This post is a guest contribution by Romeo Dator, co-manager of the China Region Fund (USCOX) of US Global Investors.

A year ago, nobody thought China could manage 8 percent GDP growth in 2009. With year-to-date growth coming in at 7.7 percent through the first three quarters and getting stronger, China is poised to break that 8 percent mark rather easily.

The success of the stimulus and the lofty economic numbers China has managed to produce amidst a global crisis has led many to claim China is the next great bubble.

We see five reasons China is not a bubble and believe that its prospects remain strong for at least the next 20 years.

1) Consumption continues to be strong China is transitioning to a consumption-based workforce. Retail sales rose 16.2 percent in nominal terms during October and have been accelerating. The retail sales figure isn’t a perfect proxy,

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This analysis is from Romeo Dator, co-manager of the China Region Fund (USCOX). A year ago, nobody thought China could manage 8 percent GDP growth in 2009. With year-to-date growth coming in at 7.7 percent through the first three quarters and getting stronger, China is poised to break that 8 percent mark rather easily. The success of the stimulus and the lofty economic numbers China has managed to produce amidst a global crisis has led many to claim China is the next great bubble. We see five reasons China is not a bubble and believe that its prospects remain strong for at least the next 20 years. 1) Consumption Continues to be Strong China is transitioning to a consumption-based workforce. Retail sales rose 16.2 percent in nominal terms during October and have been accelerating. The retail sales figure isnrsquo;t a perfect proxy, but it is the best available indicator of overall consumption because it does ...

With President Obama scheduled to make his first presidential trip to Beijing this weekend, China Region Fund (USCOX) co-manager Romeo Dator appeared on CNBCrsquo;s ldquo;Power Lunchrdquo; today to discuss the U.S.-China relationship. The other guest in the segment was former U.S. Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez, who stressed that the U.S. relationship isnrsquo;t the only one thatrsquo;s important to China. [Obama] wonrsquo;t be able to give them a public lecture. Hersquo;s going to find a more assertive, a more confident China. The only thing playing in our favor this time is that the whole of Asia is up in arms about the dollar. Since the Chinese peg their currency to the dollar, itrsquo;s giving them a benefit versus the rest of Asia. The only real chance we have here is for Asia to convince China (to let the yuan appreciate). Romeo predicted that Asia on the whole will grow in importance for investors. I think ...

Brian Hicks, co-manager of our Global Resources Fund (PSPFX), is in London this week for the London Metal Exchangersquo;s 2009 Metals Seminar, which kicked off the annual LME Week gathering of leading commodities analysts from around the world. Here are Brianrsquo;s notes from the seminar: Danny Quah, professor at the London School of Economics, gave a compelling presentation that centered on China and the global recovery.nbsp; His main theme focused on the global economys shifting center of gravity, which has been steadily moving eastward to China over the past decade.nbsp;nbsp; He also mentioned that China isnt dependent upon U.S. consumption to create growth ndash; that notion is an old paradigm from the 1970s. Exports to the U.S. only make up approximately 15 percent of total exports, versus the 40 percent of total exports going to Southeast Asia.nbsp; Michael Jansen, director of commodities at JP Morgan, is one of a few who see ...

 

Investors are increasingly favoring bonds over stocks, according to a new article from Sam Mamudi in the Wall Street Journal. The old adage that long-term investors should pile into equities is fading from view.

In addition, Mamudi says, many investors now want to incorporate alternative assets such as commodities into their portfolios.

"The whole 60-40 idea is almost like Betamax videotapes; it's now passe," says Andrew Silverberg, co-manager of Alger Balanced Fund, in the article. "It gained popularity while we were still in a bull market ... [Asset allocation should be] more dynamic."

Read the full article here.

 

 

Evan Smith, co-manager of the Global Resources Fund (PSPFX), appeared on Bloomberg News today to discuss his outlook for natural gas with host Mark Crumpton. Evan explained what concerns are giving him pause. The commercial and industrial component of natural gas demand is still trending down roughly 12 percent year-on-year. Thatrsquo;s at a time when wersquo;ve had a pretty big response over the past year in reducing natural gas production. That being said wersquo;re 23 percent above where we were a year ago for storage levels. A lot of gas is in storage but wersquo;re coming up on the end of the storage season. I think very near term wersquo;re going to see some volatility, maybe lower gas prices but if you look past the next several weeks or maybe even month or so, Irsquo;m actually quite constructive on natural gas once we get beyond this weak period and things ...

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reported a lower-than-expected second-quarter loss on Wednesday, the first in what is projected to be a lackluster season for U.S. corporate earnings.

Alcoa reported a loss of $312 million, or 32 cents a share, well ahead of analysts’ estimates of a loss of 38 cents a share – but down from its year-ago profit of 66 cents per share. The giant aluminum producer is the first component of the bellwether Dow Jones Industrial Average to report its second-quarter performance, marking the beginning of the U.S. corporate earnings season.

Overall, earnings expectations are bleak. The companies that make up the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index are expected to post declining profits for the eighth consecutive quarter, a 36% decline, according toThompson Reuters.

Alcoa’s performance was a result of cost-cutting measures undertaken by the company.

“At first glance it looks constructive. They were able to

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