A reader left a question that I think is pretty damn good. He asked "what are the variables that I use that allow you to do a forward analysis of an asset with any meaningful probability of being right." As someone who believes in top down management I focus on big picture issues and then try to figure the best way to invest toward the big picture while at the same time building in some sort of counter strategy in case my assessment is wrong. So instead of looking at a stock from the bottom up and saying ok, here is a stock with such and such valuations that will make more widgets next year for a slightly smaller cost and buying it, top down looks at the world for things like supply and demand issues, turning points in cycles or big long-lasting themes as examples. The world ...

Despite having been burned by last week’s colossal head-fake, we were hoping to avoid re-adjusting our RTH double-calendar—but Friday’s drop of 2.7 times the ETF’s one-day standard deviation was not a good sign. On Monday RTH fell through its 50-day moving average and closed just pennies below it. After bouncing off the 200-day MA yesterday, RTH is down again this morning and trading below our theoretical break-even. We’re once again approaching our maximum loss, so we’re making the following adjustment:

-2 RTH July 100 call +2 RTH June 100 call for a net credit of $0.80;

+2 RTH July 95 put -2 RTH June 95 put for a net debit of $1.55.

Don’t forget that two contracts here represent all of our position (e.g., if we had 4 contracts at the 100 strike, we’d be rolling all 4 of them). Now we have a single calendar put spread at the 95 strike. Normally

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