Baltimore-(TFN):Time to panic? If you are part of the Obama administration the answer is yes. If you are an American investor, hold off on the freaking out for at least another month or so.

With the nation’s unemployment rate officially in double-digit territory and the under-employed rate ready to the 20% mark, the politicians that promised bliss in the days ahead are eating their words today.

And that means Wall Street is eating its recent gains.

For nearly a month, the Dow has hovered around the 10,000 mark. After hundreds of billions of dollars were withdrawn earlier this year, it was relatively easy to put that money back to work and send the equities market higher.

But now that the economic data is showing facts of slower-than-expected expansion rather than “ideas” of growth, investors are forced to explain their logic. The Dow doesn’t want to budge from 10k.

So far, I’ve heard very

What’s the best way to get through a debt crisis? Straight through was our advice last week. For at least a thousand years, the business cycle went round and round without help from central bankers or economists. It is only since these geniuses have been on the case that really serious problems have arisen. The Panic of 1920 – in which the US government did nothing but cut taxes and spending – was quickly forgotten. The Panic of 1929, on the other hand, was followed by massive rigging and jiving by the authorities. It took 20 years and a world war to overcome; today it is still remembered today as the Great Depression.

Martin Wolf, speaking, gravely, for the world’s intelligentsia in The Financial Times last week, proclaimed that: “the only thing worse than rescuing the system would have been not rescuing it.” But he is wrong; of all the many

Gold gained yet another powerful ally yesterday — hedge fund icon Paul Tudor Jones. The man who famously called Black Monday in 1987 and the Nikkei crash a few years later now thinks “gold appears to be cheap.” In a note to his investors, Tudor said, “I have never been a gold bug. It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place. And now is that time… gold’s value should increase as its scarcity relative to printed currencies increases.”

So gold is now publicly loved by armchair investors, famous hedge fund managers and central banks… even as we write, Erin Burnett is “squawking” about it on CNBC. Are your contrarian senses tingling yet?

“So many hedge fund managers and pundits are singing the same tune: long gold and short U.S. Treasuries,” our friend Dan Denning wrote in today’s Daily

Baltimore (TFN): The Fed is meeting today. And I ask who cares? At this point, Bernanke and his troupe of politicians masquerading as economists are in so far over their heads, no matter what they do or say, you can bet the move is designed to protect their butts, not yours.

With the global economy taking off without us and foreign interest rates already on the rise, the Fed is desperate to look bullish while acting bearish.

Anybody that has ever tried to prove the existence of Santa Clause or the Tooth Fairy to a six year old knows what Bernanke is trying to do. At this point, he’ll do anything to change the subject and focus the attention on something else.

With all of this talk about an increasingly deadly carry trade bubble, it is beyond obvious that American interest rates need to rise. If it doesn’t happen, soon enough all

Baltimore (TFN): Today’s the day. If you have ever hunted for undersea gold, you likely know Mel Fisher’s famous mantra. The great shipwreck hunter used the line thousands of times before it became the undeniable truth on the day he uncovered the “Atocha mother lode.”

While today’s record-breaking surge in gold prices is not likely to create $450 million in newfound wealth for any singular investor, it is the day gold bugs have been waiting for.

Thanks to surprising news that India’s central bank shelled out some $6.7 billion to get its hands on 200 metric tons worth of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) gold stash, the bullion market is on fire today.

Why is this good news?

Several reasons. First, since India’s name is on the receipt, China will have to wait in line to get its gold from the IMF. It’s either that or tread ever so

Baltimore (TFN): Believe it or not, I used to be a fishing guide. And a darn good one, too. It feels like a past life these days, but some of the memories of my summers spent in Alaska’s pristine wilderness come streaking back to me at the oddest of times.

Like today, for instance.

Everywhere I look, there is evidence that the American economy is in shambles. As investors, the cards are certainly stacked against us. At this point it even looks like the system may be rigged.

But we all know there is always a way out.

As a guide, there was a handful of times when I was positive the outcome would be grossly negative. Like the time a freak storm and its 70-mph winds decided to turn my boat into a submarine.

Or the time I sat in the back of 1958 deHavilland Beaver clinging to an outboard motor as the

Baltimore (TFN): Welcome to Notes version 2.0. As Will moves on to his next successful endeavor at the family office, I could not be more pleased and nervous to be at the helm. After all, he set the bar high.

What a time to be part of such a popular, well-regarded newsletter. From what I’ve heard and read, Notes subscribers are some of the most-informed, thought-provoking readers anywhere. I sincerely look forward to opening a dialogue with all of you.

As you know, there has never been a more pivotal time in this country’s financial future than right now.

The dollar is weak.

The word “jobs” has become an atrocious four-letter symbol for economic despair.

The government owns Detroit, Wall Street and is desperately trying to get its hands on healthcare.

And, worst of all, China could eat our economy for breakfast.

Indeed, there will be no shortage of topics

Let’s take a quick look at what’s happening in Brazil, over and above the 2016 Olympics being awarded to Rio de Janeiro.

“I don’t know if I will live to see it,” said Brazil’s president Luiz (Lula) da Silva a couple weeks ago. “But Brazil has to transform itself into a big power in the 21st century. We have everything to make it happen. We are not talking about a little country here.”

No, indeed. Brazil is not “a little country” anymore. Any prudent investor has to consider how to hitch a ride on the Brazil growth story. Brazil is transforming into one of the world’s great powers in this century. It’s important to follow the news from Brazil. At the same time, you have to know where to look, and how to read between the lines.

By official count — what the Brazilian government will confirm — the rocks of Brazil hold

Two distinct groups of investors have emerged since the U.S. stock market rally began in early March. Initially overly cautious and smug in their desire to protect themselves, the first group of investors were convinced the rally was going to sputter and stall. It hasn’t, and 57% later these investors now believe they’re getting left behind, so they’re piling into the key indices in effort to make up lost ground.

The second group consists of investors who believe they can outsmart the market. They’ve stayed on the sidelines, planning to buy in and make their fortunes when the markets break down a second time. But they may never get their chance.

Both strategies are flawed. And both ignore the single strategy that investors need to employ to profit in the later stages of a recovery rally.

The first group of investors – the indexers – have a unique problem. Broad-based investments such as

With the unemployment rate soaring alongside the U.S. budget deficit, the Obama Administration and congressional Democrats are struggling to solve the nation’s problems before next year’s midterm election.

But they may be struggling in vain.

Since 1945, the party that has controlled the White House has lost an average of 16 House seats in the president’s first midterm election, according to the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan publication in Washington. However, losses for the Democrats could be far steeper next year if they fail to put unemployed Americans back to work.

Then-U.S. President Bill Clinton and the Democrats lost 52 House seats in 1994.

“Unemployment is the leading economic indicator when it comes to politics,” Democratic pollster Peter Hart told The Wall Street Journal. “Anytime unemployment hits double digits, it’s hard to see the party in control having a good election year.”

Right now, polls are showing that the majority of Americans list