The Paradox of Thrift: How a Better Savings Rate is Fueling the Recession

by David Fessler, Advisory Panelist

We’ve all heard this from our parents: “Spend what’s left after saving, instead of saving what’s left after spending.”

Or perhaps this was drummed into your head: “Always save for a rainy day.”

The idea of saving didn’t just start with our parents’ generation, however. Ben Franklin was giving advice on saving way back in 1732 in Poor Richard’s Almanac: “If you would be wealthy, think of saving as well as getting. Creditors have better memories than debtors.”

As the recession of 2008 hit, Americans suddenly stopped spending, paid down their debts and started saving – some for the first time in their lives…

As a result, America’s savings rate – as a percent of disposable income – has leapt from a little over 1%

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Muscle Flex, Inc

(Public, OTC:MFLI)

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The first few days of the week have been characterized by a fresh wave of risk aversion as uncertainty over the global economic outlook took its toll on stock markets and investors favored safe-haven assets such as government bonds, the US dollar and Japanese yen. However, yesterday brought some relief for risky assets - now in corrective mode - and it remains to be seen whether the S&P 500 Index will close down for a fourth consecutive week as the US earnings season gets on the way.

The usual debate on the outlook for the economy and financial markets dominated the video channels over the past few days, but interesting snippets on the IMF’s improved forecast for the global economy, the viability of the Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP), the US dollar’s role as reserve currency, the prospects for the earnings-reporting season and President Obama’s visit to Russia were also

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This is a guest post by Barry Ritholtz, editor of The Big Picture Blog and author of the newly released book, Bailout Nation.

Over the past five years, I have appeared on various Financial TV shows over a 100 times. But I am also a huge consumer of financial news, in print, on the web, radio, and of course, TV. Being on both sides of the camera gives me a fairly good perspective on what does and doesn’t work on TV. I also have some strong ideas as to what is good and bad TV in terms of providing a social utility, being part of the democratic process, etc.

Indeed, this is a longstanding interest of mine. Over the weekend, I referenced the current Columbia Journalism Review (CJR) issue that focused on the role of the media in the credit crisis, stock market and economic

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Yen continues to kick!  Jim Rogers disses sterling…  China’s 4th QTR GDP…  Singapore announces stimulus… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

A nasty day in the currencies yesterday, except Japan of course. The Dow jumped 290 points yesterday, maybe an Obama bounce? You all know that I subscribe to an Obama bounce for stocks and the dollar in the first part of this year… But given what I know about, and what you now know about, after I drew it all out yesterday, the additions to the deficit that Obama will make, the focus on the fundamentals should return by late spring, early summer… That’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it!

Well… As I

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December 15, 2008 It shouldn’t surprise that scapegoats are being sought to blame for market declines. The latest attempt is to blame leveraged ETFs for problems that even include market manipulation. Crammer [no typo] has called ProShares products “evil” so I’m told. But let’s remember his famous admission from May 15, 2006, “I am not allowed to short stocks per my deal with CNBC.” So, there you have his conflict. Any inverse levered issues will incur his wrath since if shorting is off the table for him, it should be for you as well. Naturally, during his hedge fund days he had no troubles shorting stocks or indexes. It’s laughable. Then there is the assertion via a WSJ story this morning that levered ETFs are responsible for market manipulation citing end of day volatility. That’s interesting but let’s ...

Today continued a pattern that we have seen lately and that is mainly last hour insanity. We had a pretty dull day going but in the last hour the market completely puked it up and in the last few minutes another little nutty rally helped take the market off the lows. The good news about the selling was that it was on lower volume. The bad news about the selling is that it seemed to hit the few strong stocks that were out there. This could be bad news for a potential rally.

If leading stocks can not get anything going and keep it going it is going to be very hard for this market to hold up and produce the gains that so many are looking for. I think that so many think this market is oversold that we have to rally. I hate to tell some of these people

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If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.” Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months. But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right – and I have every reason to believe that he will – then investors will be presented with the greatest investment ...

[This is the eighth installment of an ongoing series in which Shah Gilani breaks down the credit crisis for readers.] In the mid-80s, I ran a private partnership – call it a hedge fund – from the floor of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Inc. (CBOE). I was an independent market maker, meaning I could walk into any trading pit on the floor and trade any options and any stocks. More often than not, one of my principal trading plans was to play the crowd. My approach was to walk into the pit and chat up the crowd. My intention was to gauge whether the other market makers and locals were net long (bullish) or net short (bearish). Most of the locals are independents and not extremely well capitalized. But I was. If I gauged the locals to be bullish, ...

The commercial paper market is the thoroughfare where Wall Street merges into Main Street. Corporations, finance companies and banks rely on Main Street investors for the cash they deposit into money-market funds and other short-term investment vehicles. Ultimately, that cash buys the commercial paper that’s issued to help fund everything from corporate payrolls to a manufacturing company’s production inventories. The deepening credit crisis – with its inevitable contagion spreading like a nuclear winter across the globe – is forcing the U.S. Federal Reserve and central banks worldwide to go to extraordinary measures in their attempts to thaw out the credit freeze and save banks. While the Fed’s rush to rescue the commercial paper market has been promoted by some as a Main Street rescue, make no mistake, the intensity of the U.S. central bank’s heat is directed toward frozen banks. The number ...