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Kling’s question on oil speculation

James Hamilton (June 26th, 2008) Writes:
Article Source Arnold Kling poses a question for Paul Krugman. Here's how I would answer. Kling writes: Early in 2007, the price of oil was $60 a barrel. Recently, it has been above $130 a barrel. Which of the following does Paul Krugman believe: (a) market fundamentals justified $60 a barrel then, and they justify $130 a barrel now; or (b) market fundamentals justified a much higher price in 2007? ...We know that Krugman does not believe that today's oil price is out of line with fundamentals. Krugman's view, in effect, is that if speculators artificially boost the price of oil, then supply will exceed demand, and the excess has to go somewhere. Where are the inventories? This view ought to hold in reverse. If speculators artificially kept the price of oil too low early in 2007, then demand should have exceeded supply and inventories should have ...

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