In this piece from Michael Allen's Democracy Digest, it's hard to think what or who he left out ... a real parade of names and ideas from the Kremlin critic community.

The ruling elite's "schizophrenic behavior" reflects a contradictory duality in its regression to a traditional political paradigm based on restoring superpower status and fabricating external enemies while aspiring to be integrated into Western business and culture.

Engagement with Russia should be multidimensional, integrating the values-based and pragmatic approach advocated in the 2006 Council on Foreign Relations report prepared by Steve Sestanovich and Francis Fukuyama's realistic Wilsonianism, while also cautiously reflecting Robert Kagan's imperative to resist the new authoritarian offensive and David Kramer's understandable skepticism about the Kremlin's willingness to engage.

Russia is struggling to retain its great power status and, lacking any meaningful political model or ideology to

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Given all the news this week of Russia and Italy's South Stream deal with Turkey in exchange for a nuclear power plant, I thought I would repost an article written by Robert Amsterdam last fall in Energy Risk on Turkey's political pipelines.

FROM OCT. 2008, ENERGY RISK:

Turkey's political pipelines

Turkey's strategic position at the crossroads of East and West has put it at the centre of a geopolitical tug of war, with energy supply a key driver. Robert Amsterdam examines the energy policies being brought to bear in the region

Turkey's role in global affairs is defined by its geostrategic importance as the bridge between Europe and the Near East. Following Russia's invasion and occupation of Georgia in August, which caused considerable energy supply jitters, Turkey was once again thrust into the spotlight as the European

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As attested to by the large amount of coverage of the recent US-China Strategic and Economic Dialog [0] [1], [2], [3], [4],[5] China looms large in any discussion of the world economy. One of the most important contributors to the informed discussion on this subject was Brad Setser, at the Council on Foreign Affairs and before that at RGE Monitor. Unfortunately, Dr. Setser will be leaving the blogosphere, so his insights will be missed (although fortunately for us, he'll be adding his input at the NEC, where we all wish him well).

So now, there'll be even a greater need for reasoned analysis. One addition to the discussion is a Symposium on China's impact on the global economy just published in Pacific Economic Review (August 2009). From my introductory chapter to the symposium:

Over the past decade, China's presence

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Doyle McManus has an opinion piece in the LA Times arguing that Obamamania has come to end, citing the cold reception he got from Russian audiences.  Good riddance, in our opinion, as the world could use a few less cults of personality, and a little more focus on the pragmatic and substantive issues.  McManus grabs a good quote out of Sestanovich on the reset diplomacy, but there seems to be a misunderstanding on the Russia-Iran play.  McManus speculates that Russia "may be right" that their differences with Washington over Iran may not be solvable.  This overlooks two critical points, one being that Moscow is actively opposed to any change in the status quo on Iran (even Nicholas Gvosdev admits this), and secondly, whether or not the Kremlin even has any real influence on Tehran.It is not hard ...

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days (while touring through Europe) that you may also enjoy.

• Gary Stix (Scientific American): The science of economic bubbles and busts, July 2009. The worst economic crisis since the Great Depression has prompted a reassessment of how financial markets work and how people make decisions about money.

• Matt Taibbi (Rolling Stone Magazine): The great American bubble machine, July 9-23, 2009. From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression - and they’re about to do it again.

• Bill Gross (Pimco - Investment Outlook): “Bon” or “non” appétit?, July 2009. Investors who stuffed themselves on a constant diet of asset appreciation for the past quarter-century will now be

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How does the current economic and financial downturn match up to past contractions?

In an attempt to present matters in historical context, Paul Swartz of the Council on Foreign Relations recently published a chart book showing that the current economic environment has been more severe than a typical recession. He specifically highlights the following four conclusions:

• Financial markets have dramatically improved, but from an extremely low base. Rather than pricing in disaster, they anticipate tough times ahead. For example, the charts on the spread for AAA and BAA bonds show the credit market moving from unprecedented panic to a level of fear that is merely in keeping with the worst experiences since 1945.

• Real economy indicators show signs of stabilization. See in particular the charts on manufacturing sentiment, non-farm payrolls, oil prices, and car sales. Nonetheless, many of these indicators remain worse than

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Writing at the New American, William F. Jasper is frustrated by everyone overlooking the fact that Russia and China have taken certain actions which actually exacerbated the nuclear proliferation problem.Yes, Iran and North Korea do pose some thorny problems concerning nuclear proliferation. However, before we go falling all over ourselves in a rush to invite Putin, Medvedev, Lavrov & Company to merge with us in a great cooperative effort to "solve" these problems, a little honesty is in order. To the extent that North Korea and Iran present genuine nuclear weapons threats, it is thanks to Putin, Medvedev, Lavrov & Company (and their Kremlin predecessors), along with the Beijing Boys. The missile programs in Iran and North Korea would still be back in the slingshot stage without the crucial, long-running (and ongoing) help provided by Russia and China. (For background on assistance by Moscow and Beijing for Iran's and ...

In the currency market, the dollar fell against the euro. Late Tuesday, the euro was trading at $1.2679 vs. $1.2602 on Monday.

Some analysts were surprised that, given the huge rally in equities, the dollar didn’t take more of a beating, especially given that the buck’s rally in recent months has been largely taken to be a flight to safety.

“The fact that the dollar held up despite the surge in optimism supports our view that it’s no longer just about the safe haven flows for the dollar,” said currency analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Fed Chair Bernanke did his part to happy up faces by saying, in a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations, that major financial institutions will not be allowed to fail given the fragile state of financial markets and the global economy.

Other news of the day was not so pretty, as wholesale inventories slumped 0.7% in

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More Facts on the New World Oil…

By Matt Weinschenk, Senior Analyst, White Cap Report

You may have read the brief post/article from last week detailing the madness in oil markets and the glaring profit opportunity available to those with means. (If not, read the whole Contango article here.)

Well those with means have heard the call.

Alaric Nightingale at Bloomberg is reporting that Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS)has hired the supertanker Argenta to store 2 million barrels of oil out at sea for $68,000. A quick “back-of-the-envelope” calculation shows a profit of $10 million in the thirty-one days between today and the March futures expiration.

They’ve got to find new ways to profit, since that whole “investment-banking” didn’t work out.

Meanwhile, Frontline (NYSE: FRO), one of the stocks mentioned in last week’s update, estimates that there are 80 million barrels in floating storage. And as

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The steel business faces its biggest hurdle in 60 years with some analysts predicting double digit production cuts in 2009. Now, a sudden change in China trade policy may spell even more trouble for Western steelmakers, as Beijing is currently considering measures to shore up its ailing steel industry with new export policies.

According to World Steel Dynamics, a U.S. steel consulting firm, steel production could fall next year by 13.9% compared with this year. This downturn comes after a long period of growth in the steel industry. In fact, output has grown every year since 1998 - soaring from 777 million metric tons a decade ago to 1.34 billion metric tons in 2007.

The catalyst behind the expansion has been a robust world economy and a steep rise in demand in China - by far the world’s biggest steel producing and consuming nation, accounting for more than a third

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