Fred Hiatt of the Washington Post has a new column which digs up a number of quotes from American officials over the years which illustrate how often they have been willing to assume a certain level of rational thinking going on inside the Kremlin with regard to Iran.  Just because it is technically in Russia's interests to not have Iran possessing nuclear weapons, doesn't mean that they will act on those interests.

It might be, for example, that Russia understands the value of keeping Iran nuclear-free, but values even more the fruits of its commercial and military trade with Iran.

It might be that Russia believes that the stalemate status quo is pretty close to ideal. Iran can be delayed in its progress toward nuclear status but also prevented from normalizing relations with the United States and the West. And as long as those relations are

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With the release of the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) numbers this morning and the BLS jobs report due out on Friday (and initial claims tomorrow), jobs -- or the lack of them -- is clearly front and center. Normally when people talk about job losses or gains, they are talking about net job creation. After all, even in the biggest booms, there are still some people who are losing their jobs, and even in the deepest darkest recessions, there are some folks who find new jobs. There is an interesting article today by Andy Harless of Atlantic Asset Management posted on Economist View that disaggregates it into the rate of job destruction and the rate of job creation. It is a long and interesting article and is worth reading. The key trends are shown in the graph below. If the blue line is above ...

With the global economy on the mend, could gold be gearing up for another record-setting run? It sure looks that way. 

After peaking north of the $1,000 per ounce price level last year, gold hit a stumbling block when deflationary fears in the world’s largest economy sucked the air out of commodities prices and sent hoards of investors stampeding into the safe-haven of U.S. Treasuries, and helped spawn a rebound in the U.S. dollar.

Since that time, the global economic outlook - especially beyond U.S. borders - has improved, and gold prices have stabilized.

The next step - many gold bulls say - is for the yellow metal to make a run for new highs.

Whipsaw Trading Patterns

Gold started 2009 at about $870 an ounce - down substantially from early 2008 when prices hit a record-high $1033.90, but significantly higher than the $712.30 an ounce it was trading at in mid-November.

Then, when talk of inflation

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[Editor's Note: If you're new to the commodities-investing arena, and are uncertain about the landscape - or even if you're an "old hand" at natural-resource stocks, but want some insights into the new profit plays and new players - consider hiring a guide: Money Morning Contributing Editor Peter Krauth, a recognized expert in metals, mining and energy stocks, is also the editor of the Global Resource Alert trading service, which ferrets out companies poised to profit from the so-called “Secular Bull Market” in commodities. A former portfolio advisor, Krauth continues to work out of resource-rich Canada, which keeps him close to most of the companies he researches. Against the growing global financial malaise, Krauth says that commodities are among the most-profitable and least-risky investments available, and notes that this may well be the most powerful bull market for commodities we’ll see in our lifetimes. He …

Unemployment Numbers – Fake, or Really, Really Fake?

Ryan Cole, The Investment U Research Team

The latest unemployment numbers just came out, and they weren’t too good. Job losses, which had been slowing down for over a month, increased in speed again. The official unemployment rate, standing at 9.4%, looks set to increase when next released in early July.

But 9.4%, while bad, isn’t that bad, right?

After all, the Great Depression famously saw 25% unemployment at its height in 1932 and 1933. So this recession is bad, but nowhere near a depression… correct?

Sadly no.

You see, during the early years of the Clinton Administration, the way we measure unemployment changed. Discouraged workers – those waiting out the bad times – and the chronically unemployed – those who haven’t held a job in the past year – were

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We live in a global economy. And, unless we destroy the global economy that now exists the way the world destroyed the first global economy starting with the 1914 conflict and proceeding through the next fifty-five years or so, we will continue to face the duties and responsibilities of operating within a world economy. And, those duties and responsibilities begin with the currency of the country.

It is hard to have confidence that the United States accepts this fact.

I know that we are in a recession (depression?). I know that the immediate pressure on the Obama Administration is to “get the economy going again.” I know that the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, both dependent partners in the effort to get the financial system functioning, must provide whatever means it takes to avoid further deterioration of financial markets.

Still, there is a need to listen

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If inflation doesn’t get us, incompetent government action will. This is the view of one of our favourite common sense Economist, Willem Buiter, professor of European Political Economy at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Buiter warns that the “the next big crisis … will be a crisis of state ‘overreach’ and of government failure” and that “stultifying state capitalism, initiative-numbing over-regulation and overambitious social engineering may well be the defining features of the next socio-economic system to fail.” We’ll drink to that.

What follows is the conclusion of the Den Uyl lecture Buiter gave in Amsterdam on 15 December 2008 (emphasis added). Print it out and stick it to the door of your fridge. It’s one of the best accounts we’ve read of the brave new world will be ushered in by the recent financial

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In February 1995, the U.S. economy was in great shape. The 1990-92 recession had been over for a couple of years, the Federal Reserve was beginning to ease interest rates, the Clinton administration was beginning to make progress on sorting out the United States’ modest long-term budget problem and there was this new thing called the Internet that looked as though it might bring some exciting new possibilities.

In February 1995, the U.S. economy was in great shape. The 1990-92 recession had been over for a couple of years, the Federal Reserve was beginning to ease interest rates, the Clinton administration was beginning to make progress on sorting out the United States’ modest long-term budget problem and there was this new thing called the Internet that looked as though it might bring some exciting new possibilities.

The stock market, too, was strong, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average

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For those interested in making the most of these difficult times check out the above site for the most comprehensive database of natural resource companies (gold/silver/uranium/copper/zinc/diamond mining; oil and gas operations; etc.) with warrants trading on the Canadian and U.S. stock exchanges.

This article is a follow-up to my recent piece on “America’s Financial Oligarchy” which was a synopsis of Simon Johnson’s “The Quiet Coup” on how the financial industry has effectively captured our government. It is an edit and review of a lengthy 231-page report prepared in March 2009 by the Consumer Education Foundation (see wallstreetwatch.org/reports/sold_out.pdf) on how, over the years, the ‘Money Industry’ as they refer to the financial oligarchy, sold out America to gain such control. Like Simon’s article the Consumer Education report deserves much more exposure than it will receive in its original format and hence my effort to distill it into a 3-page summary, …

Many years ago, when Dad and I used to look at official data and analysis, we knew they were flawed. So we developed our own. That’s how we figured out that the capital of savings and loans was grossly overstated and that thousands of S&Ls were headed for a massive bust. Our awareness of the flaws was also a key factor in helping us warn consumers prior to the failures of giant insurance companies during the 1990s. (See the review of our work by U.S. Government Accountability Office GAO.) It was critical to helping us warn you of nearly every major financial failure in the debt crisis that began more than two years ago. (See my blog for our forecast track record.) Plus, it’s one of the main ...