Key News• Oil prices fell below $53 to almost a two-year low . (AP)• The yield on two-year US Treasury bonds hit a record low of 1.06 per cent, responding both to the fresh flight to safety and the prospect of lower interest rates. Eurozone government bond futures hit their highest level since March 2006. (FT)

• World stock markets tumbled Thursday, with benchmarks in Tokyo and Seoul losing almost 7 percent each. (AP)• Five years after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke helped stamp out the risk of deflation, the threat is returning as the financial crisis and a worsening economic slump pull inflation lower. (Bloomberg)• The RBA said in a monthly bulletin today that it bought A$3.15 billion ($2 billion) of its own currency last month, the biggest net purchase on record, as the local dollar posted a record monthly decline. • U.S. options

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Deflationary forces are pushing the price of gold lower. However, beyond the short-term price for paper gold, some of the news is surprisingly bullish. I'm putting out an update to my recent gold report today, with some very interesting news on supply and demand. The director of the World Gold Council was on CNBC yesterday talking about it. You can see that video here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=933064521 Some of the bullish news for gold ... * Global demand rose 18% to 1,133.4 metric tonnes from 963.3 tonnes a year earlier.* In dollar terms, the jump in demand was even bigger. Dollar demand for gold reached an all time quarterly record of $32 billion in the third quarter, a whopping 45% higher than the previous record … set in the second quarter.* Identifiable investment, which includes purchases through exchange-traded funds and of bars ...

The US is probably going to join the rest of the industrialized world in recession and all the bad news probably isn’t priced in yet. However, it would not be surprising to see a rally soon.We’re approaching Thanksgiving. In 13 of the last 15 years the Dow has been up the week before Thanksgiving. Combined with the light volume around the Thanksgiving holiday – there’s an old saying on the Street, “never short a dull market” – we could see a powerful move to the upside before the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq finally hold hands and jump off the next cliff.And then there are commodities. Crude oil fell to the lowest closing price since January 2007 as Japan entered a recession for the first time since 2001. Meanwhile, China National Petroleum, that country’s largest petroleum producer, said demand has dropped “sharply.''The ...

Tuesday November 18, 2008 Navivest

While we are still in a bear market and expect the stock market to be lower than it is now in the near future, we are entering oversold territory and at any point in the very near future absent of bad news, we should get another nice rebound in stocks.

With these rebounds, we see gains of as much as twenty percent in some stocks and that being the case, the aim is to also try and catch the next one.

We are looking for one sometime in the next week or too. Hopefully it does not happen in dribs and drabs.

Obviously, with the volatility in the markets, getting in too early could be a serious costly problem. So what we want to do is watch how stocks are trading and then jump in when conditions are right.

Of late, volume has been light most trading days.

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Key News• The Japanese economy entered its first recession in seven years, as growth declined for the second quarter running by a wider margin than expected, raising fears the situation could deteriorate amid the global downturn. (FT)• Mining companies -- which couldn't dig minerals out of the earth fast enough just a few months ago -- now are struggling to climb out of a very deep hole. On Friday, the world's biggest miner, BHP Billiton, said major Chinese customers are trying to delay purchases of iron ore as China's building boom slows sharply. (WSJ)• Australian retail sales rose in the third quarter by less than economists forecast. (Bloomberg)• Key Reports (WSJ):8:30a.m. Nov NY Fed Manufacturing Index: Expected: -27. Previous: -24.6. 9:15a.m. Sep Industrial Production: Expected: +0.4%. Previous: -2.8%. 9:15a.m. Sep Capacity Utilization: Expected: 76.7. Previous: 76.4.

Quotable “It is fascinating to watch politicians come up with

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Reserves of high-grade oil are in decline, says Byron King. Other hydrocarbons will be required to meet energy demand over the coming decades. But the cost of extracting and refining these resources is much higher than the current market price of crude. And that’s why cheap fuel is definitely not here to stay.

This from Rude Awakening:

The IEA estimates that the oil industry will have to invest over $350 billion per year to counter the steep rates of decline in output. And even that will not be sufficient to maintain levels of output for traditional forms of crude oil. Thus, much of the future investment will have to go toward extracting other kinds of hydrocarbon substances. And these “other kinds” tend to be very expensive to develop.

There are many different kinds of hydrocarbon molecules in the world. The total worldwide carbon base actually adds up to a very big

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China North East Petroleum Holdings Limited, a pioneer in China’s oilfield drilling and production industry, today announced a spectacular increase in revenue and net income for the third quarter of 2008.

Total sales for the third quarter increased 227% over the same quarter last year to $19.7 million. The jump was due to an increase in crude oil production, and the price received for crude oil from PetroChina (PTR), the company’s sole customer. Crude oil production doubled to 172,730 barrels over the same quarter last year. The production boost was attributed to refracturing improvements, and the implementation of water injection technology, improving the efficiency of existing oil wells, together with the addition of 30 new wells drilled during the third quarter.

Gross profit also soared for the quarter, increasing 241%, to $9.2 million, with net income jumping 229% to $4.0 million.

Quarterly results boosted nine-month sales figures from $11.8 million last

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Oil is still one of the best bets for long-term gains says Greg Guenthner. In the midst of blind market panic, investors are forgetting that crude is a finite resource facing unquenchable demand. It will rise to record highs again. And when it does, oil stocks will soar.

This from The Rude Awakening:

During times like these, it’s all too easy to become caught up in the moment. Fear is a powerful emotion. As the markets continue to crumble, many investors lose sight of their goals. They sell positions indiscriminately; they become irrational.

The sell-off we’re experiencing right now is global. And no stock or commodity has escaped the devastation. That’s why we’re looking at a scarce and valuable resource for steady long-term gains: oil.

One energy guru recently made a big bet on oil. He repurchased shares of Exxon (NYSE:XOM), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD), BP (NYSE:

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Oil is still one of the best bets for long-term gains says Greg Guenthner. In the midst of blind market panic, investors are forgetting that crude is a finite resource facing unquenchable demand. It will rise to record highs again. And when it does, oil stocks will soar.

This from The Rude Awakening:

During times like these, it’s all too easy to become caught up in the moment. Fear is a powerful emotion. As the markets continue to crumble, many investors lose sight of their goals. They sell positions indiscriminately; they become irrational.

The sell-off we’re experiencing right now is global. And no stock or commodity has escaped the devastation. That’s why we’re looking at a scarce and valuable resource for steady long-term gains: oil.

One energy guru recently made a big bet on oil. He repurchased shares of Exxon (NYSE:XOM), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD), BP (NYSE:

...

Paulson reworks financial bailout: New targets for investment… even you can apply! Markets plummet… Bill Bonner on when stocks will be cheap enough to buy. OECD predicts global recession… Germany admits contraction has already begun. Wall Street CEOs forecast “rapid,” “deep” U.S. recession. Joel Bowman on a peculiar hissing sound emitting from the Middle East.

For an erudite debate over the Paulson doctrine, we turn to our friends at The Onion this morning:

The Money Hole.

It’s not any more complicated than that, is it?

Indeed, Paulson and company announced a TARP switcheroo yesterday. Now the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Recovery Program (TARP) is suffering a serious case of the STD “mission creep.”

Instead of purchasing troubled assets from banks, the Treasury,

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