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Janet Yellen on risks and prospects for the U.S. economy

James Hamilton (July 7th, 2008) Writes:
Source This morning we were pleased to welcome Janet Yellen, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, to our UCSD Economics Roundtable. She focused on three main challenges: the housing slump, financial market turmoil, and commodity prices, which she likened to the three witches from Macbeth. Her complete speech is available from the FRB SFO Here are some excerpts. Janet Yellen (photo courtesy of FRB SFO). yellen.jpg Housing. Unfortunately, it appears to me that there are at least three reasons for thinking that housing prices have further to fall. First, the ratio of house prices to rents-- a kind of price-dividend ratio for housing-- still remains quite high by historical standards.... Second, inventories of unsold homes remain at elevated levels.... Third, the futures market for house prices predicts further declines in a number of metropolitan areas this year.... Financial markets. ...

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