5 billion (US$10.2 billion), lower than 2008 level, as the company is increasingly focused on reducing spending to improve cash flow generation.<br />
<br />
The company remains committed to expanding its 3G wireless business as it has reportedly begun a commercial roll-out of its HSPA+ technology based 3G mobile broadband network in Spain that offers peak downlink speeds of 21 megabits per second. Telefonica is also set to conduct 4G network trials in six countries across Europe and Latin America during the next six months.<br />
<br />
Telefonica has expanded its handset portfolio with the recent launch of<strong> Palm Inc&#8217;s </strong>(<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/palm">PALM</a>) Pre smartphone in the UK, Spain, Ireland and Germany. The company is also aggressively pursuing expansion initiatives into other emerging markets as it recently strengthened its foothold in China through an increased stake holding in <strong>China Unicom </strong>(<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/chu">CHU</a>).<br />
<br />
The company&#8217;s dominant position in the Spanish telecom market, attractive growth prospects in Latin America and healthy dividend payouts remain positive factors for investment considerations. However, we remain cautious with regard to Telefonica&#8217;s declining wireline business, aggressive acquisition strategy and highly leveraged balance sheet.<br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=TEF">Read the full analyst report on "TEF"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=VOD">Read the full analyst report on "VOD"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=DT">Read the full analyst report on "DT"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=FTE">Read the full analyst report on "FTE"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=PALM">Read the full analyst report on "PALM"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=CHU">Read the full analyst report on "CHU"</a><br /><a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks Investment Research</a><br />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/telefonica-tops-on-lighter-sales-analyst-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Time To Stop Making Excuses</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/time-to-stop-making-excuses/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/time-to-stop-making-excuses/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:47:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Burma]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commission of European Communities;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hillary clinton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kati Marton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Medvedev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nina Ognianova]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[president]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Secretary of State]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stop Making Excuses]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vaclav Havel;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.22092</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[President Medvedev proclaimed in his recent Der Spiegel interview that there is little difference between the rights record of Russia and that of its European counterparts: 'Our values are the same as yours. I don't see any major differences in...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/time-to-stop-making-excuses/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>DT Tops Estimates on Cost-Cutting &#8211; Analyst Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/dt-tops-estimates-on-cost-cutting-analyst-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/dt-tops-estimates-on-cost-cutting-analyst-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:14:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zacks Market Commentaries</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Analyst]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AT&T]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[broadband]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cent;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[computing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deutsche Telekom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fixed-network]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France Telecom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mobile communications operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mobile communications revenue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mobile communications subscriber base]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mobile operator]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Orange UK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OTE;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retail broadband lines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[T-Mobile UK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[telecom giant;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Telecommunications revenue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[telephony subscriber base]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Netherlands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Verizon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wireless Carrier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wireless handsets offerings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/27072/DT+Tops+Estimates+on+Cost-Cutting+-+Analyst+Blog</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<br />
German telecom giant <strong>Deutsche Telekom </strong>(<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/dt">DT</a>) announced results for third-quarter 2009 with reported earnings per ADS of 31 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 25 cents. Net income of &#8364;959 million (US$1.4 billion) reflects a 7.2% increase from &#8364;895 million (US$1.3 billion) reported a year ago.<br />
 <br />
This year-over-year growth was fueled by the company&#8217;s ongoing cost-cutting initiatives under the "Save for Service" program. Total savings from this program reached approximately &#8364;5.4 billion (US$7.7 billion) at the end of the quarter, exceeding the annual savings target of up to &#8364;4.7 billion (US$6.7 billion) originally expected to be achieved in 2010.<br />
 <br />
<em><strong>Group Revenue &#38; EBITDA</strong></em><br />
 <br />
Reported revenues of &#8364;16.3 billion (US$23.2 billion) reflects 5.2% year-over-year growth, primarily due to the consolidation of Greek operator OTE group, in which Deutsche Telekom holds a 30% stake. Domestic revenues grew 0.6% year over year to &#8364;7.2 billion (US$10.3 billion), while international revenues increased 9.2% year over year to &#8364;9.1 billion (US$12.9 billion). Approximately 56% of the revenue was generated outside Germany in the quarter. <br />
<br />
Adjusted EBITDA (excluding special items) increased 5.5% year over year to &#8364;5.5 billion (US$7.9 billion), driven by improved operational efficiency and reduced cost. OTE contributed &#8364;1.5 billion (US$2.1 billion) and &#8364;0.6 billion (US$858 million) to the group&#8217;s revenue and adjusted EBITDA, respectively.<br />
<br />
The following is a snapshot of operating results by segments:<br />
 <br />
<em><strong>Germany<br />
 </strong></em><br />
Revenue from this segment fell 2% year over year to &#8364;6.5 billion (US$9.2 billion) as a result of continued erosion in fixed-network lines and unfavorable regulatory measures. German fixed-network and mobile communications operations were combined following the recently completed operational restructuring. Fixed-network revenue declined 3.5% year over year to &#8364;4.7 billion (US$6.7 billion), while mobile communications revenue grew 1.4% to &#8364;2.1 billion (US$3 billion).  <br />
<br />
German fixed telephony subscriber base continue to contract as reflected by 8% year over year decline in fixed-network lines that registered 26.65 million lines at the end of the quarter. Broadband business remains on the growth track as total retail broadband lines grew 10.3% year over year to 11.3 million, with 72,000 customers added in the quarter. German mobile communications subscriber base increased 1.4% year over year to 39.3 million.<br />
<em><strong> <br />
United States (T-Mobile USA)</strong></em><br />
 <br />
Revenue at Mobile Communication USA (T-Mobile USA), the fourth-largest US wireless carrier, grew 3% year over year to &#8364;3.8 billion (US$5.4 billion). However, in dollar terms, total revenue for the quarter represents a 2.3% annualized decline. Net income (measured in dollars) also decreased 5.7% year over year to US$417 million. <br />
 <br />
Blended ARPU for T-Mobile USA was US$47, down from US$52 and US$48 reported in the prior-year quarter and previous quarter, respectively, as growth in data services was offset by lower roaming and customer migration to unlimited plans. Blended churn (customers switching to other products) increased sequentially and year over year to 3.4% as a result of an increase in contract churn due to intense competition.<br />
<br />
Higher contract churn affected customer retention at T-Mobile USA in the third quarter, as evidenced by a net loss of 77,000 customers. This is compared to a net gain of 325,000 and 670,000 customers in the previous and year-ago quarters, respectively.<br />
 <br />
T-Mobile USA remains challenged by the cutting-edge wireless handsets offerings from its larger peers such as <strong>AT&#38;T</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/t">T</a>) and<strong> Verizon</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/vz">VZ</a>), resulting in increased customer defection. The entity served 33.4 million mobile subscribers at the end of the quarter.<br />
 <br />
<em><strong>Europe</strong></em><br />
 <br />
Revenue for the Europe operating segment (combines operations in the UK, Poland, the Netherlands, Austria and the Czech Republic) decreased 13.2% year over year to &#8364;2.6 billion (US$3.6 billion). The Europe segment served 44.4 million cellular customers at the end of the quarter.<br />
 <br />
Revenue from UK (T-Mobile UK), the largest contributor to the segment&#8217;s revenue, decreased 14.6% year over year to &#8364;853 million (US$1.2 billion) due to an adverse exchange rate impact and mobile termination rate (inter-operator fees) cuts. Deutsche Telekom has reportedly finalized agreement with <strong>France Telecom</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/fte">FTE</a>) for the merger of T-Mobile UK with Orange UK under a 50-50 joint venture, which will create the largest mobile operator in the UK with 37% market share.<br />
 <br />
<em><strong>Southern and Eastern Europe</strong></em><br />
 <br />
The segment reported revenues of &#8364;2.6 billion (US$3.7 billion) for the quarter, reflecting an increase from &#8364;1.26 billion (US$1.8 billion) reported a year ago. This growth was fuelled by the inclusion of the OTE group. At the end of the quarter, the segment served 33.7 million mobile customers and 3.7 million broadband connections.<br />
 <br />
<em><strong>Systems Solutions (T-Systems)</strong></em><br />
 <br />
The dismal global economic environment continues to negatively affect new order bookings at T-Systems. As a result, revenues for the segment declined 7.3% year over year to &#8364;2.1 billion (US$3 billion). Telecommunications revenue decreased 12.4% year over year to &#8364;803 million (US$1.1 billion), while computing and desktop services revenue declined 0.9% to &#8364;952 million (US$1.4 billion).<br />
 <br />
<em><strong>Outlook</strong></em><br />
 <br />
Deutsche Telekom has reaffirmed its guidance for 2009, with adjusted EBITDA expected to fall by 2-4% from &#8364;19.5 billion (US$27.9 billion) achieved in 2008. Projected free cash flow for 2009 remains at &#8364;7 billion (U$10 billion), out of which OTE&#8217;s contribution is expected to be &#8364;0.6 billion (U$0.9 billion).<br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=DT">Read the full analyst report on "DT"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=FTE">Read the full analyst report on "FTE"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=T">Read the full analyst report on "T"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=VZ">Read the full analyst report on "VZ"</a><br /><a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks Investment Research</a><br />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/dt-tops-estimates-on-cost-cutting-analyst-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Russia: The Playground Bully?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/russia-the-playground-bully/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/russia-the-playground-bully/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:29:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign Minister]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Islamic Republic of Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Van Der Galien]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North Atlantic Treaty Organization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Radoslaw Sikorski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sergei Lavrov]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warsaw]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.22060</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is apparently 'astonished' to hear that Poland's Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, asked NATO and the US to deploy troops in Europe to provide 'some strategic reassurance', on a recent visit to Washington.&#160; Since the scrapping...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/russia-the-playground-bully/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Prieur’s readings (October 29, 2009)</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/prieur%e2%80%99s-readings-october-29-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/prieur%e2%80%99s-readings-october-29-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 10:48:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Prieur du Plessis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anatole Kaletsky;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andy Xie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Caijing.com.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doug Kass]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dow Jones Transportation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investment Banking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investment postcards]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeremy Siegel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Maynard Keynes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[new york stock exchange]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Noam Scheiber]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pravda;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Randall Forsyth;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Skidelsky]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The New Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Wall Street Journal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Bond;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street Journal]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.investmentpostcards.com/?p=12779</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy. Please post other interesting links in the comments section. ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/prieur%e2%80%99s-readings-october-29-2009/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>With Friends Like These&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/with-friends-like-these/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/with-friends-like-these/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:29:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hugo Chávez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Maria Aznar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Southeast Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[spouse syndrome]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Venezuela]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.21914</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I just published a quick rant on Huffington Post after watching Joe Scarborough complain and moan about how the U.S. is going it alone on Afghanistan during his morning MSNBC show.&#160; It's no wonder so many countries are getting into...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/with-friends-like-these/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Top Performer for Fri: Bucyrus (BUCY) &#8211; Zacks #1 Rank Top Performers</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/top-performer-for-fri-bucyrus-bucy-zacks-1-rank-top-performers/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/top-performer-for-fri-bucyrus-bucy-zacks-1-rank-top-performers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Oct 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Giaquinto</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bucy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Caterpillar Inc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cent;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[customers mining copper]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electric mining shovel sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[equipment manufacturer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ingersoll-Rand plc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joy Global Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[large-scale excavation equipment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[machinery-construction/mining industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil sands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[surface mining]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[underground mining]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/commentary/12515/Top+Performer+for+Fri%3A+Bucyrus+%28BUCY%29+-+Zacks+%231+Rank+Top+Performers</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<b>Bucyrus International, Inc.</b> (<a href=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/BUCY>BUCY</a>) shares are jumping to end the week after announcing a strong third-quarter report that included a sharp earnings surprise. <p> 

<table align="right"><tr><td>< ?DART(15);?></td></tr></table> 

The mining equipment manufacturer made the Zacks #1 Rank Top Performers List today with a gain of more than 13%. Volume is also flexing with nearly 8 million shares changing hands, compared to the daily average of 1.9 million. </p><p> 

BUCY is one of the world's leading manufacturers of large-scale excavation equipment used in surface mining. Its machines are used throughout the world by customers mining copper, coal, oil sands, iron ore and other minerals. </p><p> 

The company is part of the machinery-construction/mining industry. Other names from this space on today's <a href=http://www.zacks.com/portfolios/rank/1rank.php>Zacks #1 Rank List</a> include heavy hitters like <b>Caterpillar, Inc.</b> (<a href=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/CAT>CAT</a>), <b>Ingersoll-Rand plc</b> (<a href=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/IR>IR</a>) and <b>Joy Global, Inc.</b> (<a href=http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/JOYG>JOYG</a>). </p><p>  

<b>Third Quarter</b></p><p> 

Bucyrus reported third-quarter earnings per share of $1.21 late yesterday, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 86 cents by nearly 41%. This marked its third straight quarter of better-than-expected profit, having amassed an average surprise of more than 25% in the period. </p><p> 

The result also easily improved on the year-ago result of 85 cents. </p><p> 

Meanwhile, sales improved to $675.8 million from $646 million. </p><p> 

In regards to original equipment sales, BUCY reported a decrease in surface mining due to a decline in electric mining shovel sales, but an increase in underground mining as all product lines contributed. </p><p> 

For aftermarket parts and service sales, surface mining advanced due to the Chilean market with an assist from the Canadian and Chinese markets, while underground mining also advanced thanks to increased longwall replacement projects here in the U.S. along with better sales in the Czech Republic market. </p><p> 

In a conference call, the company raised its revenue outlook for 2009 to between $2.6 billion and $2.63 billion, versus the prior estimate of $2.5 billion. </p><p>  
<b>Earnings Estimates</b></p><p>  

Now that Bucyrus has announced a strong quarterly report, the 14 analysts that cover each this year and next are likely to revise their estimates higher. Luckily, quarterly expectations had been marching upward even before this report. </p><p> 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this year is at $3.52 per share, up nearly 3% from $3.42 over the past 2 months and up 1.1% from $3.48 in the past 30 days. </p><p> 

For next year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is at $2.29 per share. That marks an advance of 9.6% in 2 months and 5% in 30 days. </p><p> <a href="http://www.zacks.com" alt="Investment Research">Zacks Investment Research</a><br /></p>]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/top-performer-for-fri-bucyrus-bucy-zacks-1-rank-top-performers/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Overland Storage, Inc. (OVRL) Forms Manufacturing Partnership with Foxconn Group</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/overland-storage-inc-ovrl-forms-manufacturing-partnership-with-foxconn-group/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/overland-storage-inc-ovrl-forms-manufacturing-partnership-with-foxconn-group/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:33:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>QualityStocks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Small & Micro Cap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Businessweek]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ceo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[e-enabled]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electronics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Kelly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foxconn Technology Group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jackson Shih]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MIT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Overland Storage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Storage Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[supply chain solution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vp]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://Blog.QualityStocks.net/?p=18682</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Overland Storage, Inc. disclosed details of a strategic manufacturing agreement with Foxconn Technology Group this morning, Tuesday, Oct 20. This agreement will initially result in a collaborative effort between the companies to manufacture a line of Overland’s end-to-end data protection (EDP) solutions. This is an important move forward for Overland, leading to an increased manufacturing [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/overland-storage-inc-ovrl-forms-manufacturing-partnership-with-foxconn-group/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How Russia Learned to Love the (Iranian) Bomb</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/how-russia-learned-to-love-the-iranian-bomb/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/how-russia-learned-to-love-the-iranian-bomb/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2009 20:28:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boris Morozov]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chechnya]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[civilian nuclear energy facility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dmitry Medvedev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy field]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hillary clinton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran's court]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Islamic Republic of Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[president]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Putin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[S300]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Secretary of State]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tehran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vice President]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street Journal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.21736</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Out of the many, many interesting quotes we got from Vice President Joe Biden during his famously candid Wall Street Journal interview (which sounded like it was done in a cocktail lounge), was the following appraisal of the United States...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/how-russia-learned-to-love-the-iranian-bomb/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Two Sagging Economies… Two Laid-Back Banks</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/two-sagging-economies%e2%80%a6-two-laid-back-banks/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/two-sagging-economies%e2%80%a6-two-laid-back-banks/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Oct 2009 16:59:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Investment U</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Contrarian Perspectives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Britain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chief  Secretary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Central Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gbp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gordon Gekko]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greece]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[InvestmentU]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jean Claude Trichet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Liam Byrne]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Denholm;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National Institute of Economic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National Institute of Economic and Social Research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Portugal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[president]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Senior Editor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social Research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Bank of England]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wall street]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/October/the-british-and-eurozone-economies.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Two Sagging Economies&#8230; Two Laid-Back Banks
by Martin Denholm, Senior Editor
Anemic. Stagnant. Plodding.
Pick your favorite&#8230; it doesn&#8217;t matter. They all describe the  state of the British and Eurozone economies.
Two weeks before the official third quarter U.K. GDP figure  is released, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)  delivered a somber verdict. [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/two-sagging-economies%e2%80%a6-two-laid-back-banks/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>TEF Preps 4G LTE Trial &#8211; Analyst Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/tef-preps-4g-lte-trial-analyst-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/tef-preps-4g-lte-trial-analyst-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2009 23:06:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zacks Market Commentaries</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[4G LTE technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alcatel Lucent]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[announced network infrastructure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Argentina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[base technology standard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[broadband]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China Unicom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ericsson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Huawei;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LTE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Madrid]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NEC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nokia-Siemens Networks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[technology providers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[technology upgrades;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TELEFONICA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ultra high-bandwidth multimedia data applications]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ZTE]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/25469/TEF+Preps+4G+LTE+Trial+-+Analyst+Blog</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<br />
Spanish Telecom giant <strong>Telefonica</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/TEF">TEF</a>) has unveiled the details of a large-scale field trial project related to the company&#8217;s 4G network services, which is based on the Long Term Evaluation (&#8220;LTE") mobile broadband technology.
<p>The company will test run its 4G LTE network in six countries across Europe and Latin America. The outcome of the trials will help Telefonica to chalk out its next phase of network deployment strategy.</p>
<p>Telefonica will conduct 4G LTE trials during the next six months in multiple European countries such as Czech Republic, Germany, Spain and the UK, while the Latin American trials will be staged in Brazil and Argentina. The company has already conducted its first LTE trial in Madrid in April 2009, which has demonstrated encouraging throughput levels.</p>
<p>Telefonica has also announced network infrastructure and equipment vendors to facilitate the field testing. It has reportedly selected six technology providers: <strong>Alcatel-Lucent</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/ALU">ALU</a>), <strong>Ericsson</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/ERIC">ERIC</a>), Huawei, NEC, Nokia Siemens Networks and ZTE.</p>
<p>Leading carriers across the world have adopted LTE as the base technology standard for 4G network upgrade initiatives due to its fast data transfer capability. LTE offers rapid downlink and uplink speeds that averages 100 megabits per second (Mbps) and 50 Mbps, respectively, which is competitive or faster than other leading 4G standards, including WiMax.</p>
<p>Telefonica has recently expanded its strategic alliance with the second-largest Chinese carrier <strong>China Unicom</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/CHU">CHU</a>). This extended collaboration is expected to offer significant technological and operational synergies. Additionally, the companies are likely to collaborate in future technology upgrades, such as the development of 4G LTE technology.</p>
<p>By moving to the 4G LTE network, Telefonica will offer its customers super-fast mobile broadband experience, representing an encouraging opportunity to improve customer retention. The company hopes to offer peak network speed of up to 340 Mbps in ideal conditions. Moreover, the ultra high-bandwidth multimedia data applications fostered by the 4G LTE network will boost revenue per user through increased minutes of use.</p><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=TEF">Read the full analyst report on "TEF"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=ALU">Read the full analyst report on "ALU"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=ERIC">Read the full analyst report on "ERIC"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=CHU">Read the full analyst report on "CHU"</a><br /><a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks Investment Research</a><br />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/tef-preps-4g-lte-trial-analyst-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A Jobs Jamboree Friday!</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/a-jobs-jamboree-friday-3/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/a-jobs-jamboree-friday-3/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:31:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Stevenson;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anton Valukas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[attorney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BOA CEO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BRL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chairman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chrysler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chuck Butler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[contrarian profits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DKK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EUR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FXU Currency Tours]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gbp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Motors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HKD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Honda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HUF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[INR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ireland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Istanbul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jenner & Block]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jpy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ken Lewis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Koruna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lehman Brothers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Merrill Lynch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ministry of Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nissan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peso]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PLN;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RUB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SEK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Wall Street Journal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toyota]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. government;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street Journal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ZAR]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=20844</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[p The dollar remains well bid#8230;G-7 to hand currencies off to G-20? Car Sales collapse#8230;Auditing the Lehman cash movements#8230;And Now#8230; Today#8217;s Pfennig!/p
pGood day#8230; And a Happy Friday to one and all! Yesterday, I welcomed you to October. I had been prepared to tell you about a famous radio station here in St. Louis, that has long called October#8230; Rocktober#8230; But forgot, as usual! But anyway#8230; It#8217;s the first Fantastico Friday of Rocktober!/p
pToday is a Jobs Jamboree Friday too! And#8230; I#8217;m not getting a good feeling about today#8217;s labor report at the Jobs Jamboree. The forecast is for jobs losses to fall from -216,000 to -175,000, but the unemployment rate to tick up to 9.8% from 9.7%#8230; I got the feeling, baby,#8230;/p]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/a-jobs-jamboree-friday-3/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Motorola Wins Major Contract &#8211; Analyst Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/motorola-wins-major-contract-analyst-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/motorola-wins-major-contract-analyst-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Sep 2009 15:15:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zacks Market Commentaries</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[3.0 technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[3.0-certified]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[3.0-certified technologies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Analyst]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arris Group Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bandwidth enhancing technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[broadband]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cable modem]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cable Tv]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cisco System Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[digital video]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[feature-rich services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[leader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Liberty Global Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Motorola Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[passive optical networks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[satellite carriers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Slovakia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Switzerland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Netherlands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[voice and data solution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/25105/Motorola+Wins+Major+Contract+-+Analyst+Blog</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<br />
Recently, <strong>Motorola Inc</strong> (<strong><a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/MOT">MOT</a></strong>) was awarded a contract to supply EuroDOCSIS 3.0 digital video modems to UPC Broadband for its pan-European network. UPC Broadband is the European division of <strong>Liberty Global Inc</strong> (<strong><a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/LBTYA">LBTYA</a></strong>), the largest cable TV operator in Europe. <br />
<br />
Using Motorola&#8217;s SBV6120E EuroDOCSIS 3.0 voice and data solution, UPC will deliver high-speed (120 Mbps) data and IP voice and services to its customers in The Netherlands, Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Switzerland. The SBV6120E is part of Motorola's complete portfolio of bandwidth-expanding EuroDOCSIS 3.0-certified technologies. <br />
<br />
EuroDOCSIS 3.0 standard is based on 8 MHz channels whereas U.S. DOCSIS 3.0 standard is based on 6 MHz channels. Motorola&#8217;s DOCSIS 3.0 solutions enable cable operators to cost-effectively introduce new value-added services, increase bandwidth for feature-rich services, generate higher return on investment, and increase revenues. <br />
<br />
Although the financial terms of this contract haves not been disclosed, we believe the UPC contract will act as a major catalyst for the company&#8217;s cable modem termination system (CMTS) business since Motorola is quickly losing its ground to both its larger peer <strong>Cisco System Inc</strong> (<strong><a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/CSCO">CSCO</a></strong>) and the emerging dark-horse <strong>Arris Group Inc</strong> (<strong><a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/ARRS">ARRS</a></strong>). <br />
<br />
According to a recent report of Infonetics Research, Arris has become the new world leader in the CMTS market commanding approximately 47% of the global CMTS market having taken over leadership from Cisco System (39%) and Motorola (10%). <br />
<br />
According to our assessment, the DOCSIS 3.0 market will continue to remain healthy in the near future as Intense competition among cable operators, satellite carriers and telecom service providers for broadband market share has forced the cable MSOs to opt for cost effective bandwidth enhancing technology for high-speed network. <br />
<br />
Major cable MSOs in the U.S. are aggressively deploying the DCOSIS 3.0 technology. This in turn may result in significant demand for Motorola&#8217;s fiber-based network architectures such as, passive optical networks and DOCSIS 3.0 solutions.<br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=MOT">Read the full analyst report on "MOT"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=LBTYA">Read the full analyst report on "LBTYA"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=CSCO">Read the full analyst report on "CSCO"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=ARRS">Read the full analyst report on "ARRS"</a><br /><a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks Investment Research</a><br />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/motorola-wins-major-contract-analyst-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>RA&#8217;s Daily Russian News Blast &#8211; September 18, 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/ras-daily-russian-news-blast-september-18-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/ras-daily-russian-news-blast-september-18-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Sep 2009 08:37:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Afghanistan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anders Fogh Rasmussen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrei Nesterenko;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrius Kubilius]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Charles Dharapak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David J Kramer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dmitry Rogozin;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[envoy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign Ministry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gazprom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Honor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Islamic Republic of Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jared C. Monti]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lithuania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Massachusetts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Medvedev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow Art Nouveau building]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North Atlantic Treaty Organization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peaceful Trading - Vlad Moraru]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[president]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prime Minister]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Putin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Raynham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[return wonders media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reuters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Gibbs;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Secretary General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sergei Lavrov]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sgt. 1st Class]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[spokesman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[St. Petersburg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the Guardian]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Moscow Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the Telegraph]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the Washington Post]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[White House]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.21450</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ TODAY: US missile defense in Eastern Europe plans officially scrapped in favor of 'more efficient' new program.&#160; A matter of concession or conviction on Obama's part; mixed reaction from former would-be host countries fearful of Russian dominance; is the...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/ras-daily-russian-news-blast-september-18-2009/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>ProLogis Moving Along Well &#8211; Analyst Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/prologis-moving-along-well-analyst-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/prologis-moving-along-well-analyst-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Sep 2009 17:30:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zacks Market Commentaries</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[highway network]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[land bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ostrava International Airport]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prologis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Slovakia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/24774/ProLogis+Moving+Along+Well+-+Analyst+Blog</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<strong><br />
ProLogis</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/PLD">PLD</a>), a leading global provider of distribution facilities, recently agreed to lease about 154,000 square feet of newly developed space in the Czech Republic to Geis Logistics.
<p align="left">The leased facility at ProLogis Park Ostrava is strategically located close to the Ostrava city center &#8211; a premier administrative and manufacturing hub in the country. The site provides immediate access to major centers of commerce in the region through a highway network and Ostrava International Airport.</p>
<p align="left">Geis Logistics will utilize the facility as a central warehouse for its operations in the Czech Republic and Slovakia and as a gateway to other Eastern European markets. Besides its prime location, the facility would also provide access to a talented pool of workforce that in turn could increase the company&#8217;s efficiency.</p>
<p align="left">ProLogis owns and manages interests in over 2,500 distribution facilities, service offices and properties spanning 475 million square feet of space (including properties under development). As of June 30, it had 200.5 million square feet of directly owned industrial assets, 81.5% of which was located in North America, 14.2% in Europe and 4.3% in Asia.</p>
<p align="left">In the Czech Republic, the company&#8217;s portfolio includes six distribution parks totaling 6.5 million square feet. ProLogis is currently monetizing its land bank to capitalize on its construction expertise for grade A sustainable facilities that uniquely satisfy customer requirements and attracts new businesses despite a softening economy.</p><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=PLD">Read the full analyst report on "PLD"</a><br /><a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks Investment Research</a><br />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/prologis-moving-along-well-analyst-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>VOD Debuts UK&#8217;s SME Market &#8211; Analyst Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/vod-debuts-uks-sme-market-analyst-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/vod-debuts-uks-sme-market-analyst-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Sep 2009 22:51:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zacks Market Commentaries</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Analyst]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[broadband]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[broadband services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BT Group;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[corporate communications]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[enterprise fixed-line services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[enterprise wireless market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fixed-line network]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fixed-line services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gbp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lucrative communications]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mobile and fixed services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mobile and landline services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[player in the UK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vodafone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vodafone UK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wireless market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/24693/VOD+Debuts+UK%27s+SME+Market+-+Analyst+Blog</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<strong><br />
Vodafone</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/vod">VOD</a>) UK has reportedly launched a converged fixed-mobile service (called "Vodafone One Net") yesterday for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) across the UK, helping them to more effectively manage their corporate communications. This follows the company&#8217;s successful launch of Vodafone One in June 2009 that offers bundled voice, data and fixed-line services for large businesses.<br />
<br />
Vodafone One Net, which was previously launched in Italy and Czech Republic, marks Vodafone UK&#8217;s entry in the lucrative communications market for SMEs in the UK, representing an approximate £8 billion market opportunity.<br />
<br />
The new combined service offers a single number for mobile and landline services, one voicemail number for all messages and one contract through a single service provider. Users can seamlessly switch between landline phones and their mobiles while in a call and will have the flexibility of paying a flat call rate per subscription for all calls. Vodafone One Net thus provides businesses the privilege to concentrate more on their customers rather than spending time on managing their communications.<br />
<br />
For businesses with multiple office locations, the company will offer effective call management through a virtual switchboard which will route the calls to different locations via the most effective channels. Vodafone UK has plans to eventually incorporate <strong>Microsoft's</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/msft">MSFT</a>) Office Communications Services (such as email and messaging) in its latest offering. Vodafone One Net will allow small and medium businesses greater cost control with up to 20% savings on the total communication bill.<br />
<br />
Vodafone UK has also extended its collaboration with<strong> BT Group</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/bt">BT</a>) which will enable it to provide fixed-line services to the SME market in the UK as a part of the Vodafone One Net offering. Under the five year managed service agreement, BT will offer IP-enabled fixed-line voice and broadband services to Vodafone UK. This will enable Vodafone to expand its service portfolio in UK without any huge investment to build its own fixed-line network.<br />
<br />
Vodafone has a strong presence in the enterprise wireless market in the UK. The company is the second-largest player in the UK wireless market with roughly 24.7% share. However, its presence in the enterprise fixed-line services market has been lackluster to date.<br />
<br />
Vodafone One Net enables the company to become a full-service provider for businesses in the UK, offering integrated mobile and fixed services. This will take Vodafone UK a step ahead in its bid to lead the domestic unified communications market for SMEs.<br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=VOD">Read the full analyst report on "VOD"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=MSFT">Read the full analyst report on "MSFT"</a><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=BT">Read the full analyst report on "BT"</a><br /><a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks Investment Research</a><br />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/vod-debuts-uks-sme-market-analyst-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>PennyOmega.com Stock Report! 9/03/09, AKAM, VICL, DCTH, UPI, TRMB, CYD</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/pennyomega-com-stock-report-90309-akam-vicl-dcth-upi-trmb-cyd/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/pennyomega-com-stock-report-90309-akam-vicl-dcth-upi-trmb-cyd/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Sep 2009 11:39:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>PennyOmega.com</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Akamai Technologies Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[alternative fuel technologies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boo Guan Saw]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cancers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China Yuchai International Limited]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chinese Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Delcath Systems Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[diesel engine products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fuel technologies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Company Limited]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Influenza]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[innovative proprietary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[innovative proprietary products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[leader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[main  operating subsidiary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[medical technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mississippi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overactive bladder]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Sagan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PennyOmega.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Percutaneous Hepatic Perfusion (PHP(TM)) System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Percutaneous Hepatic Perfusion (PHP) System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PHP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[president]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[President and CEO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Queensbury]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Special General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock featured on our site;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trimble]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trimble VRS Now]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trimble(R) VRS Now(TM) service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[urge incontinence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Urgent PC System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uroplasty Inc;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vaccines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vical Incorporated]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pennyomega.com/?p=881</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;&#60;</p>
]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/pennyomega-com-stock-report-90309-akam-vicl-dcth-upi-trmb-cyd/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>DrStockPick.com Stock Report! 9/03/09, AKAM, VICL, DCTH, UPI, TRMB, CYD</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/drstockpick-com-stock-report-90309-akam-vicl-dcth-upi-trmb-cyd/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/drstockpick-com-stock-report-90309-akam-vicl-dcth-upi-trmb-cyd/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Sep 2009 11:30:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dr. Stock Pick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Akamai Technologies Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[alternative fuel technologies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boo Guan Saw]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cancers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China Yuchai International Limited]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chinese Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Delcath Systems Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[diesel engine products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dr Stock Pick]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fuel technologies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Guangxi Yuchai Machinery Company Limited]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Influenza]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[innovative proprietary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[innovative proprietary products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[leader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[main  operating subsidiary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[medical technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mississippi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[overactive bladder]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Sagan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Percutaneous Hepatic Perfusion (PHP(TM)) System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Percutaneous Hepatic Perfusion (PHP) System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PHP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[president]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[President and CEO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Queensbury]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Special General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trimble]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trimble VRS Now]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trimble(R) VRS Now(TM) service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[urge incontinence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Urgent PC System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uroplasty Inc;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vaccines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vical Incorporated]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://drstockpick.com/?p=3185</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
DrStockPick.com Stock  Report!

Thursday September 3, 2009




**************************************************************

Akamai Technologies,  Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM), the leader in powering video, dynamic transactions  and enterprise applications online, announced today that it will participate in  Citi&#8217;s 16th Annual Global Technology Conference in New York, New York. President  and CEO, Paul Sagan, will present an update on Akamai&#8217;s [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/drstockpick-com-stock-report-90309-akam-vicl-dcth-upi-trmb-cyd/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>RA&#8217;s Daily Russian News Blast &#8211; August 31, 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/ras-daily-russian-news-blast-august-31-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/ras-daily-russian-news-blast-august-31-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2009 07:41:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[70th anniversary of its start]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[al-Qaeda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anders Fogh Rasmussen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chechnya]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chief of staff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Digital Tv]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gazprom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Grozny]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[head]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[heritage site]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hitler;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human rights activist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Itar-Tass]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lieutenant-colonel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lyudmila Alexeyeva]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Medvedev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Musa Sadulayev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Natalya Estemirova]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North Atlantic Treaty Organization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[president]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Presidential chief]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Putin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reuters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russian Army]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Secretary General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sergei Naryshkin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[St. Petersburg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stalin;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the anniversary of the outbreak of WW2]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the New York Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Nations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yunus-Bek Yevkurov]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.20589</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ TODAY: NATO head upbeat on relations with Russia; Medvedev looks to imams for help with Caucasus Islamic insurgents; suggests a TV channel.&#160; Russia on the defensive regarding WW2; 70th anniversary of its start to prove a diplomatic minefield?&#160; St...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/ras-daily-russian-news-blast-august-31-2009/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Emerging Europe re-emerging</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/emerging-europe-re-emerging/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/emerging-europe-re-emerging/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Aug 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Frank Holmes</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Estonia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Frank Holmes;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Frank Talk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latvia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lithuania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sweden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.usfunds.com://d2cc43e067888e93270decffb7fd9c41</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Emerging Europe investing is staging a comeback.
In the past couple of months, stock markets in the region have posted big rallies. The index for Lithuania has shot up 58 percent since June 30, while the indexes for its Baltic neighbors Estonia and Latvia have climbed 33 percent and 27 percent, respectively.
In Central Europe, the key stock indexes for the Czech Republic and Hungary are both up 26 percent in the third quarter through Friday, and Polandrsquo;s index has gained 20 percent.
All of these stock markets suffered mightily in the global credit crisis as their overheated economies stalled, their currencies dropped, and the cost of loans denominated in dollars and euros skyrocketed.
Now it appears that intervention by the International Monetary Fund, combined with a growing belief that the worst of the financial woes and global recession are behind us, may have mitigated the regionrsquo;s risk profile and lured investors back.
Not that all of the news coming out of the region is goodmdash;the IMF estimates that Latviarsquo;s economy will shrink 18 percent in 2009 and another 4 percent in 2010. The IMF has agreed to provide $2.4 billion in loans to Latvia, one of the nations hit hardest by the global financial crisis and subsequent recession. Lithuania is also receiving external funding after seeing its GDP contract 12.3 percent during the second quarter.
Russia, the largest market in Emerging Europe, is up more than 14 percent since June 30, while No. 2 Turkey has risen nearly 29 percent.
The regional upswing has also benefited stock indexes in Austria (+22 percent) and Sweden (+16 percent), which both have strong banking ties to Emerging Europe.
09-587]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/emerging-europe-re-emerging/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Emerging Europe re-emergingEmerging Europe re-emerging</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/emerging-europe-re-emergingemerging-europe-re-emerging/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/emerging-europe-re-emergingemerging-europe-re-emerging/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Aug 2009 05:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Frank Holmes</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing Lessons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Estonia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Frank Holmes;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Frank Talk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latvia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lithuania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sweden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.usfunds.com://1f16569a017aedff459eaa2c91aff7b7</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Emerging Europe investing is staging a comeback.
In the past couple of months, stock markets in the region have posted big rallies. The index for Lithuania has shot up 58 percent since June 30, while the indexes for its Baltic neighbors Estonia and Latvia have climbed 33 percent and 27 percent, respectively.
In Central Europe, the key stock indexes for the Czech Republic and Hungary are both up 26 percent in the third quarter through Friday, and Polandrsquo;s index has gained 20 percent.
All of these stock markets suffered mightily in the global credit crisis as their overheated economies stalled, their currencies dropped, and the cost of loans denominated in dollars and euros skyrocketed.
Now it appears that intervention by the International Monetary Fund, combined with a growing belief that the worst of the financial woes and global recession are behind us, may have mitigated the regionrsquo;s risk profile and lured investors back.
Not that all of the news coming out of the region is goodmdash;the IMF estimates that Latviarsquo;s economy will shrink 18 percent in 2009 and another 4 percent in 2010. The IMF has agreed to provide $2.4 billion in loans to Latvia, one of the nations hit hardest by the global financial crisis and subsequent recession. Lithuania is also receiving external funding after seeing its GDP contract 12.3 percent during the second quarter.
Russia, the largest market in Emerging Europe, is up more than 14 percent since June 30, while No. 2 Turkey has risen nearly 29 percent.
The regional upswing has also benefited stock indexes in Austria (+22 percent) and Sweden (+16 percent), which both have strong banking ties to Emerging Europe.
09-587]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-lessons/emerging-europe-re-emergingemerging-europe-re-emerging/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>General Dynamics Bags Army Order &#8211; Analyst Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/general-dynamics-bags-army-order-analyst-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/general-dynamics-bags-army-order-analyst-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2009 17:15:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zacks Market Commentaries</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Axle Tech]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Burlington]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Dynamics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jet Aviation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Maine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Maine facility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[program management;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Saco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[technology center]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vermont]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/24135/General+Dynamics+Bags+Army+Order+-+Analyst+Blog</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<strong><br />
General Dynamics</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/GD">GD</a>) recently said that its unit, General Dynamics Armament and Technical Products, has received a $100 million contract from the US Army TACOM-Rock Island Ill division. The contract for supplying M2 flex machine guns is of indefinite delivery-indefinite quantity (IDIQ) nature and is scheduled to be completed by April 2012.
<p align="left">The M2 flex machine gun is a belt-fed, recoil-operated, air-cooled, right-hand/left-hand feed compatible, crew-served arm and is suited for both offensive and defensive operations. The guns will be manufactured at the company&#8217;s Saco, Maine facility and its technology center in Burlington, Vermont will administer program management.</p>
<p align="left">General Dynamics is likely to continue meeting investor expectations backed by strong revenue growth, margin expansion and cash flow generation. The recent acquisitions of Jet Aviation and Axle Tech, increased Navy spending and resumption of the Pander program for the Czech Republic will provide near-term upside potential despite apprehensions about defense spending under the Obama Administration, steady ramp down of BOWMAN program and the bleak Gulfstream scenario.</p>
<p align="left">Shares of General Dynamics closed at $58.73 on Wednesday, trading at 9.2X trailing 12-month EPS. We maintain our Outperform recommendation on the stock.</p><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=GD">Read the full analyst report on "GD"</a><br /><a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks Investment Research</a><br />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/general-dynamics-bags-army-order-analyst-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Risk On/Off?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-china/risk-onoff/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-china/risk-onoff/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2009 12:41:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Claus Vistesen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[aggregate retail sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Budapest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China International Capital Corp.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CNY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commission of European Communities;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Currency Strategist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deputy Governor Ferenc Karvalits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edward Hugh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EUR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greece]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hong Kong-based head]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Bank for Reconstruction and Development]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kossuth Radio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nemzeti Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oecd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Frank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royal Bank Of Scotland Group Plc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societe Generale SA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tax law;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wendy Liu]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">38293:325259:5018708</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Before I left for my summer break in Greece <a href="http://clausvistesen.squarespace.com/alphasources-blog/2009/7/23/escaping-original-sin-in-hungary.html">I asked</a>, among other things, whether Hungary was trying to escape original sin or more specifically (and implicitly) whether Hungary is using the current relatively favorable market environment to claw back control over monetary policy. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&#38;sid=a5y2YdiWtpTM">Recent comments</a> from central bank Deputy Governor Ferenc Karvalits suggest that this may very well be the case (quote below from Bloomberg);</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Investors see Hungary becoming &#8220;significantly&#8221; less risky, allowing for further reductions in <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HBBRATE%3AIND">interest rates</a>, central bank Deputy Governor <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Ferenc+Karvalits&#38;site=wnews&#38;client=wnews&#38;proxystylesheet=wnews&#38;output=xml_no_dtd&#38;ie=UTF-8&#38;oe=UTF-8&#38;filter=p&#38;getfields=wnnis&#38;sort=date:D:S:d1">Ferenc Karvalits</a> said. &#8220;Over the past few months, international risk appetite has improved significantly, the risk assessment of the region and Hungary has stabilized, and this allows for further easing of monetary conditions,&#8221; Karvalits said in an interview on Kossuth Radio today.</p>
<p>The Magyar Nemzeti Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 8 percent on Aug. 24 as it works to jolt the economy out of its worst <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HUGPTOTL%3AIND">recession </a>in 18 years. The bank has shaved 1.5 points off the key rate since July as confidence rises in the first European Union nation to get a bailout. Hungary received 20 billion euros ($28.5 billion) in an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund, the EU and the World Bank.</p>
<p>The country has a &#8220;good chance&#8221; to finance its budget deficit from the market and may not need the next installment of the IMF loan, Karvalits said. The forint weakened 0.3 percent against the euro and was trading at 268.82 at 7:48 a.m. in Budapest.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>You see, one of the principal reason why Hungary is in such a mess is that as inflation shot up in the months leading up to the crisis Hungary chose to loosen its peg against the Euro. At the time, the rationale seemed wise albeit very bold. In an environment where investors were willing to take risk (i.e. hunting for yield) their objectives could be aligned with that of public authorities in the sense that the former got their yield whereas the latter got the nominal appreciation needed to keep inflation in check.</p>
<p>It did not work quite like that.</p>
<p>As the crisis hastened its grip on global markets and as its locus steadily moved to Eastern Europe the Hungarian Forint plummeted and lay bare the country's vulnerabilities in the context of balance sheet (on the liability) side denominated in Swiss Francs. The result was that Hungary crashed into a recession unable to tweak monetary policy downwards because of a fear that this would scythe the Forint and thus essentially bankrupt scores of households and companies. On the other, the government also had (and has) difficulties raising funds on international capital markets.</p>
<p>Now however things appear to have changed at least for a moment and Hungary's central seem poised to take advantage of the relatively benign market conditions to lower interest rates to support its ailing economy. The underlying idea is simple. If you believe that risk aversion is to stay low, the Forint should not be sensitive towards the lowering of nominal interest rates since after all the carry remains plentiful. In this way, my view is that Hungary's central bank is trying to claw back the control over monetary policy by locking in a lower interest rate for the Forint. The key question which we should be asking ourselves however is of course whether Hungary could actually be forced to raise rates further down the road to defend the Forint. Clearly, bets are being made inside Hungary at the moment that this is not the case.</p>
<p>This is very interesting in a practical as well as a theoretical sense as I have discussed for example in <a href="http://clausvistesen.squarespace.com/alphasources-blog/2009/5/25/the-carry-trade-and-the-global-monetary-credit-transmission.html">this post about carry trade and global monetary policy</a>. More recently, <a href="http://globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com/2009/08/from-original-sin-to-eternal-triangle.html">Edward Hugh mused</a> on the same topic (more or less) invoking the idea of <a href="http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/triangle.html">the (eternal) triangle of monetary policy in an open economy context</a>.</p>
<p>In the case of the Central Europe "four", Poland and the Czech Republic opted for maintaining their grip on monetary policy, thus accepting the need for their currency to "freefloat" and move according to the ebbs and flows of market sentiment. As it turns out this decision has served them remarkably well, since the real appreciation in their currencies which accompanied the good times helped take some of the sting out of inflation, while their ability to rapidly reduce interest rates into the downturn has lead to currency depreciation, helping to sustain exports and avoid deflation related issues.<br /><br />The other two countries (Hungary and Romania), to a greater or lesser degree prioritised currency stability, and as a result had to sacrifice a lot of control over monetary policy, in the process exposing themselves to the risk of much more violent swings in market sentiment when it comes to capital flows. Having been pushed by the logic of their currency decision towards tolerating higher inflation, they have seen the competitiveness of their home industries gradually undermined, and as a consequence found themselves pushed into large current account deficits for just as long the market was prepared to support them, and into sharp domestic contractions once they were no longer disposed so to do.</p>
<p>Edward's account here is important since it alerts us to the fact that it was only at the very end that e.g. Hungary opted for float because it was believed that it would make the inflation problem go away. At that point however, the structural imbalances and essentially damage were already embedded in the system of course. Nevertheless, it is unequivocally the fact that Hungary, at the moment, is attempting to benefit from the relative benign market conditions which means that risk aversion remains relatively subdued.</p>
<p>&#160;</p>
<p><strong>Elsewhere in Market Land ...</strong></p>
<p>If our little trip to Hungary suggests that risk is on, if only a little bit and potentially in the case of Hungary news elsewhere suggest that the waters are more choppy. Of course, none of this is earth shattering by any means of the word, but since much, if not everything, seems to be revolving around China at the moment it seems worthwhile to dwell at <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&#38;sid=az.bPW2wKLEA">recent news</a> on how China are expected to "tweak" its hitherto lax lending policies to skim the worst of the mounting bubble (quote below from Bloomberg).</p>
<blockquote>
<p>China&#8217;s banking regulators are &#8220;tweaking&#8221; lending policies to remove &#8220;froth&#8221; from the system while <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CNGDPYOY%3AIND">growth</a> remains the top priority for policymakers, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. The goal is to manage risk exposure among banks and asset quality by checking lending from going into A-shares traded on the mainland and properties, <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Wendy+Liu&#38;site=wnews&#38;client=wnews&#38;proxystylesheet=wnews&#38;output=xml_no_dtd&#38;ie=UTF-8&#38;oe=UTF-8&#38;filter=p&#38;getfields=wnnis&#38;sort=date:D:S:d1">Wendy Liu</a>, Hong Kong-based head of China research at RBS ABN Amro, said in a report dated yesterday.</p>
<p>(...)</p>
<p>The banking regulator sent draft rule changes to banks on Aug. 19 that would require lenders to deduct all existing holdings of subordinated and hybrid debt sold by other lenders from supplementary capital, said the people, who have seen the document and declined to be named as the matter is private. This may cut lending by as much as 700 billion yuan ($102 billion), China International Capital Corp. said Aug. 24.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Of course, the main bias of the Chinese stimulus program and thus the authorities' objective remain one of promoting growth through the expansion of domestic investment and, one would assume, consumption. As RBS ABN Amro's Wendy Liu is quoted of saying; <em>"policymakers have a far greater tolerance for asset-price appreciation over the medium term than before"</em>. That sounds about right to me even if I am no sage, at all, on China.</p>
<p>What is interesting in the case of the recent news from China was also the <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&#38;sid=abL3QFsgy.1k">following piece by Bloomberg </a>whose headline (<span class="news_story_title"><em>Yen Strengthens as China Policy Concern Spurs Demand for Safety</em>) makes a direct link between policies in China and risk sentiment in the market and thus also the movement of the Yen and the USD (remembering of course the narrative that repatriation of profits may ultimately be the main driver of the Yen at the moment). </span></p>
<blockquote>
<p>The yen rose for a third day against the euro in the longest stretch of gains since July on concern Chinese production curbs would slow economic recovery, fanning demand for the relative safety of Japan&#8217;s currency. The currency gained versus major counterparts including the pound on speculation Japan&#8217;s exporters are repatriating earnings to take advantage of a new tax law. A government report today may show a faster contraction in the U.S. economy than previously estimated.</p>
<p>&#8220;We have talks from China cutting back expanding, trying to sort out the balance sheet and prevent too much reckless lending,&#8221; said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Peter+Frank&#38;site=wnews&#38;client=wnews&#38;proxystylesheet=wnews&#38;output=xml_no_dtd&#38;ie=UTF-8&#38;oe=UTF-8&#38;filter=p&#38;getfields=wnnis&#38;sort=date:D:S:d1">Peter Frank</a>, a London-based currency strategist at Societe Generale SA. &#8220;But domestic factors, like capital repatriation, are driving yen&#8217;s strength right now.&#8221;</p>
</blockquote>
<p><span class="news_story_title"> </span>Whether there is a history to be made here is debatable, but one thing is certain. China seems to have decidedly taken center stage in the global market discourse. Finally and essentially as a small footnote, yours truly took notice of the fact that despite the decidedly positive sentiment in the core of Europe at the moment on the back of the Q2 GDP print and upbeat confidence readings in Germany, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&#38;sid=a.RqZSIZDNyk">aggregate retail sales continued their steady decline</a>.</p>
<p>Whether all this signifies that risk is "on" or "off" I will allow the reader to decide for themselves. Personally, I am still bearish, but it is difficult to deny that the relative calm and positive environment that has prevailed since spring seems rather strong. I would expect sentiment to change once we return to "normal" in Q4 once the elections in Germany and Japan have been resolved and, more importantly, once OECD stimulus packages start to wane. Most importantly however, there is the situation in Southern and Eastern Europe still loom as the most likely harbringers of, if you will, black swans in which case risk almost surely would be off.</p>]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-china/risk-onoff/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Solarfun Shines on Volumes &#8211; Analyst Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/solarfun-shines-on-volumes-analyst-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/solarfun-shines-on-volumes-analyst-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2009 18:28:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zacks Market Commentaries</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cent;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Korea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[module processing services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/23943/Solarfun+Shines+on+Volumes+-+Analyst+Blog</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<strong><br />
Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd.</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/SOLF">SOLF</a>) recently reported second-quarter EPADS of 8 cents that easily beat the paltry Zacks Consensus loss per ADS estimate of 4 cents.
<p align="left">However on a GAAP basis, the company sank to a net loss of 87 cents per ADS due to large one-time charges. It lost 64 cents per ADS for a prepayment provision and another 31 cents for changes in fair value of conversion feature of convertible bonds.</p>
<p align="left">Solarfun witnessed a 24.9% sequential rise to record net revenue in excess of $125 million. Photovoltaic (PV) module shipments rose to 64.3MW from 35.7MW in the first quarter. The spike in volumes came from higher PV module shipments and PV module processing services. Of this, Germany continued to account for the lion&#8217;s share, consuming 83% of the company's total PV module shipments during the quarter. Czech Republic, Australia, Korea and Spain accounted for 6%, 5%, 3% and 2%, respectively, of the module shipments during the same period.</p>
<p align="left">The company had cash and cash equivalents of $72.4 million, working capital of $188.7 million and unutilized credit lines worth $84.9 million at the end of the second quarter. Solarfun continues with its capacity expansion programs. It plans to expand its current module capacity of 460MW to 510MW by the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2009. Over the long term, it plans to reach annualized module capacity of 700MW in fiscal 2010.</p>
<p align="left">However, Solarfun saw lower average selling price during the quarter, which was down to $2.66 from $2.78 per watt in the first quarter on account of poorer market prices of PV products. The company sees the trend continuing for the rest of the year and warned that average selling prices could slide as low as $2 per watt. We maintain our market Neutral recommendation on the shares.</p><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=SOLF">Read the full analyst report on "SOLF"</a><br /><a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks Investment Research</a><br />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/solarfun-shines-on-volumes-analyst-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Data Call Technologies, Inc. (DCLT.OB) Now Offering Complete Weather Coverage to 215 Countries</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/data-call-technologies-inc-dclt-ob-now-offering-complete-weather-coverage-to-215-countries/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/data-call-technologies-inc-dclt-ob-now-offering-complete-weather-coverage-to-215-countries/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2009 13:15:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>QualityStocks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Small & Micro Cap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Antarctica]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Argentina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chief technology officer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cuba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Data Call Technologies Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[digital signage networks;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Egypt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greenland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jim Tevis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Arab Emirates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Venezuela]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zimbabwe]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://Blog.QualityStocks.net/?p=17379</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Data Call Technologies, Inc. announced today that it has finalized agreements and development initiatives to provide global meteorological conditions, Doppler radar images, and weather forecasts. According to the press release, the company has already begun marketing these products to entities outside the U.S.
Jim Tevis, Data Call’s Chief Technology Officer, commented, “Many of our U.S. clients [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/data-call-technologies-inc-dclt-ob-now-offering-complete-weather-coverage-to-215-countries/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Suntech Q2 Profit Falls &#8211; Analyst Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/suntech-q2-profit-falls-analyst-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/suntech-q2-profit-falls-analyst-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Aug 2009 22:47:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zacks Market Commentaries</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Belgium]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Benelux]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cent;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greece]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luxembourg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[solar energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Netherlands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wuxi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/23897/Suntech+Q2+Profit+Falls+-+Analyst+Blog</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><strong>Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd.</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/STP">STP</a>) failed to live up to market expectations of a revival in its fiscal second quarter. Although EPADS of 6 cents during the quarter surpassed the Zacks Consensus EPADS estimate of a penny, this was a far cry from the year-ago EPADS of 31 cents. Also, the quarterly results included a $17.5 million foreign exchange gain on account of the appreciation of the euro versus the dollar. Excluding this impact, the company swallowed a loss per ADS of 5 cents during the quarter.<br />
 <br />
On the revenues front, Suntech witnessed a marginal growth of 1.7% sequentially to $321 million. The growth came through higher shipments leading to volume growth over the first quarter of 2009. Suntech&#8217;s dependence on Germany continues, with almost half of its sales coming from the country during the quarter, and Italy chipping in a healthy 13%. The company also generated revenues from France, Greece, Benelux ( Belgium , Netherlands and Luxembourg ) and the Czech Republic . Overall Europe generated approximately 78% of total sales during the quarter. Besides, the company generated 11% from Asia, 8% from North America and 3% from rest of the world.<br />
 <br />
In the second quarter, Suntech witnessed 8% lower average selling price (ASP) from the previous quarter. Still, gross margins rose to 18.6% in the second quarter from 17.8% in the prior quarter. This was due to improvements in the company&#8217;s cost structure on account of lower silicon wafer costs.<br />
 <br />
Wuxi, China-based Suntech is a leading solar energy company in the world. The company designs, develops, manufactures and markets photovoltaic cells and modules. Looking forward, Suntech expects more than 50% spike in shipments in the third quarter over the second quarter. However, the company sees no further room for margin expansion in the near term. The company revised its fiscal 2009 shipment guidance to approximately 600MW from the earlier guidance range of 600MW to 700MW.<br />
<br />
At present, Suntech is trading at a premium to its comparable peers in terms of price-to-book and price-to-sales on account of its leadership position in cell conversion efficiency and improving module manufacturing cost. However, falling ASPs, pruned expansion plans in light of lower demand and dilutive stock issuances make Suntech&#8217;s valuation unappealing in the near term. Thus, we maintain our Neutral recommendation on the shares.</p><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=STP">Read the full analyst report on "STP"</a><br /><a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks Investment Research</a><br />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/suntech-q2-profit-falls-analyst-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Russia-Friendly Missiles?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/russia-friendly-missiles/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/russia-friendly-missiles/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Aug 2009 14:32:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Azerbaijan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boeing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Islamic Republic of Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[paranoia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.20484</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The words "missiles" and "friendly" don't often go together, but the people at Boeing have sensed an opportunity for such semantic innovation - conveniently they could also make a lot of money from the silly imaginary missile games being played...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/russia-friendly-missiles/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>RA&#8217;s Daily Russian News Blast &#8211; August 18, 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/ras-daily-russian-news-blast-august-18-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/ras-daily-russian-news-blast-august-18-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Aug 2009 08:18:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anders Aslund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arctic Sea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Britain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Caucasus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commentator]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foreign Minister]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Human Rights Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ingush Interior Minister]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ingushetia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ingushetian]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ingushetian President]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interior Minister]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Medvedev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Muromtsev Dacha]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Musa Sadulayev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[president]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Putin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reuters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ruslan Meiriyev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sergei Lavrov]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tatyana Lokshina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Financial Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the New York Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the Washington Post]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ukraine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yunus-Bek Yevkurov]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.20446</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[TODAY: Violence explodes in Ingushetia; Interior Minister fired. Wall rumored to be built between Georgia and Abkhazia; Georgia to leave CIS.&#160; Russian diplomats expelled.&#160; Dozens missing in hydropower plant disaster.&#160; Ship found.President Medvedev has dismissed Ingush Interior Minister Ruslan Meiriyev...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/ras-daily-russian-news-blast-august-18-2009/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Biden&#8217;s Cheney Moment</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/bidens-cheney-moment/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/bidens-cheney-moment/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Jul 2009 10:04:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Biden;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cheney Moment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dick Cheney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[president]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vice President]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.19571</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Just a few more thoughts on all this Joe Biden-Russia stuff.&#160; For one, I am in complete agreement with Steve LeVine's opinion that Biden's "firm grasp of reality" is pretty much taken out of context in the WSJ headline -...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/bidens-cheney-moment/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Listening to Eastern Europe</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/listening-to-eastern-europe/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/listening-to-eastern-europe/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2009 14:14:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Afghanistan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alexander Kwasniewski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alexandr Vondra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crimea;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joseph Biden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kiev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latvia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lech Walesa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lithuania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North Atlantic Treaty Organization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil And Gas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prime Minister]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Putin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Macro Trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ukraine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vaclav Havel;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.19461</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ever since Barack Obama's first relatively friendly state visit to Moscow, Washington and the Kremlin have engaged in a showdown of gestures over the elephant in the room:&#160; the legitimacy of Russia's claim to a privileged sphere of influences.&#160; Directly...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/listening-to-eastern-europe/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A Letter to Obama</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/a-letter-to-obama/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/a-letter-to-obama/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Jul 2009 12:31:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Rotfeld]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Afghanistan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alexander Kwasniewski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[anti-globalization activist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Associated Press]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baku]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balkans]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Black Sea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commission of European Communities;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emil Constantinescu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy blockades]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy mix]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy security lies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy supplies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EU Commission]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Euroatlantic Partnership Council]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gazeta Wyborcza;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[German Marshall Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iraq]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ivan Krastev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bove]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kadri Liik]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Karel Schwarzenberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lech Walesa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Butora]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[media manipulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michal Kovac]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nabucco pipeline;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NATO's Partnership]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North Atlantic Treaty Organization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pakistan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paris]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[president]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reuters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sandra Kalniete]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Solidarity;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tbilisi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Alliance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Macro Trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vaclav Havel;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Western Europe]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.19421</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Vaclav Havel, Lech Walesa, and a long list of other former leaders of Eastern European states have penned an open letter to U.S. President Barack Obama expressing their fears over what kinds of sacrifices to their sovereignty might come along...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/a-letter-to-obama/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Cliff Hanging In Bulgaria</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/cliff-hanging-in-bulgaria/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/cliff-hanging-in-bulgaria/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 18:12:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Albania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balkans]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[basis even services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BGN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bisser Boev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boiko Borissov]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[br /br /strongAnother Candidate For Internal Devaluation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bulgaria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canon PowerShot S400 / IXUS 400 Digital Camera;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Capital Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cliff Hanging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[co-finance infrastructure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commission of European Communities;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Croatia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danske Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dnevnik]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy Ministry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edward Hugh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[emergingbr /markets chief]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Estonia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EU Commission]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EUR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[firewall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fitch Ratings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gdp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GERB party]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global economy matters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greece]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gross Domestic Product]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Bank for Reconstruction and Development]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lars Christensen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latvia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lithuania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macedonia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[main lenders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mayor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Metal producer prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mining]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National Statistics Office]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Shearing;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prime Minister]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[producer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retail]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Retail Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samsung 400PX 40 in. HDTV-Ready LCD TV;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Serbia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sergei Stanishev;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Socialist government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sofia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Macro Trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ukraine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-6963277081178645008</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /br /pa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlmdGD2bh-I/AAAAAAAAOoo/P8vnyB3RTno/s1600-h/bulgaria+population.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 258px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357485959172294626" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlmdGD2bh-I/AAAAAAAAOoo/P8vnyB3RTno/s400/bulgaria+population.png" //abr /br /br /The International Monetary Fund this week forecast the recession in Bulgaria would be deeper than it previously predicted. Such a decision should come as no surprise to anyone, since the country's economic dynamics in both the short and long term look extremely unstable, and Bulgaria is now almost certainly headed towards a series of more or less hair-raising roller-coaster rides. Even the briefest of glances at the population chart above should lead even the most sceptical among us to stop and think a little about the possible economic implications of such an appauling demographic outlook. As can be seen, the opening to the west brought a sharp outflow of people in the late 1980s (mainly ethnic Turks), but the important thing to note is that the decline has continued almost continuously ever since. That is, the decline was not a one-off demographic "shock", but rather it has become a way of life (or, if you prefer, of death, since deaths constantly outnumber births, even before you consider emigration). And it is this "terminal style" dynamic which virtually guarantess that the coming ride will be a bumpy one, not only in the short term (guaranteed by the size of the current account deficit - 25% - which Bulgaria needs to correct) but in the longer term, since according to any known growth theory there is simply no way any country can sustain headline GDP expansion with potential labour force and population contractions of this magnitude.br /br /strongSharp Recession in 2009/strongbr /br /Well, to come down to earth with a bump, let's now get into the immediate situation, and down to the fact that the IMF now expects Bulgaria’s economy to shrink by 7 percent in 2009 (previously they were forecasting a 3.5 percent contraction). They also upped (or downed) their 2010 outlook to an anticipated 2.5 percent contraction, from an earlier 1 percent one, although such an adjustment at this point this is now better than mere guesswork. The point is we are in for a severe contraction, and it isn't going to be any laughing matter.br /br /The IMF revision also follows last weeks announcement that it now expects a “sluggish” global economic recovery and its 2009 forecast reduction for central and eastern European, which went to a 5 percent contraction from an earlier 3.7 percent one.br /br /The heart of the Bulgarian problem at the moment stems from the need to correct a current account deficit which reached 25pc of GDP in 2008, the highest of the 80 emerging markets around the world tracked by Fitch Ratings. Gross external debt reached 102 percent of GDP.br /br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlicspjK3sI/AAAAAAAAOms/fOshCXR7_Pc/s1600-h/bulgaria+CA+deficit.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 225px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357204047638748866" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlicspjK3sI/AAAAAAAAOms/fOshCXR7_Pc/s400/bulgaria+CA+deficit.png" //abr /br /Bulgaria faces a drastic process of external adjustment process which with the shadow of the current international economic crisis hanging over it will surely be far from painless. Vulnerabilities accumulated during the boom period - a marked rise in private sector external, debt along with a rapid increase in credit growth and widespread FX-denominated borrowing - will make demonstrating unwavering commitment to the currency board arrangement very hard work indeed. Neil Shearing at Capital Economics estimates Bulgaria’s external financing needs at $25 billion this year, including the current-account deficit, short-term private foreign debt payments and interest payments. Foreign investment has fallen by almost half over the last year. Meanwhile private deb is up to just shy of 100 percent of gross domestic product, while the government budget revenue fell 6 percent in May.br /br /br /br /br /strongPlummeting GDP/strongbr /br /br /The Bulgarian economy contracted 3.5 percent in the first quarter when compared with the first quarter of 2008, according to the most recent figures from the National Statistics Office. The turnround is massive when you consider that the economy actually grew by 3.5 percent year on year in the last three months of 2008. In fact, GDP actually shrank by 5 percent from the fourth quarter (or at an annual 20% rate), when it contracted 1.6 percent, according to quarterly data which the statistics institute published for the first time. At this speed, I would say the IMF estimate is well short of the likely outcome, and we could well be looking at a double digit contraction.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slic7GmLG1I/AAAAAAAAOm0/N4iMVFgiRlc/s1600-h/bulgaria+GDP.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 204px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357204295954144082" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slic7GmLG1I/AAAAAAAAOm0/N4iMVFgiRlc/s400/bulgaria+GDP.png" //abr /br /Domestic consumption fell 5.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier after a 1.4 percent increase in the previous three months. Industrial output, which makes up 31 percent of total GDP, plummeted an annual 12.4 percent in the first quarter, after a 3.7 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2009. Agricultural output, which accounts for 4 percent of the economy, dropped 4 percent after rising 26.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Services, which make up 65 percent of GDP, rose an annual 2.5 percent after a 3.8 percent gain in the previous quarter, although it is obvious that on a quarter over quarter basis even services are now contracting.br /br /First-quarter exports dropped 17.4 percent, while imports dropped 21 percent, meaning that the net trade impact on GDP was positive.br /br /br /strongShort Term Indicators/strongbr /br /br /Bulgarian industrial production continues to fall and was 22.1 percent from a year earlier in May - the eighth consecutive monthly decline. Output was also down month on month - by 1 percent over April. Retail sales dropped an annual 10.4 percent in May.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SligIsPRYFI/AAAAAAAAOnY/_OEyFwlsvoc/s1600-h/Bulgaria+IP+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 233px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357207827931816018" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SligIsPRYFI/AAAAAAAAOnY/_OEyFwlsvoc/s400/Bulgaria+IP+two.png" //abr /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SligEPw0AII/AAAAAAAAOnM/_qRNyf4K5LQ/s1600-h/Bulgaria+IP+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 233px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357207751568392322" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SligEPw0AII/AAAAAAAAOnM/_qRNyf4K5LQ/s400/Bulgaria+IP+one.png" //abr /Construction activity is also well down, falling by 9 percent in April, over April 2008 according to Eurostat data.br /br /br /br //ppa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlidIIljhlI/AAAAAAAAOm8/hKx_y2KaVg8/s1600-h/bulgaria+construction.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 205px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357204519826720338" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlidIIljhlI/AAAAAAAAOm8/hKx_y2KaVg8/s400/bulgaria+construction.png" //a Donestic demand is also in full retreat, as evidenced by retail sales which were down by 3% year on year in May, with the pace of decline steadily increasing.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlihALFeqTI/AAAAAAAAOn4/gigxC_4bnyU/s1600-h/bulgaria+retail+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 205px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357208781105047858" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlihALFeqTI/AAAAAAAAOn4/gigxC_4bnyU/s400/bulgaria+retail+two.png" //abr /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slig7hHUosI/AAAAAAAAOnw/fl4GR8rKUXQ/s1600-h/bulgaria+retail+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 203px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357208701119013570" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slig7hHUosI/AAAAAAAAOnw/fl4GR8rKUXQ/s400/bulgaria+retail+one.png" //a /pbr /pUnemployment is also rising, and hit 6.5% in May, according to the EU harmonised methodology. This is still comparatively low, but the rate will continue to rise sharply throughout the rest of this year.br /br //pa href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlihKlHP8NI/AAAAAAAAOoA/eVZIKWwXHA0/s1600-h/bulgaria+unemployment.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 206px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357208959890485458" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SlihKlHP8NI/AAAAAAAAOoA/eVZIKWwXHA0/s400/bulgaria+unemployment.png" //abr /br /br /With all this contraction going on, deflation must surely be looming for Bulgaria, but given the very high levels which inflation hit in the second half of last year, the annual rate of inflation continues in positive territory, and what we are seeing for the time being is rapid disinflation. Bulgaria's annual inflation rate fell to 3.9 percent in May from 4.8 percent in April. This is already the lowest level since July 2005, but there is surely much more to come, and consumer prices actually fell 0.3 percent month on month from April, and basically prices are little changed now over the start of the year. Bulgaria’s EU harmonized inflation rate, slowed to 3 percent in May from 3.8 percent in April. Using this measure prices stagnated on the month after gaining 0.5 percent in April.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SliglbU_yXI/AAAAAAAAOng/lXI-H33wA7w/s1600-h/bulgaria+CPI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 234px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357208321608632690" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SliglbU_yXI/AAAAAAAAOng/lXI-H33wA7w/s400/bulgaria+CPI.png" //abr /br /More evidence of the deflationary pressures which are now about to arrive can be found in Bulgarian producer prices, which slumped the most in more than a decade in May, led by falling manufacturing, mining and quarrying costs. Factory-gate prices dropped 3.2 percent on an annual basis after a 2.3 percent decline in April. Producer prices rose 0.3 percent in the month, after April’s 0.8 percent decline.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SligwV_fDqI/AAAAAAAAOno/WQNyTCjp7O0/s1600-h/bulgaria+PPI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 232px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357208509154791074" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SligwV_fDqI/AAAAAAAAOno/WQNyTCjp7O0/s400/bulgaria+PPI.png" //abr /Mining and quarrying producer prices slumped 13.4 percent in the year, reflecting a global decline in commodity prices, after a 15.7 percent drop in April. Metal producer prices plummeted 30.9 percent in year, after a 29 percent decline in the previous month.br /br /strongAnother Candidate For Internal Devaluation?/strongbr /br /Many supporters of the continuty of the current Currency Board Arrangement aregue that while the adjustment process is likely to be a bumpy one the CBA should be able to ride out the storm. I severely doubt this, for many of the reasons I have already offered in the case of the Baltic Countries (a href="http://latviaeconomy.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-imfs-decision-to-agree-lavian.html"here/a, a href="http://latviaeconomy.blogspot.com/2009/01/why-latvia-needs-to-devalue-soon-reply.html"here/a, a href="http://latviaeconomy.blogspot.com/2009/06/latvia-devalue-now-or-devalue-later.html"here/a, and a href="http://fistfulofeuros.net/afem/demographics/the-long-and-difficult-road-to-wage-cuts-as-an-alternative-to-devaluation/"here/a). Advocates for maintaining the peg argue the CBA is solidly based and able to weather adverse shocks, given the substantial buffers accumulated in the fiscal reserve account (around 15.0% of GDP) and the existence of large foreign reserves. Bulgaria’s "safety margin" - the sum of international reserves and the domestic currency component of the government’s fiscal reserve account — is estimated to be around 48% of GDP. This compares favourably with the rating agencies’ estimate of contingent liabilities from the financial sector under a reasonable worst case of around 30% of GDP (Standard and Poor’s, 2009). Also, as in the Baltics there is strong feeling of national identification with the CBA, which, coupled with the solid backing of all potential stakeholders (the EU and the IMF in particular), could be consided to offer a robust anchor to the CBA. But as with the Baltics, this kind of support may not be sufficient. Lets have a look at why not.br /br /The first and most obvious issue is the competitiveness one. Since Bulgaria's domestic construction, borrowing and spending bubble has now most definitely burst, and since government spending will be brought under a tight lease by the IMF (when they inevitably arrive) Bulgaria is now (like the Baltics) destined to live by exports (not only live, but also pay down some of the accumulated debt) and this is just where we hit a snag. If we look at the chart for Bulgaria's Real Effective Exchange Rate, then we will see that the country has experienced a significant drop in international competitiveness since the end of 2005, due largely to the high level of inflation the country has suffered.br /br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slm6W-Pt2PI/AAAAAAAAOow/7j7cMzQwP8Q/s1600-h/bulgaria+REER.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 233px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5357518135562721522" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Slm6W-Pt2PI/AAAAAAAAOow/7j7cMzQwP8Q/s400/bulgaria+REER.png" //abr /br /Wage costs have risen significantly, and even as recently as the first quarter of this year total hourly labour cost rose by an annual 19.2%. The total hourly labour cost was up by 18.5% in industry, by 16.3% in services and by 32.2% in construction according to the statistics office.br /br /Basically then, in order to maintain the CBA Bulgaria will need what is called an "internal devaluation" (generalised reduction in prices and wages) of something like 20%, and seeing the pace at which this process has progressed in the Baltics, there are serious questions about whether Bulgaria would be able to implement such an internal devaluation (ecen with IMF support) before it gets caught in a vicious and painful spiral of falling GDP, falling tax income, falling government spending and even more rapidly falling GDP. Also, unlike the case of the Baltics, where the other Scandinavian countries have been able to render assistance to some extent, there is no obvious external supporter for the Bulgarian peg, and indeed the banking system in some of the countries involved in Bulgaria (Greece in particular) may be nothing like as strong or willing to maintain funding as their Swedish counterparts.br /br /Nonetheless the Bulgarian central bank rejects devaluation, saying the country’s reserves of $16 billion is sufficient to protect the peg, and favours an “internal devaluation” byforcing down domestic wages and prices, a process which will weaken domestic demand, trigger deflation and prolong recession in my view.br /br /Further, since there is no realistic prospect of Bulgarian euro membership in the short term, sticking to the peg for the sole purpose of quickly adopting the euro is a non sequitur, and there is no obvious exit strategy in sight.br /br /On the other hand, while a devaluation would obviously close the current account gap far less painfully, it would not help improve Bulgaria's external financing picture owing to adverse balance sheet effects and the likely rise in bankruptcies. But as has been amply discussed in the Baltic case, the difference with an internal devaluation does not exist from this point of view, and indeed the internal devaluation path may be even more damaging given that even those with loans in Lev would be affected.br /br /The current account will adjust in either case, since it has to, as financing is no longer viable, but this can either be done more painfully, or less painfully, and this is the real question. On the face of it Bulgaria’s incoming government, led by Sofia Mayor Boiko Borissov, advocates taking a loan from the IMF and the World Bank, and following in the footsteps of Latvia, Romania, Hungary, Serbia and Ukraine. The outgoing Socialist government ruled out any international loans. Negotiations are expected to start shortly after the new Cabinet takes office, with the loan itself would probably coming at the end of this year or during the first quarter of 2010, according to Bisser Boev, an economist in the election winning GERB party, in an interview last week.br /br /Neil Shearing, an emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, goes further, and says Bulgaria’s next government faces a deepening recession and an “imminent” loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Basically I agree with Neil: the loan will come sooner rather than later, since having the "bad cop" of the IMF to wave is the only way the new government will be able to govern and implement the internal devaluation, which it is likely will be attempted for a time, even if a breaking of the peg is the most probable medium term outcome.br /br /Neil Shearing also forecasts Bulgaria’s economy will contract by 5 percent this year and 4 percent in 2010. My own feeling is that Neil is a bit to cautious here, and looking at the Q1 contraction and the pace of the decline since, we may well be in for a double figure (10 percent plus) 2009 contraction. Evidence from the Baltics would also tend to confirm this view: struggling to maintain a currency peg in this environment can be very costly in terms of lost GDP, since almost all the burden of current account correction falls on reducing imports, with exports falling rather than rising due to short term competitivity issues, especially when a number of other countries - Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Hungary may either devalue or see their currencies fall through sell-offs if they try to lower the currently punitive interest rate firewall (Hungary and Romania).br /br /br /The markets also appear to be far from convinced, and credit-default swaps linked to Bulgarian five-year bonds are up in the region of 400 basis points from the one year low of 290.4 hit on May 20, as perceptions of credit quality deteriorate.br /br /br /br /The coalition must work immediately to shore up revenue, which may fall as much as 3 billion lev ($2.1 billion) this year, said Boev, who was part of the team that mapped GERB’s economic policies and has been suggested by daily Dnevnik as the top candidate to run the Economy Ministry. “We’ll urgently revise the budget and cut what we can, postpone or freeze spending where we can,” said Boev. “This is our first task.” Bulgaria can only afford to co-finance infrastructure projects to bring roads and railways to EU requirements, Boev said. Restoring access to EU funds, which were frozen in 2008 over suspicions of graft, is crucial, he said. Bulgaria stands to receive 11 billion euros ($15.3 billion) in EU subsidies by 2013 to bring living standards closer to EU levels. Boev said the government would be “prepared” to cut investment spending and administrative costs, though it will leave social spending alone because reductions would generate additional unemployment.br /br /br /The IMF forecast a budget deficit of 1 percent of gross domestic product this year and urged the previous government to cut spending by 20 percent. Ousted Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev froze public sector wages less than a month before the elections.br /br /strongThe Risk Of Spillovers/strongbr /blockquote"The macro-situation in Bulgaria is dire," said Lars Christensen, emergingbr /markets chief at Danske Bank.Foreign investment has plummeted. The downturn inbr /the economy accelerated in May and June. While the new government is anbr /improvement, I would not rule out a drop in GDP of 15 to 20pc from peak tobr /trough," he said. My concern is that this is going to spill over into otherbr /countries. If you look at the main lenders, they are Greece, Hungary (OTP bank),br /and Italy."/blockquotepThe danger of a messy ending in Bulgaria adds another twist to the contagion worries which is facing Eastern and Southern Europe in the wake of the global crisis. A break in the Latvian peg (now, not in six months time) would be a blow, but it would, in my opinion, be containable. Estonia and Lithuania would have to correct in line, and pressure would come on Hungary and Romania, but if the Bulgarian peg goes, not in a managed devaluation but as part of a financial crisis inspired rout, which associated political chaos then the problems could rapidly escalate, immediately to four other countries in the west Balkans (Serbia, Croatia, Macedonia and Albania) and more indirectly down into an already weakend Southern Europe via the Greek and Italian banking systems. /ppBut, you might ask, aren’t the Balkan economies too small to be a potential problem for Europe? This is true, but we need to bear in mind that all four of these nations, despite being outside the European Union, are in fact effectively euroised economies - in all cases their currencies are pegged to the euro. In addition all the Balkan countries have very close economic ties with southern Europe via the channel of expatriate remittances. And the economic problems which currently exist in Greece and Italy only serve to further weaken the nations of the Western Balkans, due to the strong trade linkages that exist within the region. These impacts will in their turn work their way back negatively into Greece and Italy due to their role in funding the region. South Eastern Europe could therefore, be quite literally at risk of economic seize-up.br /br /And we should never forget that the political consequences of economic and currency reversals in the Western Balkans are potentially far greater than the Baltics simply because the former region has a population three times greater than that of the latter.br /br /To be precise, maintaining Balkan GDP involves significant currency corrections. These corrections can take place by formal devaluations, or via the so-called "internal devaluation" process. The slower the Balkan currencies correct, the greater the depth and length of the recession. Basically, under these circumstances, I think that the incentive to devalue will, in the end, be too great. The immediate impact of such devlaluations will be most painful for countries like Croatia, which has a large proportion of euro-denominated loans.br /br /When it comes to the short term dynamics of the looming currency crisis in Emerging Europe, one of the Baltic Three, probably Latvia, will be first to concede its peg. When it does others are almost bound to follow. Everything depends on whether the EU Commission and the IMF are proactive or limit themselves to a mere reactive, problem containment role. If the Latvian currency realignment is done in an organised and systematic fashion, then it may, even at this late date, be a containable process. If the situation is left to fester, and the country falls into the grip of a growing political anarchy, then containment will be much more difficult, since panic will more than likely set in./ppA similar situation pertains in Bulgaria. Absent a Latvian devaluation, it is not unthinkable that the Lev peg may be maintained for another year or so. But if the authorities do go down this road, then we face the severe risk of a raggedy ending, since the problem is not one of sustaining the peg, but of restoring competitiveness and economic growth, and this is much more difficult without a formal devaluation. And if Bulgaria goes hurtling off that cliff on which it is currently perched, then just be damn careful it doesn't drag half of South Eastern Europe careering after it./pdiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-6963277081178645008?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/cliff-hanging-in-bulgaria/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Monster Fighting the Recession  &#8211; Analyst Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/monster-fighting-the-recession-analyst-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/monster-fighting-the-recession-analyst-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 20:26:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zacks Market Commentaries</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cambridge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Malaysia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Massachusetts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Delhi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retail]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[social media sites;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[technology center]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[technology group;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Macro Trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/22028/Monster+Fighting+the+Recession++-+Analyst+Blog</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<br />
New York-based <strong>Monster Worldwide Inc.</strong> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/mww">MWW</a>) is an online recruitment firm and the parent company of Monster.com, the leading career website in the world.
<p align="left">Yesterday, the company announced plans to open a new technology center of Excellence &#38; Innovation in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and make certain organizational changes. Monster plans to add more staff to this center in the foreseeable future. As part of organizational changes, the company will eliminate approximately 160 positions within the product and technology group on a global basis.</p>
<p align="left">Monster is now actively recruiting for approximately 80 new technical positions to be located in the Cambridge center, with potential capacity for adding a total of 170 new positions at this center. The company already has technological centers in Massachusetts, California, Czech Republic, Malaysia and New Delhi. Monster believes that Cambridge is a strategic location for its business.</p>
<p align="left">The company&#8216;s business has been adversely affected by the economic downturn. The weak global economy has significantly impacted hiring demand in the past eighteen months. Companies have reduced headcount, frozen hiring and delayed recruitment-related decisions. Many key industry verticals that Monster serves, such as financial services, retail, manufacturing and construction, have been severely hit and might not be able to renew their contracts with the company.</p>
<p align="left">Moreover, we believe competition has intensified in the industry over the last few years and taken away market share from Monster. While Monster once had a dominant position, there are now several national competitors (i.e., CareerBuilder and HotJobs) as well as niche sites (i.e., Dice, JobsintheMoney, TheLadders, SnagAJob, etc.). A number of premium recruiters have reduced their use of job boards in favor of alternative social media sites such as LinkedIn.</p>
<p align="left">In response to this downtrend, the company has justifiably been repositioning itself and making efforts to improve its technology in order to improve the experience for both job seekers and corporate clients. We maintain our Hold on the stock.</p><br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=MWW">Read the full analyst report on "MWW"</a><br /><a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks Investment Research</a><br />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/monster-fighting-the-recession-analyst-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Russia&#8217;s Energy Spies</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/russias-energy-spies/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/russias-energy-spies/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Jun 2009 16:32:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bulgaria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[counter-intelligence agency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roman Kupchinsky;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.19134</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Please believe me that I'm not just making this one up.&#160; According to a report in Die Welt am Sonntag, Germany's counter-intelligence agency has its hands full dealing with an influx of SVR agents from Russia targeting the energy sector....]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/russias-energy-spies/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Calling in the Bluffs on Missiles</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/calling-in-the-bluffs-on-missiles/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/calling-in-the-bluffs-on-missiles/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2009 09:59:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Cartright;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reasonable and cooperative solution;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[William J. Lynn;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.19030</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It's an interesting move for the Obama administration to propose the involvement of Russia in an alternative anti-ballistic missile shield effort, just two and a half weeks before the state visit to Moscow.&#160; On the one hand, Washington is opening...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/calling-in-the-bluffs-on-missiles/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Banking Problems In Southern  Europe Send The Whole World Running For Cover</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/banking-problems-in-southern-europe-send-the-whole-world-running-for-cover/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/banking-problems-in-southern-europe-send-the-whole-world-running-for-cover/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2009 12:16:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Berlin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commission of European Communities;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edward Hugh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elena Salgado;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EU Commission]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EUR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fitch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Frankfurt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global economy matters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greece]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gwen Robinson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latvia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Madrid]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ratings agency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spanish government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the second anniversary of the commencement;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-8884971747789914043</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Well that so called investor "risk appetite" took a surprise hit yesterday (and from an unexpected quarter). It wasn't the worries about US fiscal deficits that caused the panic, but problems in the European banking system. a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/06/16/57171/investor-fears-cut-risk-appetite/"Gwen Robinson reports/a:br /br /blockquoteRisk appetite suffered a sharp deterioration on Monday as fresh uncertainty about the global economy prompted investors to shift from equities, commodities and emerging market assets into the perceived safety of government bonds and the dollar. Markets were further unnerved by warnings on the economic outlook from the head of the IMF and an ECB report saying eurozone banks face another $283bn in writedowns on bad loans and securities this year and next./blockquotebr /As Izabella Kaminska notes, a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=117027956538h=wHY-pu=bc40uref=nf"it is Southern Europe that is now getting all the attention/a.br /br /blockquoteThis time it’s the turn of 25 Spanish banks, all of whose senior ratings were on Friday downgraded by Moody’s. Banco Santander, of “we’re so strong we’re actually going to expand through the crisis” fame, meanwhile, remains under review for possible downgrade......./blockquotebr /Also, a href="http://www.blooomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009sid=a826Wq9eR7eE"this one in Bloomberg/a:br /br /blockquoteA Spanish fund planned to aid lenders will be set up with 9 billion euros ($12.6 billion) and will have the capacity to raise an additional 90 billion euros in debt, Finance Minister Elena Salgado said.  The government is still working on the details of the plan, which will need the approval of parliament, Salgado told a news conference in Madrid today after a weekly Cabinet meeting. The government would raise the initial 9 billion euros with a debt issue, she said, adding that there was “no hurry” as “there is not one entity in difficulty.” br /br /As unemployment and bankruptcies surge, bad loans at Spain’s banks rose 4.27 percent of total credit in March, the highest since 1996, compared with 1.2 percent a year earlier./blockquotebr /But as Isabella detailed: "Moody’s also noted that a significant government capital injection - which apparently has been discussed for some time now by the Spanish government and the banking sector — could prompt subsequent upgrades of some BFSRs. "br /br /And guess what else it might prompt, more downgrades in Spanish sovereign debt, that's what it might prompt. Economy Minister Elena Salgado was widely quoted in the press last week, giving an estimate of 9.5% total fiscal deficit for 2009 (not bad my guess of 9% back in February, I think). But they are still hoping for a contraction this year of only minus three percent, and this seems very optimistic, so the outcome will surely be a deficit in double figures.br /br /This, in my view, is the last year that the financial markets will pardon such a deficit from Spain, and we will now be under fiscal pressure as well as relative price pressure. Essentially, I agree with Krugman (or should that be, given the NYT links, Krugman agrees with me) and what we need in Spain is an  "internal devaluation" of about 20% to jumpstart the economy - and this is 20% vis a vis Germany, where they are also having deflation, so the size of the correction is very large. And at this point - August will mark the second anniversary of the commencement of what looks like becoming Spain's "lost decade" - we haven't even started.br /br /And Greece is also moving towards centre stage, as a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/db00e69a-59c8-11de-b687-00144feabdc0.html"the FTs Kerin Hope details in this article/a:br /blockquoteAfter a decade of explosive loan growth triggered by Greece’s entry to the eurozone, the country’s banks are experiencing the downside of a financial cycle for the first time as the economy stutters in the global downturn.br /br /Exports are declining, the tourist season has got off to a poor start and the Greek economy is projected to shrink by about 1 per cent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. Years of excessive spending have pushed up the public debt to almost 98 per cent of gross domestic product.So far the banks have shown some resilience, assisted by a €28bn government support package that included a €5bn capital injection in preferred shares, and there have not been any government bail-outs of individual banks.........br /br /However, the situation may be about to worsen with analysts forecasting bad loans will rise this year from 3.8 per cent to about 6 per cent before peaking in the first half of 2010. Meanwhile, Fitch, the ratings agency, last week warned the banks’ performance for the rest of the year would likely be hit by higher loan impairment charges./blockquotebr /br /So the world seems to work like this. Latvia gets battoned down for a few months via a few billion in loans from the IMF and the EU Commission. As a result, the Baltics now become yesterday's story - till they aren't again, of course. And we move on, as I more or less feared, and its time to begin to focus on Southern Europe again (while Eastern Europe deteriorates sufficiently to make it back into the headlines). I think people can only keep so many things in their head at any one time.br /br /Basically the whole EU system seems to be in denial on what is happening at the moment. The markets have been focused on the East, but they are now starting to wake up to the fact that the South is still here, and when this "matures" we will have a full blown financial crisis, that is for sure. At that poiunt the Spanish and Greek governments will effectively lose control of the situation, just as they have done in Latvia and Hungary.br /br /This is one of the reasons I am following Latvia closely. Basically what is happening in the East is a sort of "dry run" for what is going to have to have to happen in the South. The whole package, from "fiscal austerity" as a tool to attack recessions, to "internal devaluation" via price and wage deflation is about to be applied in the South as a path towards restoring export competitiveness and economic growth.br /br /There has been a lot of talk, of late, about the contagion danger from Latvia, but few seem to consider the possibility that - given the way the EU itself is putting its credibility on the line in the Latvian case - if finally Latvia folds (and devalues, as I feel it must), then the contagion problem could leap straight to the South from the East. Obviously Romania is looking very vulnerable to anything that happens virtually anywhere, but Spain looks a lot more vulnerable to me at this point than either Poland or the Czech Republic, due to the massive external financing requirement.br /br /Basically investors have now started to remember that Greece and Spain still exist. I suppose we will now see the crisis zigger-zagger across from the South to the East and back again, with the German real economy receiving body blows on both counts in the middle.br /br /Meantime in Berlin and Frankfurt they seem to be mainly worried about the US fiscal deficit at this point. Stange what makes people tick.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-8884971747789914043?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/banking-problems-in-southern-europe-send-the-whole-world-running-for-cover/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Obama&#8217;s Moscow Challenge</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/obamas-moscow-challenge/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/obamas-moscow-challenge/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2009 10:08:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ahmadinejad;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrei Illarionov]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bush]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bush administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carnegie Moscow Center;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cato Institute]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Islamic Republic of Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lilia Shevtsova;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Putin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tehran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.19009</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Barack Obama's much-anticipated first trip to Moscow is approaching, but will the new President's peacemaking endeavours be as effective on the Kremlin as they has been in other contexts?&#160; As Russia welcomes Iranian President Ahmadinejad to the SCO summit, leaving...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/obamas-moscow-challenge/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Outsourcing Hubs Find Ways to Tap Into European Market</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/outsourcing-hubs-find-ways-to-tap-into-european-market/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/outsourcing-hubs-find-ways-to-tap-into-european-market/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2009 13:55:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Outsourcing Insider</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bucharest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[higher level services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India Inc.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Infosys]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Outsourcing Insider]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Macro Trader]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Philippines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.blog.infinit-o.com/?p=339</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Reading the Indian mainstream news yesterday about India Inc.’s strategy to expand operations in Eastern Europe and hire multilinguals to serve the European finance and accounting sector does not surprise me anymore. In my April article, I talked about how Europe is becoming more comfortable with outsourcing not just to its neighboring countries but also [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/outsourcing-hubs-find-ways-to-tap-into-european-market/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A Question of Linkage</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/a-question-of-linkage/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/a-question-of-linkage/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Jun 2009 17:17:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dmitri Medvedev]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Islamic Republic of Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryabkov;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TIME;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.18979</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to this piece in TIME, Russia may be on the cusp of changing its policy toward Iran and cooperating with the United States on strengthening sanctions - but maybe not.&#160; Although the warmer diplomacy from the Obama administration has...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/a-question-of-linkage/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The European Parliament election of 2009:  the &#8220;summer of discontent&#8221; poll?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/the-european-parliament-election-of-2009-the-summer-of-discontent-poll/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/the-european-parliament-election-of-2009-the-summer-of-discontent-poll/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Jun 2009 15:48:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manuel Alvarez-Rivera</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bulgaria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA);]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Democrats 66 (D66);]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[El Pais]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electoral systems;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[european commission]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Parliament]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geert Wilders;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global economy matters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Grand Duchy of Luxembourg;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Great Britain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jan  Peter Balkenende]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Labour Party]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manuel Alvarez-Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Northern Ireland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Party for Freedom (PVV);]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Party for Freedom;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Portugal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scotland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Silvio Berlusconi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Netherlands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[villa of Italian Prime Minister;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wales]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-4129750866343158750</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Manuel Alvarez-Rivera, Puerto Ricobr /br /An election is currently taking place in the 27 member countries of the European Union, to choose 736 members of the European Parliament for a term of five years. Some countries went to the polls on June 4, 5 and 6, but most are holding the election on Sunday, June 7. In addition, one of the smallest members of the EU, the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, will hold a parliamentary election simultaneously with the EP poll.br /br /The European Parliament a href="http://www.europarl.europa.eu/elections2009/default.htm"2009 elections website/a bills the event as "27 countries, one election," but it would be more appropriate to speak about 27 separate elections that happen to be held simultaneously across a four-day period. Even though all EU countries use proportional representation to allocate EP seats since 1999 (when Great Britain proper switched from first-past-the-post to PR), the rules vary from country to country, and the U.K. actually uses two electoral systems: closed party-list PR for England, Scotland and Wales; and the Single Transferable Vote (STV) for Northern Ireland's three EP seats (the latter since 1979, when the European Parliament became a popularly elected body).br /br /In addition, European elections tend to be dominated as much by national issues as by European issues - hardly surprising in light of the fact that the elections are contested by not by EU-wide parties but by the political parties active in each member country, which subsequently form parliamentary groups in the European Parliament that reflect Europe's major political currents (i.e. Socialist, Liberal, Conservative, Green and so on). In fact, European elections in many countries are little more than glorified mid-term elections, or in some cases (such as Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Portugal) dress rehearsals for general elections to be held later this year.br /br /Meanwhile, in some countries this year's European poll has been overshadowed by national scandals, such as the ongoing M.P.s' expenses controversy in the United Kingdom, and more recently the publication by the Spanish newspaper "El País" of racy photos taken in the private villa of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi - who already faces a messy divorce and had previously secured a ban over the publication of the controversial pictures in Italian news media.br /br /Just as important, the EP vote is taking place in the middle of a global financial crisis that has hit the newer members from Eastern Europe particularly hard. The now-wobbly economies of many of these countries appears to have reinforced a growing sense of "buyer remorse" - or more accurately, admission remorse - among large sectors of public opinion in many Western European EU members, which already had serious reservations about bringing in countries that had considerably lower standards of living and of governmental transparency - in particular Romania and Bulgaria, the EU's two newest (and poorest) members.br /br /As it happens, the economic hardships brought about by the ongoing financial crisis appear to have created a fertile environment in many countries for right-wing populist parties preaching a thinly veiled racist and xenophobic discourse, typically anti-immigration, anti-Islamic and often anti-East European as well as anti-EU. These parties, which have developed a motivated following, may also benefit from the low voter turnout that has characterized recent European elections in most member countries.br /br /The declining turnout rates in European elections constitute something of a paradox, as the European Parliament has actually become a more powerful institution over the course of the last three decades. However, an Eurobarometer survey (a href="http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb_special_en.htm"EB71.1/a) carried out in January and February of this year indicates that while a slight plurality of respondents believes the EP's role within the European Union has been strengthened during the last decade, nearly as many say it has stayed the same or has been weakened.br /br /Moreover, the European Parliament does not yet play a role as powerful with respect to the European Commission - the EU's executive - as that of national parliaments relative to their respective governments: for example, EP approval is not always necessary for EU legislation. The less-than-straightforward role of the European Parliament within the EU - somewhat reminiscent of that of a 19suputh/u/sup century parliament under a limited monarchy - appears to be a major factor contributing to the low turnout: in the Eurobarometer survey, an insufficient understanding of the EP's role was cited as the main reason for not voting in European elections.br /br /However, a large plurality of Eurobarometer respondents indicated they would like to see the European Parliament play a more important role than it currently does; in fact, the EP's role will be significantly strengthened if the Lisbon Treaty is ultimately approved - a development that might raise the institution's relatively low profile and pave the way for higher turnout rates in future European elections. In the meantime, the sad truth remains that for many EU voters, EP elections don't even register on the radar - less than a third of respondents was aware an European election was due this year, according to the Eurobarometer survey - or simply aren't viewed as relevant: the perceptions that voting in the event would not change anything, and that the EP did not sufficiently deal with problems concerning respondents were the second and fourth most frequently cited reasons for not voting in the election; not being sufficiently informed to go to vote ranked third.br /br /European election results were not supposed to be available until Sunday evening, but in an unprecedented breach of rules, the outcome of the European vote in the Netherlands became available after the polls closed there last June 4, much to the displeasure of EU officials; preliminary figures have the right-wing populist Party for Freedom (PVV) in a strong second place, just behind the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) party of Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende. Meanwhile, the Labour Party (PvdA) - the junior partner in Balkenende's coalition government - suffered heavy losses, but the opposition, social liberal Democrats 66 (D66) soared to their best EP result since 1994. However, the turnout rate stood at just 36.5%, well below the 80.4% turnout in the country's 2006 general election.br /br /There is no doubt the Party for Freedom - whose leader, Geert Wilders faces prosecution for making anti-Islamic statements - has tapped into a strong undercurrent of discontent in the Netherlands (at least among those bothering to vote in the election there), but it remains to be seen how strongly and in what manner will that discontent manifest itself in other EU countries.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='//blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-4129750866343158750?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/the-european-parliament-election-of-2009-the-summer-of-discontent-poll/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Latvia’s Economic Collapse: 2 Ways to Play the Baltic Region’s Financial Firestorm</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/latvia%e2%80%99s-economic-collapse-2-ways-to-play-the-baltic-region%e2%80%99s-financial-firestorm/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/latvia%e2%80%99s-economic-collapse-2-ways-to-play-the-baltic-region%e2%80%99s-financial-firestorm/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Jun 2009 19:58:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltic states]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bulgaria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[contrarian profits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EUR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Government Services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iShares MSCI Austria Index;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iShares MSCI Sweden Index;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latvia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lithuania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marc Lichtenfeld;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Denholm;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSCI Austria;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSCI Sweden;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stockholm Stock Exchange;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sweden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vienna Stock Exchange;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=17602</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[pBack in February, I wrote about an impending crisis in Eastern Europe. In a href="http://www.smartprofitsreport.com/spr/the-global-economy.html"my column/a, I mentioned that if Eastern Europe begins to head downhill, we could see a domino effect, with the contagion spreading very quickly. Yesterday, the first domino may have fallen, courtesy of debt-laden Latvia. The country attempted to raise $100 million by selling debt securities. But there were no takers. Let me repeat that. Latvia didn’t raise one measly dollar. That is staggering./p
pSo why should we even care about this tiny Baltic country whose population is equivalent to that of Houston?/p
pSimple. Because these things ripple across borders. Here’s what it means for the rest of Europe - and how to play it…strong/strong/p
pstrongThe Little Guys Need A#8230;/strong/p]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/latvia%e2%80%99s-economic-collapse-2-ways-to-play-the-baltic-region%e2%80%99s-financial-firestorm/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>May Manufacturing Improves Again According To The JPMorgan Global PMI Report</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/may-manufacturing-improves-again-according-to-the-jpmorgan-global-pmi-report/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/may-manufacturing-improves-again-according-to-the-jpmorgan-global-pmi-report/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 16:12:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[//abr /Further falls;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Americas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canon PowerShot S400 / IXUS 400 Digital Camera;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CFLP;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Denmark]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eurozone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federation of Logistics;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gemma Wallace;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global economy matters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greece]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gross Domestic Product]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungarian Association for Logistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Institute For Supply Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:br /br;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ireland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[JP-Morgan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lehman Brothers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Markit Greece;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Norbert Ore;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PMI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[poor domestic infrastructure;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Purchasing and Inventory;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samsung 400PX 40 in. HDTV-Ready LCD TV;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Singapore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[steel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swedbank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sweden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Switzerland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tatra;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the  monthly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Nation;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Netherlands]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Truck maker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VTB Capital;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Western Europe]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-2597908422211196839</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Global factory activity continued to improve in May amid growing optimism that the worst of the recession may be over. Output contracted at a much less ferociously than at the start of the year in one economy after another, and this month three countries actually registered output growth  - India, China and Turkey. The JP Morgan global manufacturing index (PMI) rose to 45.3 in May from 41.8 in April, the highest level in nine months, although still a long way below the 50.0 mark dividing growth from contraction. The component indexes for output and new orders were both running at much higher levels than in April.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQ2GPxC3EI/AAAAAAAAOM0/C1ZwuHwfdgk/s1600-h/jpmorgan+global%C3%A7.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 228px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342454538907606082" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQ2GPxC3EI/AAAAAAAAOM0/C1ZwuHwfdgk/s400/jpmorgan+global%C3%A7.png" //abr /br /However, the headline PMI is still at a very low level by historic standards, and well below one which would be consistent with outright recovery. On the other hand, it is clear that the easing of the worldwide manufacturing recession which we have been seeing over the past two months has continued and has been substantial. The month-on-month gains in the PMI, output and new orders indexes in April and May are the greatest in the series history (which is not that surprising follow a series of record falls). All of the national indexes for these variables rose during the latest survey period.br /br /Among the countries surveyed (see foot of post for details) only India, China and Turkey reported increased production. Japan (slowest for 13 months), the United States (weakest fall in current nine-month downturn) and the United Kingdom (slowest drop in a year) saw substantial easings in their respective rates of contraction. Although the Eurozone vastly underperformed relative to the global average, its output index rose to the greatest extent in survey history and to an eight-month high.br /br /strongNew orders/strong contracted for the 14th month running in May, the longest period of contraction in the survey history. However, the Global Manufacturing New Orders Index climbed to 48.6, its highest level in a year. The rate of decline in global trade slowed sharply to its weakest since last September. China and India reported increases in total new orders for the second successive months in May. The U.S. and Turkey were the only other nations covered by the global survey to report gains, with new business rising for the first time in one-and-a-half years in the U.S. and for 17 months in Turkey.br /br /br /Although May data pointed to strongsubstantial jobs losses/strong, the rate of decline eased to a six-month low. Employment has now fallen for 14 successive months. Almost all of the nations covered reported lower staffing levels, the exceptions being India (slight gain) and China (no change). Among the other countries, only the U.S. and Austria failed to report slower rates of decline. The pace of job cutting eased to five, six and seven-month lows in the Eurozone, Japan and the U.K., respectively.br /br /At 40.8 in May, the Global Manufacturing Input Prices Index posted its highest reading since October 2008 but remained below the neutral 50.0 mark for the eighth month running. Only India and Russia saw increases in costs. The rate of decline eased sharply in the U.S.br /br /What follows is a very extensive country-by-country, blow-by-blow account assembled from across the national reports. It is probably too dense to read at one sitting, but you can simply pick and tick the regions and the countries that interest you, as I do think the monthly manufacturing PMIs give a reasonable picture of what is actually going on, as opposed to what some would like to believe is going on.br /br /strongEurope/strongbr /br /br /strongSweden/strong /pbr /br /pSweden's seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index rose to 43.7 in May, climbing for the fifth consecutive month, according to the reprot from the survey sponsors Silf and Swedbank.br /The May result compared with a 38.8 reading in April and was considerably above consensus expectations for a 40.2 result. /pbr /br /pbr //pbr /br /pa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQzIDhjyeI/AAAAAAAAOMk/Z6ai5thlnyQ/s1600-h/sweden.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 237px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342451271446284770" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQzIDhjyeI/AAAAAAAAOMk/Z6ai5thlnyQ/s400/sweden.png" //abr /br /br /strongEurozone/strongbr /br /The Markit Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI posted 40.7 in May, up from 36.8 in April and above the earlier flash reading of 40.5. The rise of 3.9 points in the PMI was the largest seen since the survey began in June 1997 and raised the index further above February’s record low to hit a seven-month high. However, the PMI extended its run below the no-change mark of 50.0 into a 12th successive month, a sequence unprecedented in the series history.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQnqmuEm5I/AAAAAAAAOL0/t8WzmQ0GPGg/s1600-h/eurozone.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 229px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342438670870027154" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQnqmuEm5I/AAAAAAAAOL0/t8WzmQ0GPGg/s400/eurozone.png" //abr /br /br /National PMIs stayed firmly in recession territory across all of the member states covered by the survey. However, the indexes for Germany, Italy and Spain all rose by the largest amount in their respective series histories. Greece posted the highest reading overall.br /br /br /The rise in the PMI was driven by a record easing in the rate of contraction of manufacturing output, which fell at the weakest pace since last September and slower than indicated by the flash estimate. Rates of contraction eased most sharply in Germany, Italy and Greece (which also posted the slowest decline overall). The consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors all saw rates of output contraction ease during the month.br /br /br /The rate of decline in new orders was the weakest since August 2008 and slower than the earlier flash estimate. All countries covered by the survey saw a shallower rate of retrenchment of new orders. Order flows to investment goods producers were especially weak, although the rate of decline in this sector was much slower than in recent months. Consumer goods was the only sector to report a faster rate of reduction in new work than one month ago.br /br /br /May data pointed to a 12th successive monthly decline in manufacturing employment. The rate of job cutting was much slower than in April, but slightly faster than the flash estimate. All of the countries covered by the survey reported marked reductions in employment, but only Austria saw staffing levels drop at a faster pace than in April. Intermediate and capital goods producers continued to report the greatest decreases in staffing levels.br /br /br /Export order volumes continued to fall in May, with producers of capital goods hit especially hard. However, the overall rate of decline eased to its slowest since last September and was less steep than that signaled by the flash estimate. Rates of decline eased across all of the member states covered by the survey, with the most noticeable slowdowns signaled for Germany, Greece and the Netherlands.br /br /br /Input costs fell for the seventh month running, albeit at the second slowest pace during that period and to a lesser extent than signaled by the flash estimate. Cost deflation eased in all of the nations covered. The sharpest decrease in costs was reported by France and the weakest by Greece.br /br /br /Although the rate of decline in average output prices eased to a four-month low, it remained severe and was slightly faster than the earlier flash estimate. Falling output prices were blamed on weak demand and strong competition. Of particular note, Germany reported a record drop in prices charged. May data pointed to survey record reductions in stocks of both raw materials and finished goods. Germany reported the greatest depletion in both cases, and the stock reduction was again most pronounced in the capital goods sector. Buying activity was cut back further, although the rate of decline in quantities of purchases eased for the third successive month.br /br /br /Looking ahead, the combination of record reductions in inventories and a slower rate of decline of new orders meant the orders-to-inventory ratio – which tends to lead the production cycle – rose to an 18-month high in May (and above that calculated based on flash estimates).br /br /br /br /strongGermany/strongbr /br /Germany's manufacturing PMI rose to 39.6 in May. That compared with 35.4 in April and was stronger than the 39.1 economists had expected. The improvement mainly reflected slower falls in output, new orders and employment than in April. Although the PMI hit a seven-month high, the index was still well below the neutral 50.0 mark. Deteriorating operating conditions have now been recorded for 10 months running, the longest period since 2002-2003.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQpoGO9usI/AAAAAAAAOL8/RPp_zohsftw/s1600-h/germany+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 213px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342440826813135554" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQpoGO9usI/AAAAAAAAOL8/RPp_zohsftw/s400/germany+PMI.png" //abr /May data signaled a sharp easing of the rate of decline in manufacturing output. Reduced rates of contraction have been recorded in each month since January’s survey record fall. Anecdotal evidence suggested that a more moderate drop in new orders supported production levels in May. The seasonally adjusted index measuring new order volumes recorded one of its largest ever one-month gains in May, to signal that new work contracted at a much slower rate than in April.br /br /br /Manufacturers noted that price discounting and improved sentiment about the economic outlook had supported client demand. New export orders also declined at a slower pace, with the rate of reduction the least marked since September 2008.br /br /br /A steep rate of job shedding persisted in May as firms continued to implement staff restructuring in response to excess capacity at their plants. Reports from panelists also pointed to a general aversion to hiring in May, leading to delays in the replacement of departing staff. Employment levels have now fallen for eight months running, but the rate of decline eased slightly since April’s survey record.br /br /br /Substantial destocking continued in May as firms adjusted to lower demand and sought to cut costs through improved stock management. Both stocks of purchases and finished goods inventories declined at their fastest rates since the survey began in April 1996.br /br /br /Average cost burdens dropped sharply in the latest survey period, albeit at the least marked rate since last November. This led to another marked drop in factory gate prices, with the rate of decline hitting a new survey record in May.br /br /br /strongFrance/strongbr /br /France's headline manufacturing PMI climbed to a nine-month high of 43.3, from 40.1 in April. The PMI was boosted by slower falls in output, new orders, employment and stocks of purchases, while suppliers’ delivery times also exerted a weaker negative influence.br /br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQqXu1CPEI/AAAAAAAAOME/VgELe4vDd78/s1600-h/france+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 213px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342441645164084290" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQqXu1CPEI/AAAAAAAAOME/VgELe4vDd78/s400/france+PMI.png" //a Manufacturing production fell for a 12th successive month in May. Although still sharp, the rate of decline eased further from February’s series record and was the least marked since last August. The weaker drop in output mirrored a similar easing in the rate of contraction of new orders. The latest decline in new work was the slowest in 11 months, amid reports of a stabilization in demand following the severe weakening seen in the second half of 2008 as the financial crisis worsened. /pbr /br /pData suggested that demand had firmed from both domestic and foreign clients, as the latest decrease in export orders was the smallest for eight months. In a further sign of recovering demand, manufacturers’ stocks of finished goods declined at the fastest pace in the survey history in May. It was the seventh fall in successive months, and suggests that the inventory cycle may soon reach a point at which production will need to be stepped up in order to rebuild depleted stocks. Reflecting the smaller fall in new orders, backlogs of work decreased at a weaker pace in May. The latest drop in outstanding business was the least marked in eight months. /pbr /br /pEmployment also declined at a slower (albeit still marked) rate, with the pace of job shedding easing to a seven-month low. Firms’ purchasing activity contracted at a milder rate in May, mirroring the trend in output. That said, the decline in input buying was still substantial and contributed to another marked fall in stocks of purchases. /pbr /br /pA number of panelists linked lower preproduction inventories to efforts to improve cash flow. Lower demand for raw materials allowed suppliers to deliver purchased items faster on average in May. Consequently, lead times shortened for a ninth consecutive month. Weak demand also led a number of vendors to offer discounts and this, combined with lower prices for a number of commodities on global exchanges, resulted in a further steep reduction in average purchasing costs. Output prices decreased in May as manufacturers cut their tariffs in response to intensifying competition. The rate of decline remained sharp, despite easing to a four-month low.br /br /br /strongItaly/strongbr /br /Operating conditions in the Italian manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate at a significant pace in May. Nonetheless, rates of decline registered for production, new orders and employment all eased, while stocks of postproduction goods fell for a second successive month. The headline Markit/ADACI manufacturing PMI rose from 37.2 in April to 41.1 in May. While this represented the greatest month-on-month gain in the history of the series, the index continued to register a considerable monthly deterioration of conditions and the level remained well below that recorded before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September.br //pbr /br /pa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQrEqrUXzI/AAAAAAAAOMM/dWjRVVTLRMg/s1600-h/italy+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 213px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342442417143701298" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQrEqrUXzI/AAAAAAAAOMM/dWjRVVTLRMg/s400/italy+PMI.png" //abr /Further falls in new business continued to suppress production volumes during May. Nonetheless, activity at manufacturing plants fell at the weakest pace since September 2008. Anecdotal evidence suggested that weak demand from both foreign and domestic clients (as a consequence of the poor economic climate) resulted in the latest decline in new order books. Even so, the deterioration of overall demand was the weakest in eight months. Italian manufacturers continued to trim staffing levels during the latest survey period. However, mirroring the trend in workloads, the rate of job shedding eased from April. Redundancies and the non-replacement of leavers were cited as methods of workforce streamlining. /pbr /br /pDestocking remained evident during the latest survey period. Post-production inventories fell for the second straight month during May, although the rate of decline was fractionally weaker than seen in the previous survey period. Average prices paid for inputs fell for the seventh month in a row during May. Nevertheless, the rate of decline was the weakest in the current period of falling costs. Survey respondents indicated that lower purchasing activity had intensified competitive pressures at suppliers – resulting in lower list prices. Firms also noted that the strong performance of the euro (notably against the U.S. dollar) had kept average costs down. /pbr /br /pSavings from lower input prices were swiftly passed on to clients in the form of lower factory gate prices during May. Panel members reported that the economic downturn had markedly increased competition, forcing manufacturers to reduce charges. Despite lower costs, marked falls in workloads resulted in a further drop in firms’ purchase volumes during May. Subsequently, suppliers’ delivery times shortened further and pre-production inventories fell at the fastest pace in the history of the survey.br /br /strongSpain/strongbr //pbr /br /pGermany's manufacturing PMI rose again in May, hitting 39.8. That compared with 34.6 in April. The improvement mainly reflected slower falls in output, new orders and employment than in April. Although the PMI hit a nine-month high, the index was still well below the neutral 50.0 mark. Deteriorating operating conditions have now been recorded for 17 months running.br /br /br /May data signaled a sharp easing of the rate of decline in manufacturing output. Reduced rates of contraction have been recorded in each month since December’s survey record fall. The seasonally adjusted index measuring new order volumes recorded one of its largest ever one-month gains in May, to signal that new work contracted at a much slower rate than in April. /pbr /pa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQyWJBrM8I/AAAAAAAAOMc/VG5p610pMF4/s1600-h/spain+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 221px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342450413929706434" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQyWJBrM8I/AAAAAAAAOMc/VG5p610pMF4/s400/spain+PMI.png" //abr /br /br /strongGreece/strongbr /br /The May manufacturing PMI eased back sharply, hitting the slowest contraction in seven months due to improvements in the generall outlook. The Markit Greece Manufacturing PMI index showed that the rate of contraction in production, new orders and employment weakened.br //pbr /pThe headline PMI was the highest since last October, rising to 46.1, sharply up from the 40.9 registered in April.br /br //pbr /pa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQm_TIPNdI/AAAAAAAAOLs/Ic-PcBkpeX4/s1600-h/greece+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 229px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342437926876689874" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQm_TIPNdI/AAAAAAAAOLs/Ic-PcBkpeX4/s400/greece+PMI.png" //abr /The decline in incoming new orders fell back slightly in May, and was the weakest recorded during the current recession. However, those surveyed reported that difficult operating conditions persist, due to the weakening in demand both domestically and in foreign markets.br /br /Employment, purchasing activity and stock levels all fell significantly, but at a slower rate than in April.br /br /br /strongEastern Europe/strongbr /br /strongRussia/strongbr /br /The May survey of Russian manufacturing business conditions from VTB Capital provided further evidence that the second quarter contraction will be much slower than the one registered in the first three months of 2009. The headline seasonally adjusted Russian Manufacturing PMI has been nudging up continuously from December’s record low of 33.8, and stood at a seven-month high of 45.3 in May. The month-on-month gains in the PMI over the past three months have averaged 1.6, following a record 6.2 rebound in February.br /br /br /Although the rate of decline in manufacturing slowed further in May, the sector is still experiencing a longer and more pronounced contraction than that seen during the financial crisis of 1998. At that time the PMI was in negative territory for seven successive months in negative territory. The current run now extends to 10 months – and at a more substantial average pace of contraction.br /br /br /Underpinning the ongoing contraction in output was a sustained fall in incoming new work in May. Anecdotal evidence linked lower receipts of new business to a combination of subdued underlying demand and difficulties experienced by clients in securing sufficient credit. However, the rate of decline was the slowest in the current eight-month sequence. The pace of contraction in new export orders also slowed in May. Excess capacity in manufacturing remained in evidence in May, as outstanding business declined further. That said, the rate of reduction was the slowest since April 2008.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQ0tx127QI/AAAAAAAAOMs/yvTfoiFrwGo/s1600-h/russia+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 244px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342453019046243586" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQ0tx127QI/AAAAAAAAOMs/yvTfoiFrwGo/s400/russia+PMI.png" //abr /br /br /strongPoland/strongbr /br /The fall in manufacturing in two of the EU's largest East European economies slowed in May. Despite a certain stabilisation in credit markets and the appearance of some small 'green shoots', the EU's eastern front is still beset by a sharp industrial contraction, due to increasing export dependence accompanied by a collapse in euro zone demand. There is some evidence that improving sentiment in western Europe have produced slightly brighter expectations for industrial performance, particularly in Poland, where exports account for only about 45 percent of the economy, versus around 70 percent for the Czech Republic.br /br /The Polish manufacturing PMI edged up to 42.55, from 42.1 in April, signalling the weakest pace of decline since October.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQjX0IATxI/AAAAAAAAOLk/_PUQnd1gZC4/s1600-h/poland+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 228px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342433950004432658" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQjX0IATxI/AAAAAAAAOLk/_PUQnd1gZC4/s400/poland+PMI.png" //abr /br /br /strongThe Czech Republic/strongbr /br /Czech PMI also crept upwards - to a seven-month high of 40.5, from 38.6 in April. The Czech manufacturing sector continues to experience a sharp contraction mid-way through Q2, although the worst of the industrial downturn may now passed. The PMI data also support the view that Poland is at this point weathering the crisis better than more export-reliant neighbours such like the Czech Republic.br /br /However, the worse-than-expected growth and industry data released last month, mean that these very slight upticks do not give much hope for a rapid, robust recovery, even in Poland which was one of the few countries to actually show year on year growth in the first quarter (0.8 percent) although the economy almost certainly contracted on a seasonally adjusted basis when compared with the last three months of 2008.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQi84Mz9eI/AAAAAAAAOLc/HYC9DUB2_r8/s1600-h/czech+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 227px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342433487241868770" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQi84Mz9eI/AAAAAAAAOLc/HYC9DUB2_r8/s400/czech+PMI.png" //abr /Data released at the end of last week showed Czech industrial output fell by 23 percent in April, returning to a near record pace of decline after a brief respite in March. That followed a worse-than-expected year on year fall in gross domestic product of 3.4 percent in the first quarter.br /br /Economists have also warned that rising job cuts at firms, a contraction of investment, rising bankruptcies, and very weak credit growth were also taking a toll on the economy, preventing an early rebound from the crisis. Indeed Czech media reported only last Monday that truck maker Tatra will cut 450 of its 2,750 workerforce. Thus while expectations are improving significantly actual operating conditions are not.br /br /br /strongHungary/strongbr /br /Hungarian manufacturing contracted for a record eighth consecutive month in May as the economic recession deepened. The manufacturing PMI came in at 45.3 in May - up from a revised 40.6 in April, according to Halpim - the Hungarian Association for Logistics, Purchasing and Inventory. This is the second month in which the contraction has eased.br /br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiTdY372DCI/AAAAAAAAONc/bCRfKLSDCqg/s1600-h/hungary+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 229px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342638477369805858" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiTdY372DCI/AAAAAAAAONc/bCRfKLSDCqg/s400/hungary+PMI.png" //abr /br /Hungary’s industrial production decline slowed in March, the latest month for which data is available, as the global economy showed signs of recovery, helping demand for exports. Output fell a workday-adjusted 19.6 percent from a year earlier after an annual 25.2 percent decrease in February.br /br /strongTurkey/strongbr /br /br /Turkish stocks hit an 8-month-high on Monday, rising along with other global bourses on encouraging data from China, and on the increasing evidence of green shoots at home. Turkey's manufacturing PMI rose in May to 51 from 44 in April, according to the Markit manufacturing PMI survey. A whisk above the 50 dividing line, but enough to put Turkey - along with India and China - in the very illustrious group of economies whose industrial sectors are now expanding.br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQgJmV6QlI/AAAAAAAAOLU/2QAxC3Z5UyI/s1600-h/turkey+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 224px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342430407251608146" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQgJmV6QlI/AAAAAAAAOLU/2QAxC3Z5UyI/s400/turkey+PMI.png" //abr /br /strongAsia/strongbr /br /strongJapan/strongbr /br /br /The recent improvement in Japan's industrial activity appears to have continued in May according to the latest reading from the Nomura PMI survey, since while the survey found that activity in the Japanese manufacturing sector fell for the fifteenth successive month, the drop in output was the smallest seen in just over a year. I wouldn't attach too much importance to the discrepancy between the PMI survey and the actual output outcome (production was up in April over may according to Minstry data) at this point, since the survey methodology (which is normally pretty reliable) is probably struggling a little to handle the severity of the shock in the manufacturing sector and calibrate results. The general direction of an easing in the annual rate of contraction is in harmony on both readouts.br /br /In fact, the seasonally adjusted headline Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose sharply in May to 46.6, from 41.4 in April, pointing to the slowest deterioration in operating conditions for nine months.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh-tCoZ4bSI/AAAAAAAAOJc/KKfpB6foti0/s1600-h/japan+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 220px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5341177943802015010" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sh-tCoZ4bSI/AAAAAAAAOJc/KKfpB6foti0/s400/japan+PMI.png" //abr /br /May’s survey also showed that incoming new orders received by Japanese manufacturers fell for the fifteenth month running. But again the rate of decline continued to ease from December’s record drop to the smallest contraction in the weakest in the current sequence. While foreign order levels continued to fall, they did so at a much slower rate as improved orders from China continuing demand weakness in other regions (such as the US and Europe). May’s survey pointed to a sixth successive monthly decline in the prices charged by Japanese manufacturers for finished goods.br //pbr /pAlthough still sharp, the latest drop in output charges was the weakest since last December. Strong competitive pressures and falling raw material prices were cited as key factors undermining manufacturers’ pricing power in May. Average cost burdens faced by Japanese manufacturers fell for the sixth month running in May. Despite remaining steep, the rate of decline eased to its weakest for four months. Lower raw material prices were reported to have depressed costs during the month, with steel frequently mentioned by panellists. Levels of business outstanding fell again in May, extending the current period of decline to sixteen consecutive months. Despite slowing to its weakest since last August, the rate of backlog clearance was still steep in the May survey period. Evidence provided by the survey panel linked the latest decline in work-in-hand to spare capacity resulting from falling workloads.br /br /The PMI report also showed that Japanese manufacturers reduced their workforces for the tenth straight month in May. The rate of job shedding remained sharp, despite easing to its weakest for six months. Of those firms that reported a decline in employment, the majority attributed this to the non-renewal of temporary contracts and lower output requirements.br /br /br /strongChina/strongbr /br /The CLSA China Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.2 in May from 50.1 in April, making May the second consecutive month the CLSA PMI was above 50.0, after eight months of being below the critical line. The rate of destocking increased in May, which was encouraging given there is some anecdotal evidence that production may be running ahead of orders. On aggregate the reverse seems to be true.  The CLSA China PMI is compiled by U.K.-based research firm Markit Economics. The export order index increased to 50.1, the first expansion in 11 months. The output index fell to 56.9 from 57.4 and the new order index dropped to 56.2 from 56.6.br /br //ppa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQU2hoehUI/AAAAAAAAOKs/lfQ_1wuvKoc/s1600-h/china+pmi+one.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 239px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342417984941884738" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQU2hoehUI/AAAAAAAAOKs/lfQ_1wuvKoc/s400/china+pmi+one.png" //abr /br /In fact in China there are two indexes, a fact which has lead to some controversy. The second index produced by the government-backed Federation of Logistics amp; Purchasing has repeatedly shown slightly higher readings, a feature which may be the result of giving a slightly larger weighting to the state enterprises, which are more oriented towards the domestic market. The May PMI saw the CFLP benchmark reading fall to 53.1 in May from 53.5 in April. This was the third consecutive month this index has held above 50.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQWFMtZoqI/AAAAAAAAOK0/tNa9uJW2QrI/s1600-h/china+PMI+two.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 239px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342419336535057058" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQWFMtZoqI/AAAAAAAAOK0/tNa9uJW2QrI/s400/china+PMI+two.png" //a So despite a good deal of controversy about what exactly is happening in China, and how sustainable what is happening actually is, it does seem that, for whatever reason, manufacturing industry is expanding at this point.br /br /strongIndia/strongbr /br /br /Conditions in India's manufacturing sector improved again in May, building on growth already seen in April. Most notably, the domestic market was the main driver of expansion, as foreign demand for Indian manufactures remained weak. A second straight month of output and new order growth led companies to hold off from further workforce rationalization. However, competitive pressures continued to restrain the pricing power of manufacturers. Despite accelerated input price inflation, firms cut their factory gate prices for the seventh month running.br /br /br /The headline Markit Purchasing Managers’ PMI rose for the fifth successive month in May (and for the second month of expansion) to 55.7. This was the highest reading since last September and indicated a marked improvement in the health of India’s manufacturing industry.br /br /br /With incoming new work and production rising since April, as well as an accumulation of backlogs, Indian manufacturers generally maintained their staffing numbers. Marginal growth in May ended a five-month period of retrenchment.br /br /Purchasing costs in India’s manufacturing sector rose for the second consecutive month, and at an accelerated pace in May. This was commonly linked to higher demand for raw materials. However, strong competition prevented firms from passing on their greater cost burdens to customers. Charges were reduced further, albeit at the weakest rate in the current seven-month period of decline.  Commenting on the latest survey findings, Gemma Wallace, economist at Markit, said: “Rising for a second straight month in May, the headline PMI indicates that India’s manufacturing economy is gaining strength, after a five-month period of weakness. Data show that the sector is currently being carried by robust domestic demand, as export sales continued to fall. Nevertheless, this alone was enough to boost manufacturers’ confidence; inventories were built up for the second month running, whilst workers were hired for the first time since last October. There is also evidence of mounting inflationary pressures within the sector. Demand for raw materials contributed to an increase in input costs over the month, although inflation also reflected speculation on commodities markets. While intense competition remained a bind on manufacturers’ pricing power in May, the latest cut in charges was only fractional. If competitive pressures are mitigated by further improvements in demand going forward, it will most likely result in output prices rising.”br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQXmyz_VOI/AAAAAAAAOK8/GJkP8mSXzHA/s1600-h/india+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 225px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342421013210551522" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQXmyz_VOI/AAAAAAAAOK8/GJkP8mSXzHA/s400/india+PMI.png" //abr /br /br /strongAmericas/strongbr /br /strongUnited States/strongbr /br /Economic activity in the United States manufacturing sector failed to grow in May for the 16th consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the first time following seven months of decline, say the nation's supply executives in the Institute for Supply Management's latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.  According to Norbert Ore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:br /br /"While employment and inventories continue to decline at a rapid rate and the sector continued to contract during the month, there are signs of improvement.....May is the first month of growth in the New Orders Index since November 2007, with nine of 18 industries reporting growth. New orders are considered a leading indicator, and the index has risen rapidly after bottoming at 23.1 percent in December 2008. Also, the Customers' Inventories Index remained below 50 percent for the second consecutive month, offering encouragement that supply chains are starting to free themselves of excess inventories as nine industries report their customers' inventories as 'too low'. The prices that manufacturers pay for raw materials and services continued to decline, but at a slower rate than in April."br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQcXiqyDII/AAAAAAAAOLM/AVmEfiJHu7E/s1600-h/usa+pmi.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 227px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342426248737066114" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQcXiqyDII/AAAAAAAAOLM/AVmEfiJHu7E/s400/usa+pmi.png" //abr /br /strongBrazil/strongbr /br /Latest survey findings indicated that Brazil’s manufacturing economy shrank yet again in May, with indices tracking trends in new orders, production, employment, backlogs and inventories still stuck in negative territory. However, data also showed that contractions in all of these variables, except finished goods stocks, slowed considerably. The monthly drop in output was especially small. The seasonally adjusted Banco Santander PMI) climbed further in May to its highest level in the current eight-month period of contraction. At 47.8, up from 44.8 in the previous month, the index suggested a much more moderate deterioration in operating conditions.  Again, data indicated that the improvement predominantly stemmed from the domestic market, as new export sales continued to fall steeply.br /br /br /Data for input costs, output prices and suppliers’ delivery times pointed toward a further steep drop in price pressures across Brazil’s manufacturing economy in May. Falling demand for raw materials left vendors with spare capacity. Consequently, lead times for input deliveries shortened for the seventh month running (although the improvement was restrained by poor domestic infrastructure).br /br /Competition among suppliers to secure new contracts provided manufacturers with greater scope for price negotiations. Alongside cheaper imports, resulting from a weakened U.S. dollar, pressure on vendors to reduce their prices contributed to another sharp decrease in average purchasing costs. Moreover, the rate of decline accelerated slightly to a new series record. Lower cost burdens were reflected in Brazilian manufacturers’ charges. Firms decreased their tariffs in order to attract more custom.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQZt2zIObI/AAAAAAAAOLE/E4SA2KIuR-c/s1600-h/brazil+PMI.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 229px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342423333563021746" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SiQZt2zIObI/AAAAAAAAOLE/E4SA2KIuR-c/s400/brazil+PMI.png" //a/pbr /br /strongCoverage Of The JP Morgan Report/strongbr /br /The Global Report on Manufacturing is compiled by Markit Economics based on the results of surveys covering over 7,500 purchasing executives in 26 countries. Together these countries account for an estimated 83% of global manufacturing output. Questions are asked about real events and are not opinion based. Data are presented in the form of diffusion indices, where an index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in the variable since the previous month and below 50.0 a decrease.br /br /The following countries are included in the report:br /br /United States, Eurozone, Japan, Germany, China, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, India, Australia, Netherlands, Russia, Switzerland, Turkey, Austria, Poland, Denmark, South Africa, Greece, Israel, Ireland, Singapore, Czech Republic, New Zealand, Hungarydiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='//blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-2597908422211196839?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/may-manufacturing-improves-again-according-to-the-jpmorgan-global-pmi-report/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Zeal for the Deal</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/zeal-for-the-deal-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/zeal-for-the-deal-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2009 14:55:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clinton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Department of Defense]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dmitry Rogozin;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Bolton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Kerry;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North Atlantic Treaty Organization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Goble;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ronald Reagan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the New York Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Nations]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.18787</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Back in the Bush II heydays, I always thought of Russia's Ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, as a tongue-in-cheek answer to the appointment of John Bolton to the United Nations (minus, of course, the overt racism of the former).&#160; Among...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/zeal-for-the-deal-2/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Zeal for the Deal</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/zeal-for-the-deal/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/zeal-for-the-deal/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2009 14:55:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clinton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Department of Defense]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dmitry Rogozin;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Bolton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Kerry;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[North Atlantic Treaty Organization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Goble;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ronald Reagan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the New York Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Nations]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.18787</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Back in the Bush II heydays, I always thought of Russia's Ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, as a tongue-in-cheek answer to the appointment of John Bolton to the United Nations (minus, of course, the overt racism of the former).&#160; Among...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/zeal-for-the-deal/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Saving Face on the Missile Shield</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/saving-face-on-the-missile-shield/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/saving-face-on-the-missile-shield/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 May 2009 15:09:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brussels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EastWest Institute;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Islamic Republic of Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[missile technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-existent anti-ballistic missile technology;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.18720</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Washington's plans to install non-existent anti-ballistic missile technology into Poland and the Czech Republic in order to defend against non-existent Iranian missile technology has long been a sore point in the U.S.-Russia relationship.&#160; As pointless as proposal has been, so...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/saving-face-on-the-missile-shield/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (May 11 – 17, 2009)</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/commodities/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-may-11-%e2%80%93-17-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/commodities/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-may-11-%e2%80%93-17-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 May 2009 08:32:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Prieur du Plessis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Hewison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank Of Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank repossessions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank reserves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barry Ritholtz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bermuda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cape Town]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Whalen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cyprus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[donald coxe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dow 30]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dow Jones US Regional Banks;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ed Easterling;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elroy Dimson;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[emerginvest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Central Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Open Market Committee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gary Shilling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[George Soros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Indonesia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ino.com]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investment postcards]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Montier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jean Claude Trichet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeffrey Nichols]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Mauldin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Nyaradi;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KBW Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KBW Regional Bank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lacy Hunt;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London Business School;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luxembourg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marc Faber]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michigan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Morgan Stanley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSCI Chile;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSCI Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSCI World]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Namibia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nasdaq 100]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nasdaq Composite]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Northern Trust]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Krugman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Printing Presses]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rebecca Wilder;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retail]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Retail Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[richard russell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell 2000]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[S]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Serbia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Big Picture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Financial Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tom Toles;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Us Treasury]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vietnam]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wachovia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall  Street Journal Online]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street Journal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington Post]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Xlp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yahoo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[yellow metal]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/05/17/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-may-11-%e2%80%93-17-2009/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A long-awaited reversal in the monumental global stock market rally since early March finally arrived last week. “Less bad” economic reports provided investors with little comfort, sparking a reassessment of their risk appetite and leading to profit-taking on most bourses. On the other hand, safe-haven assets attracted buying. Read all about this and the implications for financial markets in the weekly “Words from the Wise” review.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/commodities/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-may-11-%e2%80%93-17-2009/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Global Manufacturing Contraction Stabilises In April</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/the-global-manufacturing-contraction-stabilises-in-april/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/the-global-manufacturing-contraction-stabilises-in-april/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2009 17:09:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Abn Amro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ABN AMRO Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[by-product]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canon PowerShot S400 / IXUS 400 Digital Camera;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China Federation of Logistics;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CLSA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CNY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edward Hugh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[european commission]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gaurav Kapur;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gdp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greece]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungarian association]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungarian government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jpmorgan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Markit Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Norbert J. Ore;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PMI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russian administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samsung 400PX 40 in. HDTV-Ready LCD TV;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SKF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Africa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swedbank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sweden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Switzerland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Moore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US Institute for Supply Management;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Volvo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VTB Capital;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-9074059723132222334</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /The global manufacturing recession continued in April, with rates of contraction for output, new orders and employment all showing what are effectively sharp contractions by historical standards. The rates of contraction however moderated almost universally, and this is now the fourth month where this moderation has been evident. Thus, while the contraction is far from over, it is reasonable to say the it has stabilised, and the big issue is at what rate it will hold in the months to come. The initial shock has now been absorbed, but that is a far cry from saying that we already have the worst behind us. The general deterioration in employment conditions raises the concern that as the impact of the government stimulus "shocks" in their turn wane, and as national banking systems come under the impact of the additional loan defaults the growing unemployment and falling property values will cause, then we may see a series of second round effects, not as severe as the initial "hit" last October, but certainly not to something to be taken lightly or "factored out of the picture" at this point.br /br /strongSharp Rise In the Headline Global PMIbr //strongbr /The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) - which is based on surveys covering over 7,500 purchasing executives in 26 countries which between them account for an estimated 83% of global manufacturing output - posted a reading of 41.8 in April, thus coming in well below the critical 50 neutral mark separating expansion from contraction for the 11th successive month. In rising from the 37.3 level shown in March, the PMI managed to post its largest month-on-month improvement in the series history attaining in the process a seven-month high. The sharpest point in the contraction was last December, when the indicator hit the all time series low of 33.7.br /br /br /br /br /br /br /pa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf8RBx56TtI/AAAAAAAANrU/kPTWvugJHUs/s1600-h/global+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331999206103731922" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf8RBx56TtI/AAAAAAAANrU/kPTWvugJHUs/s400/global+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /The sub-indexes which track output, new orders, new export orders and employment all posted the strongest upward movements in their respective series histories, but still all remained firmly below the neutral 50.0 mark. The rates of contraction for output and new export orders eased to seven-month lows, and total new orders dropped at the weakest pace since August 2008.br /br /The picture was a mixed one, and emerging economies generally fared rather better than developed countries. This was especially the case in China and India, the only two countries covered by the survey to actually to report increases either for output or new orders. Rates of contraction in output eased to a seven-month low in the United States and to the weakest since last October in the euro area. Output and new orders in Spain and Japan continued to fall significantly faster than the global average, but even in these cases the contraction rate improved markedly over earlier rock bottom lows.br /br /Substantial manufacturing job losses continued in April, even if the rate of decline eased to a five-month low. Germany, Switzerland, Australia and South Africa posted series record reductions in employment. China was the only nation to report an increase in staffing levels, and India only reported slight reductions. The rate of job cutting in the U.S. slowed to its weakest since last September, but the reduction in the Eurozone was only slightly better than the series record set in March.br /br /The Global Manufacturing Input Prices Index continued to show significant price decreases, although the reading of 35.5 was a five-month high. Still this again was a historically low reading, and, according to JPMorgan, apart from India and South Africa all of the countries for which data were available reported lower purchasing costs, with rates of decline faster than the global average in the both the U.S. and the Eurozone, giving an indication of just how extensive deflationary pressure is at this point.br /br /br /strongEurope/strongbr /br /br /strongSweden/strongbr /br /Sweden's seasonally adjusted PMI rose to 38.8 in April from 36.7 in March, according to the latest survey from Swedbank and Silf, more or less in line with economists expectations.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7cevEld-I/AAAAAAAANrM/gE5FvnX_5OI/s1600-h/sweden+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331941429443131362" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7cevEld-I/AAAAAAAANrM/gE5FvnX_5OI/s400/sweden+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /The PMI was thus well below the threshold 50 reading for the tenth consecutive month, although April was the fourth consecutive month when the rate of contraction eased. Of particular interest is the fact that the employment index worsened to 28.3 from 31.1, indicating that Swedish manufacturing was shedding jobs at a faster and certainly preoccupying rate. New orders were the single biggest contributor to the rise the overall index, and the sub-index for export orders alone rose to 45.3 points in April from 39.7 March, a feature which was doubtless a by-product of the 15% decline we have seen in the value of the Krona vis a vis the euro since last summer. Sweden's export-dependent economy is facing its worst recession since the 1940s with the global downturn hitting demand for products of key manufacturers like Volvo and SKF. The contraction is easing, but still we are far from having an end in sight, nor will we see one till demand resurfaces in some of the customer economies.br /br /br /br /strongEurozone/strongbr /br /The pace of the slowdown in Eurozone manufacturing activity generally slowed in April, and the PMI rose to a six-month high of 36.8 from 33.9 in March.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7X9dl5l7I/AAAAAAAANqk/o0NjaOwWR8I/s1600-h/eurozone+manufacturing+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331936459768829874" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7X9dl5l7I/AAAAAAAANqk/o0NjaOwWR8I/s400/eurozone+manufacturing+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /strongSpain/strongbr /br /The rate of decline in Spanish manufacturing slowed again in April (for the fourth consecutive month), and April's PMI rose to 34.6 from 32.9 in March. This is now significantly up from December's record low of 28.5, but the contraction remained very strong, and this was still one of the lowest readings globally.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7ZEa5IBiI/AAAAAAAANqs/7xedcifOiV0/s1600-h/spain+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331937678814873122" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 217px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7ZEa5IBiI/AAAAAAAANqs/7xedcifOiV0/s400/spain+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /The pace of deterioration eased in output, new orders and employment, though stocks of purchases and finished goods hit series lows. Survey responses suggested the rate of decline in the badly hit jobs market had eased slightly from earlier falls, but the reading still remained well below growth levels, and Spain's economy continues to bleed jobs, adding to levels of employment which the latest labour force survey data suggests has now risen above 4 million (or 17.3% of the economically active population). Staffing levels have declined every month since September 2007, according to survey records.br /br /br /strongItaly/strongbr /br /br /Italy's manufacturing business shrank at its slowest rate for six months in April, with the latest Markit/ADACI survey producing a headline PMI reading of 37.2 - significantly above March's record low of 34.6 and beating the consensus forecast of 36.5.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7aOcHFX7I/AAAAAAAANq0/-2MBC-M098M/s1600-h/italy+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331938950452174770" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 213px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7aOcHFX7I/AAAAAAAANq0/-2MBC-M098M/s400/italy+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /In addition other recent data suggest that the lowest point may have been past with business confidence improving in April (following 10 consecutive monthly falls), and consumer morale hitting its highest level in 16 months. However Markit reported that about 40 percent of companies in the survey reported new order levels continued to fall during the month, even though at the slowest rate of decline in seven months. Output fell at its slowest rate since October, with the sub-index jumping to 35.9 in April from 32.8 in March. Overseas orders, even though they fell less sharply in April, still clocked up their 14th successive month of decline, with Markit noting that demand was particularly weak from Eastern Europe and Russia. /ppAnd job losses in Italy's manufacturing sector showed no signs of letting up and were running at the second fastest rate in almost 12 years of data collection following the record low hit by the employment index in March.br /br /However, saying that the "darkest hour" in this contraction may be over is not the same thing as saying that recovery is anywhere in sight. Italy's manufacturing PMI has now not indicated growth since February 2008 and forecasts generally expect the economy to contract by around four percent this year, making for two straight years of continuous contraction for the first time since World War Two. Indeed, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has even already pencilled in a potential further contraction for 2010, which if realised will mean Italy's economy will have been shrinking for an almost unprecedented 3 years continuously.br /br /strongGermany/strongbr /br /German manufacturing contracted for the ninth month running in April, though the pace of the downturn eased to its slowest since last November. The headline manufacturing PMI in Europe's largest economy registered 35.4, still a very low level, but nonetheless up significantly from March's reading of 32.4. /ppa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7a_hZnbyI/AAAAAAAANq8/AGJjuYA9ZhM/s1600-h/germany+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331939793685671714" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 216px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7a_hZnbyI/AAAAAAAANq8/AGJjuYA9ZhM/s400/germany+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /"April's survey provides hope that the German manufacturing downturn has passed its nadir, as the PMI moved further above January's record low," according to Tim Moore, economist at Markit Economics. "However, output still fell at a rate unprecedented prior to the fourth quarter of 2008, prompting firms to trim employment and inventories to the greatest extent in the survey history," he added. /ppNew orders declined for the tenth successive month but at a much slower pace than in March, with the sub-index rising to 37.0 from 28.9 - a series record month-on-month rise. The improvement in the PMI results fits in with other recent sentiment indicator readings in German, with the Ifo institute's business climate index improving in April to its best level in five months, while the ZEW investor sentiment gauge rose to its highest level in almost two years. However, we are still a far cry from a return to output growth in Germany, with most observers anticipating a GDP contraction of between 5% and 7% for 2009, and given the export dependence we should be looking for an increase in imports in main customer economies before we start thinking about any expansion in German manufacturing output.br /br /strongFrance/strongbr /br /The pace of decline in French manufacturing activity continued to ease in April, and the Markit/CDAF headline manufacturing PMI rose to 40.1, showing a sharp rebound from March's final reading of 36.5. The April level was the highest since October 2008.br /br //ppa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7bmxNrcfI/AAAAAAAANrE/2ICdMoiCkCY/s1600-h/french+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331940467945468402" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 212px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7bmxNrcfI/AAAAAAAANrE/2ICdMoiCkCY/s400/french+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /The new orders sub-index jumped to 41.1 from 34.3 in March, while Markit also reported evidence of higher sales to clients in emerging countries, a factor which helped to slow the pace of decline in new export orders.br /br /Other indicators published recently have shown similar positive signals, adding to the sentiment that the French economic contraction may well have stabilised. Household spending on manufactured goods rose by a stronger-than-expected 1.1 percent in March, after a 1.8 percent fall in February, while April's consumer confidence index improved for the second successive month. However the latest employment data shows headline unemployment rising by 63,400 to 2,448,200 in March, and April's PMI survey only added to the bleak news as firms continued to slash jobs over the month. According to Markit , despite easing to its slowest level in 2009, the rate of decline in employment remained close to January's survey record.br /br /strongGreece/strongbr /br /br /Greece's manufacturing sector also rebounded in April, with the headline manufacturing PMI rising to 40.9 from a record low of 38.2 in March. This was the seventh consecutive month of contraction. The European Commission forecasts that Greece will slide into its first recession since 1993 this year. In its spring forecasts, the Commission forecast the Greek economy would shrink by 0.9 percent this year before recovering positive growth at a rate of 0.1 percent in 2010. The largest looming problem is the budget deficit which is seen as reaching 5.1 percent of GDP in 2009 and 5.7 percent in 2010. As a result general government debt is expected to widen to 103.4 percent of GDP in 2009 and 108 percent in 2010, while unemployment is seen by the Commission at 9.1 percent in 2009 and 9.7 percent in 2010.br /br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SgAmykqFcRI/AAAAAAAANrs/yYU6A7oZRhs/s1600-h/greece+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5332304609082175762" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 227px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SgAmykqFcRI/AAAAAAAANrs/yYU6A7oZRhs/s400/greece+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /strongEastern Europe/strongbr /br /strongPoland/strongbr /br /Business confidence in Poland's industrial sector was lower than expected in April as new orders kept falling and job shedding continued. The ABN AMRO headline manufacturing PMI dropped marginally to 42.1 in April from 42.2 in March. This meant Poland was one of the few countries which showed a (slight) deterioration in manufacturing conditions in April. New business indicators were mixed in April, with the new orders index falling to 40.9, from 41.4 in March, while new export orders increased to 40.7, from 39.1. The total manufacturing output index fell to 42.0, as industrial companies continued shedding jobs, although at a pace slower than that seen in the first quarter. The April employment index rose to 40.2, from 39.9 in Mrch.br /br /Output prices charged by manufacturers fell in April, while input prices fell for the first time in three months as firms reported lower prices of raw materials.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7TZQguidI/AAAAAAAANqM/C34ofIThuM0/s1600-h/poland+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331931439735671250" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 229px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7TZQguidI/AAAAAAAANqM/C34ofIThuM0/s400/poland+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /strongCzech Republic/strongbr /br /The manufacturing decline slowed in the Czech Republic in April, and the headline PMI rose to 38.6 from 34.0 in March. This was the 10th straight month of contraction in Czech manufacturing, with the substantial drop in export orders being the main culprit. April did however see the third consecutive rise in the index reading. Markit said seasonally adjusted new orders remained on an upward trajectory and registered the slowest rate of decrease since last September. Czech manufacturers did, however, continue to make substantial cuts in their workforces in April, and while the employment index rose from March's record low, it still indicated a rapid rate of decline.br /br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7UZcsZGDI/AAAAAAAANqU/yU0EyQwrAWU/s1600-h/czech+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331932542517450802" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 227px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7UZcsZGDI/AAAAAAAANqU/yU0EyQwrAWU/s400/czech+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /strongHungary/strongbr /br /Activity in Hungary's manufacturing sector continued to contract in April, although the pace of contraction is now down slightly from January's all-time low. The weakness of the rebound however does underline the depth of the recession the country is now in.br /br /The headline manufacturing PMI stood at a seasonally adjusted 40.4 in April, up slightly from the 39.5 registered in March, according to the release from the Hungarian association of logistics. This was the seventh consecutive month of contraction, following the all-time low of 38.5 hit in January. The Hungarian government currently forecasts that GDP will contract by as much as 6% this year as the German economy, Hungary's chief export market, also faces a similar decline in GDP. Hungarian manufacturing output contracted even more in April than in March, to 37.1 from 37.6. The export index showed a further decline to 35.6 from 36.5 in March. The only positive development came from the new orders index which showed a marginal increase to 37.5 from a reading of 35.0 in March.br /br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7VcBa8pnI/AAAAAAAANqc/99EFk-r2cHQ/s1600-h/hungary+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331933686247761522" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 227px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7VcBa8pnI/AAAAAAAANqc/99EFk-r2cHQ/s400/hungary+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /strongRussia/strongbr /br /The latest VTB Capital headline manufacturing PMI signalled that the sector remained in a strong downturn in April, although as elsewhere the rate of decline slowed again (for the fourth straight month) hitting the almost respectable level of 43.4 (in comparison with what is being seen elsewhere). This was the highest level in six months, although (in terms of historical comparisons) the latest results provide further evidence that the sector is experiencing a longer and more pronounced contraction than that seen during the financial crisis of 1998. At that time the PMI spent seven successive months in negative territory. In comparison the current run already extends to nine months - and we are still far from the end of the process - and in addition the rate of contraction has been much more pronounced. /ppAccording to VTB the largest component of the headline PMI – new orders – showed a weaker rate of decline in April. The rate of contraction in new business has now moderated continuously since hitting a survey record in December. However, new export business declined at a faster rate in April compared to March, suggesting that while the Russian administration's stimulus plan may be having some impact, the devaluation of the ruble is yet to make any real impact, possibly due to the hefty rate of continuing internal price inflation and also due to the sorry state of international trade. /ppWorthy of note is the fact that a number of survey respondents linked lower output levels to payment problems at clients as credit conditions remain challenging. /ppa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7RfMwo0TI/AAAAAAAANqE/PG1A0PQ0iPw/s1600-h/russia+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331929342784622898" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 244px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7RfMwo0TI/AAAAAAAANqE/PG1A0PQ0iPw/s400/russia+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /Average input costs continued to increase in April, although at a weaker rate than that seen in the previous two months. Energy prices and exchange rate fluctuations were reported by firms to have increased costs, but this was partly offset by pressure on suppliers to discount rates as underlying demand remained weak. VTB reported that competitive pressure in the manufacturing sector was evident in April as firms cut output prices for the fifth time in six months. Manufacturers also continued to cut back their workforces in April, and employment in the manufacturing sector has now fallen continuously since May 2008, and the rate of job shedding remained marked despite easing for the third month running.br /br /strongAsia/strongbr /br /strongJapan/strongbr /br /br /Japanese manufacturing activity contracted at a slower pace for the third consecutive month in April, and the Nomura/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI rose to a seasonally adjusted 41.4 from 33.8 in March, the largest gain since data were first compiled in October 2001. However, the index remained below the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the 14th straight month.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf4Hmo29UEI/AAAAAAAANpk/yGhRzxBwzhQ/s1600-h/japan+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331707369237598274" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 221px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf4Hmo29UEI/AAAAAAAANpk/yGhRzxBwzhQ/s400/japan+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /The output component of the PMI index also rose for the third straight month to 39.4 from 25.9 in March. In January the index was at 18.5, the lowest on record. Japan however remains mired in its worst recession since World War Two and after a hefty 3.2 percent GDP drop in the fourth quarter of 2008 is thought to have contracted even more rapidly in the first quarter of this year, despite some early tentative signs of a recovery in exports.br /br /strongChina/strongbr /br /China’s manufacturing expanded for the first time in either eight or nine months (depending on which index you chose - see below) as the decline in export orders moderated and investment surged on the back of the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package.br /br /The CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.1 in April from 44.8 in March.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7NPs_vS4I/AAAAAAAANp0/DVE7lyvJf0U/s1600-h/china+pmi+two.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331924678513478530" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 236px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7NPs_vS4I/AAAAAAAANp0/DVE7lyvJf0U/s400/china+pmi+two.png" border="0" //abr /The output index climbed to 51.3 from 44.3, the first expansion in nine months, while the reading for export orders rose to 48.8 from 41.4 in March. The total new-orders index climbed to 50.9 from 43.6 and the employment index rose to 50.9 from 47.1, the first expansions in nine months for both measures. /ppOn the other hand the official (government sponsored) China Federation of Logistics amp; Purchasing manufacturing index also showed growth, in this case for the second consecutive month, with the headline index rising to 53.5 in April from 52.4 in March.br //ppThere are various differences between the two indexes (for a summary of the issues raised a href="http://chinaeconomywatch.blogspot.com/2009/04/manufacturing-industry-contracts-again.html"see my last month's post here/a), but the gist of the matter is that the government-backed measure is weighted more than the CLSA index toward large state-owned enterprises, which have benefited more directly from the government stimulus measures./ppa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7MqYZpx_I/AAAAAAAANps/TS5vC1_-iW8/s1600-h/china+CPI+one.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331924037329864690" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 241px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7MqYZpx_I/AAAAAAAANps/TS5vC1_-iW8/s400/china+CPI+one.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /br /br /strongIndia/strongbr /br /The April reading for the Indian headline manufacturing PMI is the highest in seven months and the index has now steadily risen after hitting a trough of 44.4 in December. Indeed output at Indian factories grew for the first time in five months in April, with the ABN Amro Bank's index rising to 53.3 from 49.5 in March.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7O4-gHKTI/AAAAAAAANp8/Py4mXlvfHlc/s1600-h/india+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331926487098927410" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 224px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf7O4-gHKTI/AAAAAAAANp8/Py4mXlvfHlc/s400/india+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /The new orders index rose to 54.9 from 49.5 in March. The return to growth was primarily driven by an improvement in domestic demand, according to the accompanying report. "Although the rise in new business came principally from the home market, there was also some, albeit slight, improvement in foreign demand for Indian manufactures," ABN Amro Bank said in the official release.br /br /Indices tracking trends in output and new orders continued to rise, both breaching the neutral threshold of 50 for the first time since last October, it added. It should be noted, however, that growth of both output and new orders was well below their survey averages. Along with the expansion Indian manufacturers noted renewed input price inflationary pressures. A combination of increased prices for some commodities and unfavourable exchange rates led to a moderate rise in input costs during April. This is the first time that input price inflation has been recorded in India's manufacturing sector since October last year. However continuing competitive pressures meant that manufacturers did not pass on their cost pressures on to customers, and factory gate prices were cut for the sixth straight month. However, the latest drop in average prices was the weakest in the current period of falling output prices.br /br /Employment levels across India’s manufacturing economy were little-changed during April with increased production requirements leading to recruitment on the one hand, while cost-cutting pressures produced job losses on the other.br /br /"The April PMI gives a very clear indication that business conditions in the manufacturing sector have improved significantly after a period of sharp contraction and gradual stabilisation. The headline PMI at 53.3 has signaled expansion in activity for the first time since October 2008. Moreover, the April reading is the strongest since October 2008," according to Gaurav Kapur, Senior Economist, India, with ABN Amro.br /br /"Survey data suggests that production was ramped up during April in order to cater to a pick-up demand and to build inventories. The output index printed at 55.7 for April compared to 49.3 in March, as new incoming business expanded during the month. The domestic orientation of the improvement in demand is clearly visible from the new orders index rising well above 50, even though external demand also improved modestly. New orders index printed at 54.9 as against 49.5 in March. This is critical as it suggests that domestic demand conditions are now strong and supportive for growth in the sector," he said.br /br /"While activity levels improved, the manufacturing sector witnessed some margin pressure, as inflation resurfaced on the input side but output prices contracted. For the first time since October 2008, input prices rose over the month of April. However, as demand conditions are improving, manufacturers could gradually be in a position to raise output prices too. It therefore appears that inflationary conditions in the economy, which remain benign currently, could see some upside pressures going forward," Kapur added. /ppstrongAmericas/strongbr /br /br /strongUnited States of America/strongbr /br /br /Economic activity in the United States manufacturing sector contracted again in April for the 15th consecutive month, and the overall economy contracted for the seventh consecutive month according to the US Institute for Supply Management's latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. According to Norbert J. Ore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, "The decline in the manufacturing sector continues to moderate.....After six consecutive months below the 40-percent mark, the PMI, driven by the New Orders Index at 47.2 percent, shows a significant improvement. While this is a big step forward, there is still a large gap that must be closed before manufacturing begins to grow once again. The Customers' Inventories Index indicates that channels are paring inventories to acceptable levels after reporting inventories as 'too high' for eight consecutive months. The prices manufacturers pay for their goods and services continue to decline; however, copper prices have bottomed and are now starting to rise. This is definitely a good start for the second quarter."br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf8SD-RN8iI/AAAAAAAANrc/vBsv1uXaJ2k/s1600-h/usa+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5332000343294079522" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sf8SD-RN8iI/AAAAAAAANrc/vBsv1uXaJ2k/s400/usa+pmi.png" border="0" //a/pbr /br /br /strongBrazil/strongbr /br /The seasonally adjusted Banco Santander manufacturing PMI continued to indicate a sharp contraction in Brazilian manufacturing in April. All five component indexes gave negative readings. The PMI has now registered contraction since the start of the fourth quarter of 2008. However, the reading was up for the third successive month at 44.8, suggesting a further easing in the rate of deterioration.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SgBwp4cFsbI/AAAAAAAANr0/nLQJsU1ilKw/s1600-h/brazil+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5332385823633813938" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 229px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SgBwp4cFsbI/AAAAAAAANr0/nLQJsU1ilKw/s400/brazil+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /pApril’s rise in the PMI reflected less severe drops in both output and new orders. Production levels at Brazilian manufacturers continued to fall, but the rate of contraction eased sharply to its weakest since last September. Declining output was predominantly attributed to unfavorable financial and economic conditions, alongside lower levels of new business. However, incoming work contracted at a noticeably slower rate than in March. Data suggested a milder decline in domestic sales, however foreign demand for Brazilian products fell at a faster pace than in earlier months./pdiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-9074059723132222334?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/the-global-manufacturing-contraction-stabilises-in-april/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Zevotek, Inc. (ZVTK.PK) Signs International Marketing and Sales Agreement</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/zevotek-inc-zvtkpk-signs-international-marketing-and-sales-agreement/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/zevotek-inc-zvtkpk-signs-international-marketing-and-sales-agreement/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2009 14:22:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>QualityStocks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Small & Micro Cap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy-efficient lighting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungry;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Liechtenstein]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media Shop;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Slovakia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Switzerland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zevotek Inc.;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://Blog.QualityStocks.net/?p=15231</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Zevotek, Inc. was pleased to announce this morning that it has completed an overseas marketing and sales agreement with Media Shop. The sales agreement covers the territories of Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Slovakia, Hungry, Liechtenstein, Romania, Poland and the Czech Republic.
The company stated, “With Media Shop&#8217;s proven sales and marketing track record we are very excited [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/zevotek-inc-zvtkpk-signs-international-marketing-and-sales-agreement/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (April 27 – May 3, 2009)</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/commodities/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-april-27-%e2%80%93-may-3-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/commodities/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-april-27-%e2%80%93-may-3-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 May 2009 08:11:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Prieur du Plessis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[200;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Bolton;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asha Bangalore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[base metal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ben bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Berkshire Hathaway]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bespoke;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bill king]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bloomberg Television]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bulgaria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cape Town]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chart;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crude oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Fuller (Fullermoney);]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Denver Post]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[donald coxe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dow 30]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dow theory letters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[emerginvest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Central Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Open Market Committee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fidelity International;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[flu;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Motors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[google]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greece]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[I-Net Bridge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Indonesia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investment postcards]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ireland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iShares Dow Jones Real Estate Fund;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Nyaradi;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joint Economic Committee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Lane;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luxembourg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macedonia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Malta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[May Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Keefe;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSCI Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSCI Taiwan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MSCI World]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nasdaq 100]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nasdaq Composite]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Northern Trust]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Omaha]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pearl Harbor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rebecca Wilder;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[richard russell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[south korea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sp 500]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SPDR KBW Bank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swine Flu;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thailand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Denver Post;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the Washington Post]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US Global Funds;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wachovia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall  Street Journal Online]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street Journal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warren Buffett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Workers  Day;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/05/03/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-april-27-%e2%80%93-may-3-2009/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA["Goodbye safe havens, hello risky assets." This was the refrain of investors' theme song during the past week. Safe-haven assets were out of favor as better-than-feared corporate earnings and signs of a budding economic recovery emboldened investors' appetite for reflation trades such as equities and commodities. Read all about this and the implications for financial markets in the weekly "Words from the Wise" review.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/commodities/words-from-the-investment-wise-for-the-week-that-was-april-27-%e2%80%93-may-3-2009/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Moldova and the Coming Conflicts</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/moldova-and-the-coming-conflicts/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/moldova-and-the-coming-conflicts/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Apr 2009 14:51:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robert Amsterdam</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chechnya]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chisinau;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Communist government;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Georgia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Islamic Republic of Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kosovo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latin America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moldova]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moscow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Putin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Serbia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Schwartz;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Weekly Standard;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ukraine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vladimir Voronin;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:www.robertamsterdam.com,2009://1.18461</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Below is an excerpt of a frightening, slightly exaggerated, but not entirely untrue opinion article in The Weekly Standard about the Moldova protests by Stephen Schwartz. The new election of an outright Communist government was bound to stimulate discontent among...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-russia-stocks/moldova-and-the-coming-conflicts/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Mints coin it as consumers scramble for gold</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/mints-coin-it-as-consumers-scramble-for-gold/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/mints-coin-it-as-consumers-scramble-for-gold/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Apr 2009 13:39:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austrian Mint;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank vaults]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Biedermeier building;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carla Coolman;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Guenther Fuchssteiner;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hans Dieter Rauch;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Heraeus;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jan Harvey;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kerry Tattersall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Marsik;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[metal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael O Kane;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[physical product]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[precious metals group;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RBS Global Banking;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reuters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sarah Marsh;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sberbank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Briggs;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vienna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vienna Philharmonic Orchestra;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/blog/?p=1315</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex&#8217;s Notes: Do not take this as &#8220;everyone&#8221; is buying gold. Very few are. the fact is, the gold market is so small, that 1% of what is in equities and other paper instruments would cause the price to absolutely skyrocket to clear the market.
One thing I have noticed over my time being involved in [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/mints-coin-it-as-consumers-scramble-for-gold/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Mints coin it as consumers scramble for gold</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/mints-coin-it-as-consumers-scramble-for-gold/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/mints-coin-it-as-consumers-scramble-for-gold/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Apr 2009 13:39:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alex Stanczyk</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alex Stanczyk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austrian Mint;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank vaults]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Biedermeier building;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carla Coolman;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Guenther Fuchssteiner;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hans Dieter Rauch;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Heraeus;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jan Harvey;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kerry Tattersall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Martin Marsik;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[metal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael O Kane;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New Zealand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[physical product]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[precious metals group;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RBS Global Banking;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reuters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sarah Marsh;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sberbank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Briggs;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vienna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vienna Philharmonic Orchestra;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.rapidtrends.com/blog/?p=1315</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Alex&#8217;s Notes: Do not take this as &#8220;everyone&#8221; is buying gold. Very few are. the fact is, the gold market is so small, that 1% of what is in equities and other paper instruments would cause the price to absolutely skyrocket to clear the market.
One thing I have noticed over my time being involved in [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/gold-markets/mints-coin-it-as-consumers-scramble-for-gold/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>JPMorgan March Global PMI Report Shows (Slightly) Slowing Contraction</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/jpmorgan-march-global-pmi-report-shows-slightly-slowing-contraction/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/jpmorgan-march-global-pmi-report-shows-slightly-slowing-contraction/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Apr 2009 13:32:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ABN AMRO Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Harker;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barcelona]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canon PowerShot S400 / IXUS 400 Digital Camera;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[car-scrapping subsidies;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CLSA China;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Denmark]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dmitri Fedotkin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edward Hugh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Fishwick;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gaurav Kapur;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany factory;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greece]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gross Domestic Product]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungarian Association of Logistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Institute For Supply Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ireland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jack Kennedy;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jpmorgan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Markit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Markitbr;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ngotho;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Purchasing and Inventory Management;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reading;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samsung 400PX 40 in. HDTV-Ready LCD TV;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Slovakia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steel Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sweden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UBS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Volkswagen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VTB Capital;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Western Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Trade Organisation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-2187080331415995569</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Edward Hugh: Barcelona br /br /Data from the JPMorgan March Global PMI provide solid evidence that the speed of contraction in global manufacturing is lessening at the present time. Indexes tracking trends in output and new orders generally continued to rise across the globe, and are in general now up significantly from the series lows registered at the end of 2008. However, both the output and the new orders indexes remained at very low levels, all still signalling continuing contraction and well below those consistent with anything resembling a recovery in either component.br /br /The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI – which provides a single figure snapshot of operating conditions across the planet – posted 37.2 in March. Although substantially below the no-change mark of 50.0, the PMI was up for the third month in row and at its highest level since last October. The vast majority of the national manufacturing PMIs rose in March, including the US, Russia, Japan, China, most Eurozone nations and the UK.br /br /This is however the most sustained period of contraction in the series history, and it still remains very unclear where we go from here. In general the drop in output reflects weak demand, with new orders declining for the twelfth month in a row. The trouble is, it is not at all clear where the rebound in demand that is needed for a recovery is actually going to come from.br /br /Only last week the World Trade Organisation forecast a drop of 9% in the volume of international trade in 2009, and it is clear that in most economies output volumes continue to be hit by global as well as by local factors. That is what globalisation means, in effect, we are all interlocked.The rate of contraction in new export orders was severe, and in line with that seen for total order books.br /br /When assesing the present situation, I think we need to keep three factors in mind: employment, inventories, and the massive stimulus packages which are being implemented.br /br /On the employment front, the March data pointed to further job losses, as staffing levels were cut for the eleventh successive month, pointing to weakening consumer demand further along the road. The rate of decline moderated but remained historically high. All of the national manufacturing surveys for which March data were available reported reductions in employment. Denmark, the US and Czech Republic registered the fastest rates of decline.br /br /As far as stocks go Global manufacturers continued to unwind their inventory positions in March. Stocks of purchases declined at the fastest pace in the series history. Among the national manufacturing sectors covered, only India reported a gain in input inventories. Even here, the rate of growth was marginal. So one of the reasons why output levels may bounce back slighly in the next few months is that inventory levels must now be quite low in many cases, and to some extent new orders will need to be met from production rather than from stocks. In addition, we are in the middle of the stimulus programmes, and it would be surprising if we didn't see some impact on manufacturing output from all that money being spent. Another question altogether would be whether any of this spending is capable of gaining traction. With consumers all over the developed world battening down the hatches for a long winter, and saving as hard as they can to put some order back in their balance sheets, it would be surprising if the stimulus packages on the scale we are seeing them were actually sufficient to turn all this round at this point. So the outlook is, a few months of easing in the contraction, and then more of the same.br /br /pa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOb0JJNRoI/AAAAAAAANZQ/LC3Tn0Q5Ok4/s1600-h/global+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5319766904964728450" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 226px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOb0JJNRoI/AAAAAAAANZQ/LC3Tn0Q5Ok4/s400/global+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /strongEurope/strongbr /br /br /strongSweden/strongbr /br /Sweden's seasonally adjusted manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 36.7 in March from 33.9 in February, but the index remained below the threshold level for the ninth consecutive month in March, although this was the third consecutive month of improvement. In March, the production index rose to 38.8 from 34, while new orders index moved up to 35.1 from 28.8. The employment index increased to 31.1 from 30.1 and the inventories index rose 3 points to 39.6. Meanwhile, the prices index fell to 27.7 from 30.4.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdSsIijI3QI/AAAAAAAANZo/kbDWgXs6daU/s1600-h/sweden+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5320066322544516354" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdSsIijI3QI/AAAAAAAANZo/kbDWgXs6daU/s400/sweden+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /br /strongEurozone/strongbr /br /The Markit Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI for March rose from February's all-time low, up to 33.9 from 33.5. Thus the PMI signalled a marginal easing in the rate of decline from the previous month's record pace. Output showed the weakest decline for five months, and a smaller fall than the Flash estimate, although the rate of decline remained well above that seen prior to last October. With the exception of Italy, Austria and Greece, rates of contraction eased in each of the eight countries surveyed. /ppThe Netherlands saw the smallest (though still steep) drop in production, while Spain saw the sharpest decline for the eleventh straight month. By product, investment goods producers reported the steepest fall in production for the third successive month, closely followed by intermediate goods producers. Consumer goods firms meanwhile reported the weakest rate of decline for the seventh consecutive month. Stocks of both raw materials and finished goods fell at record rates, as companies focused on lowering their operating capacity and controlling costs. The reduction in unsold goods stock was especially steep in Ireland, Germany and France.br /br /br /strongGermany/strongbr /br /Declines in German manufacturing activity continued to slow in March, however, activity in the sector continues to contract at a sharp pace, the research firm added.br /br /The German manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 32.4 in March, up one point from February's figure and in line with both preliminary estimates and expectations. March's increase marks the second consecutive month of improvement after PMI reached a 12-year low in January of 32.0. Nevertheless, the figure remains well in contraction territory, with the average taken across Q1 as a whole notably lower than the previous quarter's figure. According to the PMI report, manufacturing output and new orders continued to contract, albeit at a reduced pace, while employment fell at a record pace over the month. "The sector's performance in Q1 was at least as bad as Q4 and therefore points to another heavy fall in GDP," Markit senior economist Paul Smith said.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdN32TmD0hI/AAAAAAAANYA/Wgyk9RonEZw/s1600-h/german+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5319727359711236626" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 216px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdN32TmD0hI/AAAAAAAANYA/Wgyk9RonEZw/s400/german+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /strongSpain/strongbr /br /The pace of decline in Spanish manufacturing slowed in March but remained at the steepest contraction rate of any eurozone country. The PMI rose in March to 32.9 from 31.8 in February and thus further off from December's record low of 28.5. All the survey's main indicators remain far below the 50 level that divides growth from contraction. Output and new orders continued to contract sharply in March but at slower rates than recorded in the last six months, with panellists blaming falling demand as the principal cause as clients cut back on spending. /pblockquote"The March PMI data suggests that the pace of decline in the Spanishbr /manufacturing sector has slowed," said economist Andrew Harker at Markitbr /Economics, adding that new orders and output indices are well above record lowsbr /posted late last year. /blockquotepBut Harker was at pains to stress that the March figures should not be interpreted as any sort of sign of a turnaround in the Spanish economy. Unemployment in the sector continued to rise in line with falling output requirements as joblessness in the wider Spanish economy stood at 15 percent, the highest rate in the European Union. More than 34 percent of those surveyed by Markit said they had noted reduced employment levels at the end of the first quarter. Staffing levels have shrunken continuously since September 2007, according to the survey.br /br /Slumping demand also hit input and output costs, which both dropped to series lows in March. Input costs fell as firms negotiated better prices from suppliers, while output prices fell as these savings were passed on to customers and as scarce business fuelled greater pricing competition.br /br /Spain's preliminary harmonised inflation fell to -0.1 percent in March, according to government data on Monday, the first negative result for over 45 years as the deepening recession weighed on price gains.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdN5CG0MY1I/AAAAAAAANYI/p1-5jcO2oNc/s1600-h/spain+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5319728661950915410" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 219px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdN5CG0MY1I/AAAAAAAANYI/p1-5jcO2oNc/s400/spain+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /strongItaly/strongbr /br /Italy once again goes against the stream, since manufacturing activity fell in Italy at its fastest pace on record in March, with the manufacturing purchasing managers index falling to a record low of 34.6, down from February's 35.0 and suggesting an unprecedented contraction in activity for the sector. Weakness was widespread, Markit said in their report. Staffing levels were cut at a record pace as firms were forced to adapt to falling workloads and declining new orders. Backlogs of work also declined at their sharpest pace in the history of the PMI as falling demand meant firms to were increasingly able to complete outstanding projects.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdN51AxsiLI/AAAAAAAANYQ/LKo07O4qRSQ/s1600-h/italy+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5319729536503154866" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 212px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdN51AxsiLI/AAAAAAAANYQ/LKo07O4qRSQ/s400/italy+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /strongFrance/strongbr /br /French manufacturing output fell at a slower pace in March than in February, but but the outlook remained highly fragile as demand continued to suffer and firms stepped up job cuts. The Markit/CDAF manufacturing purchasing managers' index came in at 36.5 , well still below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. The reading was, however, better than the record series low of 34.8 seen in February. /pblockquote"Although output and new orders fell at slower rates in March, the latest PMIbr /data still point to severe weakness in the French manufacturing sector as thebr /slump in demand continues," said Jack Kennedy, an economist with Markitbr /Economics. /blockquotepAgain, in a picture we get from one country after another, there was a sharp fall in inventories of finished goods. This suggests the overhang of unsold stock is diminishing, and once the destocking phase is complete, falls in production should ease for a bit, although I doubt such upticks will be enough to retart the economy given the depth of the current recession/depression. On the investment side, it was notable that those taking part in the survey said consumers and businesses were reluctant to commit to new spending.br /br /The new orders index hit 34.3 in March from 30.1 in February, but remained deep in negative territory, marking its 10th consecutive month of contraction, according to the survey. Faced with dwindling levels of new business, firms worked through backlogs at a rapid pace, and slashed jobs to trim excess capacity, pushing the factory employment index to its second-lowest level in the series history, at 36.2.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdN6tFps-gI/AAAAAAAANYY/x0boFvR7v1g/s1600-h/france+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5319730499884481026" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 213px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdN6tFps-gI/AAAAAAAANYY/x0boFvR7v1g/s400/france+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /strongGreece/strongbr /br /The Greek Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a new record low of 38.2 in March, reflecting a sharp drop in production, new orders, employment and inventories during the month. The markit economics monthly report said factory prices fell more rapidly in March, while import prices fell at a slower rate, a sign of further pressure in companies’ profits. The employment rate in the Greek manufacturing sector fell to a record low in the same month.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOPcshxoLI/AAAAAAAANYg/i1dudvYR1IQ/s1600-h/greece+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5319753308006621362" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOPcshxoLI/AAAAAAAANYg/i1dudvYR1IQ/s400/greece+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /strongEastern Europe/strongbr /br /br /strongHungary/strongbr /br /Hungary's manufacturing purchasing manager index eased by 0.2 percentage points to 39.5 in March picking up from an all-time low in February, according to the Hungarian Association of Logistics, Purchasing and Inventory Management (HALPIM). The contraction of the manufacturing sector that started last October has continued, and its rate has even increased as compared to February.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOSL6VC2dI/AAAAAAAANYo/XhRQoI8mtCg/s1600-h/hungary+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5319756318188427730" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 227px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOSL6VC2dI/AAAAAAAANYo/XhRQoI8mtCg/s400/hungary+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /strongPoland/strongbr /br /In Poland, the index rose to 42.2 points, the highest in five months, from 40.8 in February. The decline in Polish industry decelerated for the third month in a row and was the least weakest rate since November. Markit said both new orders overall and new export orders continued to contract rapidly, reflecting weakening demand from western Europe, while employment fell to a new record low for the fastest rate of decline since the survey began in July 2001.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOTTGGncEI/AAAAAAAANYw/k8E5o1zxFew/s1600-h/poland+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5319757541119848514" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOTTGGncEI/AAAAAAAANYw/k8E5o1zxFew/s400/poland+PMI.png" border="0" //a /pblockquoteRoderick Ngotho, a strategist at UBS, pointed to German PMI data also released on Wednesday, which he said did not reflect a collapse in Germany factory orders and it was possible sentiment was "adapting to bad news". "Hence though still quite poor, it could be looking for a base in the poor side of the scale. This is different from sentiment being outright optimistic due to a positive change in global macro indicators," he said. "Without global demand picking up and with domestic demand generally weak, it is difficult to envisage a positive environment for industrial orders/output to pick up meaningfully in the near term." /blockquotestrongThe Czech Republic/strongbr /br /The Czech Purchasing Managers' Index inched up to 34.0 in March from 32.6 in February and from the record low set in January. The Czech decline was also the least extreme in five months, but the first quarter as a whole still pointed to a much steeper rate of decline than the second half of 2008, said Markit, which compiles the PMIs.br /br /The slower rate of contraction in March could, of course, be linked to the effects of the car-scrapping subsidies introduced in some 10 EU countries in January. Carmakers are the main drivers of economies like those in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, where leading global manufacturers have set up factories this decade. Both countries have seen their sharp declines in output ease in recent weeks. Some firms, including the Volkswagen unit Skoda, have recently hired additional workers and resumed full working weeks to handle the resulting surge in orders, the problem for these economies is that the subsidy effect may only last for several months.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOW1E-JuRI/AAAAAAAANY4/73vXJOC47Xk/s1600-h/czech+repub+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5319761423466346770" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 227px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOW1E-JuRI/AAAAAAAANY4/73vXJOC47Xk/s400/czech+repub+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /strongRussia/strongbr /br /Russian manufacturing contracted at the slowest pace for five months in March as companies reduced their stocks of unsold goods and the decline in new business eased, according to the latest PMI report from VTB Capital. The VTB Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 42 last month after a 40.6 reading in February. Stockpiles of unsold goods fell at the fastest rate since December 2005.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdN0vwccH1I/AAAAAAAANX4/-IfuXesro5A/s1600-h/russia+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5319723948661546834" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 244px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdN0vwccH1I/AAAAAAAANX4/-IfuXesro5A/s400/russia+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /blockquote“Stocks of unsold goods declined which, combined with a sluggish contraction of the new business sub-index, suggest that the headline index may keep rising into the second quarter,” Dmitri Fedotkin, a VTB economist, said in the statement. Still, “no sharp recovery” in the index is to be expected. /blockquoteThe index showed contraction for the eighth straight month, a longer period of decline than the one registered in 1998, when the government devalued the ruble and defaulted on $40 billion of debt.br /br /blockquoteThe manufacturing workforce shed jobs for the 11th month in a row, the longest period of contraction in the survey’s history, VTB said. “Firms reported that the redundancies resulted from lower workloads and the subsequent need to cut spare capacity,” it said in the statement./blockquotebr /strongAsia/strongbr /br /br /strongChina/strongbr /br /China’s manufacturing industry shrank for an eighth straight month in March as collapsing global trade cut exports and growth across Asia. The CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to a seasonally adjusted 44.8 last month from 45.1 in February. So again, while the stimulus programme is slowing the rate of contraction, there is no sign of any expansion in China.br /br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdMC-dg0z4I/AAAAAAAANXw/agaOj6lMRMI/s1600-h/china+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5319598856952139650" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 236px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdMC-dg0z4I/AAAAAAAANXw/agaOj6lMRMI/s400/china+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /The manufacturing component of the index continued to increase, rising for a fourth month from a record low of 40.9 in November. The export orders index rose to 41.4 from 39.5 in February. New orders climbed to 43.6 from 44.2. Output gained to 44.3 from 43.9, while the employment index rose to 47.1 from 46.6, its second increase in eight months.br /br /blockquote/blockquoteblockquote“A worsening of domestic manufacturing orders lies behind the drop in the PMI and accords with what we are seeing on the ground in the steel industry,” said Eric Fishwick, head of economic research at CLSA in Hong Kong. “Expect the production index to show softness in April......More encouragingly, export orders continue to improve,” he added “They are still falling but at the most moderate pace since October.” /blockquotepstrongIndia/strongbr /br /Indian manufacturing activity contracted for a fifth straight month in March as demand remained depressed by the global economic downturn, although there were some signs of improvement, according to the report which accompanied the ABN AMRO Bank purchasing managers' index. The index rose to a seasonally adjusted 49.5 in February from January's 47.0, indicating slight signs of slight improvement after hitting a 44.4 trough in December, getting now very close to the reading of over 50 which signals economic expansion. "On the whole, it appears that business conditions in the manufacturing sector are gradually improving," said Gaurav Kapur, senior economist at ABN Amro Bank. Perhaps India's is the only manufacturing sector in the global economy which gives some indication of moving out of contraction and into recovery at this point.br //ppManufacturing, however, currently only makes up about 16 percent of India's gross domestic product. "It appears that domestic demand is picking up," Kapur said. "External demand, however, remains weak and contracted in March too, for the sixth consecutive month." The new orders index rose to 49.5 from 45.9 in February. /pa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOY0awjgLI/AAAAAAAANZA/iju4dU-we6Y/s1600-h/india+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5319763611158282418" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 222px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOY0awjgLI/AAAAAAAANZA/iju4dU-we6Y/s400/india+pmi.png" border="0" //astrong/strong pstrong/strong/ppstrongAmericas/strongbr /br /strongUnited States/strongbr /br /Manufacturing in the U.S. contracted for a 14th straight month in March as factories kept on cutting production, though a spike in new orders and the lowest inventories since 1982 indicate the industry may be stabilizing to some extent, whether in the short term or the longer term remains to be seen. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 36.3 last month from 35.8 in February. Still, the contraction is very pronounced at this point. /ppa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOapvyX5ZI/AAAAAAAANZI/jRsSVZi-_CE/s1600-h/USA+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5319765626847749522" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdOapvyX5ZI/AAAAAAAANZI/jRsSVZi-_CE/s400/USA+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /The ISM’s gauge of inventories fell to 32.2, the lowest since August 1982, from 37 in February. Even as manufacturers are pushing their inventory levels down ISM representatives stressed “we’re probably two, three months away from seeing significant improvement in new orders that would be driven by customer inventories coming in line.”/ppstrongBrazil/strong/pMarch data pointed to yet another weak performance of Brazil’s manufacturing economy despite the fact that the headline seasonally adjusted Banco Santander Purchasing Managers’ Index registered its highest reading since last October (42.2). Despite a slower contraction in output being recorded in March, the pace of decline remained substantial. The trend in production closely followed that of new orders, although another severe depletion in unfinished work prevented it from falling as severely. Stocks of finished goods were also lower than in February, and the latest data are consistent with a modest reduction in inventory holdings, with manufacturers frequently responding that orders had been met directly from existing stocks.br /br /Input and output prices fell at series record rates during March. The drop in purchasing costs was only the second in the survey history, and reflected weak global demand for fuel and raw materials. Manufacturers passed these reductions on to customers, by way of lower charges, in an effort to remain competitive in a difficult market environmentbr /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdSqdiPCHqI/AAAAAAAANZg/5_sNQkE8J3c/s1600-h/brazil+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5320064484214185634" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 229px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SdSqdiPCHqI/AAAAAAAANZg/5_sNQkE8J3c/s400/brazil+PMI.png" border="0" //adiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-2187080331415995569?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/jpmorgan-march-global-pmi-report-shows-slightly-slowing-contraction/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Topolánek&#8217;s toppling leads to early Czech election</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/topolaneks-toppling-leads-to-early-czech-election/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/topolaneks-toppling-leads-to-early-czech-election/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2009 00:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manuel Alvarez-Rivera</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christian and Democratic Union - Czechoslovak People's Party;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Civic Democratic Party (ODS);]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Communist Party]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech parliament;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Social Democratic Party;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Green party]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jiří Paroubek;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manuel Alvarez-Rivera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Milos Zeman;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mirek Topolanek;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Senate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Slovakia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Social Democratic government;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SSD;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sweden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vaclav Klaus;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-855501266050855123</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Manuel Alvarez-Rivera, Puerto Ricobr /br /The Czech Republic will be holding an early general election later this year - nearly a year ahead of schedule - after the center-right coalition government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek was brought down last week in a parliamentary no-confidence vote. Topolánek, who submitted his resignation last Thursday but remains as caretaker head of government and leader of the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) - the largest party in the Central European country's bicameral legislature - subsequently reached an agreement with former Prime Minister Jiří Paroubek, the leader of the Czech Social Democratic Party (#268;SSD) - the main opposition force - to hold an early poll next October; a specific date remains to be determined.br /br /Prime Minister Topolánek came to office following a closely fought general election in June 2006, which left the Chamber of Deputies - the lower house of the Czech Parliament - evenly split between left- and right-wing parties. However, in early 2007 Topolánek was able to secure a parliamentary majority with the help of two rebel #268;SSD deputies, and he went on to survive four no-confidence motions during the course of 2007 and 2008. Nonetheless, his government depended upon a fragile majority, which was finally shattered when four dissident deputies - two from ODS, plus two recently expelled from the Green Party (SZ) - sided with #268;SSD and the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KS#268;M) to pass by 101-96 a vote of no-confidence.br /br /Coincidentally, the fall of the Czech government came on the same day that Topolánek - who currently holds the European Union's rotating presidency - made headlines around the world when he criticized the economic stimulus program of U.S. President Barack Obama as "the road to hell." While the vote of confidence was triggered by allegations of abuse of state subsidies by a deputy who left #268;SSD to support ODS, some opposition deputies voted to bring down Topolánek as a protest against his government's economic policies, which according to them failed to deal effectively with the global financial crisis; although the Czech economy is not in as dire straits as those of other nearby countries (such as Hungary), the Czech Republic is nonetheless forecast to suffer a recession this year.br /br /Opinion polls have #268;SSD ahead of ODS; that said, the gap between the two parties appears to be narrowing down. Nonetheless, the Social Democrats are hoping for a repeat of their performance in last October's regional and Senate elections, in which #268;SSD captured 23 of 27 Senate mandates up for renewal, depriving ODS of its absolute majority in the upper house of Parliament. Although it has some ex-Communist members, #268;SSD is not a post-Communist party; unlike major left-of-center parties in other Eastern European countries, it traces its roots to the Social Democratic Party that was forcibly merged with the Communists in 1948. However, the Czech Social Democrats have to compete on the left with the Communists, who still command a significant following.br /br /The Czech Chamber of Deputies is elected by party-list proportional representation in regional constituencies - A HREF="http://electionresources.org/cz/"Parliamentary Elections in the Czech Republic/A has a review of the Czech electoral system - and no single party has ever commanded an absolute lower house majority. Moreover, the ongoing presence of a sizable, unreformed Communist Party has greatly complicated the task of forming stable governments in the Czech Republic. While the Social Democrats have called upon Communist support from time to time (as they did for last week's no-confidence vote), neither them nor the parties to their right regard the Communists as suitable coalition partners, largely for historical reasons: save for the short-lived "Prague Spring" of 1968, the Communist Party governed Czechoslovakia - the now-defunct federation of the Czech Republic and Slovakia - in a totalitarian fashion from 1948 to 1989, when the Velvet Revolution put an end to the Communist regime.br /br /As a result, since 1996 the Czech Republic has been ruled either by shaky coalition cabinets, such as those formed from 2002 to 2006 by #268;SSD and the four party coalition headed by the Christian and Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party (KDU-#268;SL), and from 2007 to the present by ODS, KDU-#268;SL and SZ; or by minority governments dependent upon the good will of the opposition, as was the case from 1998 to 2002, when ODS reached an "opposition agreement" with #268;SSD under which the Civic Democrats tolerated Milos Zeman's minority Social Democratic government without supporting it.br /br /In fact, Topolánek may have to reach out to the Social Democrats in order to secure Senate passage of the Lisbon Treaty, which would streamline the functioning of the European Union. While Topolánek is in favor of the treaty, many Euroskeptics in ODS remain opposed to it, as is President Vaclav Klaus, the former leader of the Civic Democrats.br /br /At this juncture, it remains unclear what will happen to Prime Minister Topolánek's outgoing government until the election is held. #268;SSD leader Paroubek declared that he is willing to tolerate the government until the end of June (when Sweden takes over the EU presidency) if certain conditions are met, but favors the appointment of an interim government of non-party experts after that date. Meanwhile, Topolánek insists on remaining in office, but he and President Klaus - who has the right to appoint the next government - are political enemies, and not surprisingly Klaus is proposing the formation of a new cabinet without further delay. However, Czech governments require majority support in the Chamber of Deputies in order to remain in office, and in light of last week's events it appears rather unlikely that such support would be forthcoming.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-855501266050855123?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/topolaneks-toppling-leads-to-early-czech-election/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A Bailout In Disguise</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-china/a-bailout-in-disguise/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-china/a-bailout-in-disguise/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2009 00:27:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bill Bonner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank vaults]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bill Bonner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Britain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brussels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Caterpillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consumer products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[contrarian profits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech parliament;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dow 30]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[e-letter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Electricity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Central Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ian]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ibm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Ferguson;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Mauldin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Natural Gas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[printing money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tom 
Friedman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Topolanek;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trichet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Us Treasury]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wall street]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=15301</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[pThree cheers for Topolanek!/p
pNever heard of him? Neither had we until this morning. But on the front page of today’s Financial Times, we discover two extraordinary things. Topolanek is the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic (and coincidentally, president of the European Union). And, he has a very accurate road map./p
p“The US is repeating mistakes from the 1930s,” he says, “such as wide-ranging stimuluses, protectionist tendencies and appeals, the Buy American campaign and so on. All these steps, their combination and their permanency, are the road to hell.”/p
pWe’ve said so ourselves. Many times. But we are surprised to find the president of the world’s biggest and richest economy – Europe – say so. It made us feel funny…odd…as if we#8230;/p]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-china/a-bailout-in-disguise/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>And Then There’s This…Thursday, March 26th, 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/and-then-there%e2%80%99s-this%e2%80%a6thursday-march-26th-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/and-then-there%e2%80%99s-this%e2%80%a6thursday-march-26th-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2009 22:39:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aig]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Association Of Realtors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank of Nova Scotia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bill king]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[British government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Congress]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[contrarian profits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edward Liddy;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Friedrich Schiller;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Goldman Sachs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ibm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Grandits;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Williams]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mirek Topolanek;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National Milk Producers Federation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reuters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sydney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Financial Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the New York Times]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UPI;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US  road;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Us Treasury]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=15299</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[pGold was under pressure right from the open in Sydney on Wednesday morning. This pressure accelerated once London was open for business. The bottom was in about fifteen minutes after Comex floor trading began in New York. A rally began that was highlighted by a big spike in the price around the time of the London p.m. fix. Was it that#8230;or Geithner#8217;s lips moving? The top price of the day arrived shortly after Comex trading ended and electronic trading commenced. All in all, a very interesting 24 hours./p
pThe usual N.Y. commentator had this to say about yesterday#8217;s activities#8230;#8221;Wednesday#8217;s dramatic Comex session was notable for huge volume#8211;particularly before the Geithner #8220;Open Mouth/Insert Foot#8221; incident. By 10 a.m., 117,039 lots were estimated#8230;/p]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/and-then-there%e2%80%99s-this%e2%80%a6thursday-march-26th-2009/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Do They Have Parachutes In Bulgaria?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/do-they-have-parachutes-in-bulgaria/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/do-they-have-parachutes-in-bulgaria/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Mar 2009 18:09:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bulgaria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bulgarian National Bank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bulgarian National Radio;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canon PowerShot S400 / IXUS 400 Digital Camera;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit ratings agency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EBRD;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edward Hugh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy efficiency projects;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EUR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food processing industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foreign parent banks;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gdp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gross Domestic Product]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Institute for International Finance;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[intra-bank lending;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kenneth Orchard;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latvia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[metal goods;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moody's]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National Statistical Institute;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National Statistics Institute]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National Statistics Office]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nett bank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-food sales;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-metal goods;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retail]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Retail Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samsung 400PX 40 in. HDTV-Ready LCD TV;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sergey Stanishev;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thomas Mirow;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-2346065236807192211</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /With capital inflows to the CEE economies slowing to a trickle in Eastern Europe, a sharp correction is now underway in most countries' external imbalances and in particular in their current-account deficits. For the CEE-6 (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey), net private capital flows are forecast to slow to $59.5 billion in 2009, down from an estimated $161.9 billion in 2008, according to estimates from the Institute For International Finance. The basic concern is that those countries with significant external deficits are extremely vulnerable to foreign capital reversals, especially in the current environment of global credit tightening.br /br /br /FDI flows (which are generally considered more stable and less susceptible to rapid outflows than other capital flows) have been the main form of financing for current-account deficits in recent years, but such inflows are set to slow sharply in 2009. The Economist estimates that between 2003 and 20007 FDI inflows (on average) covered almost 100% of the current-account deficit in the ten EU member states. In 2008, this coverage fell to an estimated 55%br /br /As FDI has fallen back, debt - particularly intra-bank lending - has become the main financing vehicle for the current-account deficits.  Nevertheless, intra-bank lending – that is, lending between foreign parent banks and their subsidiaries in the region – is falling back sharply in 2009, with  nett bank lending to emerging Europe, excluding Russia, being projected at around $22 bn in 2009, down from $95 bn in 2008 (according to the Institute for International Finance)br /br /Now the central issue is that such corrections in external imbalances can take pplace in one of two ways - either domestic demand drops sharply and/or the currencies weaken significantly. In the case of those countries with an exchange rate peg the second route is not open, hence what we are likely to see is a very sharp contraction. Such contractions are already evident in the Baltics, but what about Bulgaria. How sharp will the correction in Bulgaria be? Only today capital economics have come in with a forecast of 5% contraction over the year. But how realistic is this, let's look at some data.br /br /br /Well, we could start with this little deatil: retail sales down 25.7% month-on-month in January, according to the national statistics office. For an economy which has been driven by a consumer borrowing and lending boom, that looks like dramatic evidence of some kind. It looks like dramatic evidence, but it isn't really quite so dramatic as it appears at first sight, and the first warning I would issue to anyone who wants to study the Bulgarian economy is never to believe anything you see at first sight.br /br /The data came from a Bulgarian press source (see extract below), but they evidently had no idea what they were talking about, since they confused the basics of year on year and month on month, and obviously non seasonally adjusted sales are down massively January over December, every year. Actually according to Eurostat, seasonally corrected sales were down only 0.15% month on month, and were even still up 4.79% year on year, although this is still a very large drop from the 20% rate of increase registered earlier in the year. So the basic point would seem to hold, that Bulgaria's economy is now in freefall, but I have learnt something: never, ever, cite material from direct Bulgarian sources without checking.br /br /blockquoteRetail sales revenue in Bulgaria declined by 25.7% in January from the same month of last year, the National Statistical Institute (wwwo.nsi.bg) said in a statement. The slump was attributed to a sharp decrease in retail sales of larger consumer goods, although a decline is normal for the beginning of each year. A major 31.5% drop was reported in sales of vehicles and technical maintenance. Revenue generated by non-food sales went up by 3.0% year-on-year, the data showed. Revenue from food, beverages and cigarettes sales showed a minor increase of 0.5%/blockquotebr /br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScTjk_QxfEI/AAAAAAAANK8/jf3e6HC7T7c/s1600-h/bulgaria+retail+sales+one.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315623684800609346" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 203px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScTjk_QxfEI/AAAAAAAANK8/jf3e6HC7T7c/s400/bulgaria+retail+sales+one.png" border="0" //abr /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScTjgTgDXKI/AAAAAAAANK0/97roK0o3zZw/s1600-h/bulgaria+retail+sales+2.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315623604334058658" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 206px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScTjgTgDXKI/AAAAAAAANK0/97roK0o3zZw/s400/bulgaria+retail+sales+2.png" border="0" //a!--more--br /br /So there is evidence of a sharp slowdown in retail sales, but at present that is all it is, a slowdown. So what about the rest of the economy? Well, if we come to look at industrial output, the situation is a lot clearer, since production is falling rapidly.br /br /blockquoteBulgaria's industrial output fell by 19% in January 2009 month-on-month, after rising by a monthly 1.7% in December, preliminary data of the National Statistics Institute (NSI) showed on Tuesday. This is the fourth drop in a row, causing the index to go below the 2006 levels. The industrial output index is mainly determined by the indicators of the processing industry, which dropped by 21,4% in January, compared to December 2008. There is a 66,5% decrease in the production of metal goods, excluding machines and appliances. In the production of non-metal goods the drop is by 42,1%, and in the food processing industry by 24,8%./blockquotebr /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScS0-6GKSPI/AAAAAAAANKc/lmDbYy2ux04/s1600-h/bulgraia+IP.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315572453044013298" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 203px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScS0-6GKSPI/AAAAAAAANKc/lmDbYy2ux04/s400/bulgraia+IP.png" border="0" //abr /br /As can be seen in the chart below, the output index is now somewhere round the level of summer 2006, and falling.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScS06YmpvCI/AAAAAAAANKU/oLb8ysjjHxY/s1600-h/bulgaria+IP+2.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315572375334009890" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 203px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScS06YmpvCI/AAAAAAAANKU/oLb8ysjjHxY/s400/bulgaria+IP+2.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /Construction is also falling, and has been slowing all through 2008.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScT4eo7KXlI/AAAAAAAANLM/8C059TZYeqk/s1600-h/bulgaria+construction+one.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315646665469353554" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 205px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScT4eo7KXlI/AAAAAAAANLM/8C059TZYeqk/s400/bulgaria+construction+one.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScT4Zth1QxI/AAAAAAAANLE/fMzyF8uAWFg/s1600-h/bulgaria+construction+two.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315646580805944082" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 205px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScT4Zth1QxI/AAAAAAAANLE/fMzyF8uAWFg/s400/bulgaria+construction+two.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /strongUnemployment Rising and GDP Slipping Back/strongbr /br /Bulgaria's unemployment rate has not spiked dramatically upward yet, but it is continuing to rise, and was up for the fifth consecutive month in a row in February, with 248,000 Bulgarians registering as unemployed, up by 7,000 over January. The average jobless rate for Bulgaria is now 6.69%, up by 0.9% since September.br /br /And while Bulgaria's gross domestic product still strongseems/strong to be growing, it was at the very best a close shave in Q4 2008 grew, since the economy grew by a preliminary 3,5% year on year, down from the 6.8% rate registered in the previous quarter. This is sharp enough to mean that the economy may actally have contracted on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis, but since the statistics office don't publish this level fo data we simply don't know (that is, an educated guess would be that it did contract, but I certainly couldn't swear to the fact).br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScT8tpiudNI/AAAAAAAANLU/pXXUmiSvfd8/s1600-h/bulgaria+GDP.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315651321379845330" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 203px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScT8tpiudNI/AAAAAAAANLU/pXXUmiSvfd8/s400/bulgaria+GDP.png" border="0" //abr /br /strongSharp Current Account Contraction/strongbr /br /According to the Bulgarian National Bank last week Bulgaria's current account deficit was EUR 439.7 M in January 2009, down from EUR 806.8 M in January 2008.br /br /blockquotePM Sergey Stanishev said "the country's deficit has begun rapidly shrinking which means that the economy has unsurprisingly slowed down," Bulgarian National Radio reported./blockquotebr /br /The current and capital account deficit was EUR 288.7 M in January compared to EUR 806.2 M recorded in the previous year.And January's trade deficit was EUR 339.3 M, narrowing from EUR 607.8 million in 2008. All this is consistent with a very sharp and rapid contraction of the economy, as imports collapse and fund flows dry up, rather than any positive news on exports. Exports fell by 27.2% to EUR 811.8 billion in January, while imports dropped by 33.2% to EUR 1.1 billion.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScTc5aXs3fI/AAAAAAAANKs/zyOHj9_YTlY/s1600-h/bulgaria+ca+deficit.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315616339093413362" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 226px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScTc5aXs3fI/AAAAAAAANKs/zyOHj9_YTlY/s400/bulgaria+ca+deficit.png" border="0" //abr /br /strongInflation Still A Problem/strongbr /br /Bulgarian inflation slowed again in February for the eighth consecutive month and hit 6 percent - down from the 7.1 percent registered in January, but prices are still rising far too fast for an economy which is slowing rapidly. Consumer prices gained 0.1 percent in the month.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScUQLCNzQ3I/AAAAAAAANLk/P8O8yLRa1VQ/s1600-h/bulgaria+CPI+1.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315672716940100466" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 233px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScUQLCNzQ3I/AAAAAAAANLk/P8O8yLRa1VQ/s400/bulgaria+CPI+1.png" border="0" //abr /br /And the core index - taking out food, energy, alchohol and tobacco - has almost stopped rising but has yet to fall. So we have had a significant period of price deflation, but we have yet to see price reductions, and these of course, as in the case of the Baltics, are vital for a country operating a currency peg which has seen a substantial loss in competitiveness.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScUQDejeIDI/AAAAAAAANLc/Owjiofxwq7o/s1600-h/bulgaria+CPI+2.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315672587108229170" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 231px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScUQDejeIDI/AAAAAAAANLc/Owjiofxwq7o/s400/bulgaria+CPI+2.png" border="0" //abr /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScVj6Nu_jQI/AAAAAAAANLs/-b8RGy_nK2E/s1600-h/bulgaria+reer.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5315764786951064834" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 232px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/ScVj6Nu_jQI/AAAAAAAANLs/-b8RGy_nK2E/s400/bulgaria+reer.png" border="0" //abr /br /strongMoody's Review/strongbr /br /The credit ratings agency Moody's this week affirmed Bulgaria's Baa3 local and foreign currency ratings, with a stable outlook, but said that Bulgaria's economy faced tough times this year.br /br /blockquote"Bulgaria is likely to experience a difficult recession in 2009 as the economy suffers from shrinking exports and slowing inflows of foreign capital," Moody's sovereign risk group analyst Kenneth Orchard said in a statement. "Nevertheless, many years of prudent fiscal policy and low debt mean that the government is well positioned to cope with the situation."/blockquotebr /br /Having averaged Budget surpluses of 2.7 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) since 2004, the Cabinet has strengthened its financial position, but the main threat did not come from the Government debt, which was a very low 14 per cent of GDP. Moody's argued Bulgaria's most pressing problem comes from the large quantity of private sector debt that has been accumulated and needs refinancing in 2009. Short-term external debt totalled around 13 billion euro at the end of 2008, which is equivalent to 40 per cent of GDP. Much of this debt is likely to be rolled over, but automatic re-financing can no longer be assumed in the current financial environment. The low Government debt is seen as a safety net, because it allows Bulgaria (like Latvia) to borrow funds to support the private sector and the currency board without immediately threatening the government's creditworthiness. The debt-to-GDP ratio could rise and still remain well below the EU average, according to Moody's.br /br /And as if to prove Moody's point Bulgaria announced during the week that it was going to borrow a further 50 million euros from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in 2009 than it did in 2008, in order to cope with the impact of the global financial crisis. Half of the 250 million euros total 2009 borrowing will go to local banks to spur corporate borrowing, EBRD President Thomas Mirow said. The rest will go toward energy efficiency projects, municipalities and direct lending to “sound companies.”br /br /So, to return to the start of this post, and the correction in the external imbalance, I would say there is plenty of evidence building up now that this is taking place, and that the process is starting to hurt. In which case I think the 5% GDP contraction Capital Economics forecast not only looks realistic, there seems to be significant downside risk attached to it.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/8991369883287712098-2346065236807192211?l=globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com'//div]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/do-they-have-parachutes-in-bulgaria/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Sell Satyam &#8211; Target Suspended &#8211; Analyst Blog</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/sell-satyam-target-suspended-analyst-blog/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/sell-satyam-target-suspended-analyst-blog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2009 21:42:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Zacks Market Commentaries</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stocks to Watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[(213) 595-1211;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[209-577-4888;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[209.577.4888;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[618-277-9173;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[618-277-9561;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[800-851-3449;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[818-735-3591;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aerotron Aircraft Radio Inc;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aerotron Ltd;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Athens]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Azerbaijan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Azerbaijan's Central Election Commission;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bangkok]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BANJA LUKA;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barclays Premier League;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boeing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boris Tadic;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bosnia;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brisbane]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[British Aircraft Corp.;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business to business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canon PowerShot S400 / IXUS 400 Digital Camera;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carnival]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chelsea Football Club;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clive Riddle;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[content management system;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Copthorne Hotel Stamford Bridge;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Croatia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Gray Inflator;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Direct search »]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dorset Regency hotel;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ebay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electronic technology;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Etihad Airways;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Etihad Holidays;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FAA CERTIFIED REPAIR STATION;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Aviation Administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Florence Cardinal;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FreeDB Import;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Coast;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Government of India;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greece]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greek islands;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[health management;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Heath Crawley;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Honeywell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hotel Arion Resort;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HTML]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hypnosis/meditation sleep tool;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Illinois]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Indian Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interim management;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Internet Access Publication]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kidde;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kollsman;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kuala Lumpur;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Logitech Cordless Headset 100ft Range Retail Wireless;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Beach;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Malaysia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MCOL;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media Centre;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Merlin Fit Chart;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Milorad Dodik;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modesto;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil-rich;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oregon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Patty Jamison;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peggy C. Frank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Portland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[premiere business-to-business publisher;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retail]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ROHO Group;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rolls-Royce;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sam Brown;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samsung 400PX 40 in. HDTV-Ready LCD TV;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sarajevo;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Satyam Computer Services Ltd.;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Serb-run Republika Srpska and Muslim-Croat Federation;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Serbia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shape fitting products;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Slovakia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Srecko Latal;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stipe Mesic;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sussex;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tanja Topic;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The New York Times Company;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Timothy Johnson;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tony Gauci;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TRW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unspeakable product;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vida Fresca;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web forums]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web Service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.mcol.com/about.htm;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Xml]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zacks Market Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/18338/Sell+Satyam+-+Target+Suspended+-+Analyst+Blog</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<br />With the arrest of both <span style="font-weight: bold;">Satyam Computer Services Ltd.'s</span> (<a href="http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/say">SAY</a>) ex-CEO and ex-CFO, the interim management announced that it'll make all attempts to clean up its books and appoint a new auditor. A new Board has been formed to spearhead the task of salvaging the company, and three members have already been appointed by the Government of India itself.<br /><br />A majority stake sale is currently being undertaken, and the Board of Directors announced that it will release the Request for Proposals (RFP) to all registered bidders. Previously, the Indian government announced that it would not step up to help Satyam with any financial assistance, citing the company's current receivables of approx. $350 million.<br /><br />Given the recent developments, we had earlier downgraded SAY shares to a Sell and have suspended our estimates and target price.
<br /><a href="http://register.zacks.com/ucd/step1.php?ALERT=YAHOO_ZR&#38;d_alert=rd_final_rank&#38;ADID=GENSYND_ZER&#38;t=SAY">Read the full analyst report on "SAY"</a><br /><a href="http://www.zacks.com">Zacks Investment Research</a><br />]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/stock-watch/sell-satyam-target-suspended-analyst-blog/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>And Then There’s This…Wednesday, March 18th, 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/and-then-there%e2%80%99s-this%e2%80%a6wednesday-march-18th-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/and-then-there%e2%80%99s-this%e2%80%a6wednesday-march-18th-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2009 20:27:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Doug Casey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[(213) 595-1211;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[209-577-4888;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[209.577.4888;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[618-277-9173;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[618-277-9561;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[800-851-3449;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[818-735-3591;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aerotron Aircraft Radio Inc;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aerotron Ltd;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[American Express]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AngloGold Ashanti;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Azerbaijan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Azerbaijan's Central Election Commission;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bad Boy Barrick Gold;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BANJA LUKA;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank of Nova Scotia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barrick;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bill Murphy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boeing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boris Tadic;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bosnia;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[British Aircraft Corp.;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business to business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canon PowerShot S400 / IXUS 400 Digital Camera;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carnival]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citigroup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clive Riddle;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Company]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[content management system;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[contrarian profits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Croatia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Gray Inflator;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Direct search »]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ebay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electronic technology;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eliot Spitzer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EUR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European CB;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Central Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FAA CERTIFIED REPAIR STATION;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Aviation Administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Florence Cardinal;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FreeDB Import;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GARDENS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[health management;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Heath Crawley;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Honeywell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HTML]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hypnosis/meditation sleep tool;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Illinois]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Internet Access Publication]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jpmorgan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Julius Baer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kidde;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kollsman;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Logitech Cordless Headset 100ft Range Retail Wireless;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Beach;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marc Faber]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Hulbert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MCOL;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media Centre;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Merlin Fit Chart;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Milorad Dodik;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modesto;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil-rich;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oregon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Patty Jamison;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paulson and Co.;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peggy C. Frank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Portland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[premiere business-to-business publisher;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prudential]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retail]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reuters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ROHO Group;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rolls-Royce;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sam Brown;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samsung 400PX 40 in. HDTV-Ready LCD TV;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sarajevo;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Serb-run Republika Srpska and Muslim-Croat Federation;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Serbia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shape fitting products;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Slovakia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Srecko Latal;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stipe Mesic;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sussex;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Switzerland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tanja Topic;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ted Butler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The New York Times Company;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Timothy Johnson;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TRW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unspeakable product;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vida Fresca;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vince Borg;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web forums]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web Service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.mcol.com/about.htm;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Xml]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=15053</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[pNot much happened in gold on Tuesday. The top was in around 10:00 a.m. in London trading#8230;just like Monday. From there it got sold off a bit#8230;and the boyz in New York finished the job. Volume in gold yesterday was light#8230;81,377 contracts less a switch effect of 4,870./p
pWith some notable exceptions, gold is never allowed to rise into, or during, an FOMC meeting./p


tr
a href="javascript:openKKCImage('1237374974-gold31.gif',635,405);"/a
/tr
tr
a style="text-decoration: none;" href="javascript:openKKCImage('1237374974-gold31.gif',635,405);"emclick to enlarge/em/a
/tr


pSilver#8217;s path was similar#8230;and one could be forgiven if one thought that Tuesday#8217;s price action looked suspiciously similar to Monday#8217;s. Silver#8217;s trading volume was extremely light./p


tr
a href="javascript:openKKCImage('1237374974-silver18.gif',635,405);"/a
/tr
tr
a style="text-decoration: none;" href="javascript:openKKCImage('1237374974-silver18.gif',635,405);"emclick to enlarge/em/a
/tr


pMonday#8217;s gold activity brought a decline in open interest of 5,741 contracts. Silver o.i. actually rose 30 contracts. Cut-off for this Friday#8217;s COT is today, so whatever o.i. changes#8230;/p]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/and-then-there%e2%80%99s-this%e2%80%a6wednesday-march-18th-2009/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Resource Stock Roundup: Wednesday, March 18th, 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/resource-stock-roundup-wednesday-march-18th-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/resource-stock-roundup-wednesday-march-18th-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2009 19:41:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Doug Casey</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[(213) 595-1211;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[209-577-4888;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[209.577.4888;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[618-277-9173;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[618-277-9561;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[800-851-3449;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[818-735-3591;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aerotron Aircraft Radio Inc;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aerotron Ltd;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Azerbaijan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Azerbaijan's Central Election Commission;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baja Mining;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BANJA LUKA;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boeing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boris Tadic;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bosnia;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[British Aircraft Corp.;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[British Columbia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business to business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CAD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canon PowerShot S400 / IXUS 400 Digital Camera;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carnival]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clive Riddle;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[content management system;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[contrarian profits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Croatia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Gray Inflator;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Direct search »]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ebay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electronic technology;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchange]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FAA CERTIFIED REPAIR STATION;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Aviation Administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Florence Cardinal;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FreeDB Import;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[health management;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Heath Crawley;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Honeywell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HTML]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hypnosis/meditation sleep tool;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Illinois]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Internet Access Publication]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kidde;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kollsman;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lesotho]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Logitech Cordless Headset 100ft Range Retail Wireless;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Beach;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MCOL;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media Centre;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Merlin Fit Chart;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Milorad Dodik;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modesto;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil-rich;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oregon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Patty Jamison;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peggy C. Frank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Portland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[premiere business-to-business publisher;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retail]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ROHO Group;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rolls-Royce;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sam Brown;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samsung 400PX 40 in. HDTV-Ready LCD TV;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sarajevo;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Serb-run Republika Srpska and Muslim-Croat Federation;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Serbia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shape fitting products;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Slovakia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Srecko Latal;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stipe Mesic;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sussex;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tanja Topic;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The New York Times Company;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Timothy Johnson;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TRW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tsx]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TSX Venture Exchange]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unspeakable product;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vida Fresca;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web forums]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web Service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.mcol.com/about.htm;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Xml]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=15051</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[p class="maintextDRP"Equities continued to march higher during Tuesday’s session on the Canadian Markets as investors smell an economic recovery in the making. For the tale of the tape, the TSX Exchange gained 2.06%, while the TSX Gold Index gave back 1.8% and the TSX Venture Exchange, Canada’s largest junior exploration bourse, added 0.68% with the decliners beating out the advancers by a 358 to 343 margin on pathetic volume of 90 million shares traded./p
pMerger mania resumed with a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=Lucara+Diamond"Lucara Diamond/a proposing to marry a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=CVE:MTP"Motapa Diamonds/a in an all-share deal that would see Motapa getting 0.9055 of a Lucara share for each Motapa share. The move would consolidate the advanced Mothae project in Lesotho. Lucara ended the day flat at C$0.50, while Motapa added C$0.04#8230;/p]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/resource-stock-roundup-wednesday-march-18th-2009/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Shanghai Nong Gong Shang Supermarkets Drop Johnson  Johnson Baby Products</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-china/shanghai-nong-gong-shang-supermarkets-drop-johnson-johnson-baby-products/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-china/shanghai-nong-gong-shang-supermarkets-drop-johnson-johnson-baby-products/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2009 19:30:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>China Retail News</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[(213) 595-1211;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[209-577-4888;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[209.577.4888;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[618-277-9173;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[618-277-9561;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[800-851-3449;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[818-735-3591;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aerotron Aircraft Radio Inc;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aerotron Ltd;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Azerbaijan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Azerbaijan's Central Election Commission;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[baby bath products;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BANJA LUKA;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boeing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boris Tadic;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bosnia;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[British Aircraft Corp.;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[business to business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canon PowerShot S400 / IXUS 400 Digital Camera;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carnival]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clive Riddle;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Company]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[content management system;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Croatia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Gray Inflator;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Direct search »]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ebay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FAA CERTIFIED REPAIR STATION;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Aviation Administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Florence Cardinal;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FreeDB Import;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GARDENS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[health management;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Heath Crawley;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Honeywell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HTML]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hypnosis/meditation sleep tool;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Illinois]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Johnson  Johnson Baby;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kidde;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kollsman;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Logitech Cordless Headset 100ft Range Retail Wireless;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Long Beach;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MCOL;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media Centre;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Merlin Fit Chart;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Milorad Dodik;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modesto;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil-rich;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oregon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Patty Jamison;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peggy C. Frank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Portland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[premiere business-to-business publisher;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retail]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ROHO Group;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rolls-Royce;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sam Brown;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samsung 400PX 40 in. HDTV-Ready LCD TV;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sarajevo;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Serb-run Republika Srpska and Muslim-Croat Federation;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Serbia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shanghai]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shape fitting products;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Slovakia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Srecko Latal;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stipe Mesic;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sussex;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tanja Topic;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The New York Times Company;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TRW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unspeakable product;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vida Fresca;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wal Mart]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web forums]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Web Service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.mcol.com/about.htm;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Xml]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chinaretailnews.com/?p=2450</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Shanghai-based Nong Gong Shang Supermarkets has requested its 3,500 supermarkets and convenience stores to remove baby bath products produced by the American giant Johnson &#38; Johnson from their shelves after allegations that the products contain carcinogens.
According to reports in local Chinese media, the products concerned are still available in supermarkets such as Beijing Wu-Mart, Wal-Mart, [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-china/shanghai-nong-gong-shang-supermarkets-drop-johnson-johnson-baby-products/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>G20 Meeting Fails to Resolve U.S.-Eurozone Spending Conflict</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/g20-meeting-fails-to-resolve-us-eurozone-spending-conflict/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/g20-meeting-fails-to-resolve-us-eurozone-spending-conflict/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Mar 2009 15:00:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Don Miller</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angela Merkel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Associated Press]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Britain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brussels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[contrarian profits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EUR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[finance ministers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Frankfurter Allgemeine;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gordon Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jean-Dominique Giuliani;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mirek Topolanek;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paris]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Schuman Foundation;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Timothy  Geithner;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Us Treasury]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Washington]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=15029</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[pFinance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 nations, which account for more than 80% of the world economy, promised at a meeting Saturday to do “whatever is necessary” to fix the global economy.  /p
pHowever, Eurozone officials continued to put off a U.S. push for more coordinated government spending to stimulate economies./p
pKey players in the Eurozone, especially France and Germany, have rejected U.S. demands for spending increases to solve the recession, and said that recovery plans should focus on tighter regulation./p
pLast weekend’s meeting was intended to set the agenda for the group’s April 2 summit in London, which is being viewed as the acid test to determine whether the world’s leaders can find enough common ground for a#8230;/p]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/g20-meeting-fails-to-resolve-us-eurozone-spending-conflict/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Buy, Sell or Hold: Shipper C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. is Poised to Deliver Major Profits</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/buy-sell-or-hold-shipper-ch-robinson-worldwide-inc-is-poised-to-deliver-major-profits/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/buy-sell-or-hold-shipper-ch-robinson-worldwide-inc-is-poised-to-deliver-major-profits/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2009 14:09:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Congress]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[contrarian profits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corpus Christi Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Detroit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dow 30]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eden Prairie;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[grocery wholesaler;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Horacio Marquez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama administration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prague]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shipper C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sp 500]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Us Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=14989</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[pUnemployment is on the march, the plummeting housing market has yet to find a bottom and top U.S. companies in the banking and automaking sectors remain downright shaky. /p
pAnd yet the U.S. stock market - as a discounting mechanism - experienced a robust rally last week, a href="http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/13/briefing-americas-closer-markets-equity-financial.html" target="_blank"posting  a four-day rally/a that saw the a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI" target="_blank"Dow Jones Industrial  Average/a gain 9.0% and the a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX" target="_blank"Standard #38; Poor’s 500  Index/a a resounding 10.7%./p
pUnfortunately, in an economy that has been deeply hurt by huge imbalances that took years to build, we are left with key sectors that are operating in a distress mode. They are now at the mercy of the aggressive government actions being taken in an attempt to whip them back into shape./p
pOf course, it is#8230;/p]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/buy-sell-or-hold-shipper-ch-robinson-worldwide-inc-is-poised-to-deliver-major-profits/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How Not To Manage Eastern Europe&#8217;s Financial Crisis (Part 1)</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/how-not-to-manage-eastern-europes-financial-crisis-part-1/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/how-not-to-manage-eastern-europes-financial-crisis-part-1/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2009 19:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angela Merkel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austrian government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brussels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bulgaria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[communications mess-up;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edward Hugh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hefty bank bailout;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latvia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lithuania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[particular banking groups;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Krugman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Slovakia]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-1374541699518799230</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /blockquote"Saying that the situation is the same for all central and eastern European states, I don't see that......you cannot compare the dire situation in Hungary with that of other countries."br /Angela Merkel, Brussels, Sunday/blockquotebr /br /blockquote"Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way"br /Tolstoy/blockquotebr /br /blockquoteIn Europe, leaders rejected pleas for a comprehensive rescue plan for troubled East European economies, promising instead to provide “case-by-case” support. That means a slow dribble of funds, with no chance of reversing the downward spiral.br /Paul Krugman/blockquotebr /br /Bank regulators from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Slovakia met today and issued a joint statement, ostensibly to reduce the some of the impact of what they term "alarmist comments" from the Austrian government about how the regional banking system is now in such a precarious state that it requires urgent action at EU level to prevent meltdown. The Austrian government are, of course, concerned about the impact of any meltdown on their own banking system. The result of this "reassuring statement" can be seen in the chart below (10 years, HUF vs Euro).br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sa7HE_1qukI/AAAAAAAAM8k/T3JIDxL-gxo/s1600-h/huf.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5309399899386329666" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 310px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sa7HE_1qukI/AAAAAAAAM8k/T3JIDxL-gxo/s400/huf.png" border="0" //abr /br /Within minutes of the joint statement Hungary's currency plummeted to an all-time low against the euro and  to a 6.5-yr low versus the US dollar. In fact the HUF rapidly depreciated to 312 per euro from 307.50 before climbing back in later trading to 310. And the reason for this swift reaction? Hungary was not invited to join the statement. As the forint plunged, Hungary 's banking regulator hurriedly signed up to the statement, blaming the original omission on a communications mess-up, but the damage was already done. br /br /blockquote“Each of the CEE Member States has its own specific economic and financial situation and these countries do not constitute a homogenous region. It is thus important first to distinguish between the EU Member States and the non-EU countries and also to clarify issues specific to particular countries or particular banking groups." br /br /Well this just takes us back to Tolstoy, each of them have their own specific problems, but the underlying reality is that they all face problems, and are vulnerable, each in their own way./blockquotebr /br /Hungary's economic fundamentals are clearly much weaker than those to be found in the Czech Republic and Poland as things stand, but what about Bulgaria and Romania? And the Czech Republic and Poland are about to have a pretty hard time of it as a result of their export dependence on the West, and Poland has the unwinding of the zloty options scandal still to hit the front pages. So there is plenty of food for thought here before throwing Hungary to the wolves. A default in Hungary could very easily lead to contagion elsewhere, and then the impact in the West is very hard to foresee. We should not be playing round with lighted matches right next to our fireworks stock. "Hey, it's dark in here" and then "boom".br /br /Yesterday a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchivesid=aUb.IAK7Ei4Y"it was Latvia's turn/a, and the cost of protecting against a Latvian default (Latvia is the first European Union member priced at so- called distressed levels) rose to a record following the announcement that the unemployement level rose from 8.3% in December to 9.5% in January, the highest level in nearly nine years.  In fact credit-default swaps linked to Latvia increased nine basis points to an all-time high of 1,109 basis points, according to CMA Datavision in London. The cost is above the 1,000 level, breached last week, that investors consider distressed, and is now about 270 basis points above contracts linked to Lithuania, the next-highest EU member. br /br /So two countries are being systematically detached here - Latvia and Hungary - and statements by EU leaders are unwittingly aiding and abetting the process. But we should all remember, after they have eaten Latvia and Hungary for breakfast, the financial markets will undoubtedly chew on other luckless countries over lunch (Romania's Q4 GDP data a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchivesid=aUb.IAK7Ei4Y"was out today/a, and it was a shocker, and a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchivesid=aKUsRZp5lJRM"SP have already said/a they are "closely monitoring" the situation), before perhaps moving on to bigger game for supper. br /br /And we should remember here, no one is too big to fall, and I have already been warning about the gravity of Germany's situation, with a rapidly ageing population, a hefty bank bailout of its own to swallow, and total export dependence for GDP growth. Final data from Markit economics out today showed that Germany's composite PMI fell to 36.3 in February from 38.0 in January. That was  the lowest level registered since the series began in January 1998. And it means that the German economy - which is highly interlocked with the whole of Eastern Europe (Austria holds the finance and Germany the industrial exposure) - is certainly contracting more rapidly in the first quarter of this year than it was in the last quarter of 2008, and may well contract in whole year 2009 by something in the order of 5%. So maybe someone over there in Germany should be reading the poem you will see below aloud to "our Angela" right now (Oh, and if you don't speak German, a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came..."you can find a translation here/a).br /br /br /br /br /br /br /br /br /br /Als die Nazis die Kommunisten holten,br /habe ich geschwiegen;br /ich war ja kein Kommunist. br /Als sie die Sozialdemokraten einsperrten,br /habe ich geschwiegen;br /ich war ja kein Sozialdemokrat.br /br /Als sie die Gewerkschafter holten,br /habe ich nicht protestiert;br /ich war ja kein Gewerkschafter.br /br /Als sie die Juden holten,br /habe ich geschwiegen;br /ich war ja kein Jude.br /br /Als sie mich holten,br /gab es keinen mehr, der protestieren konnte.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/how-not-to-manage-eastern-europes-financial-crisis-part-1/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What This Weekend&#8217;s EU Summit Did And Did Not Achieve</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/what-this-weekends-eu-summit-did-and-did-not-achieve/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/what-this-weekends-eu-summit-did-and-did-not-achieve/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Mar 2009 17:23:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angela Merkel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asa href;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barcelona]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brussels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bulgaria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Claus Vistesen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EBRD;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edward Hugh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Estonia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EUR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eurogroup;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[european commission]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eurozone banking system]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eurozone finance ministers;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ferenc Gyurcsány]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HTML]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Bank for Reconstruction and Development]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investment Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ireland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jean-Claude Juncker;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jimmy Cliff;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latvia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Le Figaro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lithuania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[London]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luxembourg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moody's Investors Service]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nicolas Sarkozy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nigel Rendell;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Paul Krugman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royal Bank of Canada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Serbia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the Economist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The World Bank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thomas Mirow;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Turkey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ukraine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Western Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wolfgang Munchau]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-3354516790142407503</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Edward Hugh: Barcelona br /br /Well reading the press this morning it would be fairly easy to reach the conclusion that nothing really happened yesterday in Brussels, and that a great opportunity was lost. The latter may finally be true, but the former most certainly is not. br /br /Let's look first at what was not decided on Sunday. The leaders of the 27 member countries in the European Union most certainly did not vote to back a proposal from Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany for a 180-billion-euro ($228 billion) aid package for central and eastern Europe. They did not back it because it was not even seriously on the agenda at this point. These people move slowly and we need to talk them throught one step at a time. So what was on the agenda. EU bonds for one, and a href="http://edwardhughtoo.blogspot.com/2009/02/let-east-into-eurozone-now.html"accelerated euro membership for the East for a second/a. And once we have the EU bonds firmly in place, then that will be the time to decide how we might use the extra shooting power they will bring us (boosting the ECB balance sheet would be one serious option they should consider, see forthcoming post from me and Claus Vistesen). That is when the emergency blood transfusion  Gyurcsany was rooting for might come into play, but on this, as on so many items, the details of how we do what we do as well as the "what we do" will become important, so the moves we do take need to be well thought out, and systematic, they need to get to the roots of the problem, and not simply respond to problems on a piecemeal, reactive basis.!--more--br /br /Asa href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/02/failing-the-test/" Paul Krugman puts it/a "In Europe, leaders rejected pleas for a comprehensive rescue plan for troubled East European economies, promising instead to provide “case-by-case” support. That means a slow dribble of funds, with no chance of reversing the downward spiral." Amen to that!br /br /But let's look at little bit deeper at what has been decided, or if you prefer, at what has been floated, and may be "decided" at the next meet up. Well for one, a href="http://www.euronews.net/en/article/01/03/2009/eu-leaders-say-no-to-protectionism/"we have promised not to be protectionist/a, and for another, The World Bank, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and The European Investment Bank (EIB) have launched a two-year plan to lend up to 24.5 billion euros ($31.2 billion) in Central and Eastern Europe. This sounds a bit like trying to drain an Ocean with a teaspoon, and it is, so predictably the financial markets were not too impressed, expecially when they learned that not much of what was promised was going to be new money  (as opposed to theacceleration of existing commitments), and especially when we take this sum and compare it with the likely quantities which are needed to "take the bull by the horms". EBRD President Thomas Mirow (who is more likely to give a low side estimate than a high side one) recentlly told the French newspaper Le Figaro that in his view Eastern European banks could need some $150 billion in recapitalisation and $200 billion in refinancing to stave off the risk of a banking failure in the region. At least.br /br /blockquote"(It) sounds like a lot of money, but when (commercial) banks have lent Eastern Europe about 1.7 trillion dollars, 25 billion is peanuts," said Nigel Rendell, emerging markets strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in London. "Ultimately we will have to get a much bigger package and a coordinated response from the IMF, the European Union and maybe the G7."/blockquotebr /br /So let's now move on to the positive side of the balance sheet, since as we know our leaders are a slowish bunch when it comes to grasping what is actually going on here, and an even slower group when it comes to acting on that knowledge once it has been acquired. The biggest plus to come out of last weekend's thrash is most definitely the fact that the idea of accelerating membership of the eurozone for the Eastern countries has now started to gain traction, if with no-one else then at least with Luxembourg Prime Minister (and Finance Minister, he is a busy man) Jean-Claude Juncker, aka "Mr Euro", who was a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSL154742720090301"quoted by Reuters/a on his way into the meeting saying he did not expect any early change to accession criteria for the single currency.br /br /blockquote"I don't think we can change the accession criteria to the euro overnight. This is not feasible," Juncker told reporters as he arrived for a summit where non-euro eastern countries are due to call for accession procedures to be accelerated after their local currencies have taken a hammering on markets./blockquotebr /br /While in the news conference following the meeting a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSL166167620090301"he said that there was now a consensus/a that  the two-year stability test required for a currency of a country hoping to join the euro zone should be discussed. br /br /blockquote"I can understand that there may be a slight question mark over the condition that one needs to be member of the monetary system (ERM2) for two years, we will discuss this calmly," Juncker told a news conference after a meeting of EU leaders.br //blockquotebr /br /So something actually went on during the meeting, even if we are largely left guessing about what. Angela Merkel also left a similar impression that movement was taking place. "There are requests to enter ERM 2 faster," Merkel is quoted as saying. "We can have a look at that."br /br /Now I have already spelt out at some length why I think the Eastern Countries should be offered accelerated membership of the eurozone forthwith (a href="http://edwardhughtoo.blogspot.com/2009/02/let-east-into-eurozone-now.html"see this post/a) as has Wolfgang Munchau (a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/06a45f2a-0118-11de-8f6e-000077b07658.html"in this FT article here/a). br /br /The Economist, a href="http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13184655"in a relatively sensible leader/a which I have already referred to, divides the Eastern countries into three groups. Firstly there are those countries that are a long way from joining the EU, such as Ukraine, Turkey and Serbia. As  the Economist points out, while it would be foolhardy practically and hard-hearted ethically to simply stand back and watch, European institutions are pretty limited in what they can do apart from offereing some timely financial help or some sound institutional advice, and it is entirely appropriate that the main burden of pulling these countries back from the brink should fall on the International Monetary Fund. br /br /Then there are those East and Central European Countries who are themselves members of the Union, and here it is the EU that must take the leading role. A first group of these is constituted by the Baltic trio (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and Bulgaria, who have currencies which are effectively tied to the euro, either through currency boards, or pegged exchange rates. Simply abandoning these pegs without euro support would both bankrupt the large chunks of their economies that have borrowed in euros and deal a huge psychological blow to public confidence in the whole idea of independent statehood. Yet devalue they must (either via internal deflation, or by an outright breaking of the peg) and either road is what Jimmy Cliff would have called a hard one to travel. As the Economist itself suggests, these countries have suffered the most painful part of being in the euro zone—the inability to devalue and regain competitiveness—without getting the most substantial benefits of participation, so although none of them will meet the Maastricht treaty’s criteria for euro entry any time soon (and since they are tiny - the Baltics have a population of barely 7m, and Bulgaria is hardly bigger), letting them directly adopt the euro ought not to set an unwelcome precedent for others and should certainly not damage confidence in the single currency (any more than it already is, that is).br /br /On the other hand unilateral adoption of the euro is a rather more difficult issue for the third group of countries, those who are EU members, are not in the eurozone and have floating exchange rates: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. None of these is here and now,  tomorrow, ready for the tough discipline of a single currency that rules out any future devaluation, and they are large enough collectively (around 80 million) that their premature entry could expose the euro to more turbulence than it already has on its plate. But so could simply leaving the situation as is, since if these economies enter a sharp contraction (more on this in a coming post) then the loan defaults are only going to present similar problems for the eurozone banking system as their currencies slide. The big vulnerability for Western Europe from the Polish, Hungarian and Romanian economies, arises from the large volume of Euro and CHF denominated debt taken on by firms and households, mainly from foreign-owned banks. As the Economist puts it "what once seemed a canny convergence play now looks like a barmy risk, for both the borrowers and the banks, chiefly Italian and Austrian, that lent to them".br /br /So we now have several EU leaders opening the door for the first time to the possibility of fast-track membership of the eurozone. As we have seen German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after the summit that we  "could consider" accelerating the candidacy process, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that "the debate is open", and  Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, said he was willing "to calmly discuss" such a possibility. So the debate is open. When will the next meeting be? On Sunday I hope. A week in all this is a very long time for reflection in this hectic world. We need proposals, and concrete ones for how to move forward here. Especially since at the present time all our attentions seem to be focusing on the East, and there is also the South and the West (the UK and Ireland) to think about. Perhaps our leaders will be able to make time from their crowded agendas for a series of mid-week meetings on this topic.br /br /And while the leaders dither, the markets react, and a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083sid=a12X2M5Abt2Urefer=currency"as Bloomberg reports/a the dollar surges as everyone seeks a safe haven during the coming storm.br /br /blockquoteThe dollar rose to the highest level since April 2006 against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners.... and .... The euro dropped to a one-week low against the greenback as European Union leaders vetoed Hungary’s proposal for 180 billion euros ($227 billion) of loans to former communist economies in eastern Europe. The Swedish krona fell to a record versus the euro on speculation the Baltic region’s borrowers may default, and the Hungarian forint and Polish zloty tumbled. br /br /The Hungarian forint led eastern European currencies lower today, falling 3.1 percent to 243.86, while Poland’s zloty lost 3 percent to 3.7796. The forint fell to a 6 1/2-year low of 246.32 on Feb. 17 as Moody’s Investors Service said it may cut the ratings of several banks with units in eastern Europe. The zloty touched 3.9151 the next day, the weakest since May 2004. br /br /EU leaders spurned Hungary’s request for aid at a summit in Brussels yesterday. Growth in Poland, the biggest eastern European economy, will slow to 2 percent, the slackest pace since 2002, the European Commission forecasts. /blockquote]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/what-this-weekends-eu-summit-did-and-did-not-achieve/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Saying “NO” To Eastern Europe</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/saying-%e2%80%9cno%e2%80%9d-to-eastern-europe/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/saying-%e2%80%9cno%e2%80%9d-to-eastern-europe/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Mar 2009 14:15:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[American International Group]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank solvency;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ben bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BRL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CAD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Caroline Baum]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[contrarian profits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[coronary thrombosis;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Department Of Commerce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DKK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EUR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve System]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Florida]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FX Concepts Inc.;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gbp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HKD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HUF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[INR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Insurance Giant]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Taylor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jpy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Koruna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peso]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PLN;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SEK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tax accounting process&;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Wall Street Journal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street Journal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ZAR]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=14373</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[pDollar continues to rally#8230;  John Taylor buys dollars#8230;  Canada sees a deficit!  More bailout funding#8230;                                             And Now#8230; Today#8217;s Pfennig!br /
Good day#8230; And a Marvelous Monday to you! Welcome to March too! Here and a lot of the country saw March come in like a lion, which means it should go out like a lamb, right? Let#8217;s hope it begins turning in that direction before month-end! 9 days before I leave for Florida, the countdown begins!/p
pWell#8230; The currencies continue to trade heavy under the pressure of the dollar, and the #8220;flight to safety#8221; in Treasuries#8230; The euro has lost the 1.26 handle and continues to look weaker and weaker all the time. The latest move down came as a result of new#8230;/p]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/saying-%e2%80%9cno%e2%80%9d-to-eastern-europe/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How Credit-Crippled Europeans Could Sink Your 401k</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/how-credit-crippled-europeans-could-sink-your-401k/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/how-credit-crippled-europeans-could-sink-your-401k/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Feb 2009 14:06:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bloomberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[contrarian profits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Der  Standard;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[France]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[German and Italian;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Goes South;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intensive Care Unit;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josef Pröll;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[metal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prague]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vienna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warsaw]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=14045</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[pIf the global economy were a hospital patient, you’d definitely find it in the Intensive Care Unit. /p
pIt’s not on life support just yet, but it certainly finds itself in an increasingly precarious position, due to the numerous negative factors swirling around the financial world./p
pOne of these factors is something you might not be aware of, given the furor here in the U.S. It’s happening half a world away over in Eastern Europe and is just beginning to get some attention now./p
pSo pack your bags and I’ll fill you in…/p
pstrongPain In Prague And Poland/strong/p
pIn Eastern Europe, the economic problems are two-fold…/p
p1.       The region is experiencing a similar downturn to the one in the U.S./p
p2.      Local currencies are enduring a significant#8230;/p]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/how-credit-crippled-europeans-could-sink-your-401k/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Debt Reckoning Looms in Eastern Europe&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/debt-reckoning-looms-in-eastern-europe/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/debt-reckoning-looms-in-eastern-europe/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Feb 2009 12:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sean Maher</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltic states]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit rating agency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[exposed banks;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moody's]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Raffeisen Bank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Romania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Slovakia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sparked fresh concern;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swedbank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[www.deadcatsbouncing.com/span;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1897020887579135393.post-1224887817490101332</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[div align="justify"strongemI warned way back in June 2008 of the dangers of a potential economic crisis in Eastern Europe/em/strong in a href="http://deadcatsbouncing.blogspot.com/2008/06/eastern-europe-next-bursting-bubble.html"span style="color:#990000;"Eastern Europe: The Next Bursting Bubble?/span/a and the global economic deterioration since then has hugely increased the risks of implosion. Two weeks ago, I indicated the downside risks to Eurozone banks and the Euro itself from exposure to the region. A report this week from Moody’s, the credit rating agency, saying it could downgrade banks with subsidiaries in Eastern Europe, has sparked fresh concern over the Eurozone banking sector, leading to spiking CDS spreads for the most exposed banks such as UniCredit (45% exposure in risk-weighted assets to EE) and Swedbank (29%). emstrongThe chart below, based on BIS statistics, illustrates the debt exposure of European banks to each Eastern European economy/strong/em and Austria stands out as having disproportionate exposure relative to the size of its own economy, particularly to the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary; Raffeisen Bank has 54% of assets tied up in the region, while Erste has 38%. If these economies tumble, they will take Austria with them. Swedish banks are also uncomfortably exposed to the Baltic states, which are in probably the worst economic shape in the region. Currency markets are reflecting these fears. Hungary’s forint has fallen to an all-time low this week and Poland’s zloty slumped to the lowest in five years on plunging industrial output. As 50% of all loans to the private sector in Poland are in foreign currencies (generally the Euro) borrowers face a severe debt shock after the 40pc fall of the zloty against the euro since August. emstrongspan style="font-family:trebuchet ms;"This article continues at /span/strong/ema href="http://www.deadcatsbouncing.com/"emstrongspan style="font-family:trebuchet ms;color:#990000;"www.deadcatsbouncing.com/span/strong/em/a./divdiv align="justify"/divdiv align="justify"/divdiv class="feedflare"
a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=djpP2R.Q"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?i=djpP2R.Q" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=xyvyz9.Q"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?i=xyvyz9.Q" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=py9xLk.Q"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?i=py9xLk.Q" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=QBA9Dw.Q"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?i=QBA9Dw.Q" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=DTj6UD.q"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?i=DTj6UD.q" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=wPFSkE.q"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?i=wPFSkE.q" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=be426n.Q"img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?i=be426n.Q" border="0"/img/a
/divimg src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets/~4/541687961" height="1" width="1"/]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/market-commentary/debt-reckoning-looms-in-eastern-europe/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Central Europe&#8217;s Manufacturing And Consumers In A State Of Shock</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/central-europes-manufacturing-and-consumers-in-a-state-of-shock/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/central-europes-manufacturing-and-consumers-in-a-state-of-shock/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Feb 2009 14:26:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Edward Hugh</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Abn Amro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edward Hugh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GKI;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungarian Association of Logistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Markit Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PMI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Purchasing and Inventory;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trevor Balchin;]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8991369883287712098.post-4602159091397721000</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYbkemRvI3I/AAAAAAAAMhs/IGjYLmJSzj4/s1600-h/eu+confidence+index.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5298173225970115442" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 234px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYbkemRvI3I/AAAAAAAAMhs/IGjYLmJSzj4/s400/eu+confidence+index.png" border="0" //abr /br /Central Europe's economies continued to contract in January - lead by their manufacturing industries - under the combined weight of a credit crunch and a slump in demand for their exports. My feeling as all three economies - Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary - are now in recession. Hungary's is clearly the worst case, and events are moving rapidly and negatively there, but the slowdown in the Czech Economy is also very pronounced, and Poland seems finally to be falling into line, following some internal financial chaos back in October. Based on back of the envelope type calculations derived from the PMIs I would say their economies were contracting at the following pace in January.br /br /strong                Q-o-Q    Y-o-Ybr /Hungary                  -1%      -4%br /br /Poland                  -0.7%     -3%br /br /Czech Republic          -1%       -4%/strongbr /br /br /These are only provisional assessments based on the PMIs and Consumer Confidence Indexes. They will be subject to calibration as we move forward and receive the real data, but all this should give us some general idea of what is happening, something which is badly needed in view of the suddenness of the change.br /br /strongHungary PMI/strongbr /br /Hungary's manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) fell once again to a all-time low of 38.6 in January, down from 40.8 in December, according to the Hungarian Association of Logistics, Purchasing and Inventory Management (HALPIM) today. Any PMI index figure above 50 indicates expansion while a figure below 50 shows contraction in economic activity. The index hasd been above the critical 50 mark for more than three years before it dropped below (to 42.6) in October last year.br /br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYbgYgMBUXI/AAAAAAAAMhc/1Bv3k1ofTrE/s1600-h/hungary+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5298168723209802098" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYbgYgMBUXI/AAAAAAAAMhc/1Bv3k1ofTrE/s400/hungary+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /The January figure is the lowest recorded since September 1995 and is a further sharp drop from January. The last time the January index was below 50 was in 2005 (48.5) and then in 1997 (49.1), but these contraction were much softer.br /blockquote“In view of the current situation we can confidently say that the five month negative record of 1998 will be broken. We are facing the gravest crisis of the manufacturing industry in almost 15 years," the HALPIM said. /blockquotebr /br /pstrongGKI Confidence Index/strong/pbr /br /Economic sentiment also plunged in January with the GKI index falling to a record. The overall index fell to minus 39.8, the lowest since measuring began in 1996, from minus 36.7 in December. The sub components for business and consumer confidence also fell to new lows.br /br /The outlook for industrial production and orders led a decline in the business confidence index to minus 30.5 from minus 28.2 in December. The outlook for export orders improved “minimally,”. Fifty-eight percent of exports are sold in the euro region, which is in its worst recession since the single currency began trading a decade ago. Concern about future job losses dragged the consumer confidence index to a record of minus 66.1 from minus 60.8 in December.br //pa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYbHTkNUEYI/AAAAAAAAMgU/5NOaG9Be0CI/s1600-h/hungary+GKI+confidence.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5298141150598926722" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 237px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYbHTkNUEYI/AAAAAAAAMgU/5NOaG9Be0CI/s400/hungary+GKI+confidence.png" border="0" //abr /strongPolish PMI/strongbr /br /Morale in Poland's industrial sector rose for the first time in almost a year in January, but output growth remained mired firmly in negative territory, according to a purchasing managers' index survey published Monday. The survey of 300 industrial companies prepared by Markit for ABN AMRO showed Polish manufacturing PMI increased to 40.3 in January, from 38.3 in December. This is an improvement, but the contraction is still a strong one.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYb8LcF7jcI/AAAAAAAAMh0/zT0hucmLgeo/s1600-h/poland+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5298199285097795010" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYb8LcF7jcI/AAAAAAAAMh0/zT0hucmLgeo/s400/poland+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /blockquote"Though slightly improved from the exceptionally weak December data, the latest survey findings underline the headwinds confronting Polish manufacturers in January. Output, new orders and employment all contracted sharply and, overall, the first batch of 2009 PMI data point to further aggressive rate cuts by the central bank in the first quarter following greater than expected reductions in the main policy rate in both November and December. Inflation concerns have eased despite the falling zloty, as the PMI showedfurther falls in price pressures in manufacturing." - Trevor Balchin, Economist at Markit Economics/blockquotestrongPolish Consumer Confidence/strongbr /br /Poles have become much more pessimistic about the outlook for their economy in recent months and the Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index  fell by 11 points to 84.17. The assessment of the  current economic climate suffered the most serious deterioration.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYbf1fHqT-I/AAAAAAAAMhU/uyKQHhPN0jA/s1600-h/poaland+IPSOS.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5298168121627660258" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 255px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYbf1fHqT-I/AAAAAAAAMhU/uyKQHhPN0jA/s400/poaland+IPSOS.png" border="0" //abr /br /(Please click over image for better viewing)br /br /The consumer rating of  the current economic climate plummeted by 15 points to hit 69.59. This is one of the lowest levels since Poland joined the European Union. Consumers are worried about the future of the Polish economy, and their worries are linked particularly to the situation on the job market. Currently some 52% of Poles expect unemployment figures to rise over the coming 12 months, while only 6% expect them to fall. This is a radical change, particularly when compared with January 2008, when only 13% expected a rise in unemployment and 39% expected a decline.br /br /The deterioration in consumer sentiment was also to be seen  in the ratings for willingness to buy, which in January fell by 8 points to 93.88 (the lowest level for 3 years). In particular expectations regarding the material situation of one's own household deteriorated. Ratings of the current situation in regard to buying durables also weakened somewhat. Nevertheless, consumer appetite is far from dead, and there are more people still considering this a good time for buying than those who disagree.br /br /strongCzech Republic PMI/strongbr /br /br /Czech industry continued its steep decline in January with the Czech Purchasing Managers' Index falling to dropping below the 50 mark (to 31.5) for  the seventh consecutive month. As compared with December (32.7), the PMI was hit by series-record declines in new orders and employment, while deflationary pressure was also evident as both input and output prices continued to fall sharply, according to the report from Markit Economics and ABN Amro. The figure for output rose for the first time since September, to 29.5, indicating a slightly weaker rate of contraction than in December but still the second lowest in the survey's history.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYbWnY_wl4I/AAAAAAAAMg8/eh5lnVgE6DQ/s1600-h/czech+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5298157983861086082" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYbWnY_wl4I/AAAAAAAAMg8/eh5lnVgE6DQ/s400/czech+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /strongCzech Consumer Confidence/strongbr /br /In January 2009, the Czech economic sentiment indicator decreased by 3.2 points m-o-m (it was down by 8.6 points down in December). The business confidence indicator fell by 2.8 points and the consumer confidence indicator dropped 4.8 points. Compared to January 2008, the composite confidence indicator balance was down 30.8 points, the confidence of entrepreneurs is 34.7 points down and the confidence of consumers is down by 15 points. Indicators were thus at  their lowest levels in almost ten years.br /br /The survey taken among consumers in January indicates that, compared to December, consumers expect for the next twelve months worsening of the overall economic situation and a slight decrease in their own financial standing. In January, the share of respondents expecting a rise in unemployment increased again. The percentage of respondents planning to save money decreased. The consumer confidence indicator decreased by 4.8 points, m-o-m; it is by 15 points down, y-o-y.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYbilOJ2SjI/AAAAAAAAMhk/M1XytjY73qA/s1600-h/czech+cc.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5298171140730407474" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYbilOJ2SjI/AAAAAAAAMhk/M1XytjY73qA/s400/czech+cc.png" border="0" //a]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/central-europes-manufacturing-and-consumers-in-a-state-of-shock/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Why Latvia Needs To Devalue Soon &#8211; A Reply To Christoph Rosenberg</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-europe/why-latvia-needs-to-devalue-soon-a-reply-to-christoph-rosenberg/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-europe/why-latvia-needs-to-devalue-soon-a-reply-to-christoph-rosenberg/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Jan 2009 17:28:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manuel Alvarez-Rivera</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Argentina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltic states]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank bailout]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank bailout plans]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank bailouts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank problems;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank restructuring;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bankruptcy law]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ben bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bulgaria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[by-product]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cabinet of Ministers;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chrisoph;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christoph Rosenberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Claus Vistesen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodity Products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit ratings agencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eastern europe economy watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ecb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[emThe government;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Estonia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EU Commission]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EUR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiscal tools;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foreign bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[greenfield site;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HTML]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HUF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungarian government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iceland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF loan facility;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inevitable bank losses;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[insolvency law;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ireland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kenneth Orchard;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Latvia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lithuania]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LVL;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[machinery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mary Stokes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moody's]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National Tripartite Co-operation Council;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nils Melngailis;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Parex;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[policy solutions;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sweden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swedish Government]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[technology ladder;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[time horizon./ppThe bank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tyre rubber;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United Kingdom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[United States]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Western Europe]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1443720106009957151.post-4880981900387477966</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The IMF Senior Regional Representative For Central Europe and the Baltics, Christoph Rosenberg, recently a href="http://www.rgemonitor.com/euro-monitor/254975/why_the_imf_supports_the_latvian_currency_peg"took me to task on RGE Monitor about my Latvian devaluation proposal/a (as did a href="http://www.rgemonitor.com/economonitor-monitor/254905/devaluation_in_latvia_why_not"RGE's own Mary Stokes/a), and I would like now to take a closer look at some of the points they raise.br /br /In the first place, I would like to say that I obviously regard both Chrisoph and Mary as excellent economists, and I was in no way refering to them when I said that arguing in favour of sticking to the present currency peg constitutes trying to justify “virtually the unjustifiable” according to “the implicit consensus among thinking economists.” I do still hold that the consensus is with me, but that certainly does not mean I regard those who differ from me as "unthinking", and certainly hope I didn't give the impression that I was. And with that little "mea culpa", let combat begin.br /br /And what better way to do this than by looking at Christoph's own arguments, (see below, and I hope I am being fair), although before I actually get into this part, let me "fast forward" to what I see as the three central issues involved: the timing and duration of the correction (that we all agree is needed), the role of Latvia's special demographics, and the distribution of the impact of the eventual debt restructuring between external stakeholders (the EU fiscal structure and the foreign banks) and Latvian state finances.br /br /strongV Shaped or U Shaped?/strongbr /br /As I see it, some of the force of Christoph and Mary's argument lies in the idea that there is little possibility of Latvia being able to succesfully carry out a V shaped correction at the present time due to the hostile global environment, thus it is better (my words not theirs') for Latvia to "mark time" to some extent between now and (say) 2012 (when possibly the external environment will be returning to some sort of normality, again my feeling, not theirs), and I understand the force of this point, I really do, it's just that I don't think Latvia's social fabric will be able to withstand the sort of pressure it is going to be put under (and a href="http://www.rgemonitor.com/euro-monitor/255121/violence_erupts_in_latvia"Edward Harrison has already highlighted this part/a, as I have in my longer post a href="http://globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com/2009/01/long-and-difficult-road-to-wage-cuts-as.html"on the difficulties associated with introducing generalised wage reductions/a). The IMF report on the Stand-By Arrangement stresses time and again that political consensus is vital to carrying through the proposed "fixed-peg correction", and yet it seems as if a href="http://www.rgemonitor.com/euro-monitor/255306/political_unrest_on_the_rise_in_economically_troubled_hotspots"we are already running into difficulties on this front/a.br /br /br /Also, and to try to keep this simple and as non-technical as possible, we are simply dealing here with trade offs, trade offs between the accumulation of bankruptcy and non-performing loans on the one hand, and the attraction of new FDI for manufacturing industry and getting growth through exports moving on the other. The trick is to get the balance right.br /br /Now the U shaped recovery puts greater weight on the former, while the V shape one puts it on the latter, and I think the choice is as simple as that really. But I would also add in a further factor (to be explored a little more below), and this is the cost of waiting (there is strongalways/strong a cost to waiting) in terms of the demographic transition Latvia is living through (I am thinking about both out-migration and the impact of population ageing and Latvia's declining potential labour force). I suspect that part of the difference between us lies in the fact that Christoph and I attach different values to the cost of waiting in the Latvian case, and the roots of this difference lie, at least in part, on the differing theoretical frameworks we are using. To be blunt, I do not live in what I consider to be the rather timeless and abstract world of neo-classical steady-state growth and convergence theory (for all of which we have precious little meaningful empirical evidence across the EU27), but in the real historical time of ageing and shrinking populations, non-linear growth trajectories and windows of opportunity.br /br /Latvia has between now and 2020 to get rich before it gets starts to accumulate so many age-dependency-related on-costs that it may, if it doesn't put in a well-founded spurt now, quite simply never close the gap. So Latvia is living in real historical time, and not an abstract theoretical one, and in the former, if you don't seize the opportunities you are offered with both hands, then you may well simply end up as tyre rubber on the highway of history, enjoying momentary fame only to end up as a historical irrelevance. So although history doesn't simply keep repeating itself in a simple circular (or Poincaréan) fashion, tragedy is always tragedy, whether it is the first, second, third or nth time round.br /br /But perhaps "marking time" isn't really a fair analogy either, since obviously Christoph feels that the time in question can be put to good use - implementing structural reforms, rewriting the bankruptcy law to make debt restructuring easier, reducing wages and prices, etc, etc - but my worry is that all this will take place against a strongly contractionary atmosphere, with strong reductions not only in real GDP but also in nominal GDP - I mean if we are talking about a 5% plus contraction in real GDP, and (let's say, just as an example) a 3% reduction in the general price level, then we are talking about a drop of about 8% in the nominal value of GDP in 2009, and about another very large one in 2010, so let's be clear, these are contractions of a large order of magnitude (not far off the US 1930 - 33 ones) and my most serious doubt is about the ability of the Latvian social consensus to hold together through this, especially if there is no visible improvement in general conditions as a result. You need some sort of carrot, and not just good will.br /br /strongWage freezes Are more Palatable than Wage Cutsbr //strongbr /Now it may seem strange to adduce arguments from evolutionary psychology (not Evolutionary Psychology, please note) in a debate about macro economic policy, but I do feel that years and years of evolution have left us with a kind of asymmetric bias which means while we definitely (always and everywhere) don't like to see our wages and salaries actually cut, we have much less resistance to them being eaten away by price inflation (again, this is the whole point of Keynes's little tract "How To Pay For The War" - its just that this war is an economic and not a military one). So politically, it is easier in principle to maintain consensus around a devaluation which followed by tight controls on income, than it is to cut people's salaries outright. Another example which illustrates my point here comes from the recent German experience, where real wage deflation was effected over a number of years (1995 - 2005), and export competitiveness restored, by maintaining a wage freeze, and getting people (during the most significant part of this process) to agree to work more hours for the same money. But to do this in Latvia you need to be able to expand output and add jobs, which is why devaluation is, in my opinion, highly desireable. You cannot expect people to work for the same money and longer hours, and agree to the chap working next to them being dispatched off to the employment offices, things just aren't that simple in the real world.br /br /br /The bicycle is must easier to keep stable if you peddle forwards.br /br /strongThe Demographics Clinch It/strongbr /br /br /br /br /pa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SU6x87sGovI/AAAAAAAAL1k/EnvJlub7-Io/s1600-h/latvia+population.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5282355073325114098" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 174px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SU6x87sGovI/AAAAAAAAL1k/EnvJlub7-Io/s320/latvia+population.png" border="0" //a /pbr /pSo this brings me to the biggest problem I have to the whole U shaped correction idea in the Latvian context. I will readily agree with Christoph when he says that the Latvian labour force is extremely nimble, and indeed it is especially so when it comes to packing its bags and heading off in the direction of the frontier in search of work abroad. In fact it is so nimble that it manages to do this without the Latvian statistical office even noting that the people have gone, that's how nimble they are.br //ppSo this is the outcome I really fear most, the one which means that when Latvia does eventually start to recover, this recovery will only take place with a time lag, and in the wake of an expansion in some key West European (and especially Nordic) economies, which will mean that their will be another loss of workforce in the slipstream their take off will create, a loss which can become a very serious drag on future growth, and indeed may well restrict even further the inflation-free level of sustainable growth for the entire Latvian economy. The chart below, which compares the Irish and the Latvian wage distributions comes from an earlier period (and indeed was prepared by the IMF itself), but it does give some idea of the problem, since there is a clear wage slope running across Europe from east to West, and much needed Latvian workers have an unfortunate tendency of trying to climb their way up it.br /br /(please click over image for better viewing)br /br //pa onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/RnrXR5IXIbI/AAAAAAAAAWE/wd9rpOvxEmQ/s1600-h/latvia+and+Ireland+wages.jpg"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5078608232207294898" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; CURSOR: pointer; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/RnrXR5IXIbI/AAAAAAAAAWE/wd9rpOvxEmQ/s400/latvia+and+Ireland+wages.jpg" border="0" //abr /So the situation envisaged in the "fixed-peg correction" - namely a period of negative economic growth and substantial wage contraction - will probably only produce yet another round of out-migration (although this time, in all probabity, it won't be to Ireland) which will in turn makes the domestic wage correction even more difficult to implement (another kind of 'vicious loop'). It is interesting to note that the IMF were raising this sort of issue with the Latvian authorities during the earlier overheating phase, but the Latvian solution (which prevailed at the time) was really to tolerate higher than desireable wage increases in order to disuade Latvians from leaving. So there is prior evidence that whatever the promises (and even, lets be generous, the good intentions) local governments find it very hard to stand in the path of their voters when these want social improvemnt, and indeed such vulnerability could come from the most compassionate and noble of motives, the problem is these are simply misplaced.br /br /strongDebt Restructuring A key Problem/strongbr /br /Here (see below) is the IMF Structural Roadmap a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=22586.0"as it appears in the latest report/a, and as can be seen, there is a heavy emphasis on the legislative changes needed to carry out the debt restructuring, which gives some idea of the important role this played in the decision making process.br /br /blockquote• Cabinet of Ministers to adopt decision that reforms controls over budget execution (December 31, 2008).br /• Adopt operational guidelines clarifying procedures for provision of emergency liquidity assistance (December 31, 2008).br /• National Tripartite Co-operation Council will establish a Committee to Promote Wage Restraint (January 31, 2009).br /• Review and, if necessary, revise regulations on emergency liquidity support (January 31, 2009)br /• Complete focused examination of the banking system (March 31, 2009).br /• Develop comprehensive debt restructuring strategy (April 30, 2009).br /• Amend banking laws to give FCMC, BoL and Government powers to restore financial stability in case of systemic crisis (June 30, 2009).br /• Adopt an amendment to the Budget and Financial Management law to strengthen financial responsibility, transparency and accountability (June 30, 2009).br /• Amend insolvency law to facilitate orderly and efficient debt restructurings (June 30, 2009)./blockquotepI have to say that I am really rather surprised at a numberof the things I found on reading a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=22586.0"the IMF report /ain detail. In particular I discovered that the true size of the 2009 annual fiscal deficit is going to be 17.3% and not the "mere" 4.9% that appears in the final budget accounts. This is not a problem of "massaging" (I am not suggesting that) but a by-product of the cost of bank restructuring - which involves recapitalisation and the acquisition of "troubled assets" - and these costs, under the new accounting rules, are classified as held to maturity, and not marked to market in terms of their valuation, nor, under the present convention do such liabilities appear as part of the headline fiscal deficit number. /ppNonethless Latvia's gross public debt is now set to rise, and dramatically. It is set to go up from 8.3% of GDP in 2007, to 14.3% in 2008 and to an estimated 46% in 2010. And this is all basically to pay for the bank bailout (which is estimated by the IMF to be likely to cost of $1.868 billon in 2009) and not in order to address issues in the broader economic crisis.br /br /The worrying part of all this is that if we don't get the best case scenario, and find ourselves, for example) not with a U- but with an L- shaped non-recovery, then this debt to GDP (and indeed even the annual fiscal deficit itself) may start to head above the EU 60% and 3% rules in 2011 or 2012, thus putting in jeopardy the IMF's own exit strategy for Latvia of eurozone membership. The IMF themselves go to some length to point out that the best case outcome critically depends on maintaining a political will which (as we are starting to see) may not be so strong as they were lead to believe at the time of making the agreement.br /br /The problem is that Latvia, apart from the internal credit boom, and the consequent housing bust and real economy contraction which follows (and which all three Baltic states "enjoyed" actually stands out from its Baltic peers in that it also became something of an offshore financial centre during the boom years. That is to say, there are shades of the Iceland or UK problem in the Latvian situation. I quote the IMF document:br /br /"Finally, standard debt sustainability analysis may not capture all of Latvia's characteristics, given its dependence on foreign bank borrowing for credit intermediation and its role as an offshore financial centre. First, Latvia's net foreign debt is much lower (around 70 percent of GDP), as it reinvests many of the non-resident deposits in assets overseas. The value and liquidity of these assets then becomes key. Second, much of its foreign borrowing is backed by domestic assets. Thus external debt sustainability will depend on whether these assets recover value and will be able to generate future returns to service the debt."br /br /As I read it, this means that Latvia is a miniture version of Iceland or the UK, and that as well as a macro consumption boom/bust disaster there is a non-domestic-loan recovery problem inside the banking system of some magnitude. As the IMF itself says the value and liquidity of Latvia's overseas assets is one of the "keys" to the problem. The other "key" depends on whether or not domestic assets recover their earlier value, an outcome which given even the internal price deflation strategy proposed by the IMF seems fairly unlikely, at least over the relevant time horizon./ppThe bank restructuring component is so expensive largely because the Latvian owned Parex bank (assets equivalent to more than 20% of GDP) was taken over by the government following a run on deposits and the consequent need to avoid default on the 775 million euros ($1 billion) of syndicated credits due in 2009. In fact the problems at Parex were one of the main reasons Latvia went to the IMF and EU for financial help in the first place - since in theory the issuers of the syndicated credit had the right to demand repayment of the debt immediately following a change in ownership at the bank, and the government needed the institutional support to be able to renegotiate and rollover the debt.br /br /As a result the Latvian authorities have been able to issue guarantee for the refinancing of isyndicated loans of EUR775 million due in 2009 (EUR275 million in February and EUR500 million in June). The credit ratings agencies, and in particular Fitch, believe that in the current global economic climate a rapid future sale of the bank difficult and that the government will have increasing difficulty in the future refinancing the syndicated loans. Moreover, the risk of further deposit withdrawals from Parex bank, especially by non-residents, will continue despite the effective nationalisation of the bank.br /br /The new Parex chairman Nils Melngailis was a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/privateEquityFinancialServicesAndRealEstate/idUSLB33129320081211"quoted recently as saying/a that the bank's value was anywhere between 2 lats ($3.65), the price the state paid to buy out the two previous owners, and 600 million euros. /ppIf all this is correct, then my guess is that we could even be eventually looking at the possibility of a Latvian sovereign default. I mean, personally speaking, I am pretty sure the medicine the IMF are administering just won't work (for the reasons I am putting forward) and that things will deteriorate. But sovereign default something I would never have imagined before I started digging a bit deeper into the whole situation. And the IMF should seriously be thinking about this. Latvia's level of public debt was previously very low, and then whooosh. Fitch seem to share this view, since they have maintained their negative outlook following last November's downgrade./pblockquoteFitch Ratings has today downgraded the Republic ofLatvia's long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR)to 'BBB-' (BBB minus) from 'BBB', Long-term local currency IDRto 'BBB' from 'BBB+' and Country Ceiling to 'A-' (A minus) from'A'. The Short-term foreign currency IDR is affirmed at 'F3'.In addition, Fitch has placed Latvia's sovereign ratings onRating Watch Negative (RWN)./blockquotepbr /br /br //pa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SX-IRFyv1dI/AAAAAAAAMZo/x_gK48k2DvA/s1600-h/latvia+median+age.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5296101514005173714" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 224px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SX-IRFyv1dI/AAAAAAAAMZo/x_gK48k2DvA/s400/latvia+median+age.png" border="0" //abr /br /Soon enough Latvia will have to face all the on-costs of pensions, health etc for the growing numbers of old people as the median age rises (see chart above). Claus Vistesen and I are busily trying to "calibrate" things here, since notionally Latvia's median age is a lot younger (41) than that of Japan, Italy or Germany (43). But then, on the other hand, Latvians live on average ten years less. So people stop working earlier, and since the really large health care costs are during the last 5 years of life, and this doesn't change substantially if those involved are between 65 and 70 or between 80 and 85. So there is an ageing "calibration" issue here - one which non of the multilateral agencies involved have yet taken on board as far as I can see. Also we need to move the saving and borrowing age ranges around a bit when we come to think about the life cycle (to adjust for shorter working lives etc).br /br /And this "just where is all the money from the loans going" issue is a much bigger question than simply a Latvian one. The IMF original loan to Hungary, for example, included HUF 600 billion (about 20% of the total loan) to be allocated to bank bailout plans, 50% of which was earmarked for capital injections while the other 50% was to be used for state guarantees for commercial banks. The government later boosted this HUF 300 billion guarantee fund to HUF 1,500 billion, however today it has been announced that more of the IMF loan facility may be used to back loans right up to the 1,500 billion HUF level - which surely gives us an indication of the severity of the problems they are having. But what concerns us here is that as a result of these and other measures Hungarian debt to GDP is now projected to rise (Januarry 2009 EU Commission forecast) from approximately 65% in 2009 to 79% in 2010, and of course there can be downside (or if you prefer, upside) on this. So both Hungary and Latvia look dead set to me to receive further credit downgrades, downgrades which will only serve to materially worsen the situation. And thus there is a considerable danger of a self-perpetuating downward spiral, especially if due to the weighting towards the bank problems the present package of measures simply don't work. People are vastly overestimating the power of longer term structural reforms in the context of such a sharp downturn. All very troubling.br /br /br /strongDeflation A Problem?/strongbr /p/ppAlso, there is another fundamental reason for devaluation, and that is the ability to regain control over an independent monetary policy, since handling a sharp and sudden deflationary shock may well be much harder with a fixed-wheel lock-in to the ECB benchmark rate. Ben Bernanke himself gave us a good example of how the sort of debt deflation process to which Latvia is going to be subjected works in practice, and why it is so dangerous in a modern economic context) a href="http://www.princeton.edu/svensson/und/522/Readings/Bernanke.pdf"in an early paper he wrote on Japan/a.br /br /emTo take an admittedly extreme case, suppose that the borrower’s loan (taken out prior to 1992) was still outstanding in 1999 , and that at loan initiation he had expected a 2.5% annual rate of increase in the GDP deflator and a 5% annual rate of increase in land prices. Then by 1999 the real value of his principal obligation would be 22% higher, and the real value of his collateral some 42% lower, then he anticipated when he took out the loan. These adverse balance-sheet effects would certainly impede the borrower’s access to new credit and hence his ability to consume or make new investments. The lender, faced with a non-performing loan and the associated loss in financial capital, might also find her ability to make new loans to be adversely affected. This example illustrates why one might want to consider indicators other than the current real interest rate—-for example, the cumulative gap between the actual and the expected price level—-in assessing the effects of monetary policy. It also illustrates why zero inflation or mild deflation is potentially more dangerous in the modern environment than it was, say, in the classical gold standard era. The modern economy makes much heavier use of credit, especially longer term. Further, unlike the earlier period, rising prices are the norm and are reflected in nominal-interest-rate setting to a much greater degree. Although deflation was often associated with weak business conditions in the nineteenth century, the evidence favors the view that deflation or even zero inflation is far more dangerous today than it was a hundred years ago./embr /br /And it seems Lavia is now about to enter a sustained period of price and wage deflation (and thus loan to income inflation) with no monetary and no fiscal tools to attack the problem.br /br //ppstrongOK, Now for Christoph's pointsbr //strongbr /1/ ema devaluation in Latvia would have severe regional contagion effects/em. I think that on this point we are all in basic agreement. On my view, the EU and the IMF need a coherent common strategy to address the whole situation in the East (at least across those countries who form part of the EU), and I think we are rapidly getting past the point where problems can be dealt with on a piecemeal basis. I mean. clearly some of the points here post date our earlier debate, but part of the foundation of my initial argument was that the whole situation was at risk of becoming so serious that nothing less than a concerted regional initiative would have the credibility and the robustness to work. It may be that outright eurosisation of the entire group maybe the only viable way to go, but I need to argue this separately and substantially, so I will not go into this further here). But, be that as it may, the leading question is that even if eurosiation is to be contemplated, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Bulgaria all need to come of their pegs and lower the parity at which they would enter, and even if the situation in each case is different, the problem is going to be the same, so my underlying point would be better to do this in a cordinated way, and indeed the decision by the Hungarian government to come off their band back in May could be seen as a first step in just this direction.br /br /This is doubly the case since when we talk about regional consequences, we can also talk about the regional effects of a strong devaluation of the UK pound, the Swedish krona, the Russian ruble, the Ukrainian hryvnia, the Czech koruna, the Hungarian forint, and the Polish zloty. Basically the economies in all the aforementioned countries all face a similar problem - domestic demand is down and they need to export, and they are all addressing this by the application of a mixture of devaluation and price deflation, and basically I don't see why the Baltics should be so different, and why we (or at least the IMF, the WB and the EU) don't treat the three Baltic states as one single group here.br /br /3/ emLatvia’s preference for the peg is strongly supported by all foreign stakeholders, including the EU and its Nordic neighbors..........it seems unlikely that they will cut their losses and pull out, as Japanese banks did during the Asian crisis./em Well, this is certainly the case, but it is not at all clear that these stakeholders could not be brought over to a devaluation strategy. There is currently a lively debate going on in Sweden about just how much responsibility the Swedish government and monetary authorities should accept in the context of what is happening in the Baltics (a href="http://www.balticbusinessnews.com/Default2.aspx?ArticleID=74b58ea8-76b7-46ed-acb2-286631e4a81bamp;open=sec"see here/a, and a href="http://www.balticbusinessnews.com/Default2.aspx?ArticleID=bdd51c19-f912-4a0f-b57c-d007fb49426c"here/a), and more significantly, the a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSLI39362320081218"Group Of Ten West European banks /awith most exposure to the CEE economies has started to lobby for an initiative from the ECB and the EU Commission to address the problem of the inevitable bank losses (since I take it we are agreed that the defaults will be no less on the internal deflation approach, and may well, as Krugman suggests, be greater as those who have borrowed in local currency are also forced into default).br /br /4/ emA devaluation would not significantly reduce Latvia’s external financing needs./em I am not sure about this. Obviously a devaluation which was sharp enough to remove all further worries about future devaluations would take a lot of pressure off the country's reserves. The shrinkage in the CA deficit would also, as you say, help a little, as would the fact that internal saving would start to improve domestic liquidity.br /br /While it would shrink the current account deficit further, private sector roll-over rates might not improve because the higher external debt to GDP ratio would likely result in credit agency downgrades to junk status and trigger the immediate repayment of most syndicated loans. I completely accept this point, but assume that the devaluation strategy would need to be accompanied by a loan restructuring package. Evidently this will be necessary in any event, on the devaluation variant they restructuring will come sooner, but against the difficulties this may present for a Latvian legal framework which is ill equipped to address the problems which will arise can be offset the advantages of getting all the bad news out of the way early.br /br /5/ emthere are advantages to a U-shaped adjustment via factor price compression over the V-shaped recovery that is often associated with a devaluation...../emChristoph makes the entirely valid point thatem /emLatvia’s banks (both domestic and foreign owned) and its legal system are at this point quite uprepared for the sort of stress a comprehensive debt restucturing process would put them under. By drawing the process of bankruptcies and nonperforming loan accumulation out a bit, Christoph argues, the authorities may well buy time to improve the country’s insolvency regime, strengthen banks’ capital base and allow private debt restructuring.br /br /Well, this is essentially the same set of issues as in argument 4. There are advantages in drawing out the bankruptcy process, but against these advantages need to be offset the problems posed by reform fatigue, as people are asked to sacrifice over a long period with no visible benefits to see for their effort. And there is no guarantee that the towel won't simply have to be thrown in at the end of the day on the U shaped recession, with a hasty devaluation being carried out, and the U being converted into a UL, with the bounce back only coming much later.br /br /6/ emit is questionable whether a devaluation would quickly boost exports, given the global environment and the structure of its exports/em. emRe-orienting the economy towards tradables will require structural reforms which are envisaged in the program/em. Basically, I think we are back to the "waiting room" approach again here. Export lead growth is not really a credible option at the moment, so the argument goes, given that the external conditions are extremely unfavourable, and that Latvia's economy is dominated by non-tradeables, financial services and construction. All of this is undoubtedly true, but my argument is that you have to start somewhere, and may own view is that it is better to start tomorrow, rather than the day after, and I think the key to breaking the logjam is attracting greenfield site FDI, but to do this you need to get your operating costs down, and the V shape correction achieves this outcome quicker than the U shaped one.br /br /7/em Latvia has a very flexible economy, especially a quite nimble labor market/em. Really I don't know what to make of this argument, since if this is the case, why was it not more evident during the years of dramatic wage inflation. Wage cuts of up to 25 percent do seem, as Christoph says, large, but so does the tripling of nominal wages between 2001-07 (doubling in real terms), and unless we get to grips with why all that happened in the first place (that is we take a good look at what may be the real Latvian capacity growth rate without inward migration) then I feel I remain unconvinced that we are suddenly about to see a newborn agility in the Latvian labour market. What I see are rather labour market rigidities, and a resistance to change.span style="FONT-STYLE: italic"/p/spanblockquotespan style="FONT-STYLE: italic"Some analysts called for expanding inward migration to alleviate shortages and dampen wage pressures. However, policymakers generally considered that this would have the effect of replacing domestic low-cost workers with imported ones, thereby holding down wages and promoting further emigration./span emThe government argues that rapid wage convergence with western Europe is needed to check emigration./em - IMF Staff Report, 2006br //blockquotestrongConclusions And Exit Strategy/strongbr /br /pbr /So where does all this leave us? Well basically that what we have on our hands is one hell of a mess, and that here there are no easy solutions. Did anyone tell you we lived in an imperfect world? Well what is going on in Latvia is surely as good an illustration that you are likely to find that this is the indeed the case. There are no easy, quickfix, policy solutions, and I fully understand Christoph's dilemma, and the difficulty associated with decision taking in this case./ppBut, while nothing is guaranteed to work, some approaches may turn out to be better placed than others, and it is my considered opinion that the best way of addressing the Latvian problem is by trying to kick-start the economy via devaluation, and to then tackle the wage increase problem by explicitly opening Latvia's frontiers to external migrant labour (as, for example, the Czech Republic have, to some extent, done). Such devaluation, backed by imaginative enough greenfield site support from the government, could attract the FDI, and alongside it the migrants to provide the manpower for unskilled positions, with better educated Latvians being able to get involved in some of the higher value work. If something is not done to break the population vicious circle, and the meltdown in internal demand and property prices as young Latvians seek work elsewhere then the outcome is all too clear, although not for that any less tragic, as Krugman suggests./ppOf course, some may wish to object at this point that devaluation has the same effect on wages as wage cuts do, and they would be right, but the point is strongthe overall level of economic activity is greater on the V shaped approach/strong (this was Keynes', and is today Bernanke's, basic insight). Latvian GDP is about to be thrown, from a period of trying to operate above capacity, to one where for an extended period of time it will operate below capacity. This can never be a good solution. On the V shaped recovery scenario the strongtime path of GDP is higher/strong, and the possibility of finding remunerative employment for each and every individual Latvian is to that extent greater. More idle resources will be put to work at a time when there is huge slack in the global system, and energy and material costs are at very low levels. Investment (building factories etc, buying machinery and equipment) simply couldn't be cheaper . Putting the resources to work to make this possible quite simply can't be a bad thing, or so I contend, and certainly not if the alternative may be sitting back and waiting till you have a sovereign default coming crashing in on top of you. /ppI see plenty of work for Latvian parliamentarians (passing much needed laws etc) in the current proposals but I see comparatively few initiatives which will keep the idle hands of Latvia's valuable human resource base from freezing over. /ppLet us be clear, of course there is no single clear "cure all" remedy here, but I think we need to say strongly that the earlier attempt to stem the migrant out-flow by being lax on the wage inflation front was to invite disaster (and the disaster of course came), whereas now, excessively compressing wages as the solution will have the impact which was previously feared./pstrongExport Defeatism?br //strongbr /pOne of the biggest obstacles facing countries like Latvia at the present time (of course Latvia is far from being unique, Latvia is simply the "canary in the coalmine") is a kind of passive defeatism about exports. Of course, Christoph is completely right, the global environment coundn't be more unfavourable, but there really is plenty to be done, so why not keep warm during those long dark winters doing some of it. The EU Commission points out the problem in its latest forecast:/pblockquotepExports are still dominated by commodity products and re exports, with only limited evidence of moving up the technology ladder. Hence, export revenues are exposed to volatile global commodity price developments (mainly prices of wood and metals). Furthermore, unfavourable real exchange rate developments (based e.g. on unit wage costs in manufacturing) had a negative effect on the external competitiveness of the economy. However, a recovery of exports in the first part of 2007 was driven by manufactured goods which stood at odds not only with the above described problems of the supply side, but also with the reportedly very low increase in manufacturing output in the same period. The overall conclusion on progress in strengthening the supply side is therefore mixed, but it can be concluded that the current domestic cost developments pose serious challenges to producers of tradeable goods and services. EU Commission, January 2009 Latvia Forecastbr //p/blockquotebr /pFinally Christoph has one additional point which really serves as a conclusion and a monument to all this, and that is the idea that emLatvia has a clear exit strategy from its currency predicament: euro adoption./em /ppAs Christoph says, the Latvian authorities are determined to work to meet the Maastricht criteria in 2012. Certainly entering the euro zone will not do away - at a click of the finger - with the hard lifting necessary to address the competitiveness and high external debt problems (as he suggests in his a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/vc/2008/022008.htm"avoiding the Portuguese trap article/a, and I go through in my a href="http://globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com/2009/01/portugal-sustains.html"Portugal Sustains post here/a). But it would offer support to a struggling Latvia and help bring back investor confidence. The point is, at which exchange rate should Latvia enter ERM2? Indeed, it is now apparent - if you read the a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=22586.0"IMF staff report on the standby arrangement/a, on their website, that they favoured an expansion of the band to 15% (which basically means 15% devaluation) and it was the EU itself who objected and pushed to retain the peg (see appendix below). It is not difficult to see the problems a Latvian devaluation might face in the light of the Parex related issues without direct euroisation (or EU fiscal support), but the thrust of my argument here has been that these difficulties (credit rating downgrades, sovereign default vulnerability) are going to come anyway. Indeed Latvia had its foreign-credit rating cut to Baa1 by Moodys on January 7 2009, the second such downgrade in three months, with the agency citing increased risks of a prolonged economic decline (read L shaped recession). /pblockquote“The downgrade reflects the further intensification of the economic adjustment in Latvia since October 2008,” said Kenneth Orchard, an analyst with Moody’s, in the statement. “The economic downturn is now expected to be deeper and more prolonged than previously assumed.” The risk of a “disorderly correction” to economic imbalances remains even after securing the 7.5 billion-euro ($10.2 billion) international aid package. “Government borrowing will rise significantly over the next few years to smooth the adjustment and prevent a major economic crisis,”/blockquotepBasically, the EU objected to the IMF proposal for emergency eurozone membership on the grounds that this would sat a precedent in other cases. But I really do feel that the Commission (and the ECB presumeably) are being ridiculously pig-headed here. We have an emergency on our hands, and exceptional measures are called for.br /br /It is impossible for me to go here into all the issues involved in collective membership of the eurozone for the EU12 states that are not already in, but let me just say we need a substantial rethink allround, involving:/ppa) Issuing EU bonds to collectively fund bank bailouts across the Union (East and West)br /b) Collective membership of the eurozone for those EU member states who want itbr /c) A new Lisbon Strategy and Stability and Growth Pact code involving much stricter conditions and stronger Commission powers and sanctions.br /br /c) is the necessary and prior condition for giving consideration to (a) and (b) and not the other way round. /ppFinally, thank you, one and all, who have struggled forward and reached this point. In particular thank you for being so patient with my verbal largesse. I am trying to contain it, I really am.br /br /strongAppendix: Extracts From IMF Staff Report On Latvian Request for Stand-By Arrangementbr //strongbr /emThe authorities and staff examined the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes. A widening of the exchange rate band to ±15 percent (as permitted under ERM2; currently Latvia has unilaterally adopted a ±1 percent band) would result in a larger initial output decline, since adverse balance sheet effects would reduce domestic demand. However, competitiveness would improve more quickly, reducing the current account deficit and fostering a more rapid economic recovery. The case for changing the parity would be stronger if it could be accompanied by immediate euro adoption. Technically, this would address many of the risks described above, and give Latvia deeper access to capital markets. With its negligible public sector debt, the government would also find it easier to borrow in euros on international capital markets. However, the EU authorities have firmly ruled out this option, given its inconsistency with the Maastricht Treaty and the precedents it would set for other potential euro area entrants./embr /br /br /emThe main advantage of widening the bands is that it should eventually deliver a faster economic recovery. Although growth would be depressed in the short run by balance-sheet effects (see below), the economy might then bounce back more sharply, and a Vshaped recovery would likely start in 2010. This reflects a faster improvement in competitiveness since high pass-through (reflecting Latvia’s openness to trade and liberalized movement of labor within the European Union) would be dampened by the negative output gap. Enhanced competitiveness would also reduce the current account deficit more quickly. This would come mainly from import compression, with a relatively slow response of Latvia’s underdeveloped export sector, especially as the external environment is not as supportive as in previous devaluation-induced recoveries as Argentina, Russia or East Asia.br /br /However, balance-sheet effects would cause a sharp drop in domestic demand. The net foreign currency exposure of Latvia’s private sector is around 70 percent of GDP, with the corporate sector’s foreign currency open position roughly double that of the household sector’s. A 15 percent devaluation against the euro would increase private sector net foreign currency exposure by 11 percent of GDP, two thirds in the corporate sector and one third in the household sector. Mismatches between owners of foreign currency assets and liabilities suggest that devaluation may cause substantial redistribution effects. Private consumption would fall by around 6 percentage points due to negative wealth effect as net foreign debt increases, house prices decline, debt service costs increase, and consumer confidence deteriorates. Experience of other countries suggests that a devaluation of this magnitude would lead to a 5 percentage point decline in private sector investment.br /br /Euroization with EU and ECB concurrence would also help address liquidity strains in the banking system. If Latvian banks could access ECB facilities, then those that are both solvent and hold adequate collateral could access sufficient liquidity. The increase in confidence should dampen concerns of resident depositors and also help stem non resident deposit outflows.br /br /br /br /However, this policy option would not address solvency concerns and has been ruled out by the European authorities. If combined with a large upfront devaluation, there would be an immediate deterioration in private-sector solvency, which could slow recovery. Privatesector debt restructuring would likely be necessary. Finally, the European Union strongly objects to accelerated euro adoption, as this would be inconsistent with treaty obligations of member governments, so this option is infeasible./em/p]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-europe/why-latvia-needs-to-devalue-soon-a-reply-to-christoph-rosenberg/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How Near Is The Czech Economy To Recession?</title>
		<link>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-europe/how-near-is-the-czech-economy-to-recession/</link>
		<comments>http://www.straightstocks.com/investing-in-europe/how-near-is-the-czech-economy-to-recession/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Jan 2009 09:17:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manuel Alvarez-Rivera</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bank of england]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[by-product]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[car exports;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[car purchases;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Car Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[central bank forecast;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chemical products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chemicals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citigroup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Czech Republic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danskebank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eastern europe economy watch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EU Commission]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Central Bank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gdp]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Germany]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HICP;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HTML]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[http]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hungary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hyundai]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Italy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Japan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jaromir Sindel;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lars Christensen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[machinery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[metal products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Morgan Stanley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pasquale Diana;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[petroleum products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Poland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prague]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retail]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Retail Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Retail Trade]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Robert Holman;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Southbr;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stanislava Pravdova;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Czech National Bank;]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[transport  equipment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Western Europe]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1443720106009957151.post-7096851944419492805</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[blockquoteThe highly open Czech economy is set to slow down considerably, affected by the deteriorating outlook for its main trading partners. Although GDP growth was still solid in Q3 2008, both exports and imports growth slowed significantly. The global crisis is expected to adversely impact the real economy particularly from the fourth quarter of 2008. Overall, GDP is expected to have grown by 4.2% in 2008 with a strong contribution from the external balance.br /EU Commission Forecast January 2009/blockquotepAnalysts and followers of the Czech economy are basically agreed on two things at the moment: that the Czech is slowing (and rapidly), and that the dependence on car exports is a real achilles heal at a time when a generalised credit crunch means that the financing which is needed for people to make car purchases often quite simply isn't there. Beyond this point opinions differ. Some expect the slowdown to end in nothing more than a year of sub par growth, with a bounce-back recovery in H2 2009 (this is the view, for example, of Pasquale Diana at Morgan Stanley). Others take a more pessimistic view - like Danskebank's Lars Christensen - and fear that not only may we see a substantial slowdown (bordering possibly on outright contraction) throughout the whole of 2009. but also that strong deflationary forces are at work, forces which may well lead the Czech National Bank to become one of the first European central banks (hand in hand possibly with the BoE) to get into the tricky area of trying to operate monetary policy near the zero bound. Personally, after a long hard stare at the detailed macro data, I am in the latter camp, and to answer the question I pose in the title of this post, I think the Czech economy is very near to its first quarter of contraction, indeed we may even have seen contraction in Q4 2008. If we didn't it will be a very close call, since the not only has the trade impact been negative, and industrial output dropped like a stone, but domestic consumer demand - as reflected in retail sales - also seems to have been falling.br /br /And the outlook for domestic demand certainly does not look any too positive, if the most recent consumer confidence readings are anything to go by, since these have been falling strongly since the summer, and surely suggest strong weakness in household consumption right across the first half of 2009, at the very least./ppa href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXto7P2eJNI/AAAAAAAAMX4/z3rSq33daMk/s1600-h/czech+cci.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294941153980720338" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 209px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXto7P2eJNI/AAAAAAAAMX4/z3rSq33daMk/s400/czech+cci.png" border="0" //a /ppstrongIndustrial Output Falls Like A Stonebr //strongbr /br /Czech industrial production fell in November at the fastest rate since at least 2000, dropping by 17.4 percent year on year, following a decline of 7.6 percent in October.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtqYJ9XuKI/AAAAAAAAMYA/L2-vgkjQBHI/s1600-h/czech+IP.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294942750126880930" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 230px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtqYJ9XuKI/AAAAAAAAMYA/L2-vgkjQBHI/s400/czech+IP.png" border="0" //abr /This fall is very substantial and it is clear that the Czech authorities urgently need to revise their growth forecasts in the light of this and other recent data, indeed some analysts - Radomir Jac at Generali PPF Asset Management in Prague , for example - are already arguing the drop may well mean the economy already started to contract in the fourth quarter. Others are more cautious. Still, one thing is common across all the analyses, we are talking about cars, cars, and ever less cars./pblockquoteThe collapse in activity across the region in 4Q08 looks truly extraordinary, and was correctly flagged by the PMI surveys, which sank to all-time lows. Trade data and industrial output and, to a lesser extent, retail sales all show a significant loss of momentum towards year-end. Much of this is due to weaker external demand, in particular in the auto sector, which is the region’s most important export. Car sales in the EU have weakened further, and several carmakers have announced a cut in their production plans for 2009. In the Czech Republic, Hyundai said that it plans to move to a four-day workweek and pay workers 70% of their salaries for a period of 1-3 months; Skoda also downgraded its production plans massively for 2009 (from 700k cars to 570k).br /a href="http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2008/20090119-Mon.html#anchor7369"Pasquale Diana, Morgan Stanley/a/blockquotebr /blockquoteThe Czech Republic has arguably the most stable economy in central Europe, but at a time when the world is being buffeted by financial crisis, there is no chance it will escape being hit next year. First in the line of fire will be the automotive sector which, with almost 1m cars manufactured this year, is responsible for about 10 per cent of the economy. Almost all are exported to western Europe, where new car sales have plunged in the final months of the year.br /Jan Cienski, a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/222ce452-cc97-11dd-acbd-000077b07658.html"Financial Times/a/blockquotepAnd the situation is almost sure to get worse, since the Czech Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 32.7 in December, from 37.8 in November, which indicates a very substantial fall in industrial output again in December.br /br /br //ppa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXpDMpLbt4I/AAAAAAAAMWA/ooE6FwoHu-I/s1600-h/czech+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294618196418738050" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXpDMpLbt4I/AAAAAAAAMWA/ooE6FwoHu-I/s400/czech+PMI.png" border="0" //a Thus we can expect Q4 industrial output to be a strongly negative factor, and indeed this only marks a steepening of a trend we have been seeing since Q1 2008, if we look at the quarterly chart for movements in manufacturing output below.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtfjHLg1QI/AAAAAAAAMXI/AUXne7w6Nvw/s1600-h/czech+manufactiring+output.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294930843731547394" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 207px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtfjHLg1QI/AAAAAAAAMXI/AUXne7w6Nvw/s400/czech+manufactiring+output.png" border="0" //abr /strongExports Fall And The Trade Balance Deteriorates/strong/pp/ppThe fall in industrial output is basically a reflection of the ongoing deterioration in the CR's performance in external trade, and the drop indemand for exports. The monthly goods trade deficit was CZK 474 million in November, down from the very large CZK3.95 billion deficit registerd in October, but well below the CZK 12 billion surplus clocked up in November 2007.br /br /Exports were down 18% year-on-year in the month compared with a 10.7% fall in October. The statistics office report said the decline in exports was the highest in the entire history of the Czech Republic. Imports declined 13.2% compared with a 5.9% drop in October. Total imports slipped to CZK 195.2 billion from CZK 221.4 billion.br /br //ppa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtt7-7c-8I/AAAAAAAAMYI/-FkztlLcqjw/s1600-h/czech+imports.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294946664176221122" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 210px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtt7-7c-8I/AAAAAAAAMYI/-FkztlLcqjw/s400/czech+imports.png" border="0" //abr /strongRetail Sales Also Head Southbr //strongbr /br /In November, seasonally adjusted retail sales in retail trade (excluding cars) decreased by 0.3% month-on-month (at constant prices) and fell by 0.7%, year-on-year. As far as the automotive sector goes, seasonally adjusted sales were 3.4% down, m-o-m, and 5.1%. Sales were also down 0.7% month on month in October.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXsfu95uCTI/AAAAAAAAMWI/ZqvZv2hCoYc/s1600-h/czech+retail+sales.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294860678655248690" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 207px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXsfu95uCTI/AAAAAAAAMWI/ZqvZv2hCoYc/s400/czech+retail+sales.png" border="0" //abr /strongKoruna Continues To Fall/strongbr /br /With all this negative data it is hardly surprising that the Czech koruna has been weaking significantly of late, and it depreciated again last week, losing as much as 1 percent on Friday alone (hitting 28.255 against the euro at one point, the weakest since July 2007) and 2.1 percent on the week.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXsgXWkFRxI/AAAAAAAAMWQ/ir_mVaedNJM/s1600-h/koruna.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294861372470150930" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 241px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXsgXWkFRxI/AAAAAAAAMWQ/ir_mVaedNJM/s400/koruna.png" border="0" //a /ppstrongConsumer Prices Already Fallingbr //strongbr /Consumer prices in the Czech Republic were down again in December, and fell by 0.3% when compared with November. Year-on-year consumer prices were up by 3.6 % in December (down from 4.4 % in November), while the whole year average was 6.3 % in 2008.br /br /As is to be expected the month-on-month drop in consumer prices was lead by the fall in automotive fuel - 95 octane petrol hit its lowest level since March 2002, while food and non-alcoholic beverages were mainly down, with pronounced falls in the prices of flour, milk, butter, citrus fruit and sugar (by 6.7 %, 1.7 %, 2.7 %, 8.6 % and 1.9 %, respectively). But prices drop were far more general, and in the health sector, for example, medical products dropped by 0.5 %. Prices of goods in general decreased by 0.5 %, while prices of services increased by 0.1 %.br /br //ppa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXsm9nV7K6I/AAAAAAAAMWo/8EFdtcB5kNY/s1600-h/czech+inflation.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294868626878966690" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 209px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXsm9nV7K6I/AAAAAAAAMWo/8EFdtcB5kNY/s400/czech+inflation.png" border="0" //a But what is perhaps more interesting is the way in which the "core" EU HICP index (ie excluding food, alchohol, tobacco and energy) has now been falling since August, and I do not expect to see an increase in this index in 2009, which means we should see negative core inflation in the CR in 2009.br /br /a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtl9gzu2vI/AAAAAAAAMXw/0v7AhkoGrb0/s1600-h/czech+HICP.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294937894357490418" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 207px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtl9gzu2vI/AAAAAAAAMXw/0v7AhkoGrb0/s400/czech+HICP.png" border="0" //abr /br /Industrial producer prices are also falling, and were down by an annual 1.5% in November. The most significant price decreases were observed in ‘coke, refined petroleum products’ (-19.0%), ‘basic metals, fabricated metal products’ (-2.1%) and ‘chemicals, chemical products and man-made fibres’ (-3.8%). Prices of ‘food products, beverages and tobacco’ fell by 0.5%.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXslEL0vODI/AAAAAAAAMWg/hSDbYYjedr0/s1600-h/czech+producer+prices.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294866540727842866" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 208px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXslEL0vODI/AAAAAAAAMWg/hSDbYYjedr0/s400/czech+producer+prices.png" border="0" //a The big issue now is what will happen to inflation expectations? The strongest defence against the arrival of deflation is the expectation of inflation to come. To date these expectations have held up, but they could well turn negative at some point, and if this were to occur it would have a very significant impact on consumer behaviour (since evidently it is more interesting to delay that whimsical purchase till tomorrow, when the thing will be cheaper). If expectations do turn significantly negative, then it could turn out to be very hard work indeed getting them back into positive territory. Which is why I suspect the CNB will be pretty proactive, possibly more proactive than many are anticipating./ppbr /strongMoving Towards The Zero Bound At The CNB?/strongbr /br /The Czech National Bank, whose next policy-setting meeting is scheduled for 5 February, have been cutting their benchmark borrowing rate pretty aggresively since last October, taking it down to 2.25 percent at its last meeting in December. /pblockquoteThe drop of industrial output is “really considerable,” central bank board member Robert Holman said on Patria.cz. The bank’s “pessimistic” forecast scenario is starting to be fulfilled, he said. /blockquotepThe latest central bank forecast cut the outlook for 2009 economic growth to 2.9 percent, although the bank had an alternative (pessimistic) scenario which foresaw growth of 0.5 percent this year. /pblockquoteToday’s industrial production numbers and the outlook for inflation to drop to just above 1% in January should make the Czech central bank (CNB) even more dovish. We now expect a cut of at least 75bp at the next CNB board meeting in February. Furthermore, we would not rule out that CNB could be the first European central bank (maybe with the Bank of England) to go to (near) zero per cent interest rates. Therefore, we also recommend buying EUR/CZK at current levels.br /Lars Christensen and Stanislava Pravdova, Danskebankbr /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXsiFZ8JlaI/AAAAAAAAMWY/QNmTPvV-_o8/s1600-h/czech+interest+rates.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294863263162013090" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 226px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXsiFZ8JlaI/AAAAAAAAMWY/QNmTPvV-_o8/s400/czech+interest+rates.png" border="0" //a /blockquoteblockquoteSo far, January’s economic data published support our view that the CNB’s Bank Board Members are ready to continue easing, following the 150bp cut in policy rates in 2H08 to 2.25%. However, yesterday’s data have led us to review our previous forecast of a 50bp cut in the CNB’s policy rates, and we now believe a 75-100bp cut is likely to be discussed at the February meeting. Furthermore, we do not exclude the possibility that the CNB’s main policy rate could breach its all-time low (which was 1.75% in 2Q-3Q05) in February.br /Jaromir Sindel, CitiGroup Global Markets/blockquotepI am with Lars Christensen and Jaromir Sindel here, I think the CNB will move, and move pretty decisively to try to block the path to looming price deflation, and I guess a 75 bp cut (and possibly more) is looking very probable, with further cuts following inswift succession. Evidently the key piece of data will be the January manufacturing PMI, and in the short term I expect the PMI and not the actual output data (which obviously come later) to be dictating policy decisions. The statist office releases simply serve to calibrate the PMIs (post hoc) in this type of situation.br /br //ppstrongSo What Is The Outlook For Czech GDP Growth in 2009?br //strongbr //ppa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtg84q696I/AAAAAAAAMXQ/BXGslCf37Rg/s1600-h/czech+GDP+yoy.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294932386024978338" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 208px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtg84q696I/AAAAAAAAMXQ/BXGslCf37Rg/s400/czech+GDP+yoy.png" border="0" //a Well, in trying to determine the future path of Czech GDP, the first thing we need to bear in mind - looking at the GDP chart above - is that the economy has been losing momentum since late 2006, that is the "stellar" catch-up growth component has been waning, and for some time. The second thing we need to bear in mind is that this is not necessarily a bad thing, since it means that the CR's economy (unlike many others across the CEE) is certainly not on a boom bust cycle. The slowdown in quarter on quarter growth is also evident in the chart below. In fact in Q3 2008, Czech GDP grew by 1.0% in comparison to Q2 2008 and by 4.7% in comparison to Q3 2007.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtPUcoxBjI/AAAAAAAAMXA/UxhAeDgOXzE/s1600-h/czech+qoq.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294912999607305778" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 232px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtPUcoxBjI/AAAAAAAAMXA/UxhAeDgOXzE/s400/czech+qoq.png" border="0" //abr /What is interesting is that the weaker growth we can see in the chart has been largely a by-product of slowing private consumption growth (see a href="http://czecheconomy.blogspot.com/2008/08/ceska-narodni-banka-drops-its-interest.html"my earlier post here/a, and a href="http://easterneuropeeconomy.blogspot.com/2008/04/inflation-free-growth-capacity-in-czech.html"this one here/a), which leaves us with the possibility that the Czech Republic economy - following along the path already charted by Germany, Japan, Italy and Hungary - may now be in the process of becoming an export dependent one. (Perhaps it sounds strange to talk about Italy as export dependent given its very weak growth, but this weak growth is in fact the outcome of continuing very poor export performance, since domestic demand has now been weak for more years than I personally care to remember). In fact final domestic consumption was still up by 2.7% in Q3 2008, and represented a contribution of 1.9 p.p. to GDP growth. Final consumption was particularly influenced by a year on year increase in household expenditure by 2.5% , while government expenditure grew by 3.7%. Fiscal stimulus should hold the government component steady, but I would expect the household one to drop back, and especially as we start to see job losses from the industrial contraction.br //ppa href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXth7H_kZOI/AAAAAAAAMXY/YjvMnFdlnKQ/s1600-h/czech+household.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294933455290000610" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 207px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXth7H_kZOI/AAAAAAAAMXY/YjvMnFdlnKQ/s400/czech+household.png" border="0" //abr /Gross capital formation was down by 2.0% on Q3 2007 and had a negative impact of 0.5 p.p. on GDP growth, although gross fixed capital formation taken alone was up by 4.5% y-o-y; in fact investment in transport equipment and in machinery and equipment was the main source of GFCF growth./ppa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtj8Rk2xTI/AAAAAAAAMXg/mI7YnF7DhBo/s1600-h/czech+total+capital+formation.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294935674065438002" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 207px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtj8Rk2xTI/AAAAAAAAMXg/mI7YnF7DhBo/s400/czech+total+capital+formation.png" border="0" //a/ppAs in earlier quarters, external trade in goods and services was the main source of economic growth in Q3 and contributed by 2.8 p.p. to the GDP increase, despite a considerable fall in y-o-y growth rate of exports (from 13.9% in Q2 to 5.0% in Q3). This was the result of the marked fall in import growth (from 9.7% to 1.6%), hence external trade remained the principal source of GDP growth.br /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtlCSX4c5I/AAAAAAAAMXo/WQWtuAeRGMs/s1600-h/czech+exports.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5294936876870300562" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 206px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXtlCSX4c5I/AAAAAAAAMXo/WQWtuAeRGMs/s400/czech+exports.png" border="0" //a /pblockquoteReflecting Citi’s expectations of a recession in the eurozone, we forecast the trade surplus (both of goods and services) to shrink significantly in 2009 from its surplus of CZK108 billion in 2008 (our estimate).Falling commodity prices are likely to have been behind the improvement in the terms of trade in November, which fell in October. We believe this development has the following implications: the improvement in the terms of trade is likely to cause the foreign trade’s first negative contribution to GDP growth after three and half years, and GDP growth is likely to fall quickly to the levels of real gross domestic income, which was 2% YoY in 3Q08 and much lower than that of GDP growth of 4.3%.br /Jaromir Sindel, CitiGroup Global Markets/blockquotepstrongEmployment May Weaken/strongbr /br /Employment growth, which has been one of the hallmark features of the Czech expansion, continued to grow in the third quarter and was up by 0.4% q-o-q and 1.9% y-o-y. Labour productivity measured by gross value added per employed person was also up (by 2.3% y-o-y). There were 5.327 million Czechs in employment in Q3 2008, 98,000 more than in Q3 2007. However, there is now some evidence that this favourable situation may now be changing.br /br /Certainly, if we look at the chart below, the substantial drop in unemployment in the CR since 2005 is very impressive, and indeed even though the seasonally adjusted EU harmonised rate ticked up from 4.4% in October to 4.5% in November (the last month for which Eurostat have released data) the change is hardly a dramatic one.br /br /a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXwpYmfTM6I/AAAAAAAAMYg/BBQkpgEY7Eo/s1600-h/czech+unemployment.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5295152764506289058" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 219px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXwpYmfTM6I/AAAAAAAAMYg/BBQkpgEY7Eo/s400/czech+unemployment.png" border="0" //abr /br /However, if we look at the data from the CR's owb labour office, we find a reasonably sharp increase from November to December (unemployment was up by 32,000, compared with a 7,000 rise in December 2007), and if we look at the situation vis a vis vacancies (see chart below), then it is clear that the deterioration in manufacturing conditions is now affecting the labour market, since the number of vacancies advertised has now fallen from the April 2008 peak of 152,300 to December's low of 91,200 (the lowest number in over 2 years, which is all I have data for).br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXwrtv2Q5nI/AAAAAAAAMYo/7d9Zeb33dt0/s1600-h/czech+vacancies.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5295155326819034738" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 210px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SXwrtv2Q5nI/AAAAAAAAMYo/7d9Zeb33dt0/s400/czech+vacancies.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /strongCA Deficit To Deteriorate, While Fiscal Spending May Increase As The Slowdown Ac