What will Paulson say?   Dollar remains well bid…   How long for Safe Haven buyers?   G-20 Schmee 20! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Well… Nothing has changed since I left you last Wednesday. The awful economic data just keeps piling on, and the dollar gets bid up on safe haven purchases. We did see the Eurozone and Japan announce that they are in a recession… Chris was kind enough to leave me the following, so here’s some more Chris….

“The dollar weakened slightly after the US Industrial production numbers showed a rebound in October. The 1.3% monthly gain sounds great, but it followed September’s drop of 3.7% due to the Gulf Coast hurricanes. After adjusting for the effect of the hurricanes and a strike at Boeing, output dropped .7 percent during each of the past two months. The trend continues to be very weak, and the recession which currently grips the US is now expected

Currency Volatility!  Trading Theme creeps back!  ADP indicates a bad Jobs Jamboree…  Putting on my thinking cap…  And Now… Today’s Pfennig!Well… What a volatile day in the currencies yesterday (Wednesday)! WOW! Running up and down the dial, all day long! At one point yesterday morning, the euro looked to be in the driver’s seat, ooh, ooh, ooh ooh, driver’s seat, yeah… Stop it Chuck, this is supposed to be a serious commentary! Yeah right! Well, at least seriousness is sprinkled in from time to time, eh? Anyway… What I was getting at before slipping off into a song by Sniff-n-The Tears, the euro was moving higher and higher, and was making the 1.29 and 1.30 handles

U.S. stocks soar!  Currencies rally!  Consumer Confidence at an all-time low!  Getting off the bench! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Well… The trading theme remained in place yesterday, but this time it was reversed. For those of you new to class, or any of you who have been playing horse hooky, the trading theme that has gripped the markets since August is: The deeper, darker, and more dangerous the U.S. economy and financial meltdown, including the credit market’s locked status, the dollar gets bought… If there is any sign of light to all this mess, the dollar gets sold, for whenever the markets get their minds off the mess, they are reminded of awful fundamentals for the dollar.

So…

Knowledge of the country weights in the emerging and developed markets indices can be helpful in specifying allocations within the equity portion of a portfolio.

For those clients who wish to allocate primarily on a country basis (as opposed to a sector basis, for example), our general philosophy is to begin the design process from the starting point of world market capitalization, then deviate from there as appropriate per client.

More specifically, we recommend placing at least 50% of equity assets in broad index funds in proportion to world market capitalization. Then, depending on your degree of aggressiveness and your confidence in your assessment of markets, placing up to 50% of equity assets in regional or country funds with anywhere from minor to massive overweights or underweights.

In order to make a conscious overweight or underweight decision, you need to know the neutral weights.

The major weight categories, US (proxy VTI), non-US developed …