Chicago, IL – October 12, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Ford (F), Honda (HMC), Caterpillar (CAT), Boeing (BA) and Chevron Corp. (CVX).

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Here are highlights from Friday’s Analyst Blog:

Trade Deficit Improves

While the year-over-year improvement in the trade deficit is very good news, the reason for it is not so good. It was a reflection of the overall collapse in world trade, something that makes everyone poorer. As far as the GDP calculations are concerned, it does not make any difference -- a decline in the trade deficit is a decline in the trade deficit -- and it is something that feeds directly into the calculations.

However, it is not like there has been a big surge in people buying domestically produced Fords (F) rather than foreign produced Hondas (HMC). Rather, the fall in imports has been simply fewer people buying cars, period. Currently, for every dollar of goods and services we export, we import $1.24 -- down from $1.38 a year ago, but still way out of whack.

It was not until the price of oil crashed last fall that we started to see real improvement in the overall deficit. Now that benefit is largely gone. While the price of imported oil has a bit of a lag with the prices in the pits, there is clearly a relationship. The price of imported oil bottomed in February at $39.22 and was $64.75 in August. It will most likely go up again in September.

It is somewhat ironic that the most dramatic part of the improvement in the trade deficit came as the dollar dramatically strengthened a year ago in the flight-to-safety trade. The path of the trade deficit has not yet been greatly affected by the path of the dollar, for two major reasons.

First, a very large part (over half) of our trade deficit is due to oil imports, and when the dollar is weak, the price of oil tends to go up to compensate. Second, our biggest single deficit is with China, which has effectively pegged the Yuan to the dollar. In August, the China deficit fell to $20.2 billion from $20.4 billion, but still represented 65.1% of the total deficit. Put another way: in August, our deficit with China was more than our deficits with OPEC, The European Union, Japan and Mexico...combined!

The flight-to-safety dollar trade is now unwinding, and the greenback is almost back to the levels it was at before the fall of the House of Lehman. Over time, this should lead to further improvements in our non-oil trade deficit -- if not with China, then with the rest of the world. It might even indirectly help with the Chinese deficit even though the value of the Yuan is effectively fixed to the price of the dollar.

This would happen at the expense of the Japanese or the Europeans, as the Chinese decide to buy their heavy earth-moving equipment from Caterpillar (CAT) rather than from Komatsu, or airplanes from Boeing (BA) rather than Airbus.

Chevron’s Positive Upstream Update

Chevron Corp. (CVX) released its third-quarter interim update, covering the first two months of the quarter. On the whole, the update is positive, with earnings expected to be higher than in the previous quarter.

The company expects the upstream segment to benefit from an increase in crude oil prices as well as from gains of about $400 million associated with asset sales and tax items. Downstream results are likely to be relatively flat, as it continues to be hurt by weak refining margins. Chevron further said that unfavorable foreign currency movements will affect the segment profitability.

The best part of the update pertained to upstream volumes, highlighting Chevron’s attractive growth profile among the super-majors. The company reported that oil and natural gas production average 2.687 million oil-equivalent barrels per day – better than estimates and nearly 10% above the third-quarter 2008 level. Compared to the second quarter of 2009, production would be up by about a percentage.

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About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

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312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

US stock futures point to a moderately higher open on Monday.  Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 34, or 0.4%, to 9,523. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures rose 3.30, or 0.3%, to 1,028.50, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 2.00, or 0.1%, to 1,637.50.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 156 points, or 1.7%, closing above 9,500 for the first time since November 4.  The S&P 500 index added 19 points, or 1.9%, closing at the highest point since October 6.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ composite index added 31.68 points, or 1.59%, to 2,020.90, its highest close since October 1.  On the New York Stock Exchange about four stocks rose for every one that fell.

Speaking at an annual Fed conference, Bernanke noted that "After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, both in the US and abroad," adding prospects for a return to growth in the near-term “appear good."  However, he sounded a note of caution, warning that lending is not back to normal, and that the difficulty consumers and businesses are having obtaining loans will be a challenge.    

All ten S&P 500 industry sectors closed higher on Friday, led by gains in basic materials (+2.7%), oil and gas (+2.6%), industrials (+2.3%), and financials (+2.1%).  Year-to-date technology stocks have been the best of the lot managing gains of 40.4% and are followed closely by basic material shares (+40.1%), financials (+13.2%), industrials (+11.1%), and consumer goods (10.4%).  On the year only telecoms (-4.2%) have suffered declines.

A rise in energy stocks sent shares of Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) up 2.5% to $69.92 and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) rose 1.6% to $69.73.  Shares of healthcare companies also advanced with Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) surging 5.5% to $16.64 and Merck (NYSE:MRK) gaining 5.1% to $32.56.  Among financial issues, AIG (NYSE:AIG) jumped 35% to $32.85 after the company said it will be able to pay back the government.  Game Stop (NYSE:GME) plunged 13% after the company reported earnings that were below analysts’ expectations.    

However, notable risks remain to the fragile economy.  A Sunday Financial Times piece quoted economist Nouriel Roubini as saying there remains a "big risk" of a double-dip recession, although Roubini currently sees a "U-shaped" recovery. 

Chicago, IL – July 31, 2009 – Zacks Equity Research highlights Hanesbrands, Inc. (HBI) as the Bull of the Day and CEMEX, S.A. de C.V. (CX) the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on ConocoPhillips (COP), ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).

Full analysis of all these stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2676

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:

Bull of the Day:

Hanesbrands, Inc. (HBI) management's business model requires only modest sales growth to create substantial EPS growth. Earnings are being driven by brand-building and cost-reduction initiatives.

Since the spin-off in September 2006, the company has reduced debt by $511 million, lowering interest expense from the post spin-off financial structure. However, management is reporting non-GAAP EPS, which excludes unusual actions, which may be distorting perceived earnings.

The Buy rating is maintained due to valuation. Currently, our six-month target price is $20.50 per share.

Bear of the Day:

We are keeping our Sell rating on CEMEX, S.A. de C.V. (CX). The company posted weak results in the second quarter of 2009 with more than 50% decrease in net income year over year.

The continued weak cement volumes in Spain and the U.S. are problematic. The short-term outlook for the company remains highly uncertain based on the prolonged downturns in the residential sector and tight credit conditions coupled with fall in the real estate prices throughout the world.

Moreover, the continuous increase in net debt is extremely concerning. Our six-month target is $8 per share.

Latest Posts on the Zacks Analyst Blog:

Conoco Beats Despite Slump

ConocoPhillips (COP) reported second-quarter earnings of $0.87 per share, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.83 per share.

However, earnings per share were well below from the year-earlier figure of $3.50. This significant downfall was mainly due to significantly lower commodity prices and a steep decline in worldwide marketing margins, which more than offset production improvements and lower costs.

While turnaround in crude oil prices is beneficial to the entire sector, we are maintaining our Hold recommendation on ConocoPhillips shares given the company’s competitive disadvantages relative to its super major peers. These disadvantages include a high-cost OECD-centric asset base and heavy exposure to the relative tentative outlook for U.S. natural gas (more than a third of total volumes) and refining markets. Our preferred names in the integrated space remain ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).

Get the full analysis of all these stocks by going to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5507.

About the Bull and Bear of the Day

Every day, the analysts at Zacks Equity Research select two stocks that are likely to outperform (Bull) or underperform (Bear) the markets over the next 3-6 months.

About the Analyst Blog

Updated throughout every trading day, the Analyst Blog provides analysis from Zacks Equity Research about the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets.

About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous analyst coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=5508.

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5509.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/zacksresearch

Join us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/Zacks-Investment-Research/57553657748?ref=ts

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

However, earnings per share were well below from the year-earlier figure of $3.50. This significant downfall was mainly due to significantly lower commodity prices and a steep decline in worldwide marketing margins, which more than offset production improvements and lower costs.

The Exploration and Production segment reported earnings of $725 million during the quarter, down nearly 82% year over year. The fall was mainly due to lower commodity prices, partially offset by higher volumes and lower operating costs. Daily production from the E&P segment including Canadian Syncrude averaged 1.87 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOE/d), up from 1.75 MMBOE/d in the year-ago quarter.

The year-over-year increase in production from new developments in the U.K., Russia, Norway, Vietnam, China and Canada more than offset the impact of normal field decline. To some extent, production also increased due to less unplanned downtime and the impact of production-sharing contracts.

The Refining and Marketing segment reported a loss of $52 million, compared to a profit of $664 million in the year-ago quarter. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to reduced refining volumes and worldwide lower marketing margins.

The domestic refining crude oil capacity utilization rate for the quarter averaged 93%, compared to 94% a year earlier. International capacity utilization rate averaged 72%, versus 88% last year. Worldwide utilization averaged 88%, compared to 93% in the year-ago period.

The Midstream segment (which includes the company’s 50% interest in DCP Midstream LLC) contributed $31 million to net income during the quarter, down approximately 81% year over year. The decline was due to lower realized prices and volumes.

ConocoPhillips’ earnings from its LUKOIL Investment segment came in at $682 million as against $774 million in the prior-year quarter. The year-over-year decrease came from lower realized prices, partially offset by lower taxes and higher volumes. LUKOIL’s estimated contribution to the company’s quarterly E&P volumes was 442,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

The Chemicals unit reported earnings of $67 million as against earnings of $18 million a year ago. The year-over-year improvement was mainly driven by lower operating costs.

At the end of the quarter, ConocoPhillips had $0.9 billion in cash and $30.4 billion in debt, with a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 34%. During the quarter, the company paid $700 million in dividends. ConocoPhillips generated $2.6 billion in cash from operations during the quarter and invested $2.9 billion in capital expenditures. The company maintained its total 2009 capital budget at $12.5 billion.

While turnaround in crude oil prices is beneficial to the entire sector, we are maintaining our Hold recommendation on ConocoPhillips shares given the company’s competitive disadvantages relative to its super major peers. These disadvantages include a high-cost OECD-centric asset base and heavy exposure to the relative tentative outlook for U.S. natural gas (more than a third of total volumes) and refining markets. Our preferred names in the integrated space remain ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).

Recently, Cosan SA Ltd. (CZZ), a leading producer of sugar and ethanol in the world, reported results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2009. The company has shifted the fiscal year period to March 31 from April 30. As such, fiscal year 2009 comprised only 11 months compared to 12 months in fiscal year 2008 and fourth quarter of 2009 includes 2 months versus 3 months in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The company posted net revenue of R$2,349.8 million (US$1,008.5 million), an increase of 179% year over year and R$6,270.1 million (US$3,119.5 million), an increase of 129%, during fourth quarter and fiscal 2009, respectively. EBITDA during the quarter and full year reached R$165.9 million (US$ 71.2 million) and R$718.0 million (US$357.2 million), representing an increase of 232.5% and 292.6%, respectively.

However, Cosan reported a net loss of R$40.2 million (US$17.3 million) in the fourth quarter and R$473.8 million (US$235.7 million) for fiscal 2009. After adjusting for the effects of foreign-exchange losses and goodwill amortization, as well as post tax benefits, net income would have been R$34.5 million (US$17.2 million) at the end of March 31, 2009.

At the end of March 31, net debt reached R$3,035.6 million (US$582.7 million) from just R$621.7 million at the end of April 30, 2008. The company obtained loans of R$1,888 million (US$974.2 million) to refinance debt and fund expansion plans in fiscal year 2010. It borrowed R$1.1 billion from Banco Bradesco (BBD) to refinance promissory notes issued to acquire Exxon Mobil's (XOM) fuel distribution assets in Brazil and R$788 million from Brazil's national development bank BNDES.

Cosan plans to open a new sugar and ethanol mill at Jatai in the Goias state for a total investment of R$639 million and establish a new power generation project at its Gasa mill in Sao Paulo for a total value of R$149 million.

Persistent declines in crude oil prices have reduced the demand for ethanol, raising its inventories. As such, ethanol prices have fallen in 2009 from its 2008 high. However, the sugar market is promising and prices are expected to rise by 20% by the end of 2009 due to the lower production in India, the world's largest producer of sugar. Thus, the company is expected to report net profit in the fiscal year 2010. Hence, we are bullish on Cosan.

Yield on the benchmark 10-year jumped to as high as 3.99%, the highest since August, worrying investors that mortgage rates would continue to rise on the back of higher yields on government debts.  Higher yields also heightened fears that today's auction of $11 billion in 30-year bonds might face difficulties.   Fears of rising interest rates hurt financials and homebuilders, with sectors sensitive to interest rates also bearing the brunt.  Yesterday saw mortgage rates rising higher with Fannie Mae's (NYSE:FNM) 30-year coupon hitting a high of 5.08%. Shares of companies that make automotive parts were, however, up as Chrysler was cleared to sell most of its assets to Fiat.

A weekly US inventory report that revealed crude inventory had fallen 4.38 million barrels after recording a 2.87 million increase the previous week, also dampened hopes of an incipient economic recovery.  The national average price for a gallon of gasoline rose to its highest since late October, hitting $2.63 per gallon, and increasing concerns that consumer spending will be affected. This morning the International Energy Agency added its bullish comments, trimming oil demand contraction estimates for the year.

The release of the Fed's Beige Book helped curtail some of the losses yesterday.  The report on regional economies suggested the pace of economic decline in some areas was showing signs of slowing.  The waning optimism is also partly due to the fears of inflation and government's financing needs.  Rising interest rates, too, are a cause for concern.  Although long-term rates have spiked, they, nevertheless, are modest by historical standards, with the 10-year well below its historic highs of 15% recorded in the early 1980s. And while sufficient to overshadow earlier gains in Asian markets, release of the Fed's Beige Book later in the afternoon curtailed the market's fall. According to the monthly report of 12 Fed bank districts, economic conditions remained weak, or showed signs of further deterioration from mid-April through May; however, five noted signs of moderation and several asserted expectations had improved.

Today's retail sales numbers are likely to show their first gain in three months, although helped by the gains in gasoline prices and higher demand for cars and trucks. Weekly jobless claims are estimated to have fallen 6,000 to 615,000 last week. Business inventories are likely to have matched March's drop of 1%.

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=4579.

Here are highlights from Wednesday's Analyst Blog:

Inventory Drop Supports Oil Rally

A bigger-than-expected drop in crude oil inventories and the seasonal uptick in gasoline demand is helping sustain the spectacular rally in crude oil prices that has pushed the commodity to a new high for the year.

While an improving economic outlook and favorable currency moves account for the bulk of the commodity's gains, recent moves on the inventory front have also been helpful. Crude oil stockpiles, still at multi-year highs, have been steadily coming down over the last few weeks. Including today's report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories have dropped in four of the last five weeks.

We continue to believe that there are good fundamental underpinnings for the ongoing oil rally. We continue to favor early-cycle leverage through oilfield service names, such as Weatherford (WFT) and Ensco (ESV). Our long-term favorites remain Exxon (XOM), Schlumberger (SLB) and Diamond Offshore (DO).

Want more from Zacks Equity Research? Subscribe to the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2649.

About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2677

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=4580.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

In the absence of major economic posts or corporate earnings, Friday is expected to be a quiet trading day.  Stock futures, nevertheless, are pointing to a higher open with Dow Jones industrial average futures up 52 points at 8,347. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures are up 6.20 at 894.90 and Nasdaq 100 index futures are up 9.50 at 1,377.00.

Financials showed some strength yesterday, edging up 0.2%, helped by an improved credit scenario.  Among DJIA components, JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) rose 1% and 0.8%, respectively.  Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) added 2.4% and AIG (NYSE:AIG) was up 1.1%.  The 3-month Libor declined to an all-time low of 0.66%.  Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB) shares declined 9.9% after the company announced plans to sell up to $750 million new shares.  Regions Financial (NYSE:RF), which priced an offering of 400 million shares of its common stock at $4 each, plunged 16% yesterday.

With investors remaining jittery, the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, jumped to 32.7.  Earlier this week, the measure had declined below 30 for the first time since September.

Industrial shares went sharply lower as the FOMC lowered prospects of a US recovery this year and raised its unemployment projections.  Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) fell 4.7% and United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) dropped 1.9%.  Crude oil prices declined 1.6%, on weak demand concerns, sending the oil and gas industry sector shares off 3.0%.  Basic material shares fell 3.2%.  Largest U.S. aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) declined 4.1% to $9.10. Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) dropped 5.6% to $51.94. Farm equipment maker Deere (NYSE:DE) slid 6.2% to $41.57. 

Yesterday's marketplace was a clear picture of risk-aversion.  As worries grew that the swine flu outbreak could take the form of an epidemic, fearful investors turned to safe haven prospects like Treasuries, yen and US dollar bets, as well as defensive healthcare and utility plays.  The 2-year rose 4/32 despite Treasury's sale of $40 billion 2-year notes.  The yen shot up to a six-week high against the euro and the US dollar gained 1.1% against a basket of currencies.  The Vix, CBOE "fear factor" index jumped 4.1% to 38.32. Volumes on the NYSE sank to a cautious 1.4 billion shares, with decliners outpacing advancing shares by more than two to one. S&P shares sank 1.0%; NASDAQ dropped 0.9%; and the DJIA edged 0.6% lower.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average declined 10.6%, sending shares of airlines sharply lower for a 10.6% drop in the Amex Airline Index, with UAL (NASDAQ:UAUA) plunging 14.3%, and Continental Airlines (NYSE:CAL) registering an 11.6% decline. Consumer discretionary share prices also took a beating with Carnival Group (NYSE:CCL) declining 13.5% and Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE:RCL) plunging 16.3%. Crude oil prices, already under the pressures of falling demand and supply surfeits, dropped $1.41, or 2.7%, to $50.14, on fears of jet fuel demand drops caused by flu-induced air travel avoidance. Flu-fears pushed commodity prices lower, with the DJ-AIG Commodity Index off 2.2% to 108.603.  Some healthcare companies nevertheless appeared to be beneficiaries of the concerns.  Mylan (NYSE:MY) jumped 12.8%, and GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) and Roche Holding (OTC:RHHBY) rose 7.7% and 4.3%, respectively.

The second week of heavy earnings reports continued with Corning (NYSE:GLW), Humana (NYSE:HUM), Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and Whirlpool (NYSE:WHR) reporting better-than-expected results.  General Motors (NYSE:GM) announced its latest viability proposal, including 21,000 additional job cuts and 40% dealership eliminations, requests for $11.6 billion in additional government rescue aid, which would put the government stake at over 50%, and plans to use stock to repay half of the $20.4 billion owed to UAW retiree health care funds, taking their share of the firm to about 39%.  Bondholders, asked to swap $27 billion debt for a 10% ownership position were reportedly unhappy with the deal, planning a counteroffer within 10 days. GM (NYSE:GM) shares, nevertheless, were at the top of the list of DJIA gainers with a 20.7% advance.

Reports that Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), as well as Regions Financial (NYSE:RF), Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) will need to raise capital sent financials lower. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) shares, off 5.1%, were also impacted by a Richard Bove ratings downgrade to "hold" from "buy."  US equities in general were struck by a Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) ratings trim to "market weight" from "overweight," opining US shares overvalued against their peers.

Today's primary economic posts include an April read of consumer confidence, expected to show slight improvement to 29.9 from 26.0. Meanwhile the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index for February is expected to have matched January's 18.97% drop, with only a slightly lower decline of 18.7%.

Chicago, IL - April 9, 2009 - Zacks Equity Research picks Research In Motion (RIMM) as Bull of the Day and Wilmington Trust Corp. (WL) as Bear of the Day. In addition, the analysts at Zacks Equity Research discuss the latest on Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Schlumberger (SLB).

Full analysis of all these stocks is available at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2678

Bull of the Day

Research In Motion (RIMM), the manufacturer of BlackBerry smart-phone devices, continues with robust financial performance in spite of facing a global economic recession and an extremely competitive industry. The company's fourth quarter (ended February 28) fiscal 2009 financial results were well above our expectations.

Newly launched high-end Blackberry handsets experienced significant market traction as net new subscriber additions reached record breaking levels in the reported quarter. We expect the smart-phone device market to gain further momentum should economic conditions improve and as demand for portable mobile access remains firm on a global basis.

RIMM has a solid pipeline of innovative feature-rich products to be launched by mid-fiscal 2010. Management also provided an encouraging financial outlook. We maintain our Buy rating and the same valuation target.

Bear of the Day

Wilmington Trust Corp. (WL) is scheduled to release its 1Q09 earnings results on April 24, 2009 with a conference call schedule later on the same day.

We remain concerned with WL's exposure to commercial real estate-construction loans (about 20% of the portfolio). Within the construction loan portfolio, 75% loans are for residential construction/land development.

Though WL lends mainly to smaller homebuilders in the Delaware Valley (60% of the portfolio) and not to national homebuilders, we expect a further deterioration in the credit quality on account of the ongoing weakness in sales. 

Recent Analysis from the Analyst Blog

Oil Inventories Higher Again 

Crude oil prices have pulled back from their mid-$50's high for the year in the face of continued concerns about the health of the global economy. While we expect the commodity's near-term price movement to continue mirroring the evolving macro economic picture, we do not expect it to revisit its Dec'08 lows. We believe that oil prices have troughed already and are currently in a consolidation phase.

The continued anemic demand and the strong build in excess production capacity over the last few months are expected to prevent any sustained price rallies. We continue to advocate some defensive positioning in the group through Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX), but are increasingly getting more comfortable with building positions in the deepwater drillers, such as Schlumberger (SLB), the global oilfield service franchise.

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2649.

About the Bull and Bear of the Day

Every day, the analysts at Zacks Equity Research select two stocks that are likely to outperform (Bull) or underperform (Bear) the markets over the next 3-6 months.

About the Analyst Blog

Updated throughout every trading day, the Analyst Blog provides analysis from Zacks Equity Research about the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets.

About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=2677.

About Zacks 

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks InvestmentResearch is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=4582.

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Contact:Mark VickeryWeb Content Editor312-265-9380Visit: www.zacks.com

Crude oil prices rose above $53 on Friday, boosted by optimism that the G-20's efforts to resuscitate the global economy may in turn lead to a rebound in energy demand. The benchmark crude delivery for May was up more than 2% to $53.90 a barrel in early trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On Thursday, the summit of G-20 nations agreed to provide more than $1 trillion in emergency funds to help nations in the throes of the deepest recession since 1930. It also pledged for some accounting flexibility in toxic assets of U.S. banks. Consequently, oil futures made their biggest one-day percentage gain in three weeks.

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Here are highlights from Wednesday's Analyst Blog:

Buy 3SBio Up to $10

3SBio Inc. (SSRX) is a China-based biotech company focused on developing and marketing therapeutics for nephrology, oncology and cancer supportive care. The company's flagship product EPIAO is the number 1 brand in China's EPO [erythropoietin] market.

Its second lead product TPIAO has gained rapid physician acceptance for thrombocytopenia and is making a meaningful contribution to the company's top line growth. Recent deal with US-based AMAG Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMAG) will boost its expansion into IV Iron market.

Anadigics a Hold on Guidance

ANADIGICS, Inc. (ANAD) designs and manufactures radio frequency integrated circuits (ICs) for the wireless and broadband markets. Anadigics earlier reported revenues of $45.2 million in Q4:08, down 33.0% year over year and down 22.1% quarter over quarter.

Going forward, ANAD expects a decline of 35% year over year in Q1:09. In addition, the under-utilization of fabs will put pressure on gross margins. Management also stated that the fab is under-utilized and the company is not starting a lot of wafers due to the inventory position at the end of Q4. The company is looking for inventory turns above five in the coming quarter.

PetroChina Remains Expensive

PetroChina Company Ltd. (PTR) is the largest integrated oil company in China. The company's activities include: the exploration, development, production and sale of crude oil and natural gas; the refining, transportation, storage and marketing of petroleum products; the manufacture and sale of chemical products; and the transmission of natural gas, crude oil and refined products.

PetroChina ADRs have been weak in recent days, in line with the rest of the group, due to the pullback in crude oil prices and the broad turmoil in global markets. But they are hardly cheap. Based on most conventional valuation metrics, the ADRs are currently trading at a premium to the Chinese and other emerging market peers.

Teekay Shipping Stays Afloat

We are maintaining our Hold on Teekay Corporation (TK), but reducing our target price to $15. TK reported 3rd quarter EPS of $1.29 before nonrecurring items, above consensus and our estimate of $1.12, largely reflecting higher-than-expected revenue growth.

We are cutting our 2008 diluted EPS estimate to $3.75 from $4.00, as well as our 2009 estimate to $1.15 from $2.75, as we have moderated our revenue assumptions. Results should reflect the impact of global economic weakening on both spot rates and shipping volumes. We note that TK released restated financial results for the first half related to changes in the accounting treatment for long-term incentive compensation.

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About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2677

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=4580.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

In its weekly inventory report released earlier today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude oil stocks totaled 326.6 million barrels for the week ended January 9, 2008. This represents a better-than-expected inventory build of 1.2 million barrels. Current crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, are now 13.8% above the year-earlier level, highlighting the imbalance between growing supplies and shrinking demand. Current stocks provide for 22.6 days of supply, significantly above the year-earlier level of 18.7 days.

As the above EIA chart shows, current inventories remain above the 5-year average (the shaded region represents the 5-year range). While the overall inventory build came in better than expected, the build at Cushing, Oklahoma -- the official delivery point for the NYMEX futures contract -- reached a new record of 33 million barrels, double the year-earlier level of 16.5 million barrels.

In refined products, gasoline inventories increased 2.1 million barrels, providing for 23.9 days of supply, up from gasoline stocks providing 23 days of supply this time last year. Distillate stocks, which includes heating oil, increased a greater than expected 6.4 million barrels, taking current inventories above the high point of the 5-year range and 11.1% above the year-earlier level. The above-average distillate stock-build dashed hopes of weather support to prices given the chilly weather in the heating oil consuming regions.

This is another addition to the growing list of negative news for crude oil prices, which have been unable to get support from OPEC's extraordinary cut of more than 2 million barrels. The growing inventory levels, both in the U.S. as well as in the other OECD markets, reflect falling demand due to the uncertain economic times. It will be hard for the commodity to stabilize and consolidate given this lack of visibility on the economic front.

Having said that, we believe that further downside risk is limited than the upside potential from current levels. We would take advantage of the weakness in energy stocks in the face of such bearish reports to make new positions or add to existing ones in such quality energy names, as ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Schlumberger (SLB) and Transocean (RIG).

Read the full analyst report on XOM.

Read the full analyst report on CVX.

Read the full analyst report on SLB.

Read the full analyst report on RIG.

Hess has slashed its 2009 capital budget in response to the pullback in crude oil prices and credit market turmoil, essentially bringing its outlays inline with projected internal cash flows. The company plans to spend $3.2 billion next year, down from the roughly $5 billion budgeted for 2008.

We consider the move as prudent given the macro backdrop. While we continue to see upstream momentum at Hess on the back of the company's large inventory of exploration and development projects, our Hold recommendation remains unchanged at this stage.

Read the full analyst report on HES

The reason I'm confident that the Dow Jones industrial average will top 10,000 before it hits 6,000 is that stocks are a leading indicator. They anticipate recoveries, typically turning upward 6-9 months before the economy as a whole. We are already one year into the recession, so I'm guessing we are getting close to the point where stocks will turn the corner. When you add in the fact that valuations and yields are the most attractive I've seen in my adult investing life, the outlook for equities is quite good.

Oil, on the other hand, reflects mostly immediate, near-term supply and demand. If the economy gets worse before it gets better, stocks might see the light at the end of the tunnel, but oil won't. It can't. Prices will keep falling as demand deteriorates in real time and the current supply glut gets worse.

Remember, oil is expensive to store. For the most part, it won't just sit around waiting to be used if there is a lack of demand. (Some can be stored, but not that much). It must be sold and used at whatever the current clearing price is.

And we have yet to see the magnitude of supply cutbacks in the oil market that we've seen in aluminum, copper and other commodities. The world is continuing to pump out millions and millions of barrels per oil. 

Here are a few facts to consider:

1. Oil has averaged a nominal price above $50/barrel in just three years in the history of the world: 2005 ($50.04/barrel), 2006 ($58.30/barrel) and 2007 ($64.20/barrel).
   
2. On an inflation-adjusted basis, oil has averaged an annual price above $50/barrel for just 12 of the 62 years of the post-war era.
   
3. The average inflation-adjusted price of oil in the post-war era is $33.65/barrel.
   
4. Oil traded below $25/barrel as recently as 2002.

As the saying goes, "This time it's different" are the four most-expensive words in investing. So why not $25/barrel oil?

The truth is, I was amazed during the recent oil price retreat how quick people were to say that $100/barrel was the "right" price for oil. $100/barrel is off-the-charts historically, and completely neglects both the supply and demand impacts thathigh oil prices have.

To put it another way, stock prices are now trading where they were in 1997. What's to say oil shouldn't be trading where it was in 2002?

The truth is, I have no idea where oil prices are headed. But I don't think it's a gimme that they're going back to $100/barrel. In fact, if you gave me 2-1 odds, I'd bet they hit $25/barrel first.

PS: One more thought about oil. Even if you stronglydisagree with me and think crude oil is a screaming buy, please be careful before you buy a crude oil futures ETF like the US Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO). Oil is in a violent contango right now. A fund like USO faces a 3% monthly headwind from contango right now, meaning oil prices must rise about 3% each month just to offset the losses from rolling contracts forward.  Until that situation is reversed, investing in crude oil futures could be challenging ... even if I'm wrong about crude oil prices.

This from Today’s Financial News:

If you think the situation is bleak here in the United States, you would wet your pants if you took an in-depth look at Russia’s economy.

Its stock market seems to be closed more than it is open. Its currency is plunging. And its government is running out of options and money to fix the situation. Russia makes America look like we are sitting atop a booming economy.

Putin’s downturn could lead to some easy profit…

His line of argument makes sense in the strange, warped world that has emerged in 2008: If you throw billions at the empty suits who made high-risk loans and the empty heads who committed to them, how about making it easier for those who are willing and able to take out a solid mortgage… by reducing mortgage rates and fees and by “providing incentives such as a buyer tax credit for the purchase of all types of…

XX Sean's note -- Funny, isn't it, how eager Treasury Secretary Paulson is to throw $40 billion at a pop at A.I.G, but there's great rending of garments and gnashing of teeth over a proposed $50 billion loan package for the auto industry. Heck, even Australia is giving its car makers $6 billion over 15 years.

Europe, Asia Markets Surge on China Stimulus Plan

China's economic growth slowed to 9 percent in the third quarter, the lowest level in five years and a sharp decline from 11.9 percent the year before -- perilously low for a government that needs to create jobs for millions of new workers and for other Asian countries that have come to depend heavily on Chinese demand.

Believing in Estimates Means 20% Advance for S&P 500

The average Wall Street forecast calls for the S&P 500 to break out of a bear market and surge 20 percent to 1,118 by Dec. 31 -- more than twice as much as the biggest-ever advance to close out a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Strategists were even more bullish at the beginning of the year, predicting that the S&P 500 would end 2008 at a record 1,632.

OPEC president: Oil cuts likely if no price rally

Saudi Aramco Says Oil Price Falls May Curb Investment

Investment is also needed to expand production capacity to meet long-term demand growth, Chief Executive Officer Abdallah Jum'ah said in a handout distributed today at an industry summit in Beijing.

Saudi Aramco to Cut December Crude Oil Supplies to Asia by as Much as 6% Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest state oil company, will cut crude supplies to Asia in December for the first time in at least a year as demand slumps for naphtha and diesel fuel.

Gold Advances in London Trading as Higher Oil, Weaker Dollar Boost Demand Gold rose for a second day in London as higher crude-oil prices and a weaker dollar boosted demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation.

Finally, in Sunday's New York Times, Al Gore proposes "a five-part plan to repower America with a commitment to producing 100% of our electricity from carbon-free sources within 10 years."

This from Taipan Daily:

Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking.

— Vice–President-Elect Joe Biden

Just a few weeks ago, Vice–President-elect Joe Biden (back when he was plain old Senator Joe Biden) promised the world that Barack Obama will be “tested” by America’s…

The PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN led the way with 66.6% gains in October, as crude oil prices continued to slide.

Click here to read the list in full

If we have a look at the evolution of the index sub-components, we can see that the retailing and construction sectors have long been plumbing the bottom. What is new over the last few months is that the manufacturing sector has steadily been joining them as export growth has weakened. This means quite a sharp recession is on the way in Germany, in my opinion. Germany's leading economic institutes this month slashed their joint forecast for growth in what is Europe's biggest economy for next year, forecasting an expansion of just 0.2 percent in 2009, and even this may well turn out to be excessively optimistic - the risk of annual contraction is now a non-negligable one, especially if we are going by the Federal Statistics Office Non-calendar-adjusted reading, since there will be one working day less in 2009.

" This impression is only confirmed by October's falsh PMI reading which indicated the sharpest decline in German private sector activity since mid-2003," Tim Moore, an economist at Markit Economics, said in a statement. "Market demand was shaken by the latest global financial turmoil, as firms became increasingly concerned about the economic outlook and access to credit."

The rate of expansion in the German economy seems to have dropped back to its lowest level in more than five years in October. The preliminary flash estimate of the composite purchasing managers' index for what is the euro zone's biggest economy fell to a 64-month low of 46.7 in October from 48.5 in September. Manufacturing activity in contracted for the third straight month with the reading plunging to 43.3 from a final reading of 47.4 in September.

In addition, economic activity in the service sector stalled for the first time since January as the flash reading slipped to 49.7 from 50.2.


However, the data showed input price inflation eased to its slowest for more than three years in October, with the month-on-month fall in the index was the largest since the series began in January 1998. This reinforces data out this morning (Friday) from the German Federal Statistics Office which showed that German import prices fell 1.0% month-on-month in September after declining 0.8% in the August, as crude oil prices continued to pull back from their record high in July. On an annual basis, the rate of import price increase slipped back to 7.6% from 9.3% in August.

The data suggests that the German economy may well continue to be in recession in the fourth quarter (assuming that the forthcoming 3rd quarter data do show a contraction) as demand across the global economy continues to falter, a process which will hit an export dependent economy like the German one especially hard.

“The latest flash PMI indicates the alarming extent to which the financial crisis has developed rapidly into an economic crisis, with the Eurozone economy contracting at the fastest rate for over ten years in October. Manufacturers are the hardest hit, with the sector contracting at a pace exceeding even the most pessimistic of forecasts polled by Reuters.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.

The eurozone economy continued the contractaction registered in the third quarter in October at a speed not seen since the start of the euro in 1999, with the kock-on effects of the global bank crisis hitting manufacturing industry especially hard, and making a huge dent in industry’s order books.These are the grim conclusions which can be drawn from the latest - Flash - Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) readings for the economies of 15-country currency zone. The low readings registered are provisional, but experience shows that they are unlikely to be that far off the mark, and they obviously make even more likely substantial cuts in European Central Bank interest rates over the coming months, especially since price pressures also cooling rapidly as overcapacity issues yawn before us. The results only serve to add to concern that the recession which the eurozone in all likelihood entered on April 1 2008 that will prove to be a long drawn out and protracted affair.

Eurozone Composite Reading Falls Sharply


- Flash Eurozone Services Business Activity Index at 46.9 (48.4 in Sep.); lowest since Oct. 2001

- Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI(3) at 41.3 (44.5 in Sep.); new record low

- Flash Eurozone Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 40.5 (44.1 in Sep.); new record low




The Markit Flash Eurozone Composite Output Index sank to a new record low in October, signalling the steepest monthly reduction in private sector output since the survey data were first compiled in July 1998 and the fifth successive monthly contraction.

Output fell at a new record pace in manufacturing, while services activity showed the second-sharpest deterioration ever recorded, with the decline exceeded only by that seen in October 2001. Expectations of business activity in 12 months' time in the service sector plummeted and hit a new record low - and by a wide margin. Falling output and business confidence were linked to a record monthly drop in demand for goods and services, as measured by the composite new orders index. Overall, new orders have now fallen for six consecutive months.

The “composite” purchasing managers’ index, covering manufacturing and services, slumped from 46.9 in September to 44.6 in October, the lowest since the survey began in July 1998. A figure below 50 is taken to indicate a contraction in activity. Eurozone manufacturers’ new orders fell at the sharpest rate recorded, led by a slump in export orders. Service sector new business did not contract as fast but still saw the second steepest fall on record.

We only have a breakdown of country secific indices for France and Germany, and French manufacturing is evidently performing a lot worse than its German equivalent, although the contraction in German industry is getting sharper by the month, and anecdotal evidence does suggest that there may be much worse to come as demand from the very important customer base in Eastern Europe comes virtually to a dead stop in the wake of the credit crunch. So even Germany saw private-sector output contracting for a second consecutive month, and business sentiment for the next 12 months sank to the lowest level registered there since records began in June 1997.


The composite reading for manufacturers' new orders fell at the steepest rate yet registered by the survey, led down by a record fall in new export orders. In comparison, new business in the service sector showed a more modest rate of decline, though still posted the second largest contraction yet seen by the survey.

Input price inflation, on the other hand, having hit a near-eight-year high back in July, eased back again for the third successive month in October, dropping to the weakest pace since July 2005. The monthly fall in the rate of price increases was the sharpest ever recorded by the survey, led by a steep easing in manufacturers' input price inflation, which in turn reflected lower commodity prices and an increased willingness among suppliers to cut prices to sell stock. Input cost inflation also moderated in the service sector.

Output prices rose only slightly during the month, the rate of increase having slowed for the third successive month from July's record high to reach the weakest since December 2005. Upwards pressure on charges was alleviated by weaker growth of input costs, but also reflected discounting in the face of falling demand.

“Price pressures are collapsing alongside falling demand, which will hit profits further but will help pave the way for lower interest rates.” Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit

Deceleration in Germany's Manufacturing Sector Accelerates

"October's PMI indicated the sharpest decline in German private sector activity
since mid-2003," Tim Moore, an economist at Markit Economics, said in a
statement. "Market demand was shaken by the latest global financial turmoil, as
firms became increasingly concerned about the economic outlook and access to
credit."

The rate of expansion in the German economy dropped back to its lowest level in more than five years in October. The preliminary flash estimate of the composite purchasing managers' index for what is the euro zone's biggest economy fell to a 64-month low of 46.7 in October from 48.5 in September. Manufacturing activity in contracted for the third straight month with the reading plunging to 43.3 from a final reading of 47.4 in September.

In addition, economic activity in the service sector stalled for the first time since January as the flash reading slipped to 49.7 from 50.2.


However, the data showed input price inflation eased to its slowest for more than three years in October, with the month-on-month fall in the index was the largest since the series began in January 1998. This reinforces data out this morning (Friday) from the German Federal Statistics Office which showed that German import prices fell 1.0% month-on-month in September after declining 0.8% in the August, as crude oil prices continued to pull back from their record high in July. On an annual basis, the rate of import price increase slipped back to 7.6% from 9.3% in August.

The data suggests that the German economy may well continue to be in recession in the fourth quarter (assuming that the forthcoming 3rd quarter data do show a contraction) as demand across the global economy continues to falter, a process which will hit an export dependent economy like the German one especially hard.

French Manufacturing Now In Sharp Retreat


French manufacturing activity contracted at its fastest pace in a decade in October, while new orders in both manufacturing and services fell at their sharpest pace in 10 years. The flash estimates of the Markit/CDAF PMI showed the headline figure for manufacturing fell to 40.8 in October, its lowest since data was first collected in April 1998, from 43.0 in September.




The services sector, which accounts for around two-thirds of the euro zone's second largest economy, saw its index slip to 48.8 from 50.1 in September, while the new orders sub component fell to 45.3 - its lowest since the survey began in May 1998.




With the new order index for manufacturing also hitting a series low - it fell to 34.7 in October from 37.5 in September, all the indications are that tough times lie ahead given the extent of the worldwide economic slowdown.


According to the latest estimate from France's national statistics office INSEE, the French economy contracted in Q3 2008, if that is the case I am left asking myself which of the big four eurozone economies could possibly be expected to have expanded in the July to September period. Certainly not the Spanish one, which while not technically in recession yet (you need to consecutive quarters of negative growth to classify as being in recession) can hardly have expanded. The German economy almost certainly contracted, and while the Italian one could sneak a surprise "horses-nose" expansion (given the low level it had reached in the 2nd quarter) I think it is unlikely. So here we go - recession in the eurozone.

France's gross domestic product probably shrank by 0.1 percent in the third quarter after a contraction of 0.3 percent in the three months through June, according to the latest Insee estimate. The economy is also likely to shrink 0.1 percent in the final three months to cut growth to 0.9 percent for the full year, the slowest pace since 1993, Insee added.

"Unfortunately nothing here indicates that we've hit bottom," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit. "The availability of credit is definitely becoming a problem and if that doesn't turn around quickly then output numbers will probably follow those order book numbers down."

The losses among banks, insurers and money managers may spark the next round of writedowns on CDOs after $660 billion in subprime-related losses. They may force lenders to post more reserves against losses after governments worldwide announced $3 trillion in financial-industry rescue packages since last month, according to Barclays Capital.

– Meanwhile, Reuters reports that U.S. banks will need more $700 billion in government cash injections to stay afloat because “banks cannot predict how many of their loans will sour because they do…

This from Taipan Daily:

The petrocrats were richly rewarded as crude oil climbed to new heights. Now a sharp decline in the price of oil threatens to tear their world apart. A time for drastic action could be at hand…

Today I want to talk about a situation that feels like a ticking time bomb - a time bomb that could go off sooner rather than later. It starts with…

This from The Daily Reckoning’s Desidooru Saloon blog:

Remember when speculators were getting blamed for high oil prices?  Remember how I thought it was bogus?  Now oil is down more than 50% from its summer highs.  And this time, I think it’s safe to say speculators have a hand in it.

It looks as if the…

Today, crude oil prices plunged below $70 a barrel. Oil has now lost more than 50% of its July record high.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery dropped as low as $69.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its lowest trading level since Aug. 22, 2007.

Crude has now fallen 53 percent since surging to a record $147.27 on July 11.

Inventories are overflowing, demand is declining… and, more importantly, amateur speculators have lost their appetite. Today’s move… and the further decline I anticipate for the rest of the year… should clean up with the notion that the surge past $140 was due to “demand”…

This from Today’s Financial News:

Thanks to fears of a strong global recession and larger-than-expected downturns in pivotal countries like China and India, crude prices are on the decline. Right now, a barrel of oil is selling for nearly half of what it did during its record-smashing peak just a few months ago.

But we have not seen anything yet. Crude prices will continue to fall. And if you invest accordingly, you can put some hefty profits in your pocket.

Earlier today, OPEC announced it has significantly reduced its oil-demand forecast. The group says it now believes…

This from Today’s Financial News:

Thanks to fears of a strong global recession and larger-than-expected downturns in pivotal countries like China and India, crude prices are on the decline. Right now, a barrel of oil is selling for nearly half of what it did during its record-smashing peak just a few months ago.

But we have not seen anything yet. Crude prices will continue to fall. And if you invest accordingly, you can put some hefty profits in your pocket.

Earlier today, OPEC announced it has significantly reduced its oil-demand forecast. The group says it now believes…

This from Today’s Financial News:

Thanks to fears of a strong global recession and larger-than-expected downturns in pivotal countries like China and India, crude prices are on the decline. Right now, a barrel of oil is selling for nearly half of what it did during its record-smashing peak just a few months ago.

But we have not seen anything yet. Crude prices will continue to fall. And if you invest accordingly, you can put some hefty profits in your pocket.

Earlier today, OPEC announced it has significantly reduced its oil-demand forecast. The group says it now believes…

It's a scary time to be a direct investor in oil. But Byron King says is one way of sidestepping the wild price swings: investing in tanker ships.

"As long as people continue to use oil," says Bryon, "there will be some consistency to the tanker business."

There is a relatively tight market for charters. And many good reasons why there won't be a capacity glut in coming years.

  This from Rude Awakening:

About 62% of the world’s oil -- over 2 billion barrels per year -- is transported via tanker ships.

As the accompanying map shows, the tanker routes of the world are pretty much where you would expect. Most of the exported oil moves out of the Middle East and West Africa toward North America, Europe and Asia. The rest of the world’s oil moves by pipeline, mostly through Eurasia and Russia.

Here’s the general process. Large tankers load up with crude oil. Then the ships sail across the sea to their destinations. They discharge the cargo. The tankers take on ballast and begin the voyage back to pick up another load. This is the life of a tanker ship.

Let’s go into a bit more detail.

The cost to hire a tanker is called the charter rate. This rate varies according to the size and the characteristic of each tanker and the general availability of ships. That is, in a tight market, shipowners can command higher charter rates.

There are about 4,000 tankers available for hire in the international market. Of course, there are many different sizes and types of tankers. Panamax vessels are suited for transiting through the relatively narrow locks of the Panama Canal. Suezmax tankers are optimized to transit the Suez Canal.

Still other tankers -- large vessels called “very large crude carriers” (VLCCs) -- are more suitable for long hauls over open water. VLCCs are used mainly to ship oil from the Middle East in large volumes, more than 2 million barrels a ship.

This description barely scratches the surface. But you can see that the tanker industry is complex. Yet as long as people continue to use oil -- a safe bet -- there will be some consistency to the tanker business. Load. Sail. Unload. Turn around. Sail back. Do it again.

Are there any risks involved in investing in the tanker business? Sure.

Remember the Exxon Valdez in 1989? Exxon’s big ship hit a rock south of Valdez, Alaska, and spilled 11 million gallons of oil. What a mess, right? Exxon was litigating the punitive damages in the U.S. Supreme Court as recently as this past spring, 19 years after the fact.