Chicago, IL – November 20, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Aetna Inc. (AET), UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH), WellPoint Inc. (WLP), Assurant Inc. (AIZ) and Cigna Corp. (CI).

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Here are highlights from Thursday’s Analyst Blog:

Aetna Axes Jobs

In a bid to become more efficient, the health insurer Aetna Inc. (AET) announced on Wednesday its intention to shed a total of 1,250 jobs or about 3.5% of its total workforce by the first quarter of 2010. Management intends to do so in two phases, by slashing 625 jobs now and the remaining early next year.

The company expects to record after-tax restructuring charges of $40 million in fourth quarter 2009. Last December, the company cut 1,000 jobs, which was 3% of its total workforce. The company plans to slash majority of the jobs at its headquarters in Connecticut.

Aetna with a total head count of 35,500 is eliminating jobs to cope with the difficult economic environment and potential impact that the health care reform might cast on its health insurance business. Elimination of excess workforce will help streamline the business by optimizing staffing level, thereby maintaining efficiency.

During the third quarter of 2009, Aetna earned $326.2 million, or 73 cents per share. That represents an increase from $277.3 million, or 58 cents per share, in the same quarter last year. Membership has slumped throughout the health insurance sector as employers have cut jobs, reducing the number of people covered by employer-sponsored plans.

Aetna rivals UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) and WellPoint Inc. (WLP) both recently saw enrollment declines in the third quarter. Last week, Assurant Health, a division of Assurant Inc. (AIZ) announced that it has slashed 94 jobs. Earlier during the year, peers Cigna Corp. (CI) cut 1,100 jobs and Wellpoint Inc. eliminated nearly 1,500 jobs.

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This subsidiary of United Technologies Corp. (UTX) will close down its Cheshire, Connecticut, plant by early 2011. From the second quarter of 2010, it will begin shifting some operations from the East Hartford facility to Columbus, Georgia, Singapore and Japan. Pratt & Whitney, which is suffering due to sagging demand from airlines, employs 35,000 workers worldwide, with 11,000 in Connecticut.

The company rejected an offer that the Machinists union valued at more than $80 million in wage and other concessions and a state plan proposing $100 million in economic assistance over five years. Pratt & Whitney has vastly scaled back operations in the state since the 1960s, when more than 20,000 workers were employed.

Pratt & Whitney is a world leader in the design, manufacture and service of aircraft engines, industrial gas turbines and space propulsion systems. The company’s 38,577 employees support more than 9,000 customers in 180 countries around the world. It builds engines for front line fighters, like the F-15 Eagle, F-16 Fighting Falcon, F-22 Raptor and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, as well as the C-17 Globemaster III military transport.

United Technologies provides high technology products and services to the building systems and aerospace industries worldwide. Its Otis, Carrier and UTC Fire & Security (collectively referred to as the commercial businesses) serve customers in the commercial and residential property industries worldwide. Carrier also serves commercial, industrial, transport refrigeration and food service equipment customers.

Pratt & Whitney, Hamilton Sundstrand and Sikorsky (together called the aerospace businesses) primarily serve commercial and government customers in both the original equipment and aftermarket parts and services markets of the aerospace industry; Hamilton Sundstrand and Pratt & Whitney also serve customers in certain industrial markets. Its major rivals include General Electric Co. (GE) and Boeing Co. (BA).

We currently have a Neutral recommendation on UTX.

StrionAir has been the provider of Carrier's residential Infinity Air Purifier since 2006, and has also developed, marketed and sold over 6,000 commercial systems. StrionAir is headquartered in Louisville, Colorado and was founded in 1997.

This acquisition will enable Carrier to incorporate Infinity Air Purifier into its products as well as provide an opportunity for accelerated product development for both residential and commercial applications.

Carrier has consistently been the leader in developing energy-efficient, environmentally sound solutions in home and building comfort and indoor air quality. Carrier, headquartered in Farmington, Connecticut, is the world's largest provider of heating, air-conditioning and refrigeration solutions, with operations in more than 170 countries.

United Technologies was incorporated in Delaware in 1934. It provides high technology products and services to the building systems and aerospace industries worldwide. Operating units include businesses with operations throughout the world. Otis, Carrier and UTC Fire & Security – collectively referred to as the commercial businesses – serve customers in the commercial and residential property industries worldwide. Carrier also serves commercial, industrial, transport refrigeration and food service equipment customers. Its major competitors include Boeing Co. (BA) and General Electric Co. (GE).

We currently have a Neutral recommendation on United Technologies.

Discovery's main payload is the Leonardo Multi-Purpose Logistics Module, which is carrying extra supplies and equipment to help establish a six-astronaut crew capacity on the space station. The payload includes science and storage racks, a treadmill and a crew quarter.

Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne Inc., a part of Pratt & Whitney, is a preferred provider of high-value propulsion, power, energy and innovative system solutions used in a wide variety of government and commercial applications, including the main engines for space shuttles, Atlas and Delta launch vehicles, missile defense systems and advanced hypersonic engines.

Pratt & Whitney is a world leader in the design, manufacture and service of aircraft engines, space propulsion systems and industrial gas turbines. United Technologies, based in Hartford, Connecticut, is a diversified company providing high technology products and services to the global aerospace and commercial building industries. Its major competitors include General Electric Co. (GE) and Boeing Co. (BA). We currently have a Neutral recommendation on the stock.

The company stated that it now expects earnings for the fiscal year ending Jan 2010 between $1.40 and $1.60 per share, compared to the prior outlook of $1.75 to $1.85.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate is at $1.72 per share, which has moved down by 4 cents over the past month.

Meanwhile, the company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of 22 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 35.3%.

Sales grew marginally by 0.8% to $220.2 million, while same-store sales declined 5.2%.

CONN, a Zacks #5 Rank ("Strong Sell") stock, is trading on heavier-than-usual volume of approximately 407,000, compared to the average daily volume of about 116,000.

We maintain a Neutral recommendation on the shares of Wells Fargo.

STATES WITH PROJECTED FY2010 BUDGET GAPS
State	FY2010 pre-budget	FY2010 mid-year gap	FY2010 Total	FY2010 Total % of Budget
Alabama	$1.2 billion	0	$1.2 billion	16.70%
Alaska	$1.3 billion	0	$1.3 billion	30.00%
Arizona	$4.0 billion	0	$4.0 billion	41.10%
Arkansas	$146 million	0	$146 million	3.20%
California*	$34.2 billion	$19.5 billion	$53.7 billion	58.20%
Colorado	$1.0 billion	$384 million	$1.4 billion	18.60%
Connecticut	$4.1 billion	0	$4.1 billion	23.20%
Delaware	$557 million	0	$557 million	17.60%
District of Columbia	$650 million	$150 million	$800 million	12.70%
Florida	$5.9 billion	0	$5.9 billion	22.80%
Georgia	$3.1 billion	$750 million	$3.9 billion	22.30%
Hawaii	$682 million	$297 million	$978 million	19.10%
Idaho	$411 million	0	$411 million	16.40%
Illinois	$9.2 billion	0	$9.2 billion	33.00%
Indiana	$1.1 billion	0	$1.1 billion	7.50%
Iowa	$779 million	0	$779 million	13.20%
Kansas	$1.4 billion	Yes, DK size	$1.4 billion	22.60%
Kentucky	0	$1.1 billion	$1.1 billion	11.30%
Louisiana	$1.8 billion	0	$1.8 billion	21.60%
Maine	$640 million	0	$640 million	21.40%
Maryland	$1.9 billion	Yes, DK size	$1.9 billion	13.60%
Massachusetts	$5.0 billion	0	$5.0 billion	17.90%
Michigan	$2.4 billion	0	$2.4 billion	12.00%
Minnesota	$3.2 billion	0	$3.2 billion	21.00%
Mississippi	$480 million	0	$480 million	9.60%
Missouri	$923 million	0	$923 million	10.30%
Nebraska	$150 million	0	$150 million	4.30%
Nevada	$1.2 billion	0	$1.2 billion	37.80%
New Hampshire	$250 million	0	$250 million	16.20%
New Jersey	$8.8 billion	0	$8.8 billion	29.90%
New Mexico	$345 million	0	$345 million	6.30%
New York	$17.9 billion	0	$17.9 billion	32.30%
North Carolina	$4.6 billion	0	$4.6 billion	21.90%
Ohio	$3.3 billion	0	$3.3 billion	12.30%
Oklahoma	$600 million	0	$600 million	10.50%
Oregon*	0	0	0	0.00%
Pennsylvania	$4.8 billion	0	$4.8 billion	18.00%
Rhode Island	$590 million	0	$590 million	19.20%
South Carolina	$725 million	0	$725 million	12.50%
South Dakota	$32 million	0	$32 million	2.90%
Tennessee	$1.0 billion	0	$1.0 billion	9.70%
Texas	$3.5 billion	0	$3.5 billion	9.50%
Utah	$721 million	$279 million	$1.0 billion	19.80%
Vermont	$278 million	0	$278 million	24.80%
Virginia	$1.8 billion	Yes, DK size	$1.8 billion	10.90%
Washington	$3.4 billion	$195 million	$3.6 billion	23.30%
West Virginia	$200 million	0	$200 million	5.30%
Wisconsin	$3.2 billion	0	$3.2 billion	23.20%
Wyoming	0	$32 million	$32 million	1.70%
Total	$143.2 billion	$22.7 billion	$165.9 billion	24.40%

This will lead to very drastic cuts in state budgets. Access to medical care by the poor will likely be one of the first things to be cut.

Education budgets will also probably be pared. This could be decreased spending on new textbooks, which would not be good news for publishers like McGraw-Hill (MHP) and Scholastic (SCHL).

Another area that is likely to be hit is new equipment at the municipal level. For example, I would not expect Oshkosh (OSK) to have a very good year selling new fire engines and snow removal equipment to municipalities.

Layoffs of state and municipal workers will simply add to the already high and rising unemployment rate. In short, a big part of the federal stimulus spending is being offset by (legally mandated) anti-stimulus actions at the state level.

As the graph shows, state fiscal problems tend to persist well after the recession is officially over. Indeed the problem is usually worse in the second or third year since by then the "rainy day funds" have already been used up.

Following the last recession, states collectively had their worst year in 2004 with a shortfall of $80 billion (or less than half what they face for fiscal 2010), which was well after the recession officially ended. Thus 2011, and possibly even 2012, will be a very lean year at the state level as well.

The maker of security and health imaging systems posted 21 cents per share, missing the consensus estimate by 15 cents, or nearly 42%. In the year-ago quarter, earnings reached 54 cents.

Sales dipped 9% to $93.6 million, as the ongoing economic downturn affected the demand for CT, MR, and motion control related systems.

Sales for medical imaging, the company's flagship segment, declined $8.5 million to $50 million, neutralizing modest improvements in the digital radiography and security technology segments.

The full-year average forecast has moved down 3 cents over the past 2 months to 90 cents per share.

ALOG, a Zacks #3 Rank ("Hold") stock, is trading on volume of approximately 156,000, compared to the average daily volume of about 80,000.

As the credit crisis intensified through a tumultuous year, Hartford lost $2.7 billion for writing down the value of mortgage-related assets and corporate debt in 2008.

In October, faced with concerns over the company's capital levels, Ayer accepted a $2.5 billion cash investment from German peer Allianz SE (AZ).

Even then, the downward trend in equity markets continued to drag the Connecticut-based firm along with it. All three key credit ratings agencies downgraded Hartford. To meet rising challenges, Ayer cut jobs, slashed the company's dividend by 84% and appealed for funds under the US Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

Last month, Hartford won preliminary approval for $3.4 billion in government bailout along with six other insurers. However, even though most insurers rejected the proposal for federal support to sustain themselves, Hartford and Lincoln National Corp. (LNC) are likely to accept those funds. Ayer said last week that he was "finalizing details" with the government regarding TARP money.

Even though Ayer has defended the measures he undertook to handle the crisis, investors believe he could have done better. The Hartford board will now begin the search for an immediate and external successor.

Shares of Hartford (HIG), a Zacks #4 Rank ("Hold") company, are up nearly 2%.

Along with this much anticipated move, which is a natural corollary of the beleaguered firm's entry into bankruptcy court, the benchmark stock index also removed Citigroup Inc. (C) from its lineup to make way for the second-largest U.S. commercial insurer Travelers Co. (TRV). Both GM and Citigroup will be formally taken out from the average at the opening of trade on Jun 8.

While swapping companies on the index usually takes years, the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression has claimed many of its components as victims. The last change came when Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) replaced the ailing American International Group Inc. (AIG) in September.

Dow Jones Editor in Chief Robert Thomson, who plays a key role in deciding the composition of the index, said, "We were reluctant to remove Citigroup at the height of the financial frenzy, but it is clear that the bank is in the midst of a substantial restructuring which will see the government with a large and ongoing stake."

Citi was added to the index in March 1997 as Travelers Group Inc. The country's biggest financial firm by assets was formed by a merger of Travelers and Citicorp. In 2002, it spun off the Hartford, Connecticut-based Travelers Property Casualty Corp. through an initial public offering. The irony is that the same firm is now replacing Citigroup on the DJIA.

With the addition of Cisco to the index, the technology weighting of the DJIA now goes up to about 17%. Shares of Cisco rose 6% to $19.61 at noon on the NASDAQ, while Travelers gained nearly 4% to $42.20 on the New York Stock Exchange at about the same time. Responding to upbeat economic reports, the DJIA is currently up 2.67% or 227.24 points.

Tim Courtney admits that financial markets do tend to break down from time to time.

A prime example, says the Oklahoma City, Okla.-based portfolio manager, is what's going on today in markets across the globe.

"But markets have proven to be efficient enough over the longer-term to dissuade us from trying to time a recovery or squeeze any possible excess losses by using individual stocks," said the chief investment officer for Burns Advisory Group, which is headquartered in Oklahoma but has offices in California and Connecticut as well.

Courtney used to work with large institutional investors at Fidelity Investments on developing retirement plans and asset allocation requirements. He joined John Burns, who started the business and serves as its chief executive, in 1997.

These days, Courtney is a dedicate portfolio developer for the company's advisors across the country. He doesn't engage in individual stock analysts, but instead relies on the techniques and strategies of managers at Dimensional Fund Advisors. He also likes to sprinkle Vanguard Group index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds into allocations for high net worth and institutional client portfolios.

Preserving Capital Is Key

As the year comes to an end, he's making sure money set aside in more conservative investments remain fully funded according to long-term allocation requirements.

"A lot of people are really focused on yields so they've got enough interest to live on," said Courtney. "But we don't really look at just interest and yields. We're more focused on total returns and overall growth in a portfolio."

Rather than rebalancing back to a static stock-to-bond allocation, he prefers to take profits from stock positions when markets are doing well and use those proceeds to shore-up bond positions. "We don't rebalance back to static allocations. Our ultimate concern is that we don't have to sell stocks when they're way down, like what we're going through now," said Courtney.

Investors who came to the firm a year ago and set up portfolios primarily leaning towards stocks would've seen their fixed-income positions being sold in 2008. "We didn't sell any stock positions this year," said Courtney. "And the reason we didn't is because we set aside enough in our clients' income reserves (through bonds) so we would not need to sell stocks at the wrong time."

He doesn't believe in rebalancing by calendar dates. "We prefer to rebalance based on asset cycles," said Courtney. "We want to make sure that there's enough set aside in a client's income reserves to meet their needs. The fastest way to deplete those reserves over time is by selling stocks at the wrong time."

As a result, portfolio weightings between stocks and bonds can be dynamic. "We don't really see huge swings from year-to-year," said Courtney. "And in most years, we don't even come close to using up someone's income reserves."

During the bear market of 2000-2002, he didn't sell stocks. "We lived off the income of bonds. And if that wasn't enough, we sold shares of the bond funds as a last resort," said Courtney. "There were areas of the market that were doing well, such as real estate, where we were also able to take profits to live on."

The same situation has taken place this year. Courtney has been selling shares of the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBMFX), the DFA Five-Year Government Fund (DFFGX) and the DFA Five-Year Global Fixed-Income Fund (DFGBX). "We've basically been selling anything with a lot of exposure to Treasuries, since those have been doing well this year," said Courtney. "But we're not dumping them wholesale. We're selling pieces of those positions to preserve income for our clients."

The proceeds gained from trimming those bond positions are going into the DFA Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (DIPSX). "With nominal Treasuries offering roughly 0% Interest, we feel like TIPS offer a better investment opportunity going forward. And with the amount of money being created right now to deal with the economic problems we're going through, once the economic cycle rebounds, we'd rather hold TIPS than nominal Treasuries," said Courtney.

Positioning For A Stock Market Recovery

He's also putting some money into the Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Fund (VFSTX). "It has government and corporate bonds," said Courtney. "At some point, when the market begins to recover, people are going to start coming out of Treasury bonds. We like this fund as a means to keep our government bond positions as short-term as possible to negate the impact of any eventual reversal in cycles."

And corporate bonds in a short-term fixed-income portfolio helps to boost overall yields for a portfolio, he added.

With stocks, typically smaller companies and stocks oriented more towards value segments of the market lead the way, notes Courtney. "All stocks look pretty cheap right now," he said. "But since we're positioning our portfolios for a time when market cycles change and stocks rebound, our portfolios are sticking with funds investing in traditional value companies which are more economically sensitive."

He likes right now the DFA U.S. Small Cap Value Fund (DFSVX). It had lost more than 40% so far this year entering Tuesday. "It has taken a bigger hit this year than a lot of small-cap value funds. But that's one of the reasons why we like it," said Courtney.

Over longer periods of time, it has outperformed. "And it has done that by really targeting the smallest and most value-oriented companies in the market - even more so than a fund tracking the Russell 2000 Value Index," said Courtney. "We saw the same thing in 2000-2002. DFSVX fell more during that recession, but it outperformed by nearly 50% once the market cycle reversed and stocks rebounded."

Smaller companies have more difficulties raising money these days as the global credit crunch continues, he says. "When you start to see borrowing costs go down, which is starting to happen right now, these smaller companies will start to benefit," said Courtney. "Those smaller companies are on the front lines of any recovery that's bound to take place."

He also believes international markets will show the same patterns at some point. As such, Burns Advisory Group's client portfolios are investing in the DFA International Vector Equity Fund (DFVQX).

"We're keeping a neutral weighting in large companies, simply because we want to be ready for a recovery and position our portfolios to be slightly overweight in small-cap stocks," said Courtney.

For large-caps, he's using DFA U.S. Large Cap Value Fund (DFLVX) and the DFA U.S. Large Company Fund (DFLCX). Courtney also likes to keep some exposure to mid-caps through the Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF (NYSE: VOE).

As further diversification tools, he also maintains positions in the DFA Global Real Estate Securities Fund (DFGEX). "It has roughly half of its securities in the U.S. and the other half invested in international markets," said Courtney. "We feel that overseas REITs is a burgeoning new market. More companies are starting to accept the REIT structure as we've seen in the U.S. for years."

The company still projects 2009 earnings growth between 3% and 5%.

Analysts expect the company to earn a profit of $3.94 in the current year. For next year, analysts forecast earnings of $4.10.

The Hartford, Conn. insurer said that it will release further information regarding its balance sheet and capital position on Tuesday.

Aetna is a Zacks #4 Rank ("Sell") company.

Earlier, the insurer had slashed its forecast for this year at least twice. Hartford said that its operating businesses are performing well despite a gloomy economic environment.

The Connecticut-based company now expects earnings between $4.70 and $4.90 a share, excluding a few investment results. In October, the company was looking for a profit in the range of $4.30 to $4.50.

Hartford's new earnings outlook for 2008 is nearly half of what it had estimated in December of the previous year. Analysts expect the company to earn $4.46 a share.

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Priceline – the online airfare and hotel-booking firm known for its kitschy TV ad campaign that stars “Star Trek” star William Shatner as “The Negotiator” – is an interesting possible profit play, thanks to its strong balance sheet and market muscle in the bargain-hunting end of the travel-services sector, the financial weekly Barron’s says.

The stock market has already factored in the challenges facing the travel and retail sectors into Priceline’s stock price, Reuters and Barron’s both reported.

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