The following appeared in July’s Business Diary Botswana:

Speaking at a seminar in October 2006 devoted to the country’s efforts towards economic diversification, Happy Fidzani, Executive Secretary of the Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis (BIDPA), warned that the government’s “heavy confidence” in its mining sector–namely rough diamond extraction through Debswana, the joint-venture mining firm operated in partnership with South Africa’s De Beers and dating back to the late 1960s–had created a welfare-like, “parasitic” dependency for revenue upon which the nation’s non-mineral sector was habitually tied. Largely unaware of just how prophetic his words would soon turn out to be, Fidzani told the audience that shocks originating from the mining industry were still “easily felt” across the economy, and that the government, despite its ceaseless rhetoric and campaigning about the importance of diversity, was as reliant as ever on just one resource. Less than three years later

...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /This post accompanies my recent piece on Sweden. I have been scratching my head and trying to see what could be learnt from making a comparison between Finland and Sweden. Some of the differences are obvious - one is in the euro, and the other isn't, once can adjust monetary policy and currency values, and the other can't. Others are less so. Finland's goods trade surplus has been declining steadily since joining EMU while Sweden's has remained relatively constant. And Swedish males live on average three years longer than their Finnish counterparts. So what is important here, and why? And if convergence theory has anything positive to be said for it, shouldn't we be able to observe so sort of convergence going on here.br /br /br /First, and just to remind ourselves, here is the chart from Claus Vistesen which shows what the relation ...

In a letter sent to employees Monday, Citigroup Inc. (C) Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said the bank has been operating at a profit through the first two months of the year for the first time since the third quarter of 2007 - the last time it recorded a profit. But even as the news was hitting Wall Street, a report revealed that regulators are “contingency planning” ways to further stabilize Citigroup if needed.  And yet another report said major banks could face “catastrophic” losses on derivatives if the economy worsens. “I am most encouraged with the strength of our business so far in 2009,” Pandit wrote in an internal memorandum obtained by Bloomberg. “In fact, we are profitable through the first two months of 2009 and are having our best quarter-to-date performance since the third quarter of ...

Alex’s Notes: yes we post alot of articles that may be considered doom and gloom, and even downright depressing, but I want to take a moment and remind you dear reader, that there ARE solutions. There is always two sides to every trade.

My colleagues actually produced a movie about what is going on almost a decade ago, that accurately predicts everything we are currently seeing in the economy right now.

There are two kinds of people in todays markets:

1. Scared to death because they have no idea what the hell is going on

2. Cool as ice, because not only did they predict this, they also were positioned to benefit from it as it unfolded.

Its not too late. Gold and silver are the only way in the unfolding crisis to protect the wealth you have left.

Got gold?

**********

...

div align=”justify”strongemI warned way back in June 2008 of the dangers of a potential economic crisis in Eastern Europe/em/strong in a href=”http://deadcatsbouncing.blogspot.com/2008/06/eastern-europe-next-bursting-bubble.html”span style=”color:#990000;”Eastern Europe: The Next Bursting Bubble?/span/a and the global economic deterioration since then has hugely increased the risks of implosion. Two weeks ago, I indicated the downside risks to Eurozone banks and the Euro itself from exposure to the region. A report this week from Moody’s, the credit rating agency, saying it could downgrade banks with subsidiaries in Eastern Europe, has sparked fresh concern over the Eurozone banking sector, leading to spiking CDS spreads for the most exposed banks such as UniCredit (45% exposure in risk-weighted assets to EE) and Swedbank (29%). emstrongThe chart below, based on BIS statistics, illustrates the debt exposure of European banks to each Eastern European economy/strong/em and Austria stands out as having disproportionate exposure relative to the size of its own economy, particularly …

The steel business faces its biggest hurdle in 60 years with some analysts predicting double digit production cuts in 2009. Now, a sudden change in China trade policy may spell even more trouble for Western steelmakers, as Beijing is currently considering measures to shore up its ailing steel industry with new export policies.

According to World Steel Dynamics, a U.S. steel consulting firm, steel production could fall next year by 13.9% compared with this year. This downturn comes after a long period of growth in the steel industry. In fact, output has grown every year since 1998 - soaring from 777 million metric tons a decade ago to 1.34 billion metric tons in 2007.

The catalyst behind the expansion has been a robust world economy and a steep rise in demand in China - by far the world’s biggest steel producing and consuming nation, accounting for more than a third

...

The steel business faces its biggest hurdle in 60 years with some analysts predicting double digit production cuts in 2009. Now, a sudden change in China trade policy may spell even more trouble for Western steelmakers, as Beijing is currently considering measures to shore up its ailing steel industry with new export policies. According to World Steel Dynamics, a U.S. steel consulting firm, steel production could fall next year by 13.9% compared with this year. This downturn comes after a long period of growth in the steel industry. In fact, output has grown every year since 1998 - soaring from 777 million metric tons a decade ago to 1.34 billion metric tons in 2007. The catalyst behind the expansion has been a robust world economy and a steep rise in demand in China - by far the world’s biggest steel producing ...

Market conditions have recently looked promising for investors looking to get into a blue chip stock at deeply discounted rates. GM stock took a massive beating last week, closing at a 50 year low of $4.89 on October 10th. Forecasts portraying the future sales automobiles show a significant decline in sales due to the difficulties for consumers to obtain credit for purchase. Incentives by the auto industry have increased demand, but the problem of credit remains. While panic gripped the exchange last week, this morning seems to be showing a bit of that silver lining. The larger question to ask is: Is now the right time to jump into GM?

Speaking on condition of anonymity, executives at GM and Chrysler have both indicated that the market is ripe for such a consolidation. Auto manufacturers such as GM, Chrysler, and Ford could benefit from such a merger. Decreased costs would cut

...

The outlook rating for Russia's banking system was changed today from "stable" to "negative" by Moody's Investors Services. The Banking System Outlook Report (published today) clited slowing asset growth, higher inflation, the slump in equities and funds leaving the country, all of which could result in deteriorating fundamentals for banks, according to the credit rating agency. Moody's thus joins the other two large credit rating agencies - Fitch Ratings and Standard and Poor's in downgrading at least a part of the Russian financial system. Fitch said in a report last week that Russian real estate and construction companies were the most at risk as domestic and international banks curb lending, while Russia's credit outlook was cut to ``stable'' from ``positive'' at Standard & Poor's on Sept. 19. S&P's cited the growing pressure on Russian authorities to spend resources from the National Wealth Fund, undermining the nation's ...

Dow Jones 'Financial News'By Jason Corcoran in Moscow Frazzled Russian investors have seen their domestic markets zigzag up and down like an erratic heartbeat on a cardiac monitor for the past month.The RTS, the benchmark for foreign investors, plummeted by 6.5% to 1722 on August 7 after the outbreak of hostilities in the Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia while the rouble-denominated Micex index slid by 5.3% to 1360.The falling markets were resuscitated by Thursday last week after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev halted the invasion of Georgia and called an end to the fighting. The RTS rebounded to around its previous level, passing 1800 by the end of Thursday. The Micex closed at 1445, up 2.3% on the day.The RTS had seen its value knocked by 24%, or $63bn, on July 24 after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin accused domestic ...