The inflation/deflation debate is hot… It crackles and pops like a pine fire. But it gives off little helpful light. Abe Lincoln may have read by the light of an open fire. But when we tried it, we singed our eyebrows. It made us suspicious of Old Abe; maybe he wasn’t quite as truthful as he pretended to be. Later, we realized he was a mountebank. But that’s another story…

Today, we light a candle and try to interpret the shadows on the wall…

Yesterday, the Dow fell 81 points. Gold dropped $5 to $1009.

Will the feds succeed in causing inflation? Or will they fail? Will the dollar continue to go down? Or will it prove to be a safe haven currency in a time of deflationary trouble?

According to the papers, the feds have already done it. “Fed says recovery underway,” says a headline from yesterday’s press.

Another headline tells us that

...

Profit From the “New Decoupling”

Tony Daltorio, The Investment U Research Team

Emerging markets first hit investors’ radar screen about 20 or so years ago. There was a lot of skepticism and a lack of understanding about emerging markets, which was understandable because there were few emerging markets open enough (or large enough) to invest in with a degree of safety.

That has all changed in the past two decades as most emerging markets are open to foreign investments and have a high degree of liquidity. The number of so-called emerging markets has also grown from a mere handful to over 60.

Yet Wall Street seems to have missed these changes – there is still a lot of skepticism on Wall Street when it comes to investing in emerging markets. That is where the opportunity for investors lies.

Famed investor

...

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has reached an agreement with the Bank of East Asia on an equity transaction, in which ICBC will acquire a 70% stake in the Canadian subsidiary of BEA for CAD80.25 million. Under the agreement, ICBC will pay CAD80.25 million, to acquire the 70% stake while BEA will hold the [...]

The markets were able to hold onto gains during a turbulent day, as the Dow closed at 8740.87. The NASDAQ was up 0.44% closing at 1836.80, with the S&P 500 up 0.20% closing at 944.74. The 10-year saw prices fall once again, closing with a yield of 3.609%. Crude was down settling at $68.55, while August gold headed in the opposite direction settling at $984.40 as the dollar continues to fall.

Ford [F: 6.41, +0.28 (+4.57%)] reported that sales fell 24% during May while GM [GM: 0.00, 0.00 (0.00%)], Toyota [TM: 80.99, -0.73 (-0.89%)], and Chrysler reported that sales fell 29%, 41%, and 47% decline respectively. Ford, which is the only major US car company not in bankruptcy, reported that it’s Ford, Lincoln, and Mercury brands captured the most market share since 2006. Ford has been able

...

American Express Co. (AXP) may sell its stake in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) in an effort to raise cash and bolster its balance sheet.

The stock has declined over 2% with volumes at less-than-half normal levels.

AXP is expected to generate more than $600 million from a stake sale. The credit-card issuer can divest the stake after the lock-up period expires in two equal installments on Apr 28 and Oct 20 this year.

AXP said in a release that it "will explore all potential methods of sale that would maximize value and minimize market impact, with a preference for a private sale to investors."

Analysts have cut estimates for this year by 7 cents over the past week and by 24 cents over the past month as the card issuer struggles with huge credit losses.

AXP is currently a Zacks #4 Rank ("Sell") stock.

...

GS (SELL $80) NEW PRICE TARGET $80,, WAS $140..The problem in the short run is valuation. The company has as a policy the purchase of distressed assets. In the past this has proven to be a very successful strategy generating an estimated $10 billion in revenues. Today this strategy is falling under the new mark to market accounting rules. These rules are forcing write downs of the acquired assets and this may harm earnings.Additionally, the value of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China holding may have been lowered by as much as 30%.Notablecalls: Ladenburg's Dick Bove is among the Axes. Looks like GS is headed lower.

HSBC Overtakes ICBC as World's Biggest Bank It was December 2006, when Chinese state media announced that the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has left UK's HSBC behind in terms of market capitalisation with a value of USD214.2 bn. Following the continuous meltdown of the Shanghai Composite Index, ICBC's...

With events changing daily ... with the government takeover of Fannie and Freddie ... with important news coming out almost hourly — I'm sure you're often wondering: "What does Larry think here? How do I make money in these crazy markets and economic environment?" Indeed, I'm receiving more questions about the markets ... more doubts about the commodities bull market ... more inquiries about inflation versus deflation, than I have in years. That's not surprising, considering the extreme, wild swings in the markets. Emotions are running deep. Confusion is everywhere. Even the most experienced investors and traders are having quite a spell with the current economic and market environment. So I'm going to convey as many of my views as possible in this report ... and the reasons behind them. That way ...

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, continues to drill away and is now about halfway through its offshore Carioca deposit according to Mines and Energy Minister Edison Lobao said. Carioca forms part of Brazil's new pre-salt region, which lies beneath 2,000 meters of water and as much as 4,000 meters of seabed. The pre-salt region is also home to the Tupi field, which holds an estimated 8 billion barrels of oil and is the largest Western Hemisphere oil discovery in three decades. Lobao is also quoted as saying that Betrobras will need more time to determine the size of the Carioca field, so I suppose for the time being it's just a question of "on we go with the drilling".Following up on my post about oil rigs earlier in the week, Petrobras have also announced plans to lease 146 ...